Los Angeles County redistricting

[I’m not Stu]

Costa takes Merced. Cox takes Fresno. Nunes retires or loses (to Cox or Costa). Does McCarthy take the blue or green Bakersfield district? Is Olbernolte/Bubser in orange? Carbajal takes in LA County too? Who might win CA-47, one of Garden Grove’s two Democratic councilors, Republican Garden Grove mayor Steve Jones, former Fullerton Democratic mayor Doug Chaffee, or Berniecrat Cypress College professor Peter Mathews?

Bakersfield is entirely within the green district, but it's majority Hispanic (not VAP yet). R+5.5

Yes, Olbernolte is in the orange district.

Chaffee probably has the best chance out of those you listed. At D+8 I didn't see a Republican that could win. It's more D than the Santa Ana district.

Why the former Fullerton mayor? Would the Garden Grove councilors or Chaffee likely beat Mathews?

I would actually think either Diedre Nguyen or Sharon Quirk-Silva would probably take it over any of those guys.

You think that either establishment-backed candidates like Quirk-Silva or Nguyen would beat Mathews, the anti-establishment firebrand who ran to Lowenthal’s left?

Yes, California is not very friendly to anti-establishment candidates.

Mathews doesn't even perform well on ratemyprofessor.com

So OC isn’t friendly to anti-establishment ideologues like Humboldt is? Am I correct that Carbajal takes a tiny part of LA County?

[SevenEleven]

Costa takes Merced. Cox takes Fresno. Nunes retires or loses (to Cox or Costa). Does McCarthy take the blue or green Bakersfield district? Is Olbernolte/Bubser in orange? Carbajal takes in LA County too? Who might win CA-47, one of Garden Grove’s two Democratic councilors, Republican Garden Grove mayor Steve Jones, former Fullerton Democratic mayor Doug Chaffee, or Berniecrat Cypress College professor Peter Mathews?

Bakersfield is entirely within the green district, but it's majority Hispanic (not VAP yet). R+5.5

Yes, Olbernolte is in the orange district.

Chaffee probably has the best chance out of those you listed. At D+8 I didn't see a Republican that could win. It's more D than the Santa Ana district.

Why the former Fullerton mayor? Would the Garden Grove councilors or Chaffee likely beat Mathews?

I would actually think either Diedre Nguyen or Sharon Quirk-Silva would probably take it over any of those guys.

You think that either establishment-backed candidates like Quirk-Silva or Nguyen would beat Mathews, the anti-establishment firebrand who ran to Lowenthal’s left?

Yes, California is not very friendly to anti-establishment candidates.

Mathews doesn't even perform well on ratemyprofessor.com

So OC isn’t friendly to anti-establishment ideologues like Humboldt is? Am I correct that Carbajal takes a tiny part of LA County?

Carbajal doesnt get any of LA county, counties are only split when absolutely necessary for population equality. For example, only one Orange County district extends outside of the OC borders.

[I’m not Stu]

This map appears to have Catalina Island in CA-24. Is this correct?

[SevenEleven]

This map appears to have Catalina Island in CA-24. Is this correct?

You're right, but I could easily move them to Ted Lieu's district. I wasn't too concerned with the islands haha

[I’m not Stu]

This map appears to have Catalina Island in CA-24. Is this correct?

You're right, but I could easily move them to Ted Lieu's district. I wasn't too concerned with the islands haha

Catalina Island is in LA County. Is McCarthy in blue or green?

[SevenEleven]

This map appears to have Catalina Island in CA-24. Is this correct?

You're right, but I could easily move them to Ted Lieu's district. I wasn't too concerned with the islands haha

Catalina Island is in LA County. Is McCarthy in blue or green?

McCarthy is from Bakersfield, so green. Should be an EVEN PVI by the end of the map's tenure.

[I’m not Stu]

Is McClintock in blue? What are the demographics for CA-47?

[SevenEleven]

Is McClintock in blue? What are the demographics for CA-47?

CA-47 is 37% Latino, 35% Asian, 25% White and contrary to what I said earlier, only D+5.5.

Tom McClintock's district is further north. The blue district is mostly Paul Cook's territory, but it siphons outlying rural areas of the Central Valley. I suppose Nunes could run there but it doesn't overlap too much with any of his current district or political base.

This is in large part due to the amount of growth that has occurred in the Inland Empire.

[I’m not Stu]

Is McClintock in blue? What are the demographics for CA-47?

CA-47 is 37% Latino, 35% Asian, 25% White and contrary to what I said earlier, only D+5.5.

Tom McClintock's district is further north. The blue district is mostly Paul Cook's territory, but it siphons outlying rural areas of the Central Valley. I suppose Nunes could run there but it doesn't overlap too much with any of his current district or political base.

This is in large part due to the amount of growth that has occurred in the Inland Empire.

What is CA-47 in VAP?

[SevenEleven]

Is McClintock in blue? What are the demographics for CA-47?

CA-47 is 37% Latino, 35% Asian, 25% White and contrary to what I said earlier, only D+5.5.

Tom McClintock's district is further north. The blue district is mostly Paul Cook's territory, but it siphons outlying rural areas of the Central Valley. I suppose Nunes could run there but it doesn't overlap too much with any of his current district or political base.

This is in large part due to the amount of growth that has occurred in the Inland Empire.

What is CA-47 in VAP?

33% Asian, 32% Latino, 29% White

[I’m not Stu]

Is McClintock in blue? What are the demographics for CA-47?

CA-47 is 37% Latino, 35% Asian, 25% White and contrary to what I said earlier, only D+5.5.

Tom McClintock's district is further north. The blue district is mostly Paul Cook's territory, but it siphons outlying rural areas of the Central Valley. I suppose Nunes could run there but it doesn't overlap too much with any of his current district or political base.

