How will people in these industries and occupations vote in the 2020 election?

[BaldEagle1991]

I did a similar thread years ago for 2012 & 2016, and now here's a thread for 2020. Same, but new stuff added as well.

So try to guess on how people that work in these industries or occupations will vote in 2020. I honestly think to some extent your occupation or the industry you work in does shape a big factor in how you vote. Not a huge part, but it does surely play a role.

Coal mining
Oil and Gas
Broadcast media (TV/Radio)
Journalist Publications (Blogs, Newspapers)
Higher education
Medical (Doctors, Nurses)
Military
Logging
Commercial airlines
Religious clergy
Film
Professional sporting
Construction
IT/Tech
Tourism
Fishing
Law (Lawyers of any kind)
Law Enforcement (Police, detectives)
Big box Retail
Music (singing, production)
Banking/Finances
Automobile
Farming 
Engineering
Restaurant workers (waiters, chefs)
Pharmacists
Insurance
Plumbers
Electricians
Dancers (Ballerinas, Dance studio owners, NFL cheerleaders, etc)
Personal trainers
Delivery service (UPS, USPS, FedEx, Food delivery, Truck drivers)
Actuaries
Hospitality (Hotels, Casinos)

[Roll Roons]

Trump:
Coal mining
Oil and gas
Military
Logging
Clergy
Construction
Professional athletes
Auto workers
Farmers
Fishing
Law enforcement
Retail
Plumbers
Electricians
Delivery

Biden:
Broadcast media
Journalists
Higher ed
Medical
Airlines
Film
IT/Tech
Tourism
Law
Music
Finance
Engineers
Restaurant workers
Pharmacists
Insurance
Dancers (though I feel like there aren't very many of them)
Personal trainers
Actuaries
Hospitality

[ProgressiveModerate]

Trump:
Coal mining
Oil and gas
Military
Logging
Clergy
Construction
Professional athletes
Auto workers
Farmers
Fishing
Law enforcement
Retail
Plumbers
Electricians
Delivery

Biden:
Broadcast media
Journalists
Higher ed
Medical
Airlines
Film
IT/Tech
Tourism
Law
Music
Finance
Engineers
Restaurant workers
Pharmacists
Insurance
Dancers (though I feel like there aren't very many of them)
Personal trainers
Actuaries
Hospitality

Mostly agree but I think that personal trainers will vote for Trump, delivery may vote for Biden, clergy and logging may vote for him too. I feel like a lot of this is just based off of stereotypes I have about what kinds of people do these professions. Generally, I think Biden will do better among careers that require higher education or are more in the creative field, wheras Trump will do better among people who do things that are more physical for their job.

[BaldEagle1991]

Trump:
Coal mining
Oil and gas
Military
Logging
Clergy
Construction
Professional athletes
Auto workers
Farmers
Fishing
Law enforcement
Retail
Plumbers
Electricians
Delivery

Biden:
Broadcast media
Journalists
Higher ed
Medical
Airlines
Film
IT/Tech
Tourism
Law
Music
Finance
Engineers
Restaurant workers
Pharmacists
Insurance
Dancers (though I feel like there aren't very many of them)
Personal trainers
Actuaries
Hospitality

Mostly agree but I think that personal trainers will vote for Trump, delivery may vote for Biden, clergy and logging may vote for him too. I feel like a lot of this is just based off of stereotypes I have about what kinds of people do these professions. Generally, I think Biden will do better among careers that require higher education or are more in the creative field, wheras Trump will do better among people who do things that are more physical for their job.

I think engineering might be slight Trump, yet you need a lot of higher ed and a certificate/license to do that.

[Person Man]

Trump:
Coal mining
Oil and gas
Military
Logging
Clergy
Construction
Professional athletes
Auto workers
Farmers
Fishing
Law enforcement
Retail
Plumbers
Electricians
Delivery

Biden:
Broadcast media
Journalists
Higher ed
Medical
Airlines
Film
IT/Tech
Tourism
Law
Music
Finance
Engineers
Restaurant workers
Pharmacists
Insurance
Dancers (though I feel like there aren't very many of them)
Personal trainers
Actuaries
Hospitality

Mostly agree but I think that personal trainers will vote for Trump, delivery may vote for Biden, clergy and logging may vote for him too. I feel like a lot of this is just based off of stereotypes I have about what kinds of people do these professions. Generally, I think Biden will do better among careers that require higher education or are more in the creative field, wheras Trump will do better among people who do things that are more physical for their job.

I think engineering might be slight Trump, yet you need a lot of higher ed and a certificate/license to do that.

It really depends on the discipline of Engineering.

[rhg2052]

Is there any publicly available data on how different occupations voted in previous elections?

