Why current trends won’t last past 2028

[OSR stands with Israel]

The reason is even if you take trends to their limit and say GOP makes the Midwest bar IL solid R and turns CT RI DE NH ME all R whole TX AZ GA go D this is how the map would look like

While with 2010s allocation of EV this is a win for the GOP , with 2020s allocation it’s most certainly a defeat as well .


So Current Trends are unsustainable in the long run

[Non Swing Voter]

Yes and some of those states probably wouldn't even trend (or trend enough) to be Republican.  Connecticut for instance.  Yes a bunch of white working class towns are trending Republican but this is being offset by suburban Fairfield County (which is the only growing part of the state).  It's also a diverse state.  It's like 30%+ minority already and growing.  Delaware would probably follow a similar pattern. 

But yes, the GOP is going to have to retool.  It could lose huge population centers when it was winning the suburbs, but it can't lose big cities and suburbs and just try to offset that with bigger and bigger margins in the far out exurbs and rural areas.  The math doesn't work. 

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Actually, in the 2020's, that should be a 271-267 win for the GOP, but as was mentioned, CT and DE just aren't flipping which makes that 277-261 Dem, if the GOP can somehow get Rhode Island and increasingly Twin-Cities-centric Minnesota. If Puerto Rico becomes a state, the math gets even harder. Clearly, winning Texas or Georgia is the only path forward for the GOP, although the one-directional trends in those states makes that a heavy lift, and Dems can still win NC, FL, MN, MI, PA, MN, RI, and NH in this scenario. Anyway, if TX, AZ, and GA do become unwinnable for the GOP, I really have no idea how they get to 270, although someone will get through eventually. Perhaps with Nevada and Vermont?

[Nyvin]

If the assumption is "Large cities, diverse areas, and college towns VS everything else"  then states like CT, DE, FL, MI, and MN probably will never become solid R,  they'll probably be the new era's swing states if anything.   

That basically leaves the GOP trading AZ, GA, and TX for PA, WI, ME, NH, and maybe RI.

Post-reapportionment, that works out to the GOP losing 69 EV's and gaining 40 based on current predictions.   

That would give Democrats 271 EV's in "safe" states post-reapportionment.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Actually, in the 2020's, that should be a 271-267 win for the GOP, but as was mentioned, CT and DE just aren't flipping which makes that 277-261 Dem, if the GOP can somehow get Rhode Island and increasingly Twin-Cities-centric Minnesota. If Puerto Rico becomes a state, the math gets even harder. Clearly, winning Texas or Georgia is the only path forward for the GOP, although the one-directional trends in those states makes that a heavy lift, and Dems can still win NC, FL, MN, MI, PA, MN, RI, and NH in this scenario. Anyway, if TX, AZ, and GA do become unwinnable for the GOP, I really have no idea how they get to 270, although someone will get through eventually. Perhaps with Nevada and Vermont?

The GOP will have to retool and there are 3 things it must do in such a retool:


- Move left on Healthcare : They should embrace a compulsory private system except with strict price regulations on providers and pharmaceuticals. So basically more of a Bismarck style system just without a Public Option

- Move to the left on Climate Change : Again you don’t need to support carbon taxes for this but be in favor of green infrastructure

- Actually do something on Housing

[Lechasseur]

Actually, in the 2020's, that should be a 271-267 win for the GOP, but as was mentioned, CT and DE just aren't flipping which makes that 277-261 Dem, if the GOP can somehow get Rhode Island and increasingly Twin-Cities-centric Minnesota. If Puerto Rico becomes a state, the math gets even harder. Clearly, winning Texas or Georgia is the only path forward for the GOP, although the one-directional trends in those states makes that a heavy lift, and Dems can still win NC, FL, MN, MI, PA, MN, RI, and NH in this scenario. Anyway, if TX, AZ, and GA do become unwinnable for the GOP, I really have no idea how they get to 270, although someone will get through eventually. Perhaps with Nevada and Vermont?

The GOP will have to retool and there are 3 things it must do in such a retool:


- Move left on Healthcare : They should embrace a compulsory private system except with strict price regulations on providers and pharmaceuticals. So basically more of a Bismarck style system just without a Public Option

- Move to the left on Climate Change : Again you don’t need to support carbon taxes for this but be in favor of green infrastructure

- Actually do something on Housing

Agreed

[OSR stands with Israel]

Actually, in the 2020's, that should be a 271-267 win for the GOP, but as was mentioned, CT and DE just aren't flipping which makes that 277-261 Dem, if the GOP can somehow get Rhode Island and increasingly Twin-Cities-centric Minnesota. If Puerto Rico becomes a state, the math gets even harder. Clearly, winning Texas or Georgia is the only path forward for the GOP, although the one-directional trends in those states makes that a heavy lift, and Dems can still win NC, FL, MN, MI, PA, MN, RI, and NH in this scenario. Anyway, if TX, AZ, and GA do become unwinnable for the GOP, I really have no idea how they get to 270, although someone will get through eventually. Perhaps with Nevada and Vermont?

