Why is Williamson county, Tennessee so wealthy?
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  Why is Williamson county, Tennessee so wealthy?
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iceman
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« on: April 28, 2020, 09:48:59 AM »

This county is among the top 20 wealthiest by median household income. What' the reason for this?

Another thing, why is this county so reliably republican, which is an oddity?
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #1 on: April 28, 2020, 10:14:07 AM »

1) Why is it surprising that it is so wealthy?  I have always thought of Nashville as a fairly affluent city...

2) Why is it REMOTELY surprising that it is so Republican??  Lol.  It is a wealthy and white county in a moderate-but-not-huge metro in the American South ... those areas are nearly all Republican, and the ones that aren't are centered around very diverse and much larger metros like Atlanta.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #2 on: April 28, 2020, 10:33:20 AM »

Williamson is so wealthy because it's incredibly monolithic - it's 94% White/Asian and 70% of the households are married couples (over 40% with children at home).  Williamson is probably the most populous county in the country that is still entirely a demographically-stereotypical 20th century Leave It to Beaver suburb.  For comparison, Cobb County is only 66% White/Asian and 50% married couple households.

I will also note that while Williamson County has the highest MHI in Tennessee, it is not the most "elite" Nashville suburb.  High-power doctors/attorneys/execs with Ivy League/private college education and Nashville "old money" are still concentrated closer to the city center (Belle Meade, Green Hils, etc.)  This is a common dynamic in most American metroes, but the slightly more suburban, extremely monolithic areas (like Williamson) will end up looking wealthier based on the high-percentage of dual-earning, single-family homes relative to more urban areas. 

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iceman
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« Reply #3 on: April 28, 2020, 10:47:53 AM »

1) Why is it surprising that it is so wealthy?  I have always thought of Nashville as a fairly affluent city...

2) Why is it REMOTELY surprising that it is so Republican??  Lol.  It is a wealthy and white county in a moderate-but-not-huge metro in the American South ... those areas are nearly all Republican, and the ones that aren't are centered around very diverse and much larger metros like Atlanta.

It's an oddity in the sense that among the top 20 wealthiest counties, only 2 are GOP-leaning and among them is Williamson.
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Sol
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« Reply #4 on: April 28, 2020, 11:03:20 AM »

I will also note that while Williamson County has the highest MHI in Tennessee, it is not the most "elite" Nashville suburb.  High-power doctors/attorneys/execs with Ivy League/private college education and Nashville "old money" are still concentrated closer to the city center (Belle Meade, Green Hils, etc.)  This is a common dynamic in most American metroes, but the slightly more suburban, extremely monolithic areas (like Williamson) will end up looking wealthier based on the high-percentage of dual-earning, single-family homes relative to more urban areas. 

Of course Williamson County is directly south of these places, which is why Williamson is the wealthy county and not Rutherford or Wilson.
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Libertas Vel Mors
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« Reply #5 on: April 28, 2020, 12:27:51 PM »

1) Why is it surprising that it is so wealthy?  I have always thought of Nashville as a fairly affluent city...

2) Why is it REMOTELY surprising that it is so Republican??  Lol.  It is a wealthy and white county in a moderate-but-not-huge metro in the American South ... those areas are nearly all Republican, and the ones that aren't are centered around very diverse and much larger metros like Atlanta.

It's an oddity in the sense that among the top 20 wealthiest counties, only 2 are GOP-leaning and among them is Williamson.

7/20 voted for Trump (Calvert MD, Stafford VA, Morris NJ, Hunterdon NJ, Williamson TN, Douglas CO)
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #6 on: April 28, 2020, 12:33:43 PM »

1) Why is it surprising that it is so wealthy?  I have always thought of Nashville as a fairly affluent city...

2) Why is it REMOTELY surprising that it is so Republican??  Lol.  It is a wealthy and white county in a moderate-but-not-huge metro in the American South ... those areas are nearly all Republican, and the ones that aren't are centered around very diverse and much larger metros like Atlanta.

