Los Angeles County redistricting

[I’m not Stu]

The Gateway Cities are losing population. LA County likely loses a district, even with a 53 district map. CA-47 might become an OC coastal district centered in Garden Grove. Long Beach might end up being mostly in CA-44. What will happen to Lowenthal and Barragan?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Well, this is the district map I have. Ignore the questionable district numbering.



CA-01: Cerritos, Cypress, Garden Grove. Open.
CA-02: Santa Ana, Anaheim, Fullerton. Lou Correa.
CA-02: Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, Laguna Niguel. Harley Rouda
CA-04: Yorba Linda, Irvine, Lake Forest. Katie Porter vs Gil Cisneros.
CA-15: Long Beach, Carson, San Pedro. Alan Lowenthal vs Nanette Barragan.
CA-16: Torrance, Hawthorne, Manhattan Beach. Ted Lieu.
CA-17: Hollywood, Beverly Hills, Culver City. Karen Bass.
CA-18: Inglewood, Willowbrook, Compton. Maxine Waters.
CA-19: Downtown, Koreatown, Boyle Heights. Jimmy Gomez.
CA-20: Huntington Park, Downey, Bellflower. Lucille Roybal-Allard.
CA-21: Glendale, Eagle Rock, Pasadena. Adam Schiff.
CA-22: Pico Rivera, Norwalk, Whittier. Linda Sanchez.
CA-23: Monterey Park, El Monte, Arcadia. Judy Chu.
CA-24: Covina, Pomona, Diamond Bar. Open?
CA-25: Santa Monica, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley. Julia Brownley.
CA-26: Northridge, Chatsworth, Sylmar. Brad Sherman.
CA-27: Van Nuys, North Hollywood, Burbank. Tony Cardenas.

The non-safe seats:
CA-01. This is an Asian opportunity seat, and I'd be curious to see who wins it.
CA-04. Porter would obviously win against Cisneros, but I'd expect Cisneros to carpetbag in CA-24 which arguably has more of his base in it anyway.
CA-15. This is, of course, your original matchup. I have no idea if Lowenthal or Barragan would win, and I'd expect it would be very competitive. Either they challenge each other in a primary or one of them would choose to run for something else entirely (LA County supervisors?). It's worth noting that Lowenthal will be 82 and might just retire and clear a path for Barragan.
CA-24. This area is represented by Grace Napolitano, although she lives some distance away in Norwalk. That said, she will be 85 come 2022 and I'd expect her to retire and let Cisneros run here.

There are a few other things, like Brad Sherman living in Cardenas's district in the new map, and Karen Bass possibly living in Maxine Waters', but I expect them to run in the open districts I assigned them to which contain many of their current voters anyway. Regardless, it looks like Cisneros/Napolitano/Porter and Barragan/Lowenthal will probably be the matchups, with a new district created in Orange County's Asian Belt. You were correct in pinpointing Barragan-Lowenthal as the key matchup from this cut, even though the area that is stagnating the most is along the I-5 corridor in SE LA County. It is convenient, however, that Lowenthal and Napolitano might just retire and clear things up.

[I’m not Stu]

Does Correa win? Would someone like Diedre Nguyen or Steve Jones win CA-01 (really CA-47) to replace Lowenthal ? Would Lowenthal retire and let Barragan take CA-15 (really CA-44)?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Does Correa win?

I'd assume so. Why wouldn't he.

Would someone like Diedre Nguyen or Steve Jones win CA-01 (really CA-47) to replace Lowenthal ? 

I'd expect an Asian Dem would--perhaps Nguyen--but who can really tell at this point?

Would Lowenthal retire and let Barragan take CA-15 (really CA-44)?

Well, I said I think he might, but again, nobody (except Lowenthal) really knows.

[I’m not Stu]

Does Correa win?

I'd assume so. Why wouldn't he.

Would someone like Diedre Nguyen or Steve Jones win CA-01 (really CA-47) to replace Lowenthal ? 

I'd expect an Asian Dem would--perhaps Nguyen--but who can really tell at this point?

Would Lowenthal retire and let Barragan take CA-15 (really CA-44)?

Well, I said I think he might, but again, nobody (except Lowenthal) really knows.

Is Correa popular enough (he seems to be), or are OC Democrats so anti-establishment that he’s vulnerable? Would there be a decent chance of a Nguyen vs. Jones runoff in CA-01 (CA-47)?

[SevenEleven]

Well, this is the district map I have. Ignore the questionable district numbering.



CA-01: Cerritos, Cypress, Garden Grove. Open.
CA-02: Santa Ana, Anaheim, Fullerton. Lou Correa.
CA-02: Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, Laguna Niguel. Harley Rouda
CA-04: Yorba Linda, Irvine, Lake Forest. Katie Porter vs Gil Cisneros.
CA-15: Long Beach, Carson, San Pedro. Alan Lowenthal vs Nanette Barragan.
CA-16: Torrance, Hawthorne, Manhattan Beach. Ted Lieu.
CA-17: Hollywood, Beverly Hills, Culver City. Karen Bass.
CA-18: Inglewood, Willowbrook, Compton. Maxine Waters.
CA-19: Downtown, Koreatown, Boyle Heights. Jimmy Gomez.
CA-20: Huntington Park, Downey, Bellflower. Lucille Roybal-Allard.
CA-21: Glendale, Eagle Rock, Pasadena. Adam Schiff.
CA-22: Pico Rivera, Norwalk, Whittier. Linda Sanchez.
CA-23: Monterey Park, El Monte, Arcadia. Judy Chu.
CA-24: Covina, Pomona, Diamond Bar. Open?
CA-25: Santa Monica, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley. Julia Brownley.
CA-26: Northridge, Chatsworth, Sylmar. Brad Sherman.
CA-27: Van Nuys, North Hollywood, Burbank. Tony Cardenas.

