GA- Cygnal (GOP Internal) Trump +1

[Rookie Yinzer]

Trump 45%
Biden 44%

Trump and Biden are in a statistical tie in the race for president, with Trump at 45% and Biden at 44%. Only about 5% of Georgians are undecided, and another 6% back a third-party candidate.

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/internal-gop-poll-points-troubling-signs-for-georgia-republicans/hb6wfmQ7sQSkuHKXiipZdN/amp.html?__twitter_impression=true

[Landslide Lyndon]

Titanium R.

[wbrocks67]

Trump +1 in a GOP internal? oof

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

in b4 "45% Dem ceiling in GA", "fool's gold", or "maybe 2024, 2020 is too soon"

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Not bad for a poll commissioned by the GOP Speaker of the House. Kemp’s scoring low marks (before he even announced he was re-opening the state) and Ossoff only down 6 on Purdue.

[tagimaucia]

It amuses me that there are GOP internals basically showing Georgia tied, yet every time a public Texas or North Carolina poll shows a dead heat or tiny Biden lead (which is what you would expect to see in a good number of polls if Trump was leading Georgia by 1), there are people protesting with "JUNK POLL!" and trying to unskew/nitpick the crosstabs to death

As an aside, when are people going to get that crosstabs/subsamples have massive margins of error, and unless you have a poll with an utterly gigantic sample, it should actually be *more* of a red flag if they look totally pristine as opposed to having some aspects that seem off?

[slothdem]

Didn't a blue avi post the other day that the number of Republican base voters is greater than the Democrats' ceiling in the state? Like that's definitely true in Mississippi and maybe even South Carolina, but folks, Georgia's not that.

[tagimaucia]

I'm too lazy to find the exact numbers, but a massive, massive number of both <25 and African American voters have registered to vote in Georgia since 2016 (I think like half a million for both, although obviously those two groups overlap and I'm not sure how much).  Trump won the state by a bit more than 200k. Those numbers alone should make anyone thinking about making an overly confident pronouncement about what's going to happen in the state in November pause imo.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm too lazy to find the exact numbers, but a massive, massive number of both <25 and African American voters have registered to vote in Georgia since 2016 (I think like half a million for both, although obviously those two groups overlap and I'm not sure how much).  Trump won the state by a bit more than 200k. Those numbers alone should make anyone thinking about making an overly confident pronouncement about what's going to happen in the state in November pause imo.

Regarding the young voter increase, keep in mind that in 2016 Georgia enacted automatic voter registration when getting a driver's license.  So new drivers, who will be overwhelmingly young, are now being registered automatically.  This doesn't necessarily mean they'll be likely to vote (although obviously AVR is a good thing).

[Pollster]

About in line with our tracker for all three races, though we usually see Collins a bit higher than where this article says he is.

[Politician]

Trump is going to lose GA.

[ProudModerate2]

Wow, Georgia might be in play this time around.
Would like to see more polls though.

[GeorgiaModerate]

About in line with our tracker for all three races, though we usually see Collins a bit higher than where this article says he is.

Who do you see advancing to the runoff with him?

[skbl17]

Obviously yet another sign that Georgia is poised to be highly competitive this year; probably tilt Trump, but highly competitive nonetheless. Of course, as far as Trump is concerned it doesn't matter if he wins GA by 3 points or 3 votes as long as those juicy 16 electoral votes stay in his column.

However, I agree with this:

Would like to see more polls though.

[President Johnson]

I think the reward for targeting Georgia might be higher than Ohio or Texas. Not in terms of electoral votes, but in likelyhood to flip. If these numbers keep up, Trump is in a pretty deep hole.

[Mr. Illini]

LMFAO why would they release this? Trump +1 in a GOP internal looks horrible.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump has collapsed in the polls, its assumed Biden will be next Prez even if Senator RobJohnson releases the Hunter Biden report and the sexual allegations, just like Trump weathered storm in 2016

[Brittain33]

LMFAO why would they release this? Trump +1 in a GOP internal looks horrible.

Presumably they were polling for a different race and included a close presidential race to demonstrate credibility.

[MillennialModerate]

Do NOT let this fool anyone.

As I said before, even if Biden has a great night - Dems have very little shot in GA

PRES - 20%
SEN - 1%
SEN•S - 10%

[GeorgiaModerate]

LMFAO why would they release this? Trump +1 in a GOP internal looks horrible.

Presumably they were polling for a different race and included a close presidential race to demonstrate credibility.

According to the Political Insider column in the AJC, it was leaked by the camp of House Speaker David Ralston, who is an ally of Doug Collins and not a close ally of Brian Kemp.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Do NOT let this fool anyone.

As I said before, even if Biden has a great night - Dems have very little shot in GA

PRES - 20%
SEN - 1%
SEN•S - 10%

We've heard this same sad song before. This state is competitive and fortunately the DNC is treating it as such by including it in its 2020 Battleground program.

[tagimaucia]

Here's the actual poll if anyone cares

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6880530/20426-GHRT-GA-Toplines.pdf

[pbrower2a]

Weak result for Trump from a Republican internal poll. I wouldn't use it unless it contradicted something more flattering to Trump -- I am consistent on that on internal polls. (OK, if an internal Democratic poll shows Trump up 20 in North Dakota I would show that).

Georgia is in play, and there are signs of an electoral collapse for the President. For example, such states as Kansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi are closer than usual for a Presidential race. I could accept Louisiana because Biden is a devout Catholic and might thus win back significant votes from a large white Catholic population in Louisiana (Cajuns, largely) that swung away from the Democratic Party about twenty years ago. Louisiana also has a fast-growing Latino population (something of a surprise before I saw some Katrina coverage on Telemundo).

But all in all it is performance and behavior -- and Trump is erratic in the extreme. Such hurts him and the GOP just about everywhere.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Weak result for Trump from a Republican internal poll. I wouldn't use it unless it contradicted something more flattering to Trump -- I am consistent on that on internal polls. (OK, if an internal Democratic poll shows Trump up 20 in North Dakota I would show that).

Georgia is in play, and there are signs of an electoral collapse for the President. For example, such states as Kansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi are closer than usual for a Presidential race. I could accept Louisiana because Biden is a devout Catholic and might thus win back significant votes from a large white Catholic population in Louisiana (Cajuns, largely) that swung away from the Democratic Party about twenty years ago. Louisiana also has a fast-growing Latino population (something of a surprise before I saw some Katrina coverage on Telemundo).

But all in all it is performance and behavior -- and Trump is erratic in the extreme. Such hurts him and the GOP just about everywhere.   

KS, SC,OH, GA, TX, NC and AZ are wave insurance states and MS and LA arent voting D

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Trump +1 in a GOP internal? oof

Uncle Joe is up 2-3 points in GA.