It's an oddity in the sense that among the top 20 wealthiest counties, only 2 are GOP-leaning and among them is Williamson.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-income_counties_in_the_United_States

I'm not sure what data you were using, but I used this Wikipedia page that cited an American Community Survey from 2016.  This is just semantics, but according to this list, 8 voted for Trump in 2016:

Forsyth, GA: +47.60% GOP
Williamson, TN: +35.50% GOP
Calvert, MD: +18.40% GOP
Douglas, CO: +18.10% GOP
Delaware, OH: +16.10% GOP
Hunterdon, NJ: +13.80% GOP
Stafford, VA: +9.10% GOP
Morris, NJ: +4.40% GOP

Just for good measure, Nassau, NY was decently close (+5.40% DEM).  So, I would say the list is pretty split...?  Echoing back to my answer, a lot of the Democratic counties on that list are in large and diverse metro areas (every single one is either in the NYC area, DC/Baltimore area, Bay Area or Greater Los Angeles).  Of the ones not in those very large, cosmopolitan and diverse metro areas, every county on the list voted Republican.  So, it shouldn't be inherently surprising to you that a wealthy county would support the Republican Party, and it should be less surprising to you that a wealthy county outside of the biggest metros in the country would vote Republican.  I mean, exit polls show Republicans winning the wealthy vote in both 2016 AND 2018, and considering they lose wealthy counties in the biggest metros routinely ... those votes have to come from somewhere, right?  Throw on top that it's extremely White, in the South and (as Del said) mostly made up of married couples (a group consistently more Republican than the voting population at large), and it would be surprising if Williamson County WEREN'T very Republican.

As to your question for why it is so wealthy, I am not qualified to answer, but it looks like there are good ones up-thread.
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Wazza [INACTIVE]
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« Reply #7 on: April 29, 2020, 11:15:34 AM »

Gee... I have no idea why wealthy religious white people vote for the Conservative party... it’s a very strange place innit?HuhHuhHuh?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #8 on: April 29, 2020, 11:32:39 AM »

1) Why is it surprising that it is so wealthy?  I have always thought of Nashville as a fairly affluent city...

2) Why is it REMOTELY surprising that it is so Republican??  Lol.  It is a wealthy and white county in a moderate-but-not-huge metro in the American South ... those areas are nearly all Republican, and the ones that aren't are centered around very diverse and much larger metros like Atlanta.

It's an oddity in the sense that among the top 20 wealthiest counties, only 2 are GOP-leaning and among them is Williamson.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-income_counties_in_the_United_States

I'm not sure what data you were using, but I used this Wikipedia page that cited an American Community Survey from 2016.  This is just semantics, but according to this list, 8 voted for Trump in 2016:

Forsyth, GA: +47.60% GOP
Williamson, TN: +35.50% GOP
Calvert, MD: +18.40% GOP
Douglas, CO: +18.10% GOP
Delaware, OH: +16.10% GOP
Hunterdon, NJ: +13.80% GOP
Stafford, VA: +9.10% GOP
Morris, NJ: +4.40% GOP

Just for good measure, Nassau, NY was decently close (+5.40% DEM).  So, I would say the list is pretty split...?  Echoing back to my answer, a lot of the Democratic counties on that list are in large and diverse metro areas (every single one is either in the NYC area, DC/Baltimore area, Bay Area or Greater Los Angeles).  Of the ones not in those very large, cosmopolitan and diverse metro areas, every county on the list voted Republican.  So, it shouldn't be inherently surprising to you that a wealthy county would support the Republican Party, and it should be less surprising to you that a wealthy county outside of the biggest metros in the country would vote Republican.  I mean, exit polls show Republicans winning the wealthy vote in both 2016 AND 2018, and considering they lose wealthy counties in the biggest metros routinely ... those votes have to come from somewhere, right?  Throw on top that it's extremely White, in the South and (as Del said) mostly made up of married couples (a group consistently more Republican than the voting population at large), and it would be surprising if Williamson County WEREN'T very Republican.

As to your question for why it is so wealthy, I am not qualified to answer, but it looks like there are good ones up-thread.

