Los Angeles County redistricting

[I’m not Stu]

Is the color scheme CA-39, CA-43, CA-44, CA-45, CA-46, CA-47, CA-48?

Essentially, yes. I didn't necessarily base these districts off of current incumbents, but there's certainly some similarities with the current map.

Where do you think Brad Sherman runs in my map?

Brad Sherman runs in CA-30. Julia Brownley runs in CA-26, which covers Malibu and Moorpark. Salud Carbajal runs in CA-24.

I think Carbajal runs in the SLO-Santa Maria district and Brownley runs in the Ventura County district.

Brownley lives in the Westlake Village-Malibu-Moorpark district.

[SevenEleven]

That leaves an open seat based in Oxnard then, or an open seat based on SLO county.

[I’m not Stu]

That leaves an open seat based in Oxnard then, or an open seat based on SLO county.

I tried to come up with a theory where Brownley doesn’t carpetbag. Which district is Santa Barbara in on this map?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

That leaves an open seat based in Oxnard then, or an open seat based on SLO county.

Probably Oxnard, since Carbajal is based up in SB. And speaking of Oxnard, it's very weird to lump Camarillo with Simi Valley/Thousand Oaks instead of Oxnard. I'd recommend making Brownley take in Chatsworth, give Camarillo to Oxnard, and expand the Santa Clarita district another way instead.

[I’m not Stu]

That leaves an open seat based in Oxnard then, or an open seat based on SLO county.

Probably Oxnard, since Carbajal is based up in SB. And speaking of Oxnard, it's very weird to lump Camarillo with Simi Valley/Thousand Oaks instead of Oxnard. I'd recommend making Brownley take in Chatsworth, give Camarillo to Oxnard, and expand the Santa Clarita district another way instead.

Carbajal then runs in the Oxnard district.

[SevenEleven]

That leaves an open seat based in Oxnard then, or an open seat based on SLO county.

Probably Oxnard, since Carbajal is based up in SB. And speaking of Oxnard, it's very weird to lump Camarillo with Simi Valley/Thousand Oaks instead of Oxnard. I'd recommend making Brownley take in Chatsworth, give Camarillo to Oxnard, and expand the Santa Clarita district another way instead.

In this map we are limiting county and city splits as much as possible

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

That leaves an open seat based in Oxnard then, or an open seat based on SLO county.

Probably Oxnard, since Carbajal is based up in SB. And speaking of Oxnard, it's very weird to lump Camarillo with Simi Valley/Thousand Oaks instead of Oxnard. I'd recommend making Brownley take in Chatsworth, give Camarillo to Oxnard, and expand the Santa Clarita district another way instead.

Carbajal then runs in the Oxnard district.

No. I'd assume he'd run in Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-San Luis Obispo and leave Ventura-Oxnard-Port Hueneme open.

[I’m not Stu]

That leaves an open seat based in Oxnard then, or an open seat based on SLO county.

Probably Oxnard, since Carbajal is based up in SB. And speaking of Oxnard, it's very weird to lump Camarillo with Simi Valley/Thousand Oaks instead of Oxnard. I'd recommend making Brownley take in Chatsworth, give Camarillo to Oxnard, and expand the Santa Clarita district another way instead.

Carbajal then runs in the Oxnard district.

No. I'd assume he'd run in Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-San Luis Obispo and leave Ventura-Oxnard-Port Hueneme open.

I guess Oxnard (CA-24) then opens. What areas does CA-42 cover on this map?

[SevenEleven]

That leaves an open seat based in Oxnard then, or an open seat based on SLO county.

Probably Oxnard, since Carbajal is based up in SB. And speaking of Oxnard, it's very weird to lump Camarillo with Simi Valley/Thousand Oaks instead of Oxnard. I'd recommend making Brownley take in Chatsworth, give Camarillo to Oxnard, and expand the Santa Clarita district another way instead.

Carbajal then runs in the Oxnard district.

No. I'd assume he'd run in Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-San Luis Obispo and leave Ventura-Oxnard-Port Hueneme open.

I guess Oxnard (CA-24) then opens. What areas does CA-42 cover on this map?

Riverside

[I’m not Stu]

That leaves an open seat based in Oxnard then, or an open seat based on SLO county.

Probably Oxnard, since Carbajal is based up in SB. And speaking of Oxnard, it's very weird to lump Camarillo with Simi Valley/Thousand Oaks instead of Oxnard. I'd recommend making Brownley take in Chatsworth, give Camarillo to Oxnard, and expand the Santa Clarita district another way instead.

Carbajal then runs in the Oxnard district.

No. I'd assume he'd run in Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-San Luis Obispo and leave Ventura-Oxnard-Port Hueneme open.

I guess Oxnard (CA-24) then opens. What areas does CA-42 cover on this map?