The non-safe seats:
CA-01. This is an Asian opportunity seat, and I'd be curious to see who wins it.
CA-04. Porter would obviously win against Cisneros, but I'd expect Cisneros to carpetbag in CA-24 which arguably has more of his base in it anyway.
CA-15. This is, of course, your original matchup. I have no idea if Lowenthal or Barragan would win, and I'd expect it would be very competitive. Either they challenge each other in a primary or one of them would choose to run for something else entirely (LA County supervisors?). It's worth noting that Lowenthal will be 82 and might just retire and clear a path for Barragan.
CA-24. This area is represented by Grace Napolitano, although she lives some distance away in Norwalk. That said, she will be 85 come 2022 and I'd expect her to retire and let Cisneros run here.

There are a few other things, like Brad Sherman living in Cardenas's district in the new map, and Karen Bass possibly living in Maxine Waters', but I expect them to run in the open districts I assigned them to which contain many of their current voters anyway. Regardless, it looks like Cisneros/Napolitano/Porter and Barragan/Lowenthal will probably be the matchups, with a new district created in Orange County's Asian Belt. You were correct in pinpointing Barragan-Lowenthal as the key matchup from this cut, even though the area that is stagnating the most is along the I-5 corridor in SE LA County. It is convenient, however, that Lowenthal and Napolitano might just retire and clear things up.

There is no need to pack Asians, the commission would be unlikely to do this.

[I’m not Stu]

Well, this is the district map I have. Ignore the questionable district numbering.



CA-01: Cerritos, Cypress, Garden Grove. Open.
CA-02: Santa Ana, Anaheim, Fullerton. Lou Correa.
CA-02: Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, Laguna Niguel. Harley Rouda
CA-04: Yorba Linda, Irvine, Lake Forest. Katie Porter vs Gil Cisneros.
CA-15: Long Beach, Carson, San Pedro. Alan Lowenthal vs Nanette Barragan.
CA-16: Torrance, Hawthorne, Manhattan Beach. Ted Lieu.
CA-17: Hollywood, Beverly Hills, Culver City. Karen Bass.
CA-18: Inglewood, Willowbrook, Compton. Maxine Waters.
CA-19: Downtown, Koreatown, Boyle Heights. Jimmy Gomez.
CA-20: Huntington Park, Downey, Bellflower. Lucille Roybal-Allard.
CA-21: Glendale, Eagle Rock, Pasadena. Adam Schiff.
CA-22: Pico Rivera, Norwalk, Whittier. Linda Sanchez.
CA-23: Monterey Park, El Monte, Arcadia. Judy Chu.
CA-24: Covina, Pomona, Diamond Bar. Open?
CA-25: Santa Monica, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley. Julia Brownley.
CA-26: Northridge, Chatsworth, Sylmar. Brad Sherman.
CA-27: Van Nuys, North Hollywood, Burbank. Tony Cardenas.

The non-safe seats:
CA-01. This is an Asian opportunity seat, and I'd be curious to see who wins it.
CA-04. Porter would obviously win against Cisneros, but I'd expect Cisneros to carpetbag in CA-24 which arguably has more of his base in it anyway.
CA-15. This is, of course, your original matchup. I have no idea if Lowenthal or Barragan would win, and I'd expect it would be very competitive. Either they challenge each other in a primary or one of them would choose to run for something else entirely (LA County supervisors?). It's worth noting that Lowenthal will be 82 and might just retire and clear a path for Barragan.
CA-24. This area is represented by Grace Napolitano, although she lives some distance away in Norwalk. That said, she will be 85 come 2022 and I'd expect her to retire and let Cisneros run here.

There are a few other things, like Brad Sherman living in Cardenas's district in the new map, and Karen Bass possibly living in Maxine Waters', but I expect them to run in the open districts I assigned them to which contain many of their current voters anyway. Regardless, it looks like Cisneros/Napolitano/Porter and Barragan/Lowenthal will probably be the matchups, with a new district created in Orange County's Asian Belt. You were correct in pinpointing Barragan-Lowenthal as the key matchup from this cut, even though the area that is stagnating the most is along the I-5 corridor in SE LA County. It is convenient, however, that Lowenthal and Napolitano might just retire and clear things up.

There is no need to pack Asians, the commission would be unlikely to do this.

What about a coastal OC-based CA-47 centered in Garden Grove (mostly overlapping with AD-72)? It wouldn’t pack Asians. but it could easily elect an Asian candidate. Might the commission do this, or will they try to maximize the number of wealthy white districts?

[SevenEleven]

Well, this is the district map I have. Ignore the questionable district numbering.



CA-01: Cerritos, Cypress, Garden Grove. Open.
CA-02: Santa Ana, Anaheim, Fullerton. Lou Correa.
CA-02: Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, Laguna Niguel. Harley Rouda
CA-04: Yorba Linda, Irvine, Lake Forest. Katie Porter vs Gil Cisneros.
CA-15: Long Beach, Carson, San Pedro. Alan Lowenthal vs Nanette Barragan.
CA-16: Torrance, Hawthorne, Manhattan Beach. Ted Lieu.
CA-17: Hollywood, Beverly Hills, Culver City. Karen Bass.
CA-18: Inglewood, Willowbrook, Compton. Maxine Waters.
CA-19: Downtown, Koreatown, Boyle Heights. Jimmy Gomez.
CA-20: Huntington Park, Downey, Bellflower. Lucille Roybal-Allard.
CA-21: Glendale, Eagle Rock, Pasadena. Adam Schiff.
CA-22: Pico Rivera, Norwalk, Whittier. Linda Sanchez.
CA-23: Monterey Park, El Monte, Arcadia. Judy Chu.
CA-24: Covina, Pomona, Diamond Bar. Open?
CA-25: Santa Monica, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley. Julia Brownley.
CA-26: Northridge, Chatsworth, Sylmar. Brad Sherman.
CA-27: Van Nuys, North Hollywood, Burbank. Tony Cardenas.

