Perot in 1988

[Left Wing]

What if Ross Perot had made a bid in 1988 instead of 1992? How would he have impacted the election?

[Sir Mohamed]

Since NAFTA was still in its pre-stages in 1988, I doubt Perot would gain steam under the platform he ran later on. In the GE, I see him doing better than most other 3rd candidates in recent elections, but nowhere near the 1996 or even 1992 levels. Maybe something like 5% by taking slightly more from the GOP ticket, flipping 2-3 states to Dukakis as a result. HW still wins handily.

In a GOP primary, Mr. Perot would have lost obviously.

[Fuzzy Bear]

The issue of exporting jobs didn't really come to fruition until after Reagan left office.

[VPH]

He might not have been able to run on NAFTA, but the farm crisis would've been an opportunity for Perot. He could have run on rural issues perhaps. It's always surprised me that farming communities' anger turned into support for Dukakis instead of propelling a third-party bid. The swings towards Democrats in rural areas are pretty insane in 1988...

That said, Gephardt's 1988 primary campaign struck some tones similar to Perot in 1992 about deindustrialization.

[darklordoftech]

No doubt he would have run on stopping trade with Japan.

[brucejoel99]

Bush beat Dukakis by 7.7%. Perot got 18.9% in 1992. So, if one presumes that he can roughly win the same percentage in this alternate 1988 as he did in real life's 1992, then he'd have draw at least 70% of his supporters from Bush to throw the election to Dukakis. As has been pointed out numerous times over the years, though, Perot drew roughly equally from both parties in his 1992 run (certainly no more than, say, 60-40 in one direction or the other). I suppose he could make the race closer, but not close enough so as to reverse a landslide like 1988 was.