GA- Cygnal (GOP Internal) Trump +1

[GeorgiaModerate]

Actualy a good poll for Trump, cygnal is a great pollster. And if Trump leads Biden now when his polling is terrible across the board, it just shows that Dems can't win here and should focus elsewhere.

Do you understand what a margin of error is?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Vindication for RFKfan! I'm still going to continue being bearish on this state though, but perhaps I will be surprised.

[bilaps]

Actualy a good poll for Trump, cygnal is a great pollster. And if Trump leads Biden now when his polling is terrible across the board, it just shows that Dems can't win here and should focus elsewhere.

Do you understand what a margin of error is?

Please tell me. Does it mean Trump could be ahead by 6?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Actualy a good poll for Trump, cygnal is a great pollster. And if Trump leads Biden now when his polling is terrible across the board, it just shows that Dems can't win here and should focus elsewhere.

Do you understand what a margin of error is?

Please tell me. Does it mean Trump could be ahead by 6?

That is within the range of possible outcomes.  The poll results are Trump 45%, Biden 44%, with a margin of error of +/- 4%.  This applies to each candidate’s support, not to the margin between them.  So with good methodology (which we’ll assume to be the case, since Cygnal is a good pollster) then 95% of the time, this result would mean that the actual levels of support among the voter population are:

Trump: 41-49%
Biden: 40-48%

Which yields possible margins in the range of Trump+9 to Biden+7.  With such a large overlap of possible outcomes, it’s really overstating the case to say that "Trump is leading in Georgia" based on this poll.  It would be more realistic to say "it’s close".

Having said that, I do think Trump has a small advantage here and is more likely than not to win the state in November.  But the key word there is small; it’s certainly close enough that the state is in play, and a Biden win wouldn’t a huge shock.

[Anna Komnene]

LMFAO why would they release this? Trump +1 in a GOP internal looks horrible.

Probably the same reason Perdue was doomsaying about the election recently. To spook their supporters into donating/volunteering and to try to get ambivalent Trump-leaners back in the fold by telling them the Demoncrats are going to win.

[Xing]

Yeah, clearly less likely to flip than IA/OH.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Rather difficult to get excited about a poll where Biden has a lower % than Hillary's final result.

[MT Treasurer]

You don’t even need the 2018 results to tell that this is a competitive state. GA GOP's alarm bells should have started to ring at the very latest when Clinton came within five points of winning the state and did three percentage points better than Obama.

[jamestroll]

You don’t even need the 2018 results to tell that this is a competitive state. GA GOP's alarm bells should have started to ring at the very latest when Clinton came within five points of winning the state and did three percentage points better than Obama.

Trends are real... essentially. Normally we do not take a single trend map but 2016 was a different case for sure.

Though for 2020 I still believe that PA and MI are more likely to go Democratic than Georgia. Wisconsin or GA very close call.

[GeorgiaModerate]

You don’t even need the 2018 results to tell that this is a competitive state. GA GOP's alarm bells should have started to ring at the very latest when Clinton came within five points of winning the state and did three percentage points better than Obama.

Trends are real... essentially. Normally we do not take a single trend map but 2016 was a different case for sure.

Though for 2020 I still believe that PA and MI are more likely to go Democratic than Georgia. Wisconsin or GA very close call.

I think GA is in play, but further down the list.  IMO, this is the order of likelihood to flip.  Above the line are the states that I think would flip if the election was held today.

MI
PA
AZ
WI
FL
NC
----------
GA
OH
TX
IA

[We Live in Black and White]

Jesus H.

[here2view]

If I had to bet for Georgia going forward:

2020: Trump wins by 2 points, Perdue by 5, and Collins by 1

2022: Democrats win Governorship and Senate seat (Collins)

2024: Democrat wins Georgia in the presidential race

[Pulaski]

Georgia has to be an absolute priority for Dems this year; two Senate races and a chance to demonstrate the effectiveness of a grassroots operation that can overcome Kemp's efforts to suppress votes. Heavy, heavy, heavy investment required.

[Badger]

Actualy a good poll for Trump, cygnal is a great pollster. And if Trump leads Biden now when his polling is terrible across the board, it just shows that Dems can't win here and should focus elsewhere.

Do you understand what a margin of error is?

Or for that matter, an internal poll?