The non-safe seats:
CA-01. This is an Asian opportunity seat, and I'd be curious to see who wins it.
CA-04. Porter would obviously win against Cisneros, but I'd expect Cisneros to carpetbag in CA-24 which arguably has more of his base in it anyway.
CA-15. This is, of course, your original matchup. I have no idea if Lowenthal or Barragan would win, and I'd expect it would be very competitive. Either they challenge each other in a primary or one of them would choose to run for something else entirely (LA County supervisors?). It's worth noting that Lowenthal will be 82 and might just retire and clear a path for Barragan.
CA-24. This area is represented by Grace Napolitano, although she lives some distance away in Norwalk. That said, she will be 85 come 2022 and I'd expect her to retire and let Cisneros run here.

There are a few other things, like Brad Sherman living in Cardenas's district in the new map, and Karen Bass possibly living in Maxine Waters', but I expect them to run in the open districts I assigned them to which contain many of their current voters anyway. Regardless, it looks like Cisneros/Napolitano/Porter and Barragan/Lowenthal will probably be the matchups, with a new district created in Orange County's Asian Belt. You were correct in pinpointing Barragan-Lowenthal as the key matchup from this cut, even though the area that is stagnating the most is along the I-5 corridor in SE LA County. It is convenient, however, that Lowenthal and Napolitano might just retire and clear things up.

There is no need to pack Asians, the commission would be unlikely to do this.

What about a coastal OC-based CA-47 centered in Garden Grove (mostly overlapping with AD-72)? It wouldn’t pack Asians. but it could easily elect an Asian candidate. Might the commission do this, or will they try to maximize the number of wealthy white districts?

There's no material difference in the ways that Whites and Asians vote. And wealthy white districts are able to elect Asians fairly easily, such as Ted Lieu. Hell, even Bakersfield has an Asian Mayor and State Rep.

This doesn't mean that the commission won't have a different approach this time, but considering that it didn't happen last time, I expect to see the Asian vote and the black vote split, rather than packed into single districts. Compton and Ladera Heights is not a community of interest outside of the fact that you can find black people there lol.

[I’m not Stu]

Well, this is the district map I have. Ignore the questionable district numbering.



CA-01: Cerritos, Cypress, Garden Grove. Open.
CA-02: Santa Ana, Anaheim, Fullerton. Lou Correa.
CA-02: Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, Laguna Niguel. Harley Rouda
CA-04: Yorba Linda, Irvine, Lake Forest. Katie Porter vs Gil Cisneros.
CA-15: Long Beach, Carson, San Pedro. Alan Lowenthal vs Nanette Barragan.
CA-16: Torrance, Hawthorne, Manhattan Beach. Ted Lieu.
CA-17: Hollywood, Beverly Hills, Culver City. Karen Bass.
CA-18: Inglewood, Willowbrook, Compton. Maxine Waters.
CA-19: Downtown, Koreatown, Boyle Heights. Jimmy Gomez.
CA-20: Huntington Park, Downey, Bellflower. Lucille Roybal-Allard.
CA-21: Glendale, Eagle Rock, Pasadena. Adam Schiff.
CA-22: Pico Rivera, Norwalk, Whittier. Linda Sanchez.
CA-23: Monterey Park, El Monte, Arcadia. Judy Chu.
CA-24: Covina, Pomona, Diamond Bar. Open?
CA-25: Santa Monica, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley. Julia Brownley.
CA-26: Northridge, Chatsworth, Sylmar. Brad Sherman.
CA-27: Van Nuys, North Hollywood, Burbank. Tony Cardenas.

The non-safe seats:
CA-01. This is an Asian opportunity seat, and I'd be curious to see who wins it.
CA-04. Porter would obviously win against Cisneros, but I'd expect Cisneros to carpetbag in CA-24 which arguably has more of his base in it anyway.
CA-15. This is, of course, your original matchup. I have no idea if Lowenthal or Barragan would win, and I'd expect it would be very competitive. Either they challenge each other in a primary or one of them would choose to run for something else entirely (LA County supervisors?). It's worth noting that Lowenthal will be 82 and might just retire and clear a path for Barragan.
CA-24. This area is represented by Grace Napolitano, although she lives some distance away in Norwalk. That said, she will be 85 come 2022 and I'd expect her to retire and let Cisneros run here.

There are a few other things, like Brad Sherman living in Cardenas's district in the new map, and Karen Bass possibly living in Maxine Waters', but I expect them to run in the open districts I assigned them to which contain many of their current voters anyway. Regardless, it looks like Cisneros/Napolitano/Porter and Barragan/Lowenthal will probably be the matchups, with a new district created in Orange County's Asian Belt. You were correct in pinpointing Barragan-Lowenthal as the key matchup from this cut, even though the area that is stagnating the most is along the I-5 corridor in SE LA County. It is convenient, however, that Lowenthal and Napolitano might just retire and clear things up.

There is no need to pack Asians, the commission would be unlikely to do this.

What about a coastal OC-based CA-47 centered in Garden Grove (mostly overlapping with AD-72)? It wouldn’t pack Asians. but it could easily elect an Asian candidate. Might the commission do this, or will they try to maximize the number of wealthy white districts?

There's no material difference in the ways that Whites and Asians vote. And wealthy white districts are able to elect Asians fairly easily, such as Ted Lieu. Hell, even Bakersfield has an Asian Mayor and State Rep.

This doesn't mean that the commission won't have a different approach this time, but considering that it didn't happen last time, I expect to see the Asian vote and the black vote split, rather than packed into single districts. Compton and Ladera Heights is not a community of interest outside of the fact that you can find black people there lol.

Ladera Heights is far outside Barragan’s district and different in income. I think that would be a racial gerrymander. Since CA-47’s OC side is going somewhere else because the Gateway Cities are losing population, where might it go? Where do Long Beach and Carson go?

[SevenEleven]

Well, this is the district map I have. Ignore the questionable district numbering.