The GOP will have to retool and there are 3 things it must do in such a retool:


- Move left on Healthcare : They should embrace a compulsory private system except with strict price regulations on providers and pharmaceuticals. So basically more of a Bismarck style system just without a Public Option

- Move to the left on Climate Change : Again you don’t need to support carbon taxes for this but be in favor of green infrastructure

- Actually do something on Housing

Agreed

It will happen but how it happens is the choice the GOP makes.

Either :

-  The GOP realizes this and adapts on these issues voluntarily

- The GOP will be dragged much more left than this on these issues and a whole bunch of others kicking and screaming due to election defeats after defeats.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

So you made this thread simply for the purpose of saying “this is why the GOP will never allow Texas to become a swing state or blue state, tell me how I’m wrong”

[lfromnj]

OSR
You forgot about the Senate
Lets say Ds win 2/4 seats in NC or FL
Lets say they also win 4/5 remaining seats in AZ,TX,GA. Thats +6 D
Now for the D losses
Ohio,MT,WV = -3 instantly.
WI,PA,MI,,MN lets say R's win 4 or 5 out of 6 seats here.
NH,ME another -2 or -3
And in NV,CT,DE,RI lets say Rs win 2 or 3 seats out of 8 D seats.
This would be atleast a net +5 gain for the GOP if trends continue like this.(assume CO and AL already flip)

So both parties are equally locked out of government in an aspect, can't say how the house will look, but probably tilting D here ?

[Lechasseur]

Actually, in the 2020's, that should be a 271-267 win for the GOP, but as was mentioned, CT and DE just aren't flipping which makes that 277-261 Dem, if the GOP can somehow get Rhode Island and increasingly Twin-Cities-centric Minnesota. If Puerto Rico becomes a state, the math gets even harder. Clearly, winning Texas or Georgia is the only path forward for the GOP, although the one-directional trends in those states makes that a heavy lift, and Dems can still win NC, FL, MN, MI, PA, MN, RI, and NH in this scenario. Anyway, if TX, AZ, and GA do become unwinnable for the GOP, I really have no idea how they get to 270, although someone will get through eventually. Perhaps with Nevada and Vermont?

The GOP will have to retool and there are 3 things it must do in such a retool:


- Move left on Healthcare : They should embrace a compulsory private system except with strict price regulations on providers and pharmaceuticals. So basically more of a Bismarck style system just without a Public Option

- Move to the left on Climate Change : Again you don’t need to support carbon taxes for this but be in favor of green infrastructure

- Actually do something on Housing

Agreed

It will happen but how it happens is the choice the GOP makes.

Either :

-  The GOP realizes this and adapts on these issues voluntarily

- The GOP will be dragged much more left than this on these issues and a whole bunch of others kicking and screaming due to election defeats after defeats.

Yes agreed

[Roronoa D. Law]

If Republicans lose 2020, 2024, and maybe 2028 they will have no choice but to change strategy. Personally I don't see it happen. McConnell has appointed people onto the court like crazy for a reason.

There are still many tricks they can use to prevent this scenario from happening. They can purge voter rolls, limit early voting, reduce the number of polling stations in urban areas. Implement tougher voter ID laws and close down DMVs in counties in the black belt and along the Rio Grande. Although a lot of that depends on if Roberts can repeal the VRA. If that is done I think if Republicans regain their supermajorities in TX, GA, and NC in a possible Biden midterm in 2022 then assuming they loose in 2024 they could possibly get a District Method plan on the ballot in a 2026 midterm. Assuming 2026 is in line with 2006 and 2014 they may be able to get majorities. This will essentially cut in half whatever Democrats win in TX and GA allowing them to go on the offensive in states like DE, CT, RI, and FL.

[lfromnj]

If Republicans lose 2020, 2024, and maybe 2028 they will have no choice but to change strategy. Personally I don't see it happen. McConnell has appointed people onto the court like crazy for a reason.