TBH im not 100% sure about the wealthy vote being GOP for Trump in 2016 although I do believe it voted GOP in 2018, there was basically a 20-40 point swing in the wealthy vote across the nation, Highland park Dallas +65 Romney to +34 Trump,Mission Hills Kansas +40 romney to +0 Clinton,you can say sure these are all big metroes but even areas like River Hills WI was like +13 Romney and +9 Clinton, etc, or Bloomington Michigan etc even voted for Mccain but also Clinton. However most of these areas swung back to the GOP in 2018 for federal races besides Highland Park in the 2018 TX senate race.
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Roronoa D. Law
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« Reply #9 on: April 29, 2020, 01:42:54 PM »

Williamson, Forsyth, and the other counties listed in this thread are mostly exurban counties.  Exurbs usually skew conservative, white, and wealthy to begin with so it's more of a geographical coincidence than anything. The richest part of Nashville is bounded by I-440, I-65, Old Hickory, and TN-100. 
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Sol
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« Reply #10 on: April 30, 2020, 03:40:59 PM »

1) Why is it surprising that it is so wealthy?  I have always thought of Nashville as a fairly affluent city...

2) Why is it REMOTELY surprising that it is so Republican??  Lol.  It is a wealthy and white county in a moderate-but-not-huge metro in the American South ... those areas are nearly all Republican, and the ones that aren't are centered around very diverse and much larger metros like Atlanta.

It's an oddity in the sense that among the top 20 wealthiest counties, only 2 are GOP-leaning and among them is Williamson.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-income_counties_in_the_United_States

I'm not sure what data you were using, but I used this Wikipedia page that cited an American Community Survey from 2016.  This is just semantics, but according to this list, 8 voted for Trump in 2016:

Forsyth, GA: +47.60% GOP
Williamson, TN: +35.50% GOP
Calvert, MD: +18.40% GOP
Douglas, CO: +18.10% GOP
Delaware, OH: +16.10% GOP
Hunterdon, NJ: +13.80% GOP
Stafford, VA: +9.10% GOP
Morris, NJ: +4.40% GOP

Just for good measure, Nassau, NY was decently close (+5.40% DEM).  So, I would say the list is pretty split...?  Echoing back to my answer, a lot of the Democratic counties on that list are in large and diverse metro areas (every single one is either in the NYC area, DC/Baltimore area, Bay Area or Greater Los Angeles).  Of the ones not in those very large, cosmopolitan and diverse metro areas, every county on the list voted Republican.  So, it shouldn't be inherently surprising to you that a wealthy county would support the Republican Party, and it should be less surprising to you that a wealthy county outside of the biggest metros in the country would vote Republican.  I mean, exit polls show Republicans winning the wealthy vote in both 2016 AND 2018, and considering they lose wealthy counties in the biggest metros routinely ... those votes have to come from somewhere, right?  Throw on top that it's extremely White, in the South and (as Del said) mostly made up of married couples (a group consistently more Republican than the voting population at large), and it would be surprising if Williamson County WEREN'T very Republican.

As to your question for why it is so wealthy, I am not qualified to answer, but it looks like there are good ones up-thread.

TBH im not 100% sure about the wealthy vote being GOP for Trump in 2016 although I do believe it voted GOP in 2018, there was basically a 20-40 point swing in the wealthy vote across the nation, Highland park Dallas +65 Romney to +34 Trump,Mission Hills Kansas +40 romney to +0 Clinton,you can say sure these are all big metroes but even areas like River Hills WI was like +13 Romney and +9 Clinton, etc, or Bloomington Michigan etc even voted for Mccain but also Clinton. However most of these areas swung back to the GOP in 2018 for federal races besides Highland Park in the 2018 TX senate race.

That's fair, but it's not unreasonable to suspect that affluent in poorer areas vote differently, and possibly more Republican. An rich person in West Virginia probably votes differently from someone who lives in Darien or Grosse Pointe.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #11 on: April 30, 2020, 03:56:08 PM »

Williamson is so wealthy because it's incredibly monolithic - it's 94% White/Asian and 70% of the households are married couples (over 40% with children at home).  Williamson is probably the most populous county in the country that is still entirely a demographically-stereotypical 20th century Leave It to Beaver suburb.  For comparison, Cobb County is only 66% White/Asian and 50% married couple households.

I will also note that while Williamson County has the highest MHI in Tennessee, it is not the most "elite" Nashville suburb.  High-power doctors/attorneys/execs with Ivy League/private college education and Nashville "old money" are still concentrated closer to the city center (Belle Meade, Green Hils, etc.)  This is a common dynamic in most American metroes, but the slightly more suburban, extremely monolithic areas (like Williamson) will end up looking wealthier based on the high-percentage of dual-earning, single-family homes relative to more urban areas. 