Riverside

It looks like CA-42 also covers Chino Hills in San Bernardino County. Does it cover any other counties?

[SevenEleven]

[SevenEleven]

That leaves an open seat based in Oxnard then, or an open seat based on SLO county.

Probably Oxnard, since Carbajal is based up in SB. And speaking of Oxnard, it's very weird to lump Camarillo with Simi Valley/Thousand Oaks instead of Oxnard. I'd recommend making Brownley take in Chatsworth, give Camarillo to Oxnard, and expand the Santa Clarita district another way instead.

Carbajal then runs in the Oxnard district.

No. I'd assume he'd run in Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-San Luis Obispo and leave Ventura-Oxnard-Port Hueneme open.

I guess Oxnard (CA-24) then opens. What areas does CA-42 cover on this map?

Riverside

It looks like CA-42 also covers Chino Hills in San Bernardino County. Does it cover any other counties?

I've considered moving Riverside east, and giving Chino Hills to the light green district.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

That leaves an open seat based in Oxnard then, or an open seat based on SLO county.

Probably Oxnard, since Carbajal is based up in SB. And speaking of Oxnard, it's very weird to lump Camarillo with Simi Valley/Thousand Oaks instead of Oxnard. I'd recommend making Brownley take in Chatsworth, give Camarillo to Oxnard, and expand the Santa Clarita district another way instead.

Carbajal then runs in the Oxnard district.

No. I'd assume he'd run in Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-San Luis Obispo and leave Ventura-Oxnard-Port Hueneme open.

Huh. I thought that map would have the Ventura district stop at the SB County line. Guess this would be Carbajal's afterall.

[I’m not Stu]

That leaves an open seat based in Oxnard then, or an open seat based on SLO county.

Probably Oxnard, since Carbajal is based up in SB. And speaking of Oxnard, it's very weird to lump Camarillo with Simi Valley/Thousand Oaks instead of Oxnard. I'd recommend making Brownley take in Chatsworth, give Camarillo to Oxnard, and expand the Santa Clarita district another way instead.

Carbajal then runs in the Oxnard district.

No. I'd assume he'd run in Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-San Luis Obispo and leave Ventura-Oxnard-Port Hueneme open.

Huh. I thought that map would have the Ventura district stop at the SB County line. Guess this would be Carbajal's afterall.

Why is Oceanside split (CA-49 and CA-52)?

[SevenEleven]

That leaves an open seat based in Oxnard then, or an open seat based on SLO county.

Probably Oxnard, since Carbajal is based up in SB. And speaking of Oxnard, it's very weird to lump Camarillo with Simi Valley/Thousand Oaks instead of Oxnard. I'd recommend making Brownley take in Chatsworth, give Camarillo to Oxnard, and expand the Santa Clarita district another way instead.

Carbajal then runs in the Oxnard district.

No. I'd assume he'd run in Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-San Luis Obispo and leave Ventura-Oxnard-Port Hueneme open.

Huh. I thought that map would have the Ventura district stop at the SB County line. Guess this would be Carbajal's afterall.

Why is Oceanside split (CA-49 and CA-52)?

Oceanside is fully within 52, Camp Pendleton is in 49 though.

[I’m not Stu]

Downtown San Diego still appears to be split (51 and 53; 52 was removed) wouldn’t it make sense to keep it whole?

[SevenEleven]

Downtown San Diego still appears to be split (51 and 53; 52 was removed) wouldn’t it make sense to keep it whole?

Downtown San Diego is entirely in the green district. The red one starts at La Jolla, the blue one stops at National City

[I’m not Stu]

Since Carbajal would get the Santa Barbara-Ventura district and Brownley gets the Thousand Oaks district, would CA-47 be the only open seat under this map?

[SevenEleven]

Since Carbajal would get the Santa Barbara-Ventura district and Brownley gets the Thousand Oaks district, would CA-47 be the only open seat under this map?

Nunes has to decide between a D+3 Fresno district that Cox probably runs in, or a R+3 Merced district.

The orange district based in Redlands is also open, as I believe Pete Aguilar sticks to the more Dem-friendly district in San Bernardino. Paul Cook could technically run there but I thought it was retiring.

Jim Costa has to choose between running against Josh Harder, Devin Nunes, or TJ Cox.

[I’m not Stu]

Costa takes Merced. Cox takes Fresno. Nunes retires or loses (to Cox or Costa). Does McCarthy take the blue or green Bakersfield district? Is Olbernolte/Bubser in orange? Carbajal takes in LA County too? Who might win CA-47, one of Garden Grove’s two Democratic councilors, Republican Garden Grove mayor Steve Jones, former Fullerton Democratic mayor Doug Chaffee, or Berniecrat Cypress College professor Peter Mathews?