CA-01: Cerritos, Cypress, Garden Grove. Open.
CA-02: Santa Ana, Anaheim, Fullerton. Lou Correa.
CA-02: Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, Laguna Niguel. Harley Rouda
CA-04: Yorba Linda, Irvine, Lake Forest. Katie Porter vs Gil Cisneros.
CA-15: Long Beach, Carson, San Pedro. Alan Lowenthal vs Nanette Barragan.
CA-16: Torrance, Hawthorne, Manhattan Beach. Ted Lieu.
CA-17: Hollywood, Beverly Hills, Culver City. Karen Bass.
CA-18: Inglewood, Willowbrook, Compton. Maxine Waters.
CA-19: Downtown, Koreatown, Boyle Heights. Jimmy Gomez.
CA-20: Huntington Park, Downey, Bellflower. Lucille Roybal-Allard.
CA-21: Glendale, Eagle Rock, Pasadena. Adam Schiff.
CA-22: Pico Rivera, Norwalk, Whittier. Linda Sanchez.
CA-23: Monterey Park, El Monte, Arcadia. Judy Chu.
CA-24: Covina, Pomona, Diamond Bar. Open?
CA-25: Santa Monica, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley. Julia Brownley.
CA-26: Northridge, Chatsworth, Sylmar. Brad Sherman.
CA-27: Van Nuys, North Hollywood, Burbank. Tony Cardenas.

The non-safe seats:
CA-01. This is an Asian opportunity seat, and I'd be curious to see who wins it.
CA-04. Porter would obviously win against Cisneros, but I'd expect Cisneros to carpetbag in CA-24 which arguably has more of his base in it anyway.
CA-15. This is, of course, your original matchup. I have no idea if Lowenthal or Barragan would win, and I'd expect it would be very competitive. Either they challenge each other in a primary or one of them would choose to run for something else entirely (LA County supervisors?). It's worth noting that Lowenthal will be 82 and might just retire and clear a path for Barragan.
CA-24. This area is represented by Grace Napolitano, although she lives some distance away in Norwalk. That said, she will be 85 come 2022 and I'd expect her to retire and let Cisneros run here.

There are a few other things, like Brad Sherman living in Cardenas's district in the new map, and Karen Bass possibly living in Maxine Waters', but I expect them to run in the open districts I assigned them to which contain many of their current voters anyway. Regardless, it looks like Cisneros/Napolitano/Porter and Barragan/Lowenthal will probably be the matchups, with a new district created in Orange County's Asian Belt. You were correct in pinpointing Barragan-Lowenthal as the key matchup from this cut, even though the area that is stagnating the most is along the I-5 corridor in SE LA County. It is convenient, however, that Lowenthal and Napolitano might just retire and clear things up.

There is no need to pack Asians, the commission would be unlikely to do this.

What about a coastal OC-based CA-47 centered in Garden Grove (mostly overlapping with AD-72)? It wouldn’t pack Asians. but it could easily elect an Asian candidate. Might the commission do this, or will they try to maximize the number of wealthy white districts?

There's no material difference in the ways that Whites and Asians vote. And wealthy white districts are able to elect Asians fairly easily, such as Ted Lieu. Hell, even Bakersfield has an Asian Mayor and State Rep.

This doesn't mean that the commission won't have a different approach this time, but considering that it didn't happen last time, I expect to see the Asian vote and the black vote split, rather than packed into single districts. Compton and Ladera Heights is not a community of interest outside of the fact that you can find black people there lol.

Ladera Heights is far outside Barragan’s district and different in income. I think that would be a racial gerrymander. Since CA-47’s OC side is going somewhere else because the Gateway Cities are losing population, where might it go? Where do Long Beach and Carson go?

Im referring to the map posted above, not the current districts. My preliminary map has Carson going to Maxine Waters' district. Long Beach has its own district that heads toward Cerritos and Bellflower.

[I’m not Stu]

Well, this is the district map I have. Ignore the questionable district numbering.



CA-01: Cerritos, Cypress, Garden Grove. Open.
CA-02: Santa Ana, Anaheim, Fullerton. Lou Correa.
CA-02: Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, Laguna Niguel. Harley Rouda
CA-04: Yorba Linda, Irvine, Lake Forest. Katie Porter vs Gil Cisneros.
CA-15: Long Beach, Carson, San Pedro. Alan Lowenthal vs Nanette Barragan.
CA-16: Torrance, Hawthorne, Manhattan Beach. Ted Lieu.
CA-17: Hollywood, Beverly Hills, Culver City. Karen Bass.
CA-18: Inglewood, Willowbrook, Compton. Maxine Waters.
CA-19: Downtown, Koreatown, Boyle Heights. Jimmy Gomez.
CA-20: Huntington Park, Downey, Bellflower. Lucille Roybal-Allard.
CA-21: Glendale, Eagle Rock, Pasadena. Adam Schiff.
CA-22: Pico Rivera, Norwalk, Whittier. Linda Sanchez.
CA-23: Monterey Park, El Monte, Arcadia. Judy Chu.
CA-24: Covina, Pomona, Diamond Bar. Open?
CA-25: Santa Monica, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley. Julia Brownley.
CA-26: Northridge, Chatsworth, Sylmar. Brad Sherman.
CA-27: Van Nuys, North Hollywood, Burbank. Tony Cardenas.

The non-safe seats:
CA-01. This is an Asian opportunity seat, and I'd be curious to see who wins it.
CA-04. Porter would obviously win against Cisneros, but I'd expect Cisneros to carpetbag in CA-24 which arguably has more of his base in it anyway.
CA-15. This is, of course, your original matchup. I have no idea if Lowenthal or Barragan would win, and I'd expect it would be very competitive. Either they challenge each other in a primary or one of them would choose to run for something else entirely (LA County supervisors?). It's worth noting that Lowenthal will be 82 and might just retire and clear a path for Barragan.
CA-24. This area is represented by Grace Napolitano, although she lives some distance away in Norwalk. That said, she will be 85 come 2022 and I'd expect her to retire and let Cisneros run here.

There are a few other things, like Brad Sherman living in Cardenas's district in the new map, and Karen Bass possibly living in Maxine Waters', but I expect them to run in the open districts I assigned them to which contain many of their current voters anyway. Regardless, it looks like Cisneros/Napolitano/Porter and Barragan/Lowenthal will probably be the matchups, with a new district created in Orange County's Asian Belt. You were correct in pinpointing Barragan-Lowenthal as the key matchup from this cut, even though the area that is stagnating the most is along the I-5 corridor in SE LA County. It is convenient, however, that Lowenthal and Napolitano might just retire and clear things up.