Further flung suburbs have more of your high income, dual earner middle management and reasonably successful business types living in SFHs.  The floor is higher.

Most of the elite/old money, professionals, law partners and so on is in inner suburban counties, but they're more mixed.  Hence Montgomery and Fairfax are more "elite" than Loudoun County which has the higher median HH income.  Westchester is more "elite" than Somerset County NJ and so on.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #12 on: April 30, 2020, 04:07:10 PM »
« Edited: April 30, 2020, 10:54:13 PM by Tintrlvr »

Williamson is so wealthy because it's incredibly monolithic - it's 94% White/Asian and 70% of the households are married couples (over 40% with children at home).  Williamson is probably the most populous county in the country that is still entirely a demographically-stereotypical 20th century Leave It to Beaver suburb.  For comparison, Cobb County is only 66% White/Asian and 50% married couple households.

I will also note that while Williamson County has the highest MHI in Tennessee, it is not the most "elite" Nashville suburb.  High-power doctors/attorneys/execs with Ivy League/private college education and Nashville "old money" are still concentrated closer to the city center (Belle Meade, Green Hils, etc.)  This is a common dynamic in most American metroes, but the slightly more suburban, extremely monolithic areas (like Williamson) will end up looking wealthier based on the high-percentage of dual-earning, single-family homes relative to more urban areas.  

Further flung suburbs have more of your high income, dual earner middle management and reasonably successful business types living in SFHs.  The floor is higher.

Most of the elite/old money, professionals, law partners and so on is in inner suburban counties, but they're more mixed.  Hence Montgomery and Fairfax are more "elite" than Loudoun County which has the higher median HH income.  Westchester is more "elite" than Somerset County NJ and so on.

And the *really* elite live in the cities themselves, in places like the Upper East Side, Beacon Hill, Kalorama, Pacific Heights, etc.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #13 on: April 30, 2020, 04:26:32 PM »

Williamson is so wealthy because it's incredibly monolithic - it's 94% White/Asian and 70% of the households are married couples (over 40% with children at home).  Williamson is probably the most populous county in the country that is still entirely a demographically-stereotypical 20th century Leave It to Beaver suburb.  For comparison, Cobb County is only 66% White/Asian and 50% married couple households.

I will also note that while Williamson County has the highest MHI in Tennessee, it is not the most "elite" Nashville suburb.  High-power doctors/attorneys/execs with Ivy League/private college education and Nashville "old money" are still concentrated closer to the city center (Belle Meade, Green Hils, etc.)  This is a common dynamic in most American metroes, but the slightly more suburban, extremely monolithic areas (like Williamson) will end up looking wealthier based on the high-percentage of dual-earning, single-family homes relative to more urban areas.  

Further flung suburbs have more of your high income, dual earner middle management and reasonably successful business types living in SFHs.  The floor is higher.

Most of the elite/old money, professionals, law partners and so on is in inner suburban counties, but they're more mixed.  Hence Montgomery and Fairfax are more "elite" than Loudoun County which has the higher median HH income.  Westchester is more "elite" than Somerset County NJ and so on.

And the *really* elite live in the cities themselves, in places like Lenox Hill, Beacon Hill, Kalorama, Pacific Heights, etc.

Or at the very least basically within the city but a seperate town such as Highland Park Dallas or Bellaire Houston.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #14 on: April 30, 2020, 07:39:16 PM »

Or Beverly Hills or Westmount.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #15 on: April 30, 2020, 09:45:15 PM »


Or, most relevant to this thread, in Belle Meade.
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« Reply #16 on: May 10, 2020, 02:53:07 PM »

I am just seeing this now and agree with most of the points made, but I want to give my own opinions as this forum's sole resident of Williamson County (that I know of).  Also, I had a really long post typed out that a lost somehow just as I was about to hit reply.

-Williamson County does have a high MHI, but it is not really "elite".  As others have noted, Belle Meade is the most elite area of metro Nashville.  Belle Meade also has a higher MHI than anywhere in Williamson County, but it is not as apparent in larger statistics due to a wider diversity in income throughout Davidson County.  Williamson County actually isn't that pretentious or anything like that, even though people are very comfortable financially, for the most part.  It's more of an upper-middle class mentality than an extremely wealthy mentality for most people here.  There are likely a lot of members of the so-called 1%, but I suspect relatively few members of the 0.1%, which is a major difference in terms of attitudes and lifestyles.