[SevenEleven]

Costa takes Merced. Cox takes Fresno. Nunes retires or loses (to Cox or Costa). Does McCarthy take the blue or green Bakersfield district? Is Olbernolte/Bubser in orange? Carbajal takes in LA County too? Who might win CA-47, one of Garden Grove’s two Democratic councilors, Republican Garden Grove mayor Steve Jones, former Fullerton Democratic mayor Doug Chaffee, or Berniecrat Cypress College professor Peter Mathews?

Bakersfield is entirely within the green district, but it's majority Hispanic (not VAP yet). R+5.5

Yes, Olbernolte is in the orange district.

Chaffee probably has the best chance out of those you listed. At D+8 I didn't see a Republican that could win. It's more D than the Santa Ana district.

[I’m not Stu]

Costa takes Merced. Cox takes Fresno. Nunes retires or loses (to Cox or Costa). Does McCarthy take the blue or green Bakersfield district? Is Olbernolte/Bubser in orange? Carbajal takes in LA County too? Who might win CA-47, one of Garden Grove’s two Democratic councilors, Republican Garden Grove mayor Steve Jones, former Fullerton Democratic mayor Doug Chaffee, or Berniecrat Cypress College professor Peter Mathews?

Bakersfield is entirely within the green district, but it's majority Hispanic (not VAP yet). R+5.5

Yes, Olbernolte is in the orange district.

Chaffee probably has the best chance out of those you listed. At D+8 I didn't see a Republican that could win. It's more D than the Santa Ana district.

Why the former Fullerton mayor? Would the Garden Grove councilors or Chaffee likely beat Mathews?

[SevenEleven]

Costa takes Merced. Cox takes Fresno. Nunes retires or loses (to Cox or Costa). Does McCarthy take the blue or green Bakersfield district? Is Olbernolte/Bubser in orange? Carbajal takes in LA County too? Who might win CA-47, one of Garden Grove’s two Democratic councilors, Republican Garden Grove mayor Steve Jones, former Fullerton Democratic mayor Doug Chaffee, or Berniecrat Cypress College professor Peter Mathews?

Bakersfield is entirely within the green district, but it's majority Hispanic (not VAP yet). R+5.5

Yes, Olbernolte is in the orange district.

Chaffee probably has the best chance out of those you listed. At D+8 I didn't see a Republican that could win. It's more D than the Santa Ana district.

Why the former Fullerton mayor? Would the Garden Grove councilors or Chaffee likely beat Mathews?

I would actually think either Diedre Nguyen or Sharon Quirk-Silva would probably take it over any of those guys.

[I’m not Stu]

Costa takes Merced. Cox takes Fresno. Nunes retires or loses (to Cox or Costa). Does McCarthy take the blue or green Bakersfield district? Is Olbernolte/Bubser in orange? Carbajal takes in LA County too? Who might win CA-47, one of Garden Grove’s two Democratic councilors, Republican Garden Grove mayor Steve Jones, former Fullerton Democratic mayor Doug Chaffee, or Berniecrat Cypress College professor Peter Mathews?

Bakersfield is entirely within the green district, but it's majority Hispanic (not VAP yet). R+5.5

Yes, Olbernolte is in the orange district.

Chaffee probably has the best chance out of those you listed. At D+8 I didn't see a Republican that could win. It's more D than the Santa Ana district.

Why the former Fullerton mayor? Would the Garden Grove councilors or Chaffee likely beat Mathews?

I would actually think either Diedre Nguyen or Sharon Quirk-Silva would probably take it over any of those guys.

You think that either establishment-backed candidates like Quirk-Silva or Nguyen would beat Mathews, the anti-establishment firebrand who ran to Lowenthal’s left?

[SevenEleven]

Costa takes Merced. Cox takes Fresno. Nunes retires or loses (to Cox or Costa). Does McCarthy take the blue or green Bakersfield district? Is Olbernolte/Bubser in orange? Carbajal takes in LA County too? Who might win CA-47, one of Garden Grove’s two Democratic councilors, Republican Garden Grove mayor Steve Jones, former Fullerton Democratic mayor Doug Chaffee, or Berniecrat Cypress College professor Peter Mathews?

Bakersfield is entirely within the green district, but it's majority Hispanic (not VAP yet). R+5.5

Yes, Olbernolte is in the orange district.

Chaffee probably has the best chance out of those you listed. At D+8 I didn't see a Republican that could win. It's more D than the Santa Ana district.

Why the former Fullerton mayor? Would the Garden Grove councilors or Chaffee likely beat Mathews?

I would actually think either Diedre Nguyen or Sharon Quirk-Silva would probably take it over any of those guys.

You think that either establishment-backed candidates like Quirk-Silva or Nguyen would beat Mathews, the anti-establishment firebrand who ran to Lowenthal’s left?

Yes, California is not very friendly to anti-establishment candidates.

Mathews doesn't even perform well on ratemyprofessor.com