[Camaro33]

Engineering as a field (I.e, employed as one) will be Trump quite handily. I’m an engineer and in deep blue CT. That should say something.

If it’s solely in terms of who has an engineering degree, then that’s another question. Tilt Trump to tossup. It’s a white male field.

[CookieDamage]

Coal mining - Solid Trump
Oil and Gas - Solid Trump
Broadcast media (TV/Radio) - Predominantly Biden
Journalist Publications (Blogs, Newspapers) - Predominantly Biden
Higher education - Solid Biden
Medical (Doctors, Nurses) - Predominantly Biden
Military - Predominantly Trump
Logging - Predominantly Trump
Commercial airlines - Predominantly Biden
Religious clergy - Leaning Trump
Film - Solid Biden
Professional sporting - Mixed (I have no idea, depends on the sport and race of the player, gender, etc)
Construction - Solid Trump
IT/Tech - Solid Biden
Tourism - Predominantly Biden
Fishing - Lean Trump
Law (Lawyers of any kind) - Lean Biden
Law Enforcement (Police, detectives) - Predominantly Trump
Big box Retail - Lean Biden
Music (singing, production) - Predominantly Biden
Banking/Finances - Predominantly Biden
Automobile - Predominantly Trump
Farming - Predominantly Trump
Engineering - Predominantly Biden
Restaurant workers (waiters, chefs) - Lean Biden
Pharmacists - Predominantly Biden
Insurance - Predominantly Biden
Plumbers - Predominantly Trump
Electricians - Predominantly Trump
Dancers (Ballerinas, Dance studio owners, NFL cheerleaders, etc) - Very close to Solid Biden
Personal trainers - Lean Biden but I can imagine there are lots of Trump PTs
Delivery service (UPS, USPS, FedEx, Food delivery, Truck drivers) - Lean Biden. I never get Trumpy vibes from these people
Actuaries - Lean Biden
Hospitality (Hotels, Casinos) - Lean Biden

[Alben Barkley]

Coal mining - Trump
Oil and Gas - Trump
Broadcast media (TV/Radio) - Biden
Journalist Publications (Blogs, Newspapers) - Biden
Higher education - Biden
Medical (Doctors, Nurses) - Biden
Military - Trump (except officers maybe)
Logging - Trump
Commercial airlines - Biden
Religious clergy - Trump (except most Muslims, Jews, some Catholics, and some mainline/liberal protestants)
Film - Biden
Professional sporting - Biden for basketball, football, frankly most sports dominated by African-Americans; Trump for, like, NASCAR
Construction - Trump
IT/Tech - Biden
Tourism - Biden
Fishing - Trump
Law (Lawyers of any kind) - Biden
Law Enforcement (Police, detectives) - Trump
Big box Retail - Biden
Music (singing, production) - Biden
Banking/Finances - Biden
Automobile - Trump
Farming - Trump
Engineering - Biden
Restaurant workers (waiters, chefs) - Biden
Pharmacists - Biden
Insurance - Biden
Plumbers - Trump
Electricians - Trump
Dancers (Ballerinas, Dance studio owners, NFL cheerleaders, etc) - Biden
Personal trainers - Trump
Delivery service (UPS, USPS, FedEx, Food delivery, Truck drivers) - Biden
Actuaries - Biden
Hospitality (Hotels, Casinos) - Biden

Obligatory “this is just who I think most people in these fields will likely vote for, obviously there will be exceptions all around.” Also I think in some cases it varies greatly depending on which part of the industry people are in. Like retail for instance, I imagine a lot of the low-level employees are more Dem-leaning, a lot of middle management types are more Republican-leaning, and the CEO/corporate types may be split depending on if they’re voting more based on their wallets or their education.

Really the whole thing is mostly just a proxy for education and class/income, and how we know those variables affect people’s vote.

[dw93]

Coal mining
Oil and Gas (Low Demand is probably gonna push some people in this industry toward Biden or not voting)
Broadcast media (TV/Radio) (Outside of FOX "News" and Hate Radio)
Journalist Publications (Blogs, Newspapers)
Higher education
Medical (Doctors, Nurses) (Might've been toss up before COVID-19)
Military (The Brass will vote Biden or sit it out. The rest will vote Trump)
Logging
Commercial airlines (Likely been a different story Pre COVID)
Religious clergy (Outside of Muslims, Non Orthodox Jews, Black Baptists, and some Catholics)
Film (Outside of the outspoken Conservatives)
Professional sporting (Depends on the Sport)
Construction
IT/Tech
Tourism (Again, likely a different story pre COVID)
Fishing
Law (Lawyers of any kind)
Law Enforcement (Police, detectives)
Big box Retail (Likely Toss Up Pre COVID)
Music (singing, production) (Outside of some Country singers)
Banking/Finances (Likely Toss up or Lean Trump Pre COVID)
Automobile
Farming (Some farmers hit hard by Tariffs could vote Biden. If not for Tariffs, solid Trump)
Engineering
Restaurant workers (waiters, chefs)
Pharmacists
Insurance
Plumbers (Union workers lean Biden, Non Union solid Trump)
Electricians  (Union workers lean Biden, Non Union solid Trump)
Dancers (Ballerinas, Dance studio owners, NFL cheerleaders, etc)
Personal trainers
Delivery service (UPS, USPS, FedEx, Food delivery, Truck drivers) (Truckers and Food Delivery lean Trump, FedEx and UPS are pure toss up, USPS is solid Biden)
Actuaries
Hospitality (Hotels, Casinos) (Some casinos might go Trump, everywhere else in this sector leans Biden)