There are still many tricks they can use to prevent this scenario from happening. They can purge voter rolls, limit early voting, reduce the number of polling stations in urban areas. Implement tougher voter ID laws and close down DMVs in counties in the black belt and along the Rio Grande. Although a lot of that depends on if Roberts can repeal the VRA. If that is done I think if Republicans regain their supermajorities in TX, GA, and NC in a possible Biden midterm in 2022 then assuming they loose in 2024 they could possibly get a District Method plan on the ballot in a 2026 midterm. Assuming 2026 is in line with 2006 and 2014 they may be able to get majorities. This will essentially cut in half whatever Democrats win in TX and GA allowing them to go on the offensive in states like DE, CT, RI, and FL.

And what about the Senate?
Don't the Democrats need to win the senate too, they have to change their strategies too.

[Politician]

Yeah, eventually the GOP is going to either have to keep those D-trending states in their column or have to start winning states such as IL and NY. A platform change is definitely necessary in the long run.

[Asenath Waite]

Interestingly this sort of electoral map vaguely resembles one from the either the third party system or mid-twentieth century.

[Skill and Chance]

They will eventually break out of this by competing well enough in IL and the NYC suburbs. 

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Seems to me the obvious thing for the GOP to do is try and appeal more to black voters. If they got the numbers to 70-30 D or something, then they flip back Georgia and maybe Texas. Also, LOL at suggesting NY and IL could flip back before GA or TX. I mean, I'm bullish on trends and everything, but the numbers just aren't there. Clinton basically tied among whites in NY, IL, CT, and MN, so the GOP would have to win back whites and/or actually flip minorities, which just isn't happening.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Seems to me the obvious thing for the GOP to do is try and appeal more to black voters. If they got the numbers to 70-30 D or something, then they flip back Georgia and maybe Texas. Also, LOL at suggesting NY and IL could flip back before GA or TX. I mean, I'm bullish on trends and everything, but the numbers just aren't there. Clinton basically tied among whites in NY, IL, CT, and MN, so the GOP would have to win back whites and/or actually flip minorities, which just isn't happening.

The GOP actually could make inroads with all demographic groups if they moderated on healthcare, housing and infrastructure actually and if they did that they wouldn't need to use divisive cultural issues as much to get WWC to vote for them.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

The GOP will have to retool and there are 3 things it must do in such a retool:


- Move left on Healthcare : They should embrace a compulsory private system except with strict price regulations on providers and pharmaceuticals. So basically more of a Bismarck style system just without a Public Option

- Move to the left on Climate Change : Again you don’t need to support carbon taxes for this but be in favor of green infrastructure

- Actually do something on Housing

The GOP needs to talk about college debt and college tuition reform.  I'm 26, and to me it's  disgusting about how the GOP totally dismisses how much worse things are today compared to the 80s or even the 90s and the concerns of younger people generally.

As far as healthcare (a subject I'm no means an expert in) I think a medicare expansion that working and lower-middle class people can buy into is the simplest option.  Obviously, the PPACA is a garbage law but it's never going to get repealed (also reason 3,728 why John McCain was trash)

The GOP of the future should have a moderate approach to climate change and increase income tax rates on people making more than 500K a year. Perhaps make dividend gains taxable if it's a wealthy person's only source of income or more than a certain percentage of your income.  After the election Steve Bannon actually wanted the top marginal rate increased to "somewhere in the 40s".



As far as the states go I don't see Delaware flipping at all and even Connecticut is overly optimistic, but I think the GOP have a great shot at flipping Vermont by 2028-32.

Basically, the GOP must hold on to TX and keep NC and FL as pure swing states.  That's far easier than trying to flip Illinois, Oregon or New Jersey.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If Republicans lose 2020, 2024, and maybe 2028 they will have no choice but to change strategy. Personally I don't see it happen. McConnell has appointed people onto the court like crazy for a reason.

There are still many tricks they can use to prevent this scenario from happening. They can purge voter rolls, limit early voting, reduce the number of polling stations in urban areas. Implement tougher voter ID laws and close down DMVs in counties in the black belt and along the Rio Grande. Although a lot of that depends on if Roberts can repeal the VRA. If that is done I think if Republicans regain their supermajorities in TX, GA, and NC in a possible Biden midterm in 2022 then assuming they loose in 2024 they could possibly get a District Method plan on the ballot in a 2026 midterm. Assuming 2026 is in line with 2006 and 2014 they may be able to get majorities. This will essentially cut in half whatever Democrats win in TX and GA allowing them to go on the offensive in states like DE, CT, RI, and FL.

And what about the Senate?
Don't the Democrats need to win the senate too, they have to change their strategies too.

