Why current trends won’t last past 2028

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Actually, in the 2020's, that should be a 271-267 win for the GOP, but as was mentioned, CT and DE just aren't flipping which makes that 277-261 Dem, if the GOP can somehow get Rhode Island and increasingly Twin-Cities-centric Minnesota. If Puerto Rico becomes a state, the math gets even harder. Clearly, winning Texas or Georgia is the only path forward for the GOP, although the one-directional trends in those states makes that a heavy lift, and Dems can still win NC, FL, MN, MI, PA, MN, RI, and NH in this scenario. Anyway, if TX, AZ, and GA do become unwinnable for the GOP, I really have no idea how they get to 270, although someone will get through eventually. Perhaps with Nevada and Vermont?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Seems to me the obvious thing for the GOP to do is try and appeal more to black voters. If they got the numbers to 70-30 D or something, then they flip back Georgia and maybe Texas. Also, LOL at suggesting NY and IL could flip back before GA or TX. I mean, I'm bullish on trends and everything, but the numbers just aren't there. Clinton basically tied among whites in NY, IL, CT, and MN, so the GOP would have to win back whites and/or actually flip minorities, which just isn't happening.