Maroon= Solid Biden
Red= Lean Biden
Purple= Toss Up
Blue= Lean Trump
Navy= Solid Trump

[Del Tachi]

Trump:
Coal mining
Oil and gas
Broadcast media (TV/Radio)
Military
Logging
Commercial airlines
Religious clergy
Professional sporting
Construction
Fishing
Law enforcement
Banking/finances
Automobile
Farming
Engineering
Pharmacists
Insurance
Plumbers
Electricians
Personal trainers
Delivery service
Actuaries

Biden:
Journalism (blogs, newspaper)
Higher education
Film
IT/Tech
Tourism
Lawyers
Big box retail
Music (singing, production)
Restaurant workers (waiters, chefs)
Dancers
Hospitality (hotels, casinos)

Tossup:
Medical (doctors, nurses)

[BaldEagle1991]

Coal mining - Strong Trump
Oil and Gas - Strong Trump
Broadcast media (TV/Radio) - Lean Biden
Journalist Publications (Blogs, Newspapers) - Strong Biden
Higher education - Strong Biden
Medical (Doctors, Nurses) - Lean Biden
Military - Lean Trump
Logging - Strong Trump
Commercial airlines - Likely Biden
Religious clergy - Lean Trump
Film - Strong Biden
Professional sporting - Tossup
Construction - Lean Trump
IT/Tech - Lean Biden
Tourism - Likely Biden
Fishing - Strong Trump
Law (Lawyers of any kind) - Lean Biden
Law Enforcement (Police, detectives) - Likely Trump
Big box Retail - Tossup
Music (singing, production) - Strong Biden
Banking/Finances - Likely Biden
Automobile - Likely Trump
Farming - Likely Trump
Engineering - Likely Trump
Restaurant workers (waiters, chefs) - Likely Biden
Pharmacists - Strong Biden
Insurance - Likely Biden
Plumbers - Strong Trump
Electricians - Likely Trump
Dancers (Ballerinas, Dance studio owners, NFL cheerleaders, etc) - Strong Biden
Personal trainers - Lean Biden
Delivery service (UPS, USPS, FedEx, Food delivery, Truck drivers) - Likely Biden
Actuaries - Lean Biden
Hospitality (Hotels, Casinos) - Strong Biden

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Speaking as an insurance actuary myself, Biden will win actuaries, but Trump will win the insurance industry as a whole.

[BaldEagle1991]

Speaking as an insurance actuary myself, Biden will win actuaries, but Trump will win the insurance industry as a whole.

Maybe because the insurance industry and Trump have the same approval rating overall.

[Bismarck]

I agree with the consensus except on engineers, doctors, and finance. The first two are near tossup and most people in finance will vote for Trump. It’s amusing to see only stereotypically blue collar careers voting Trump.

[BaldEagle1991]

I agree with the consensus except on engineers, doctors, and finance. The first two are near tossup and most people in finance will vote for Trump. It’s amusing to see only stereotypically blue collar careers voting Trump.

You are aware blue collar/working class voters are the main base for Trump.

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

I think people overrate the degree to which construction workers will vote for Trump. Many are conservative in terms of outlook but they also tend to be union members that vote on bread and butter issues. I actually would argue that on balance they'd lean Biden since non-white construction workers are overwhelmingly Democrat and a sizable minority of the white ones are as well and actually sort of strike me as Obama-Trump-Biden voters.

[BaldEagle1991]

I think people overrate the degree to which construction workers will vote for Trump. Many are conservative in terms of outlook but they also tend to be union members that vote on bread and butter issues. I actually would argue that on balance they'd lean Biden since non-white construction workers are overwhelmingly Democrat and a sizable minority of the white ones are as well and actually sort of strike me as Obama-Trump-Biden voters.

You could be right, but they seem to be overwhelmingly non-college educated males. A core Trump constituency. Which explains why people overestimate. 

