Why current trends won’t last past 2028 (user search)
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  Why current trends won’t last past 2028 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Why current trends won’t last past 2028  (Read 2302 times)
lfromnj
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« on: May 01, 2020, 03:59:53 PM »
« edited: May 01, 2020, 04:12:53 PM by lfromnj »

OSR
You forgot about the Senate
Lets say Ds win 2/4 seats in NC or FL
Lets say they also win 4/5 remaining seats in AZ,TX,GA. Thats +6 D
Now for the D losses
Ohio,MT,WV = -3 instantly.
WI,PA,MI,,MN lets say R's win 4 or 5 out of 6 seats here.
NH,ME another -2 or -3
And in NV,CT,DE,RI lets say Rs win 2 or 3 seats out of 8 D seats.
This would be atleast a net +5 gain for the GOP if trends continue like this.(assume CO and AL already flip)

So both parties are equally locked out of government in an aspect, can't say how the house will look, but probably tilting D here ?

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lfromnj
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« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2020, 11:54:01 PM »

If Republicans lose 2020, 2024, and maybe 2028 they will have no choice but to change strategy. Personally I don't see it happen. McConnell has appointed people onto the court like crazy for a reason.

There are still many tricks they can use to prevent this scenario from happening. They can purge voter rolls, limit early voting, reduce the number of polling stations in urban areas. Implement tougher voter ID laws and close down DMVs in counties in the black belt and along the Rio Grande. Although a lot of that depends on if Roberts can repeal the VRA. If that is done I think if Republicans regain their supermajorities in TX, GA, and NC in a possible Biden midterm in 2022 then assuming they loose in 2024 they could possibly get a District Method plan on the ballot in a 2026 midterm. Assuming 2026 is in line with 2006 and 2014 they may be able to get majorities. This will essentially cut in half whatever Democrats win in TX and GA allowing them to go on the offensive in states like DE, CT, RI, and FL.

And what about the Senate?
Don't the Democrats need to win the senate too, they have to change their strategies too.
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