Why current trends won’t last past 2028

[OSR stands with Israel]

The reason is even if you take trends to their limit and say GOP makes the Midwest bar IL solid R and turns CT RI DE NH ME all R whole TX AZ GA go D this is how the map would look like

While with 2010s allocation of EV this is a win for the GOP , with 2020s allocation it’s most certainly a defeat as well .


So Current Trends are unsustainable in the long run

[OSR stands with Israel]

Actually, in the 2020's, that should be a 271-267 win for the GOP, but as was mentioned, CT and DE just aren't flipping which makes that 277-261 Dem, if the GOP can somehow get Rhode Island and increasingly Twin-Cities-centric Minnesota. If Puerto Rico becomes a state, the math gets even harder. Clearly, winning Texas or Georgia is the only path forward for the GOP, although the one-directional trends in those states makes that a heavy lift, and Dems can still win NC, FL, MN, MI, PA, MN, RI, and NH in this scenario. Anyway, if TX, AZ, and GA do become unwinnable for the GOP, I really have no idea how they get to 270, although someone will get through eventually. Perhaps with Nevada and Vermont?

The GOP will have to retool and there are 3 things it must do in such a retool:


- Move left on Healthcare : They should embrace a compulsory private system except with strict price regulations on providers and pharmaceuticals. So basically more of a Bismarck style system just without a Public Option

- Move to the left on Climate Change : Again you don’t need to support carbon taxes for this but be in favor of green infrastructure

- Actually do something on Housing

[OSR stands with Israel]

Actually, in the 2020's, that should be a 271-267 win for the GOP, but as was mentioned, CT and DE just aren't flipping which makes that 277-261 Dem, if the GOP can somehow get Rhode Island and increasingly Twin-Cities-centric Minnesota. If Puerto Rico becomes a state, the math gets even harder. Clearly, winning Texas or Georgia is the only path forward for the GOP, although the one-directional trends in those states makes that a heavy lift, and Dems can still win NC, FL, MN, MI, PA, MN, RI, and NH in this scenario. Anyway, if TX, AZ, and GA do become unwinnable for the GOP, I really have no idea how they get to 270, although someone will get through eventually. Perhaps with Nevada and Vermont?

The GOP will have to retool and there are 3 things it must do in such a retool:


- Move left on Healthcare : They should embrace a compulsory private system except with strict price regulations on providers and pharmaceuticals. So basically more of a Bismarck style system just without a Public Option

- Move to the left on Climate Change : Again you don’t need to support carbon taxes for this but be in favor of green infrastructure

- Actually do something on Housing

Agreed

It will happen but how it happens is the choice the GOP makes.

Either :

-  The GOP realizes this and adapts on these issues voluntarily

- The GOP will be dragged much more left than this on these issues and a whole bunch of others kicking and screaming due to election defeats after defeats.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Seems to me the obvious thing for the GOP to do is try and appeal more to black voters. If they got the numbers to 70-30 D or something, then they flip back Georgia and maybe Texas. Also, LOL at suggesting NY and IL could flip back before GA or TX. I mean, I'm bullish on trends and everything, but the numbers just aren't there. Clinton basically tied among whites in NY, IL, CT, and MN, so the GOP would have to win back whites and/or actually flip minorities, which just isn't happening.

The GOP actually could make inroads with all demographic groups if they moderated on healthcare, housing and infrastructure actually and if they did that they wouldn't need to use divisive cultural issues as much to get WWC to vote for them.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Seems to me the obvious thing for the GOP to do is try and appeal more to black voters. If they got the numbers to 70-30 D or something, then they flip back Georgia and maybe Texas. Also, LOL at suggesting NY and IL could flip back before GA or TX. I mean, I'm bullish on trends and everything, but the numbers just aren't there. Clinton basically tied among whites in NY, IL, CT, and MN, so the GOP would have to win back whites and/or actually flip minorities, which just isn't happening.

The GOP actually could make inroads with all demographic groups if they moderated on healthcare, housing and infrastructure actually and if they did that they wouldn't need to use divisive cultural issues as much to get WWC to vote for them.

And the Democrats could similarly make inroads into Appalachia if they ditched their guns and environmental planks of the platform, but pretending like either of those things is ever going to happen is wishful thinking at best. So don't get your hops up on the GOP changing anything about their economic/healthcare agenda anytime soon when Trump of all people couldn't manage to do it despite campaigning explicitly on those things.

The Republican elite has no interest in any of those things ever happening, which is why it will never happen. Republicans won't go against their donors.

Well they will get their one way or the other , either they adapt voluntarily or they will be dragged even more left kicking and screaming due to election losses after elections losses