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I think the insurance industry will be much more Republican than a lot of other posters.  What reason would a health insurance salesman have to vote Democratic when half of that party literally wants to abolish their job?  Finance will also probably be more Republican, especially those not based in NYC.

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

I think people overrate the degree to which construction workers will vote for Trump. Many are conservative in terms of outlook but they also tend to be union members that vote on bread and butter issues. I actually would argue that on balance they'd lean Biden since non-white construction workers are overwhelmingly Democrat and a sizable minority of the white ones are as well and actually sort of strike me as Obama-Trump-Biden voters.

You could be right, but they seem to be overwhelmingly non-college educated males. A core Trump constituency. Which explains why people overestimate. 

non-college educated males aren't a core Trump constituency, non-college educated white males are

[7,052,770]

I think the insurance industry will be much more Republican than a lot of other posters.  What reason would a health insurance salesman have to vote Democratic when half of that party literally wants to abolish their job?  Finance will also probably be more Republican, especially those not based in NYC.

I don't know about Sales in particular, but the ACA was generally supported by the health insurance industry and great for health insurance stock prices.

Even if we have Medicare for All, there will still likely be health insurance in some capacity, whether it's Medicare Advantage directly, or supplemental products to help cover copays/deductibles or non-covered services like Dental. We'd have to go well beyond what Canada has to not have any of that.

[ON Progressive]

I feel like pro athletes aren't the tossup/Republican constituency that people here are saying they are.

The racial breakdown of the Big 4 sports leagues are (first 3 from this link, NHL from the title of this article, and finding out manually that about 30 of those 43 are black:
MLB (750 players) - 58% white, 32% Latino, 8% black
NBA (390 players) - 74% black, 21% other (multiracial I guess)/white
NFL (1696 players) - 70% black, 27% white
NHL (713 players) - 94% white, 4% black, 2% other

This means that only ~46% of Big Four athletes are non-Hispanic whites, and this is likely even lower among American citizen athletes given that the 94% white NHL is only ~27% American, and many NBA white players are Europeans. Not to mention the nearly entirely American NFL being 70% black.

Yeah, I think it's fair to say Biden will likely be carrying pro athletes (albeit they are an incredibly small and likely low turnout group).

[morgieb]

I feel like pro athletes aren't the tossup/Republican constituency that people here are saying they are.

The racial breakdown of the Big 4 sports leagues are (first 3 from this link, NHL from the title of this article, and finding out manually that about 30 of those 43 are black:
MLB (750 players) - 58% white, 32% Latino, 8% black
NBA (390 players) - 74% black, 21% other (multiracial I guess)/white
NFL (1696 players) - 70% black, 27% white
NHL (713 players) - 94% white, 4% black, 2% other

This means that only ~46% of Big Four athletes are non-Hispanic whites, and this is likely even lower among American citizen athletes given that the 94% white NHL is only ~27% American, and many NBA white players are Europeans. Not to mention the nearly entirely American NFL being 70% black.

Yeah, I think it's fair to say Biden will likely be carrying pro athletes (albeit they are an incredibly small and likely low turnout group).

The players themselves I think will lean Biden because of racial reasons, but I think the staff would lean Trump (then again you've got Steve Kerr and Gregg Popovich....)

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I think the insurance industry will be much more Republican than a lot of other posters.  What reason would a health insurance salesman have to vote Democratic when half of that party literally wants to abolish their job?  Finance will also probably be more Republican, especially those not based in NYC.

For insurance you’re right that the agents/salespeople are generally Republicans (and they probably comprise a majority of that industry’s employees), which is why the group as a whole will vote Republican. But there are likely more liberals in finance (speaking as an employee in that industry myself) than you’d think.

[BaldEagle1991]

I feel like pro athletes aren't the tossup/Republican constituency that people here are saying they are.

The racial breakdown of the Big 4 sports leagues are (first 3 from this link, NHL from the title of this article, and finding out manually that about 30 of those 43 are black:
MLB (750 players) - 58% white, 32% Latino, 8% black
NBA (390 players) - 74% black, 21% other (multiracial I guess)/white
NFL (1696 players) - 70% black, 27% white
NHL (713 players) - 94% white, 4% black, 2% other

This means that only ~46% of Big Four athletes are non-Hispanic whites, and this is likely even lower among American citizen athletes given that the 94% white NHL is only ~27% American, and many NBA white players are Europeans. Not to mention the nearly entirely American NFL being 70% black.

Yeah, I think it's fair to say Biden will likely be carrying pro athletes (albeit they are an incredibly small and likely low turnout group).

The majority of NHL players are White Canadians so they can’t vote, but knowing Canada, a large portion of them aren’t a fond of Trudeau. Meaning they’d be Republicans likely if they were Americans.