5-2 Minnesota DFL gerrymander
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  5-2 Minnesota DFL gerrymander
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Author Topic: 5-2 Minnesota DFL gerrymander  (Read 497 times)
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
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« on: May 01, 2020, 04:43:11 PM »



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bagelman
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« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2020, 04:49:39 PM »

Nifty. Link?

Would Collin Peterson have a chance of defending the 6th, in the unlikely event he tries in 2022?
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Storr
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« Reply #2 on: May 01, 2020, 04:51:49 PM »

07 is just too horrendously ugly for me to be okay with.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #3 on: May 01, 2020, 04:58:16 PM »

Nifty. Link?

Would Collin Peterson have a chance of defending the 6th, in the unlikely event he tries in 2022?

Thats a whole 12 points redder than the current district so no.
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BRTD
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« Reply #4 on: May 01, 2020, 05:01:06 PM »

07 is just too horrendously ugly for me to be okay with.

It's either that or a third R seat.
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BRTD
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« Reply #5 on: May 01, 2020, 05:16:08 PM »

Honestly the 4th is the ugliest and worst seat from a CoI perspective. You could at least argue the 7th is a Lake Superior/St. Croix River CoI.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #6 on: May 01, 2020, 05:18:39 PM »
« Edited: May 01, 2020, 05:23:05 PM by lfromnj »

07 is just too horrendously ugly for me to be okay with.

It's either that or a third R seat.

BTW if you think Peterson survives 2020 why not


This moves it to Trump 59.5 and Clinton 33.5 or like 5 points bluer than his current district.

Obama even won it in 08 Tongue
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BRTD
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« Reply #7 on: May 01, 2020, 05:35:48 PM »

07 is just too horrendously ugly for me to be okay with.

It's either that or a third R seat.

BTW if you think Peterson survives 2020 why not


This moves it to Trump 59.5 and Clinton 33.5 or like 5 points bluer than his current district.

Obama even won it in 08 Tongue

Peterson is too old to really care about though even if he wasn't so right-wing.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #8 on: May 01, 2020, 05:50:09 PM »

07 is just too horrendously ugly for me to be okay with.

It's either that or a third R seat.

BTW if you think Peterson survives 2020 why not


This moves it to Trump 59.5 and Clinton 33.5 or like 5 points bluer than his current district.

Obama even won it in 08 Tongue

Peterson is too old to really care about though even if he wasn't so right-wing.


True but if he isn't retiring it doesn't cost you anything, all I did here was switch counties between your two red sinks, its a free chance
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BRTD
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« Reply #9 on: May 01, 2020, 09:37:20 PM »

So I redid the 7th to add Bemidji and the Red Lake Reservation and lost some exurban territory. That pushed all the DFL office numbers up about a point.

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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #10 on: May 01, 2020, 10:13:44 PM »

If you're going to gerrymander like that, why leave one very strongly Democratic district? Pair Minneapolis with some super-Republican areas instead and get that seat to D+10 or something and use some of the swing areas to shore up the other Democratic districts instead of reaching them out to hard Republican areas.
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BRTD
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« Reply #11 on: May 01, 2020, 10:15:34 PM »

If you're going to gerrymander like that, why leave one very strongly Democratic district? Pair Minneapolis with some super-Republican areas instead and get that seat to D+10 or something.
That's exactly what I did.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #12 on: May 01, 2020, 10:28:46 PM »

If you're going to gerrymander like that, why leave one very strongly Democratic district? Pair Minneapolis with some super-Republican areas instead and get that seat to D+10 or something.
That's exactly what I did.

Southern Anoka isn't super-Republican. It's barely more than evenly split. That's why you have a 69% Clinton district! Put more/all of Anoka in with St. Paul and stretch the Minneapolis district out further towards St. Cloud, then maybe you can pull some of the Democratic St. Paul suburbs into other districts to shore them up, too.
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« Reply #13 on: May 02, 2020, 01:09:03 AM »

I unpacked MN-5 a bit and thus brought MN-04 above 57% Hillary of the two party vote.

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politicallefty
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« Reply #14 on: May 02, 2020, 07:25:22 AM »

I had a similar partial map a couple months ago:

Minnesota probably depends somewhat on whether or not Democrats get total control over redistricting. That probably depends on whether or not Democrats can win back the MN Senate. It has one of the stranger terms, with elections in the 0-2-6 years, so there was no opportunity for a big win in 2018 (like the massive win Democrats had in the MN House).

Either way, I think the current MN-07 is done (and there does seem to be the expectation that one way or the other Colin Peterson will not be running in 2022 anyway, either through defeat or winning one last term). Like most, I expect MN-08 to move west to the ND border, taking in the northern third of the state. That could actually pull it a couple points to the left if drawn right, but the trendlines are very bad. After that, the outstate districts basically draw themselves. If Dems have total control, I think they try lock down the current four districts they have around MSP and maybe tinker around the edges in the outstate districts.

I don't think Democrats would ever try to attempt a 5-2 map unless they somehow won back MN-01 or MN-08 this year (the latter being a much further reach than the former). Even then, it's going to be a monstrosity. I might give it a try soon, but it'd have to involve separating Duluth from the more Republican western areas of the Iron Range and sending it down into the MSP area. A district that runs from the Duluth area and runs down along the Wisconsin border taking in Washington County and ending in Rochester would be almost exactly even between Clinton and Trump. Short of and still possibly including a number of tentacles, that'd leave a contiguous region in MSP stretching to Mankato and St. Cloud at roughly 59-60% two-party vote for Clinton to divide among 4 districts.

I was thinking about something like this:


It was just a rough draft so not even close to perfected or anything of the sort (not to mention dividing the state into 7 parts based on the 2010 Census). It's just to get a visual. The blue district is 1 district that's about 50-50 Clinton-Trump. The yellow area is roughly equal to 4/7 of the population, and close to 60% Clinton two-party share. The purple is about 2 districts that voted just over 2-1 Trump over Clinton. If Dems have full power over the pen, I think they should absolutely go for what I'm showing here. It's not 5-2, more like 4D-2R-1, but I like the D odds in the blue seat. If Nashville is facing a pizza slice, Democrats in other states need to be aggressive and that could and should include Minnesota.

It looks like we had a similar idea in combining the Iron Range with Washington County and parts southeastern MN. I have a tendency to try to keep my gerrymanders somewhat cleaner looking whenever possible, hence combining the Iron Range with Rochester.
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BRTD
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« Reply #15 on: May 02, 2020, 12:32:59 PM »

So I revised it a bit further, unpacked MN-05 a bit more, and attached the Mankato tail to the third instead of the second. Now the second was able to take in another tail from Rochester to Austin and all of Bloomington, while losing Prior Lake (heavily Republican exurb.)




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they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
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« Reply #16 on: May 02, 2020, 12:33:55 PM »

On a side note the unpacking of MN-05 here means that Ilhan Omar might not be happy because while even she can't be beaten in a Hillary around 65% district, she would be more vulnerable in the primary especially as even the Democrats in the added more conservative areas aren't going to be prone to her. However the answer to the question of "Will legislative insiders give a sh!t about Ilhan Omar?" is definitely "No".
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