There is no need to pack Asians, the commission would be unlikely to do this.

What about a coastal OC-based CA-47 centered in Garden Grove (mostly overlapping with AD-72)? It wouldn’t pack Asians. but it could easily elect an Asian candidate. Might the commission do this, or will they try to maximize the number of wealthy white districts?

There's no material difference in the ways that Whites and Asians vote. And wealthy white districts are able to elect Asians fairly easily, such as Ted Lieu. Hell, even Bakersfield has an Asian Mayor and State Rep.

This doesn't mean that the commission won't have a different approach this time, but considering that it didn't happen last time, I expect to see the Asian vote and the black vote split, rather than packed into single districts. Compton and Ladera Heights is not a community of interest outside of the fact that you can find black people there lol.

Ladera Heights is far outside Barragan’s district and different in income. I think that would be a racial gerrymander. Since CA-47’s OC side is going somewhere else because the Gateway Cities are losing population, where might it go? Where do Long Beach and Carson go?

Im referring to the map posted above, not the current districts. My preliminary map has Carson going to Maxine Waters' district. Long Beach has its own district that heads toward Cerritos and Bellflower.

Where would Garden Grove, Cypress, and Westminster go?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Well, this is the district map I have. Ignore the questionable district numbering.



CA-01: Cerritos, Cypress, Garden Grove. Open.
CA-02: Santa Ana, Anaheim, Fullerton. Lou Correa.
CA-02: Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, Laguna Niguel. Harley Rouda
CA-04: Yorba Linda, Irvine, Lake Forest. Katie Porter vs Gil Cisneros.
CA-15: Long Beach, Carson, San Pedro. Alan Lowenthal vs Nanette Barragan.
CA-16: Torrance, Hawthorne, Manhattan Beach. Ted Lieu.
CA-17: Hollywood, Beverly Hills, Culver City. Karen Bass.
CA-18: Inglewood, Willowbrook, Compton. Maxine Waters.
CA-19: Downtown, Koreatown, Boyle Heights. Jimmy Gomez.
CA-20: Huntington Park, Downey, Bellflower. Lucille Roybal-Allard.
CA-21: Glendale, Eagle Rock, Pasadena. Adam Schiff.
CA-22: Pico Rivera, Norwalk, Whittier. Linda Sanchez.
CA-23: Monterey Park, El Monte, Arcadia. Judy Chu.
CA-24: Covina, Pomona, Diamond Bar. Open?
CA-25: Santa Monica, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley. Julia Brownley.
CA-26: Northridge, Chatsworth, Sylmar. Brad Sherman.
CA-27: Van Nuys, North Hollywood, Burbank. Tony Cardenas.

The non-safe seats:
CA-01. This is an Asian opportunity seat, and I'd be curious to see who wins it.
CA-04. Porter would obviously win against Cisneros, but I'd expect Cisneros to carpetbag in CA-24 which arguably has more of his base in it anyway.
CA-15. This is, of course, your original matchup. I have no idea if Lowenthal or Barragan would win, and I'd expect it would be very competitive. Either they challenge each other in a primary or one of them would choose to run for something else entirely (LA County supervisors?). It's worth noting that Lowenthal will be 82 and might just retire and clear a path for Barragan.
CA-24. This area is represented by Grace Napolitano, although she lives some distance away in Norwalk. That said, she will be 85 come 2022 and I'd expect her to retire and let Cisneros run here.

There are a few other things, like Brad Sherman living in Cardenas's district in the new map, and Karen Bass possibly living in Maxine Waters', but I expect them to run in the open districts I assigned them to which contain many of their current voters anyway. Regardless, it looks like Cisneros/Napolitano/Porter and Barragan/Lowenthal will probably be the matchups, with a new district created in Orange County's Asian Belt. You were correct in pinpointing Barragan-Lowenthal as the key matchup from this cut, even though the area that is stagnating the most is along the I-5 corridor in SE LA County. It is convenient, however, that Lowenthal and Napolitano might just retire and clear things up.

There is no need to pack Asians, the commission would be unlikely to do this.

What about a coastal OC-based CA-47 centered in Garden Grove (mostly overlapping with AD-72)? It wouldn’t pack Asians. but it could easily elect an Asian candidate. Might the commission do this, or will they try to maximize the number of wealthy white districts?

There's no material difference in the ways that Whites and Asians vote. And wealthy white districts are able to elect Asians fairly easily, such as Ted Lieu. Hell, even Bakersfield has an Asian Mayor and State Rep.

This doesn't mean that the commission won't have a different approach this time, but considering that it didn't happen last time, I expect to see the Asian vote and the black vote split, rather than packed into single districts. Compton and Ladera Heights is not a community of interest outside of the fact that you can find black people there lol.

VRA is almost certainly going to demand a Ladera Heights-Compton black district. It isn't an obvious COI, but that probably doesn't matter. On the other hand, an OC Asian VRA district probably doesn't have to be created, but it is a sensible COI and it allows you to keep the Orange Coast Coast together, the Hispanic belt from Anaheim to Santa Ana together, and not need to draw a Long Beach-OC district. It just makes sense.

[I’m not Stu]

Well, this is the district map I have. Ignore the questionable district numbering.