Republicans have a long history of under performing in the Senate compared to expectations and this has allowed the Democrats to get and keep majorities they should not have been able to hold. Part of this is precisely because of the Republican agenda on things like health care. Trump can win Ohio by double digits on trade and then Sherrod Brown can turn around and win it by emphasizing healthcare.

A local good ole boy running on Medicaid and minimum wage will do better then a Koch brothers backed shill in a Senate race even as the state is going hella Republican because of trade, immigration, abortion and/or guns.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Seems to me the obvious thing for the GOP to do is try and appeal more to black voters. If they got the numbers to 70-30 D or something, then they flip back Georgia and maybe Texas. Also, LOL at suggesting NY and IL could flip back before GA or TX. I mean, I'm bullish on trends and everything, but the numbers just aren't there. Clinton basically tied among whites in NY, IL, CT, and MN, so the GOP would have to win back whites and/or actually flip minorities, which just isn't happening.

The GOP actually could make inroads with all demographic groups if they moderated on healthcare, housing and infrastructure actually and if they did that they wouldn't need to use divisive cultural issues as much to get WWC to vote for them.

And the Democrats could similarly make inroads into Appalachia if they ditched their guns and environmental planks of the platform, but pretending like either of those things is ever going to happen is wishful thinking at best. So don't get your hops up on the GOP changing anything about their economic/healthcare agenda anytime soon when Trump of all people couldn't manage to do it despite campaigning explicitly on those things.

The Republican elite has no interest in any of those things ever happening, which is why it will never happen. Republicans won't go against their donors.

[Skill and Chance]

If Republicans lose 2020, 2024, and maybe 2028 they will have no choice but to change strategy. Personally I don't see it happen. McConnell has appointed people onto the court like crazy for a reason.

There are still many tricks they can use to prevent this scenario from happening. They can purge voter rolls, limit early voting, reduce the number of polling stations in urban areas. Implement tougher voter ID laws and close down DMVs in counties in the black belt and along the Rio Grande. Although a lot of that depends on if Roberts can repeal the VRA. If that is done I think if Republicans regain their supermajorities in TX, GA, and NC in a possible Biden midterm in 2022 then assuming they loose in 2024 they could possibly get a District Method plan on the ballot in a 2026 midterm. Assuming 2026 is in line with 2006 and 2014 they may be able to get majorities. This will essentially cut in half whatever Democrats win in TX and GA allowing them to go on the offensive in states like DE, CT, RI, and FL.

And what about the Senate?
Don't the Democrats need to win the senate too, they have to change their strategies too.

Republicans have a long history of under performing in the Senate compared to expectations and this has allowed the Democrats to get and keep majorities they should not have been able to hold. Part of this is precisely because of the Republican agenda on things like health care. Trump can win Ohio by double digits on trade and then Sherrod Brown can turn around and win it by emphasizing healthcare.

A local good ole boy running on Medicaid and minimum wage will do better then a Koch brothers backed shill in a Senate race even as the state is going hella Republican because of trade, immigration, abortion and/or guns.

This is true for now, but eventually they will catch on and start running Hawleys throughout the Rust Belt.  I really do think the senate situation soon becomes untenable for Democrats (probably the next time there is an R wave with Class I) and forces their hand on pursuing the West over the South.  I think Dems will get Georgia anyway because Atlanta is moving toward them so fast, but it looks likely to me that Republicans will get to 20+% of the black vote pretty soon.  That basically seals the deal outside of Georgia, Virginia and Texas.

On the other hand, what happened in Colorado seems to be spreading to AZ and MT, and there is serious potential to flip the Mormon vote down the line as Bush era social issues fade from view.

I'm envisioning something like this for a close Dem win in say 2040.

If I'm wrong and the black vote doesn't shift much but the Latino vote does, we might eventually get something like this:

One important takeaway from this is that Republicans don't have much of a future without a clear edge in Florida.

 

[OSR stands with Israel]

Seems to me the obvious thing for the GOP to do is try and appeal more to black voters. If they got the numbers to 70-30 D or something, then they flip back Georgia and maybe Texas. Also, LOL at suggesting NY and IL could flip back before GA or TX. I mean, I'm bullish on trends and everything, but the numbers just aren't there. Clinton basically tied among whites in NY, IL, CT, and MN, so the GOP would have to win back whites and/or actually flip minorities, which just isn't happening.

The GOP actually could make inroads with all demographic groups if they moderated on healthcare, housing and infrastructure actually and if they did that they wouldn't need to use divisive cultural issues as much to get WWC to vote for them.