-Williamson County is very religious, much moreso than most high-income suburban areas.  Obviously, a lot of that is due to the location in the South, but Williamson County also does not have a lot of the factors that is driving Davidson County to be much more secular and socially liberal.  It's no secret that Nashville is associated with a sort-of party culture.  But, that doesn't really make it to Williamson County because the people moving to Nashville for those reasons are not living in Williamson County both due to the distance from Lower Broadway as well as the fact that apartments are more expensive in Williamson than Davidson (outside of Downtown Nashville).  Williamson County is very socially conservative (for instance, it voted for a ballot initative that could ban abortion and explicitly said that there could be no exceptions should Roe ever be overturned), and churches play a major role in the fabric of life.

-Like most high-income suburbs, Williamson County did trend significantly Democratic in 2016, going from 73-26 Romney to 64-29 Trump.  However, unlike some suburban areas more talked about, Williamson County did not really trend further to the left in 2018.  Now, if you look at 2018 trend maps, you will see a strong Democratic trend, but that is because they use 2012 and 2014 as starting points for 2018, rather than 2016.  Governor Bill Lee won Williamson by 11 points more than his statewide margin, whereas President Trump only won it by 9 points more.  There is also a precinct that covers areas adjacent to Downtown Franklin with significant non-white populations (in an otherwise very non-diverse county).  Hillary Clinton came within 2 votes of carrying it, whereas Bill Lee won it 52-48%.  Downtown Franklin also went from 53-47% Trump to 55-45% Lee, even as Lee was doing 9 points worse statewide.  Governor Lee is also from Williamson County in fairness, but a similar pattern would hold true for Mark Green (who is not from Williamson) in his race for the House.  This same phenomenon is NOT observable in the more "elite" suburbs in Davidson County.

-There are a couple areas in Williamson County that I do worry as a Republican about, one on the shorter-term and one on the longer-term.  The shorter term concern is areas like Spring Hill on the Maury County line that are transitioning from rural/exurban to truly suburban.  I divided Williamson County into three regions (Core Brentwood/Franklin Suburban, Other Suburban, and Rural) to analyze how the swings differed in 2018, and the results were interesting (these are done with the 2-party vote because it's easier):

Core Brentwood/Franklin: 65.7% Trump, 63.6% Lee
Other Suburban: 71.6% Trump, 67.9% Lee
Rural: 74.3% Trump, 72.3% Lee
Statewide: 63.6% Trump, 60.7% Lee

So, most of Williamson County swung two points, while the state was swinging three.  But, the Other Suburban areas swung four.  My current hypothesis is that these areas are simply transitioning from looking more like the rural areas to looking more like Brentwood and Franklin.

The area that is less clear on the short term but that may hold more long-term promise for Democrats is an area of Northeast Franklin referred to as Cool Springs.  Long story short, Cool Springs was nothing but fields in 1990.  In the early '90s, a mall opened up in this area.  Over the decades since, tons of restaurants, stores, offices, and hotels popped up around this commercial center.  Nissan even located their North American Headquarters to Cool Springs.  However, none of this changed the voting patterns of the area much because relatively few people actually lived in Cool Springs, apart from a couple apartment complexes.  However, in the last 5 years or so, more and more apartments have been built in the area.  While there is likely to be some level of self-selection about who chooses to move to Williamson County versus Nashville, these will certainly lead towards this area of the county becoming younger and more diverse.  Some of these buildings have even opened since the 2018 midterms, so it's tough to see what the impact may be- and, based on my anecdotal experience living in one of these that opened in November 2018, I see more Republican than Democratic stickers on cars in the parking lot, but still.

The Cool Springs area is not legally defined and also does not fit neatly into a precinct (not to mention the fact that its boundaries continually grow), but the two party votes for the four precincts that are at least partially in Cool Springs went from 65.7% Trump to 62.3% Lee, a swing much more in line with the "Other Suburban" areas than the rest of Franklin.  If the future is actually 2016 trends continuing for a while (which I kind of doubt), Cool Springs would be one of the first areas in the county to actually flip.
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vitoNova
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« Reply #17 on: May 12, 2020, 06:27:58 PM »

Isn't there a county somewhere around Yellowstone where nobody knows where the wealth comes from?  lulz
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