CA-01: Cerritos, Cypress, Garden Grove. Open.
CA-02: Santa Ana, Anaheim, Fullerton. Lou Correa.
CA-02: Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, Laguna Niguel. Harley Rouda
CA-04: Yorba Linda, Irvine, Lake Forest. Katie Porter vs Gil Cisneros.
CA-15: Long Beach, Carson, San Pedro. Alan Lowenthal vs Nanette Barragan.
CA-16: Torrance, Hawthorne, Manhattan Beach. Ted Lieu.
CA-17: Hollywood, Beverly Hills, Culver City. Karen Bass.
CA-18: Inglewood, Willowbrook, Compton. Maxine Waters.
CA-19: Downtown, Koreatown, Boyle Heights. Jimmy Gomez.
CA-20: Huntington Park, Downey, Bellflower. Lucille Roybal-Allard.
CA-21: Glendale, Eagle Rock, Pasadena. Adam Schiff.
CA-22: Pico Rivera, Norwalk, Whittier. Linda Sanchez.
CA-23: Monterey Park, El Monte, Arcadia. Judy Chu.
CA-24: Covina, Pomona, Diamond Bar. Open?
CA-25: Santa Monica, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley. Julia Brownley.
CA-26: Northridge, Chatsworth, Sylmar. Brad Sherman.
CA-27: Van Nuys, North Hollywood, Burbank. Tony Cardenas.

The non-safe seats:
CA-01. This is an Asian opportunity seat, and I'd be curious to see who wins it.
CA-04. Porter would obviously win against Cisneros, but I'd expect Cisneros to carpetbag in CA-24 which arguably has more of his base in it anyway.
CA-15. This is, of course, your original matchup. I have no idea if Lowenthal or Barragan would win, and I'd expect it would be very competitive. Either they challenge each other in a primary or one of them would choose to run for something else entirely (LA County supervisors?). It's worth noting that Lowenthal will be 82 and might just retire and clear a path for Barragan.
CA-24. This area is represented by Grace Napolitano, although she lives some distance away in Norwalk. That said, she will be 85 come 2022 and I'd expect her to retire and let Cisneros run here.

There are a few other things, like Brad Sherman living in Cardenas's district in the new map, and Karen Bass possibly living in Maxine Waters', but I expect them to run in the open districts I assigned them to which contain many of their current voters anyway. Regardless, it looks like Cisneros/Napolitano/Porter and Barragan/Lowenthal will probably be the matchups, with a new district created in Orange County's Asian Belt. You were correct in pinpointing Barragan-Lowenthal as the key matchup from this cut, even though the area that is stagnating the most is along the I-5 corridor in SE LA County. It is convenient, however, that Lowenthal and Napolitano might just retire and clear things up.

There is no need to pack Asians, the commission would be unlikely to do this.

What about a coastal OC-based CA-47 centered in Garden Grove (mostly overlapping with AD-72)? It wouldn’t pack Asians. but it could easily elect an Asian candidate. Might the commission do this, or will they try to maximize the number of wealthy white districts?

There's no material difference in the ways that Whites and Asians vote. And wealthy white districts are able to elect Asians fairly easily, such as Ted Lieu. Hell, even Bakersfield has an Asian Mayor and State Rep.

This doesn't mean that the commission won't have a different approach this time, but considering that it didn't happen last time, I expect to see the Asian vote and the black vote split, rather than packed into single districts. Compton and Ladera Heights is not a community of interest outside of the fact that you can find black people there lol.

VRA is almost certainly going to demand a Ladera Heights-Compton black district. It isn't an obvious COI, but that probably doesn't matter. On the other hand, an OC Asian VRA district probably doesn't have to be created, but it is a sensible COI and it allows you to keep the Orange Coast Coast together, the Hispanic belt from Anaheim to Santa Ana together, and not need to draw a Long Beach-OC district. It just makes sense.

Right. I didn’t mean an Asian VRA district, I meant a coastal district similar to AD-72; a combination of Asian and WWC voters (whites are actually a plurality in AD-72).

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Well, this is the district map I have. Ignore the questionable district numbering.



CA-01: Cerritos, Cypress, Garden Grove. Open.
CA-02: Santa Ana, Anaheim, Fullerton. Lou Correa.
CA-02: Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, Laguna Niguel. Harley Rouda
CA-04: Yorba Linda, Irvine, Lake Forest. Katie Porter vs Gil Cisneros.
CA-15: Long Beach, Carson, San Pedro. Alan Lowenthal vs Nanette Barragan.
CA-16: Torrance, Hawthorne, Manhattan Beach. Ted Lieu.
CA-17: Hollywood, Beverly Hills, Culver City. Karen Bass.
CA-18: Inglewood, Willowbrook, Compton. Maxine Waters.
CA-19: Downtown, Koreatown, Boyle Heights. Jimmy Gomez.
CA-20: Huntington Park, Downey, Bellflower. Lucille Roybal-Allard.
CA-21: Glendale, Eagle Rock, Pasadena. Adam Schiff.
CA-22: Pico Rivera, Norwalk, Whittier. Linda Sanchez.
CA-23: Monterey Park, El Monte, Arcadia. Judy Chu.
CA-24: Covina, Pomona, Diamond Bar. Open?
CA-25: Santa Monica, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley. Julia Brownley.
CA-26: Northridge, Chatsworth, Sylmar. Brad Sherman.
CA-27: Van Nuys, North Hollywood, Burbank. Tony Cardenas.

The non-safe seats:
CA-01. This is an Asian opportunity seat, and I'd be curious to see who wins it.
CA-04. Porter would obviously win against Cisneros, but I'd expect Cisneros to carpetbag in CA-24 which arguably has more of his base in it anyway.
CA-15. This is, of course, your original matchup. I have no idea if Lowenthal or Barragan would win, and I'd expect it would be very competitive. Either they challenge each other in a primary or one of them would choose to run for something else entirely (LA County supervisors?). It's worth noting that Lowenthal will be 82 and might just retire and clear a path for Barragan.
CA-24. This area is represented by Grace Napolitano, although she lives some distance away in Norwalk. That said, she will be 85 come 2022 and I'd expect her to retire and let Cisneros run here.

There are a few other things, like Brad Sherman living in Cardenas's district in the new map, and Karen Bass possibly living in Maxine Waters', but I expect them to run in the open districts I assigned them to which contain many of their current voters anyway. Regardless, it looks like Cisneros/Napolitano/Porter and Barragan/Lowenthal will probably be the matchups, with a new district created in Orange County's Asian Belt. You were correct in pinpointing Barragan-Lowenthal as the key matchup from this cut, even though the area that is stagnating the most is along the I-5 corridor in SE LA County. It is convenient, however, that Lowenthal and Napolitano might just retire and clear things up.

