If we get the mass death that COVID-19 can deliver (maximal reckless and political failure) we will see the valuation of many things from real estate to precious metals plummeting. We would see businesses carefully tuned to the high current world population (such as utilities and fossil fuels) becoming shaky, and their share prices suggesting such.
The possibility of a securities crash remains. I can't understand why the securities market had a short-term (and it looks short-term; I certainly wouldn't be buying in now) recovery. By this time next year the DJIA is more likely to be at 13 K than at 30 K.
I expect Americans to change their consumer behavior. They are finding out what they most cherish and what they can live without. What they find that they can do without they will sacrifice -- likely to pay off debts and start saving again. Behaviors that people abandon in large numbers will go under.
I would think that precious metals would have an inverse relationship to the stocks and bonds - in that if the market as a whole is down then precious metals would be up? I am probably mistaken but I thought that was the general trend? Otherwise I agree with, or at least favor, your overall assessment.
Gold is up year to date, but both silver and platinum are down, which just goes to show how much demand for those two metals are affected by their industrial uses.
All three crashed mid-March, but quickly recovered somewhat.
Still, if your reason for holding precious metals is to be as a contrarian hedge to equities, gold is the one that has the lowest correlation to equities.
So you're telling me if a bunch of people die, I'll be able to buy up property? That's a good idea, hopefully this whole thing peters out, but if it doesn't I know what I'm doing.
