What does a new Democrat-dominated party system look like?

[R.P. McM]

So the coalition would be exactly what it looks like now

I'm talking about something sufficient to lock down the electoral college by New Deal Coalition margins. Something to end the polarization keeping the map stable and balanced, where the Democrats become a true majority party. As evidenced by Trump, a Republican can and will win in this environment given the right drop in turnout.

Democrats will never be able to win by New Deal-era margins as long as the two parties remain as ideologically sorted as they are today.  The Dem's massive wins in 1932-44 required the votes of conservative, Southern Democrats and agrarians.  

Right, and this is a thread about a hypothetical new party system in which that's possible.

Well then it's not possible unless Democrats are serious about courting Southern Evangelicals.  

Democrats wouldn't be able to get New Deal coalition margins again without making at least some inroads with white Southern Evangelicals, but there are definitely scenarios where they could become the definitive majority party on the national stage without them. Many white Evangelical political demands are already increasingly becoming out of alignment with much of the country.

If the Democrats play into the demands of Evangelicals then they lose another block of voters simple enough, what I think would be interesting is a party in the future where the Democrats and Republicans have both collapsed that is primarily composed of African American + White evangelical voters which would be practically unbeatable in the South, and it could make a play at many western and midwestern states.

Equally unbeatable: a coalition of Protestants and Catholics in Northern Ireland. Gee, I wonder why that hasn't happened? I'm not trying to be dismissive, but maybe we should focus on groups that haven't been at each others' throats for more than a century.

[R.P. McM]

I think largely it would involve gaining a lock on the demographics already trending Democrat, that is suburban white voters, and enormous margins with younger voters who will become a larger part of the electorate as they grow older. Geographically I think a key election to look at would be Alabama Senate 2017. Counties like Tuscaloosa and Madison would have to be consistently (non-Atlas) blue, and minority turnout would have to be consistently high. For Democrats to actually dominate a party system like this, results like in Alabama would need to be a consistent thing in other now reliably red states. Counties like Tulsa OK and Greenville SC would have to flip, with Republicans really having any standing only in white rural areas.

Of course this is all hypothetical. The counterpoint for Republicans would be to look at Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan win maps in Massachusetts and Maryland. Essentially it boils down to if either party can completely win over white suburban voters, then that party would dominate.

If Democrats can make that sort of coalition in the south sustainable combined with the religious right fading in relevance, say by succeeding in getting roe v wade overturned and essentially winning on abortion after they already lost on gay marriage I could see it.

The religious right is organized around very broad-based racial and cultural grievances, not the singular issue of abortion, which conservative Protestants discovered they cared about in the 1970's. So that would never fly. Moreover, Northern cosmopolitans would never accept such an outcome, so the fight would continue indefinitely.

[R.P. McM]

I think largely it would involve gaining a lock on the demographics already trending Democrat, that is suburban white voters, and enormous margins with younger voters who will become a larger part of the electorate as they grow older. Geographically I think a key election to look at would be Alabama Senate 2017. Counties like Tuscaloosa and Madison would have to be consistently (non-Atlas) blue, and minority turnout would have to be consistently high. For Democrats to actually dominate a party system like this, results like in Alabama would need to be a consistent thing in other now reliably red states. Counties like Tulsa OK and Greenville SC would have to flip, with Republicans really having any standing only in white rural areas.

Of course this is all hypothetical. The counterpoint for Republicans would be to look at Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan win maps in Massachusetts and Maryland. Essentially it boils down to if either party can completely win over white suburban voters, then that party would dominate.

If Democrats can make that sort of coalition in the south sustainable combined with the religious right fading in relevance, say by succeeding in getting roe v wade overturned and essentially winning on abortion after they already lost on gay marriage I could see it.

The religious right is organized around very broad based racial and cultural grievances, not the singular issue of abortion, which conservative Protestants discovered they cared about in the 1970's. So that would never fly. Moreover, Northern cosmopolitans would never accept such an outcome, so the fight would continue indefinitely.

Two things I heard-
1) It was either Jerry Falwell or Pat Robertson who once said that abortion was a Catholic issue as late as 1970?
2) Any outcome where Roe gets overruled PROBABLY makes abortion a bigger issue at least for a few years. Until and unless secular progressives or traditional nationalists are willing to say "it's the law of the land. It's that way for a reason, OK? Period!" and cede the issue , we will see an major policy changes causing a lot of resistance.
3) It will be a HUGE task to get working class rural people to assimilate more into broader society, whether they are minorities or white. Especially to the point where they just see themselves as working people at the level they don't feel guilt voting for their self-interests.

I think this map (pre-Roe) is extremely telling:



RED = Illegal
PURPLE = Rape exemption
BLUE = Health exemption
GREEN = Rape/Health/Viability exemption
YELLOW = Legal