There is no need to pack Asians, the commission would be unlikely to do this.

What about a coastal OC-based CA-47 centered in Garden Grove (mostly overlapping with AD-72)? It wouldn’t pack Asians. but it could easily elect an Asian candidate. Might the commission do this, or will they try to maximize the number of wealthy white districts?

There's no material difference in the ways that Whites and Asians vote. And wealthy white districts are able to elect Asians fairly easily, such as Ted Lieu. Hell, even Bakersfield has an Asian Mayor and State Rep.

This doesn't mean that the commission won't have a different approach this time, but considering that it didn't happen last time, I expect to see the Asian vote and the black vote split, rather than packed into single districts. Compton and Ladera Heights is not a community of interest outside of the fact that you can find black people there lol.

VRA is almost certainly going to demand a Ladera Heights-Compton black district. It isn't an obvious COI, but that probably doesn't matter. On the other hand, an OC Asian VRA district probably doesn't have to be created, but it is a sensible COI and it allows you to keep the Orange Coast Coast together, the Hispanic belt from Anaheim to Santa Ana together, and not need to draw a Long Beach-OC district. It just makes sense.

Right. I didn’t mean an Asian VRA district, I meant a coastal district similar to AD-72; a combination of Asian and WWC voters (whites are actually a plurality in AD-72).

But why stretch it to the coast when Orange County north of the 405 and south of the 405 are very different things. Huntington Beach-Dana Point is absolutely a COI.

[I’m not Stu]

Well, this is the district map I have. Ignore the questionable district numbering.



CA-01: Cerritos, Cypress, Garden Grove. Open.
CA-02: Santa Ana, Anaheim, Fullerton. Lou Correa.
CA-02: Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, Laguna Niguel. Harley Rouda
CA-04: Yorba Linda, Irvine, Lake Forest. Katie Porter vs Gil Cisneros.
CA-15: Long Beach, Carson, San Pedro. Alan Lowenthal vs Nanette Barragan.
CA-16: Torrance, Hawthorne, Manhattan Beach. Ted Lieu.
CA-17: Hollywood, Beverly Hills, Culver City. Karen Bass.
CA-18: Inglewood, Willowbrook, Compton. Maxine Waters.
CA-19: Downtown, Koreatown, Boyle Heights. Jimmy Gomez.
CA-20: Huntington Park, Downey, Bellflower. Lucille Roybal-Allard.
CA-21: Glendale, Eagle Rock, Pasadena. Adam Schiff.
CA-22: Pico Rivera, Norwalk, Whittier. Linda Sanchez.
CA-23: Monterey Park, El Monte, Arcadia. Judy Chu.
CA-24: Covina, Pomona, Diamond Bar. Open?
CA-25: Santa Monica, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley. Julia Brownley.
CA-26: Northridge, Chatsworth, Sylmar. Brad Sherman.
CA-27: Van Nuys, North Hollywood, Burbank. Tony Cardenas.

The non-safe seats:
CA-01. This is an Asian opportunity seat, and I'd be curious to see who wins it.
CA-04. Porter would obviously win against Cisneros, but I'd expect Cisneros to carpetbag in CA-24 which arguably has more of his base in it anyway.
CA-15. This is, of course, your original matchup. I have no idea if Lowenthal or Barragan would win, and I'd expect it would be very competitive. Either they challenge each other in a primary or one of them would choose to run for something else entirely (LA County supervisors?). It's worth noting that Lowenthal will be 82 and might just retire and clear a path for Barragan.
CA-24. This area is represented by Grace Napolitano, although she lives some distance away in Norwalk. That said, she will be 85 come 2022 and I'd expect her to retire and let Cisneros run here.

There are a few other things, like Brad Sherman living in Cardenas's district in the new map, and Karen Bass possibly living in Maxine Waters', but I expect them to run in the open districts I assigned them to which contain many of their current voters anyway. Regardless, it looks like Cisneros/Napolitano/Porter and Barragan/Lowenthal will probably be the matchups, with a new district created in Orange County's Asian Belt. You were correct in pinpointing Barragan-Lowenthal as the key matchup from this cut, even though the area that is stagnating the most is along the I-5 corridor in SE LA County. It is convenient, however, that Lowenthal and Napolitano might just retire and clear things up.

There is no need to pack Asians, the commission would be unlikely to do this.

What about a coastal OC-based CA-47 centered in Garden Grove (mostly overlapping with AD-72)? It wouldn’t pack Asians. but it could easily elect an Asian candidate. Might the commission do this, or will they try to maximize the number of wealthy white districts?

There's no material difference in the ways that Whites and Asians vote. And wealthy white districts are able to elect Asians fairly easily, such as Ted Lieu. Hell, even Bakersfield has an Asian Mayor and State Rep.

This doesn't mean that the commission won't have a different approach this time, but considering that it didn't happen last time, I expect to see the Asian vote and the black vote split, rather than packed into single districts. Compton and Ladera Heights is not a community of interest outside of the fact that you can find black people there lol.

VRA is almost certainly going to demand a Ladera Heights-Compton black district. It isn't an obvious COI, but that probably doesn't matter. On the other hand, an OC Asian VRA district probably doesn't have to be created, but it is a sensible COI and it allows you to keep the Orange Coast Coast together, the Hispanic belt from Anaheim to Santa Ana together, and not need to draw a Long Beach-OC district. It just makes sense.

Right. I didn’t mean an Asian VRA district, I meant a coastal district similar to AD-72; a combination of Asian and WWC voters (whites are actually a plurality in AD-72).

But why stretch it to the coast when Orange County north of the 405 and south of the 405 are very different things. Huntington Beach-Dana Point is absolutely a COI.

True. But that would be the southern half of Huntington Beach. Northern Huntington Beach-Garden Grove-Westminster-Fountain Valley-Seal Beach is a major COI. A municipal split of Huntington Beach would make sense because it’s so large

[SevenEleven]

Well, this is the district map I have. Ignore the questionable district numbering.