And the Democrats could similarly make inroads into Appalachia if they ditched their guns and environmental planks of the platform, but pretending like either of those things is ever going to happen is wishful thinking at best. So don't get your hops up on the GOP changing anything about their economic/healthcare agenda anytime soon when Trump of all people couldn't manage to do it despite campaigning explicitly on those things.

The Republican elite has no interest in any of those things ever happening, which is why it will never happen. Republicans won't go against their donors.

Well they will get their one way or the other , either they adapt voluntarily or they will be dragged even more left kicking and screaming due to election losses after elections losses

[Stockdale for Veep]

The GOP will not pivot. Following the first election with the above maps, they would start picketing "abolish the Electoral College" overnight.

[dw93]

From the time Trump won in 2016 through late 2018 or early 2019 I envisioned a scenario where Trump loses and the Democrats having a string of three or four consecutive Presidential wins after forces the GOP to moderate in the 2030s (as was the case for them in the 1950s and the Democrats in the 1990s). Now, I just don't see it. Even if they lose this year, they'll probably be given one more chance, either in 2024 or 2028 to unleash hell on the country that makes the last two months look like a walk in the park by comparison. It'll be at that point that the Dems finally get enough strength to start pushing the GOP to the center, but it'll come at a huge cost.

[RINO Tom]

In general (as far as I can tell, looking at it historically), the only *trends* that seem to last past 3-4 cycles are due to demographic change (e.g., an area where the dominant coalition slowly has their numbers eroded to the point where they can't outvote a more monolithic minority coalition and themselves become the minority ... this could be generational displacement or a county diversifying, but it doesn't involve a majority of the "original Democrats" or "original Republicans" fleeing the party but rather slowly becoming outnumbered or dying off).  The major exceptions seem to be:

1) Black voters slowly opening up to the idea of Democrats after the Civil War until the Great Depression flipped them and the Great Society era cemented them as solid Democrats.

2) Southern White voters opening up the idea of the GOP during the 1940s and 1950s and the political instability of the 1960s and 1970s giving a majority of them a clear home in the Republican Party.

3) "Minority" groups' children and grandchildren starting to assimilate and no longer feel a communal desire to *vote as a minority*, making the party that represents the more "entrenched" classes of society (historically, the GOP) become an option.  This can first be seen with European immigrants and then Catholics and then arguably with your "Whiter" Hispanic voters, like Cubans and those of mostly only European/Iberian ancestry.  In effect, the voters just start to feel "White" or the past equivalent (i.e., Anglo-Saxon --> just "White" or Protestant --> just "Christian").

The first two seem incredibly unique to me, and I maintain it would be foolish to assume current or future realignments follow that slow, top-down pattern over prolonged periods of times.  Both of these groups have such antagonistic and unique political histories that involve one party starting out as a complete non-starter (i.e., voting against who you are) and a very, very slow transformation to the point where both parties seemed okay picks and then eventually a complete and total flip in preferences.  Given the, uhm, emotional nature of the Civil War and Civil Rights Movement, I do not believe these "swaps" should serve as a model.

"Groups" like the "college educated" or "suburbanites" are just not monolithic enough to have voting cohesion over decades.  There is nothing intrinsic tying these people together, nothing emotionally stirring that they are all striving for that will bind them together through thick and thin.  Trump's Presidency and the GOP's ensuing double-down on anti-intellectualism is the linchpin of the current Democratic margins among these voters, and the margins still aren't even that good! - certainly nothing approaching "Black voters."  I'm extremely skeptical that this coalition can hang together for 20+ years past Trump.  I mean, Reagan's unifying message of halting crime and lowering taxes couldn't even hold up, and those are much more motivating coalition formulas than "the GOP is unsavory," if you ask me.

I predict we will likely see more of the same throughout the 2020s, but (what I assume to be) inevitable Democratic control of all three branches of government will create the uncomfortable situation of the Democratic Party's vision being put on display, and they will be forced to brand themselves in a more polarizing way than "the adult in the room party."  They'll have to DO something.  I think this provides the GOP with a much needed reset and allows them to return to their historical ideological "home" that gives them the best electoral success - the "check on the Democrats" platform.  I actually think it's hard for Republicans to look like a serious party when they've not been in the minority long enough.  Given that I imagine this will involve a rather inoffensive "let's scale back all of these programs a bit!!" message, the natural low hanging fruit will be affluent voters, many of whom are in suburbs.  I'm not saying Romney-Clinton voters are coming streaming back!  Most of them are likely gone.  However, some of them will, and I believe the next generation of "college educated professionals" will not have the baked-in negative stereotype of the GOP that their parents did ... just as Millennials didn't view Democrats as that weird, non-Reagan party.