This is in large part due to the amount of growth that has occurred in the Inland Empire.

What is CA-47 in VAP?

33% Asian, 32% Latino, 29% White

What is the PVI for orange and blue each, taken from CA-08?

[SevenEleven]

Is McClintock in blue? What are the demographics for CA-47?

CA-47 is 37% Latino, 35% Asian, 25% White and contrary to what I said earlier, only D+5.5.

Tom McClintock's district is further north. The blue district is mostly Paul Cook's territory, but it siphons outlying rural areas of the Central Valley. I suppose Nunes could run there but it doesn't overlap too much with any of his current district or political base.

This is in large part due to the amount of growth that has occurred in the Inland Empire.

What is CA-47 in VAP?

33% Asian, 32% Latino, 29% White

What is the PVI for orange and blue each, taken from CA-08?

Orange is R+4, Blue is R+13

[I’m not Stu]

Is McClintock in blue? What are the demographics for CA-47?

CA-47 is 37% Latino, 35% Asian, 25% White and contrary to what I said earlier, only D+5.5.

Tom McClintock's district is further north. The blue district is mostly Paul Cook's territory, but it siphons outlying rural areas of the Central Valley. I suppose Nunes could run there but it doesn't overlap too much with any of his current district or political base.

This is in large part due to the amount of growth that has occurred in the Inland Empire.

What is CA-47 in VAP?

33% Asian, 32% Latino, 29% White

What is the PVI for orange and blue each, taken from CA-08?

Orange is R+4, Blue is R+13

Maybe Olbernolte takes blue? Maybe Bubser takes orange?

[SevenEleven]

Is McClintock in blue? What are the demographics for CA-47?

CA-47 is 37% Latino, 35% Asian, 25% White and contrary to what I said earlier, only D+5.5.

Tom McClintock's district is further north. The blue district is mostly Paul Cook's territory, but it siphons outlying rural areas of the Central Valley. I suppose Nunes could run there but it doesn't overlap too much with any of his current district or political base.

This is in large part due to the amount of growth that has occurred in the Inland Empire.

What is CA-47 in VAP?

33% Asian, 32% Latino, 29% White

What is the PVI for orange and blue each, taken from CA-08?

Orange is R+4, Blue is R+13

Maybe Olbernolte takes blue? Maybe Bubser takes orange?

Olbernolte lives in the orange and Bubser lives deep into the blue. The blue district is very safe for GOP though. You can't even see where Bubser lives in the blue district on the map I posted

[I’m not Stu]

Is McClintock in blue? What are the demographics for CA-47?

CA-47 is 37% Latino, 35% Asian, 25% White and contrary to what I said earlier, only D+5.5.

Tom McClintock's district is further north. The blue district is mostly Paul Cook's territory, but it siphons outlying rural areas of the Central Valley. I suppose Nunes could run there but it doesn't overlap too much with any of his current district or political base.

This is in large part due to the amount of growth that has occurred in the Inland Empire.

What is CA-47 in VAP?

33% Asian, 32% Latino, 29% White

What is the PVI for orange and blue each, taken from CA-08?

Orange is R+4, Blue is R+13

Maybe Olbernolte takes blue? Maybe Bubser takes orange?

Olbernolte lives in the orange and Bubser lives deep into the blue. The blue district is very safe for GOP though. You can't even see where Bubser lives in the blue district on the map I posted

Where do Marge Doyle and Rita Ramirez live?

[SevenEleven]

Is McClintock in blue? What are the demographics for CA-47?

CA-47 is 37% Latino, 35% Asian, 25% White and contrary to what I said earlier, only D+5.5.

Tom McClintock's district is further north. The blue district is mostly Paul Cook's territory, but it siphons outlying rural areas of the Central Valley. I suppose Nunes could run there but it doesn't overlap too much with any of his current district or political base.

This is in large part due to the amount of growth that has occurred in the Inland Empire.

What is CA-47 in VAP?

33% Asian, 32% Latino, 29% White

What is the PVI for orange and blue each, taken from CA-08?

Orange is R+4, Blue is R+13

Maybe Olbernolte takes blue? Maybe Bubser takes orange?

Olbernolte lives in the orange and Bubser lives deep into the blue. The blue district is very safe for GOP though. You can't even see where Bubser lives in the blue district on the map I posted

Where do Marge Doyle and Rita Ramirez live?

Ramirez could run in the orange or blue, probably orange vs Olbernolte

I don't know about Marge Doyle. Maybe Nunes runs in the blue district since it has Tulare?

[I’m not Stu]

I think Ramirez runs in orange, since it’s winnable for Democrats. What is the PVI for CA-49 (Escondido)?

[SevenEleven]

I think Ramirez runs in orange, since it’s winnable for Democrats. What is the PVI for CA-49 (Escondido)?

R+7

[I’m not Stu]

I think Ramirez runs in orange, since it’s winnable for Democrats. What is the PVI for CA-49 (Escondido)?

R+7

Where does Mike Levin go?

[SevenEleven]

I think Ramirez runs in orange, since it’s winnable for Democrats. What is the PVI for CA-49 (Escondido)?

R+7

Where does Mike Levin go?

Well, Escondido is actually CA-50. So that one will go to Issa.

Levin stays in CA-49, which is the red district.

[I’m not Stu]

Where does Peters go?

[SevenEleven]

Where does Peters go?

CA-52, purple.

[I’m not Stu]

Where does Peters go?

CA-52, purple.

Is Gomez/Jacobs in green?

[SevenEleven]

Where does Peters go?

CA-52, purple.

Is Gomez/Jacobs in green?

Yup, that one is all San Diego.

[I’m not Stu]

Is Panetta in the SLO district?