CA-01: Cerritos, Cypress, Garden Grove. Open.
CA-02: Santa Ana, Anaheim, Fullerton. Lou Correa.
CA-02: Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, Laguna Niguel. Harley Rouda
CA-04: Yorba Linda, Irvine, Lake Forest. Katie Porter vs Gil Cisneros.
CA-15: Long Beach, Carson, San Pedro. Alan Lowenthal vs Nanette Barragan.
CA-16: Torrance, Hawthorne, Manhattan Beach. Ted Lieu.
CA-17: Hollywood, Beverly Hills, Culver City. Karen Bass.
CA-18: Inglewood, Willowbrook, Compton. Maxine Waters.
CA-19: Downtown, Koreatown, Boyle Heights. Jimmy Gomez.
CA-20: Huntington Park, Downey, Bellflower. Lucille Roybal-Allard.
CA-21: Glendale, Eagle Rock, Pasadena. Adam Schiff.
CA-22: Pico Rivera, Norwalk, Whittier. Linda Sanchez.
CA-23: Monterey Park, El Monte, Arcadia. Judy Chu.
CA-24: Covina, Pomona, Diamond Bar. Open?
CA-25: Santa Monica, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley. Julia Brownley.
CA-26: Northridge, Chatsworth, Sylmar. Brad Sherman.
CA-27: Van Nuys, North Hollywood, Burbank. Tony Cardenas.

The non-safe seats:
CA-01. This is an Asian opportunity seat, and I'd be curious to see who wins it.
CA-04. Porter would obviously win against Cisneros, but I'd expect Cisneros to carpetbag in CA-24 which arguably has more of his base in it anyway.
CA-15. This is, of course, your original matchup. I have no idea if Lowenthal or Barragan would win, and I'd expect it would be very competitive. Either they challenge each other in a primary or one of them would choose to run for something else entirely (LA County supervisors?). It's worth noting that Lowenthal will be 82 and might just retire and clear a path for Barragan.
CA-24. This area is represented by Grace Napolitano, although she lives some distance away in Norwalk. That said, she will be 85 come 2022 and I'd expect her to retire and let Cisneros run here.

There are a few other things, like Brad Sherman living in Cardenas's district in the new map, and Karen Bass possibly living in Maxine Waters', but I expect them to run in the open districts I assigned them to which contain many of their current voters anyway. Regardless, it looks like Cisneros/Napolitano/Porter and Barragan/Lowenthal will probably be the matchups, with a new district created in Orange County's Asian Belt. You were correct in pinpointing Barragan-Lowenthal as the key matchup from this cut, even though the area that is stagnating the most is along the I-5 corridor in SE LA County. It is convenient, however, that Lowenthal and Napolitano might just retire and clear things up.

There is no need to pack Asians, the commission would be unlikely to do this.

What about a coastal OC-based CA-47 centered in Garden Grove (mostly overlapping with AD-72)? It wouldn’t pack Asians. but it could easily elect an Asian candidate. Might the commission do this, or will they try to maximize the number of wealthy white districts?

There's no material difference in the ways that Whites and Asians vote. And wealthy white districts are able to elect Asians fairly easily, such as Ted Lieu. Hell, even Bakersfield has an Asian Mayor and State Rep.

This doesn't mean that the commission won't have a different approach this time, but considering that it didn't happen last time, I expect to see the Asian vote and the black vote split, rather than packed into single districts. Compton and Ladera Heights is not a community of interest outside of the fact that you can find black people there lol.

VRA is almost certainly going to demand a Ladera Heights-Compton black district. It isn't an obvious COI, but that probably doesn't matter. On the other hand, an OC Asian VRA district probably doesn't have to be created, but it is a sensible COI and it allows you to keep the Orange Coast Coast together, the Hispanic belt from Anaheim to Santa Ana together, and not need to draw a Long Beach-OC district. It just makes sense.

NAACP will argue that packing the black vote will dilute their influence, and you can't really draw a majority black district anyway.

[I’m not Stu]

Would Diedre Nguyen or Kim Nguyen (the two Democratic Garden Grove city councilors) be favorites in CA-47? Would Cardenas finally lose in CA-29 (to another Democrat)?

[SevenEleven]

[cvparty]

is this a 52-district map

[SevenEleven]

is this a 52-district map

No, i kept it at 53

[I’m not Stu]

Is the color scheme CA-39, CA-43, CA-44, CA-45, CA-46, CA-47, CA-48?

[SevenEleven]

Is the color scheme CA-39, CA-43, CA-44, CA-45, CA-46, CA-47, CA-48?

Essentially, yes. I didn't necessarily base these districts off of current incumbents, but there's certainly some similarities with the current map.

Where do you think Brad Sherman runs in my map?

[I’m not Stu]

Is the color scheme CA-39, CA-43, CA-44, CA-45, CA-46, CA-47, CA-48?

Essentially, yes. I didn't necessarily base these districts off of current incumbents, but there's certainly some similarities with the current map.

Where do you think Brad Sherman runs in my map?

Brad Sherman runs in CA-30. Julia Brownley runs in CA-26, which covers Malibu and Moorpark. Salud Carbajal runs in CA-24.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Where do you think Brad Sherman runs in my map?

Probably that Westwood/Beverly Hills/Sherman Oaks district. Bass gets the Culver City-USC one, Schiff gets Burbank-Pasadena, Gomez gets Downtown, Lieu gets the coast, Brownley gets Thousand Oaks-Malibu, and Cardenas gets Van Nuys-North Hollywood. Seems simple enough.

[SevenEleven]

Is the color scheme CA-39, CA-43, CA-44, CA-45, CA-46, CA-47, CA-48?

Essentially, yes. I didn't necessarily base these districts off of current incumbents, but there's certainly some similarities with the current map.

Where do you think Brad Sherman runs in my map?

Brad Sherman runs in CA-30. Julia Brownley runs in CA-26, which covers Malibu and Moorpark. Salud Carbajal runs in CA-24.

I think Carbajal runs in the SLO-Santa Maria district and Brownley runs in the Ventura County district.