Do you think we will enter a period of deflation?
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  Do you think we will enter a period of deflation?
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Author Topic: Do you think we will enter a period of deflation?  (Read 1653 times)
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CrabCake
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« on: April 29, 2020, 05:30:04 PM »

?
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #1 on: April 29, 2020, 06:18:10 PM »

We could if there's a long-period of mass unemployment and reduced aggregate demand, but sovereign governments appear willing to step-in and infuse trillions in stimulus to prevent deflationary pressure.  I'd call it unlikely. 
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #2 on: April 29, 2020, 10:35:16 PM »

Define "period". There will inevitably be deflation for at least a quarter or two in a recession of this depth. There were deflationary quarters at the bottom of the last recession as well, IIRC. But deflation lasting beyond 2020 seems unlikely in the U.S., maybe somewhat more likely for the Eurozone.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #3 on: May 02, 2020, 09:20:06 AM »

You better believe it.

I am seeing businesses, institutions and individuals asking for money because they are struggling.

But no one will have spare money to inject, and Government bailouts will run dry soon.

I just dont see Trump and all the Kings men putting Humpty back together again with the same polished economic conditions for at least 6-12 months.

If two quarters of consecutive negative growth is termed a recession, then i am thinking four quarters of negative growth is the likely outcome in this instance.

Beating this quarter in 12 months time will be a sinch.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4 on: May 02, 2020, 02:35:56 PM »

If we get the mass death that COVID-19 can deliver (maximal reckless and political failure) we will see the valuation of many things from real estate to precious metals plummeting. We would see businesses carefully tuned to the high current world population (such as utilities and fossil fuels) becoming shaky, and their share prices suggesting such.

The possibility of a securities crash remains. I can't understand why the securities market had a short-term (and it looks short-term; I certainly wouldn't be buying in now) recovery. By this time next year the DJIA is more likely to be at 13 K than at 30 K.

I expect Americans to change their consumer behavior. They are finding out what they most cherish and what they can live without. What they find that they can do without they will sacrifice -- likely to pay off debts and start saving again. Behaviors that people abandon in large numbers will go under.   
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cris01us
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« Reply #5 on: May 03, 2020, 07:45:30 AM »

If we get the mass death that COVID-19 can deliver (maximal reckless and political failure) we will see the valuation of many things from real estate to precious metals plummeting. We would see businesses carefully tuned to the high current world population (such as utilities and fossil fuels) becoming shaky, and their share prices suggesting such.

The possibility of a securities crash remains. I can't understand why the securities market had a short-term (and it looks short-term; I certainly wouldn't be buying in now) recovery. By this time next year the DJIA is more likely to be at 13 K than at 30 K.

I expect Americans to change their consumer behavior. They are finding out what they most cherish and what they can live without. What they find that they can do without they will sacrifice -- likely to pay off debts and start saving again. Behaviors that people abandon in large numbers will go under.   

I would think that precious metals would have an inverse relationship to the stocks and bonds - in that if the market as a whole is down then precious metals would be up?  I am probably mistaken but I thought that was the general trend?   Otherwise I agree with, or at least favor, your overall assessment.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #6 on: May 04, 2020, 12:02:18 AM »

If we get the mass death that COVID-19 can deliver (maximal reckless and political failure) we will see the valuation of many things from real estate to precious metals plummeting. We would see businesses carefully tuned to the high current world population (such as utilities and fossil fuels) becoming shaky, and their share prices suggesting such.

The possibility of a securities crash remains. I can't understand why the securities market had a short-term (and it looks short-term; I certainly wouldn't be buying in now) recovery. By this time next year the DJIA is more likely to be at 13 K than at 30 K.

I expect Americans to change their consumer behavior. They are finding out what they most cherish and what they can live without. What they find that they can do without they will sacrifice -- likely to pay off debts and start saving again. Behaviors that people abandon in large numbers will go under.   

I would think that precious metals would have an inverse relationship to the stocks and bonds - in that if the market as a whole is down then precious metals would be up?  I am probably mistaken but I thought that was the general trend?   Otherwise I agree with, or at least favor, your overall assessment.

Gold is up year to date, but both silver and platinum are down, which just goes to show how much demand for those two metals are affected by their industrial uses.

All three crashed mid-March, but quickly recovered somewhat.

Still, if your reason for holding precious metals is to be as a contrarian hedge to equities, gold is the one that has the lowest correlation to equities.
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Orwell
JacksonHitchcock
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« Reply #7 on: May 09, 2020, 12:49:32 AM »

If we get the mass death that COVID-19 can deliver (maximal reckless and political failure) we will see the valuation of many things from real estate to precious metals plummeting. We would see businesses carefully tuned to the high current world population (such as utilities and fossil fuels) becoming shaky, and their share prices suggesting such.

The possibility of a securities crash remains. I can't understand why the securities market had a short-term (and it looks short-term; I certainly wouldn't be buying in now) recovery. By this time next year the DJIA is more likely to be at 13 K than at 30 K.

I expect Americans to change their consumer behavior. They are finding out what they most cherish and what they can live without. What they find that they can do without they will sacrifice -- likely to pay off debts and start saving again. Behaviors that people abandon in large numbers will go under.   

I would think that precious metals would have an inverse relationship to the stocks and bonds - in that if the market as a whole is down then precious metals would be up?  I am probably mistaken but I thought that was the general trend?   Otherwise I agree with, or at least favor, your overall assessment.

Gold is up year to date, but both silver and platinum are down, which just goes to show how much demand for those two metals are affected by their industrial uses.

All three crashed mid-March, but quickly recovered somewhat.

Still, if your reason for holding precious metals is to be as a contrarian hedge to equities, gold is the one that has the lowest correlation to equities.

So you're telling me if a bunch of people die, I'll be able to buy up property? That's a good idea, hopefully this whole thing peters out, but if it doesn't I know what I'm doing.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #8 on: May 18, 2020, 02:47:59 AM »

If we get the mass death that COVID-19 can deliver (maximal reckless and political failure) we will see the valuation of many things from real estate to precious metals plummeting. We would see businesses carefully tuned to the high current world population (such as utilities and fossil fuels) becoming shaky, and their share prices suggesting such.

The possibility of a securities crash remains. I can't understand why the securities market had a short-term (and it looks short-term; I certainly wouldn't be buying in now) recovery. By this time next year the DJIA is more likely to be at 13 K than at 30 K.

I expect Americans to change their consumer behavior. They are finding out what they most cherish and what they can live without. What they find that they can do without they will sacrifice -- likely to pay off debts and start saving again. Behaviors that people abandon in large numbers will go under.   

I would think that precious metals would have an inverse relationship to the stocks and bonds - in that if the market as a whole is down then precious metals would be up?  I am probably mistaken but I thought that was the general trend?   Otherwise I agree with, or at least favor, your overall assessment.

Gold is up year to date, but both silver and platinum are down, which just goes to show how much demand for those two metals are affected by their industrial uses.

All three crashed mid-March, but quickly recovered somewhat.

Still, if your reason for holding precious metals is to be as a contrarian hedge to equities, gold is the one that has the lowest correlation to equities.

So you're telling me if a bunch of people die, I'll be able to buy up property? That's a good idea, hopefully this whole thing peters out, but if it doesn't I know what I'm doing.

Real property and precious metals are two entirely different classes of assets, and both differ from equities. Not that I think you are interested, as apparently all you care about is making acid remarks that you think are witty for some unknown reason.
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