In terms of the poll in the OP, I vote Likely Parson. That is, I think Parson likely will win the GOP primary by a margin narrower than Galloway will win the Democratic primary. State Rep. Jim Neely and Saundra McDowell will probably take so many votes away from Parson in the primary that he will likely be under 75%, while Galloway will sweep her primary with a win greater than 75%. Then for the general election, I predict that Parson will likely win by a margin similar to Eric Greitens four years ago -- less than 6% margin.
Is there any reason to limit the discussion in this thread to just the gubernatorial race? I don't think so.
In the Lt. Gov's race, appointed incumbent Mike Kehoe will certainly win a full term, outperforming Parson by several points. The Dems who are running are nobodies. I recognize one of the names as a guy who has run for an office before, somewhere, but lost. I don't recognize the other name at all.
In the Secretary of State's race, incumbent Jay Ashcroft will very clearly win re-election by a landslide. The Dem who is running is another nobody.
In the Attorney General's race, two more nobodies are running for the Democratic nomination, and both very likely to lose by landslides in the general, so appointed incumbent Eric Schmitt will also outperform Parson. Schmitt won the Treasurer's race four years ago by a landslide, against a pretty credible opponent, so he will likely win another landslide.
I think the only race that will be potentially as close as the gubernatorial race will be for Treasurer. The appointed incumbent,
Scott Fitzpatrick, a former state rep from SW Missouri, is untested as a statewide candidate, and has never run against a Democrat before. His Democrat opponent this year is former state rep
Vicki Englund, a more formidable candidate for a statewide race than the Dems running for Lt. Gov., SoS, and AG. So the Treasurer's race I rate as just lean Republican.
In the state Senate, there are four interesting and potentially close races among the seventeen seats that are up for grabs. I foresee the Democrats gaining one more seat, maintaining their holds on districts 1 and 17 (the only seats they currently hold but could potentially lose), and picking up district 19 thanks to
Judy Baker likely winning narrowly against incumbent
Caleb Rowden. There is also going to be a closer race than usual in district 15, with incumbent
Andrew Koenig facing a strong challenge from
Deb Lavender. Districts 1, 15, 17, and 19 are definitely the ones to watch this November.
And in the state House, I can predict Democrats winning two or three more seats too, most likely in St. Louis suburbs. Potentially winnable seats for the Democrats include districts 65, 94, 106, and maybe one of the seats in Jefferson County.
Poll
