What does a new Democrat-dominated party system look like?
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  What does a new Democrat-dominated party system look like?
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Agonized-Statism
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« on: April 27, 2020, 07:40:51 PM »

With the present crisis and demographic shifts in mind, starting this decade, what would a realignment toward an all-encompassing, undefeatable Democratic coalition capable of pulling off successive landslides look like on the map? Who would be included in a modern voting bloc as large as the New Deal Coalition? How long could factionalism be kept from spoiling elections?

For contrarians, how would a Republican equivalent to this scenario work?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #1 on: April 28, 2020, 02:34:23 AM »
« Edited: April 28, 2020, 02:46:40 AM by Cory Booker »



What a 1980 landslide look in 2020 after 4 yrs of Trump due to 20 percent unemployment 2012 scenario



Senate map 2020




R Prez map 2020 2016 scenario




R Senators
















Neutral scenario


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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #2 on: April 28, 2020, 03:32:05 AM »

there is a lot of lasting damage the current GOP has done that will take years to correct (the courts, the environment, gun control, civil rights, etc.) so I think it will last longer than people think.  The GOP is also too hard headed to change their ways.  Look at the idiots they keep running in Virginia knowing they aren't electable.  So the coalition would be exactly what it looks like now and Democrats will probably dominate politics for a while, with Republicans occasionally winning the senate.  But they probably won't put garbage politicians like Mitch McConnell in charge.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: April 28, 2020, 07:11:26 AM »

Once the Crts show accountability towards Trump, even putting him behind bars for 40 mnths like the rest of his lawyers will allow the Rs to recover from Trumpism.

Only R Govs and Nixon have had criminal charges brought against them. Reagan and both Bushes had corruption charges against them, it's time to show Rs accountability
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #4 on: April 28, 2020, 11:15:49 AM »

So the coalition would be exactly what it looks like now

I'm talking about something sufficient to lock down the electoral college by New Deal Coalition margins. Something to end the polarization keeping the map stable and balanced, where the Democrats become a true majority party. As evidenced by Trump, a Republican can and will win in this environment given the right drop in turnout.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #5 on: April 28, 2020, 11:21:52 AM »

So the coalition would be exactly what it looks like now

I'm talking about something sufficient to lock down the electoral college by New Deal Coalition margins. Something to end the polarization keeping the map stable and balanced, where the Democrats become a true majority party. As evidenced by Trump, a Republican can and will win in this environment given the right drop in turnout.

Democrats will never be able to win by New Deal-era margins as long as the two parties remain as ideologically sorted as they are today.  The Dem's massive wins in 1932-44 required the votes of conservative, Southern Democrats and agrarians. 
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #6 on: April 28, 2020, 11:41:25 AM »

So the coalition would be exactly what it looks like now

I'm talking about something sufficient to lock down the electoral college by New Deal Coalition margins. Something to end the polarization keeping the map stable and balanced, where the Democrats become a true majority party. As evidenced by Trump, a Republican can and will win in this environment given the right drop in turnout.

Democrats will never be able to win by New Deal-era margins as long as the two parties remain as ideologically sorted as they are today.  The Dem's massive wins in 1932-44 required the votes of conservative, Southern Democrats and agrarians. 

Right, and this is a thread about a hypothetical new party system in which that's possible.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #7 on: April 28, 2020, 11:58:11 AM »

So the coalition would be exactly what it looks like now

I'm talking about something sufficient to lock down the electoral college by New Deal Coalition margins. Something to end the polarization keeping the map stable and balanced, where the Democrats become a true majority party. As evidenced by Trump, a Republican can and will win in this environment given the right drop in turnout.

Democrats will never be able to win by New Deal-era margins as long as the two parties remain as ideologically sorted as they are today.  The Dem's massive wins in 1932-44 required the votes of conservative, Southern Democrats and agrarians. 

Right, and this is a thread about a hypothetical new party system in which that's possible.

Well then it's not possible unless Democrats are serious about courting Southern Evangelicals. 
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clever but short
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« Reply #8 on: April 28, 2020, 05:50:11 PM »

I think largely it would involve gaining a lock on the demographics already trending Democrat, that is suburban white voters, and enormous margins with younger voters who will become a larger part of the electorate as they grow older. Geographically I think a key election to look at would be Alabama Senate 2017. Counties like Tuscaloosa and Madison would have to be consistently (non-Atlas) blue, and minority turnout would have to be consistently high. For Democrats to actually dominate a party system like this, results like in Alabama would need to be a consistent thing in other now reliably red states. Counties like Tulsa OK and Greenville SC would have to flip, with Republicans really having any standing only in white rural areas.

Of course this is all hypothetical. The counterpoint for Republicans would be to look at Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan win maps in Massachusetts and Maryland. Essentially it boils down to if either party can completely win over white suburban voters, then that party would dominate.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: May 02, 2020, 10:24:56 PM »

The country is on the verge of Option 1 now, since COVID 19 has got the best of Trump's stellar economy and it looks like a 2008 scenario
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Orser67
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« Reply #10 on: May 05, 2020, 09:28:07 AM »

I don't think Democrats will have a path to getting back to a 1930s-level of dominance. But I could still see them becoming the long-term majority party if they can maintain their margins with non-white voters, improve their margins with college-educated whites, and manage to avoid having the bottom completely drop out with college-educated whites.

The alternate path would be to focus more on improving margins/turnout with non-white voters, but that would still potentially leave them at a disadvantage in the Senate.
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Asenath Waite
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« Reply #11 on: May 05, 2020, 03:08:06 PM »

I think largely it would involve gaining a lock on the demographics already trending Democrat, that is suburban white voters, and enormous margins with younger voters who will become a larger part of the electorate as they grow older. Geographically I think a key election to look at would be Alabama Senate 2017. Counties like Tuscaloosa and Madison would have to be consistently (non-Atlas) blue, and minority turnout would have to be consistently high. For Democrats to actually dominate a party system like this, results like in Alabama would need to be a consistent thing in other now reliably red states. Counties like Tulsa OK and Greenville SC would have to flip, with Republicans really having any standing only in white rural areas.

Of course this is all hypothetical. The counterpoint for Republicans would be to look at Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan win maps in Massachusetts and Maryland. Essentially it boils down to if either party can completely win over white suburban voters, then that party would dominate.

If Democrats can make that sort of coalition in the south sustainable combined with the religious right fading in relevance, say by succeeding in getting roe v wade overturned and essentially winning on abortion after they already lost on gay marriage I could see it.
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #12 on: May 05, 2020, 03:52:02 PM »
« Edited: May 05, 2020, 03:55:51 PM by Tartarus Sauce »

So the coalition would be exactly what it looks like now

I'm talking about something sufficient to lock down the electoral college by New Deal Coalition margins. Something to end the polarization keeping the map stable and balanced, where the Democrats become a true majority party. As evidenced by Trump, a Republican can and will win in this environment given the right drop in turnout.

Democrats will never be able to win by New Deal-era margins as long as the two parties remain as ideologically sorted as they are today.  The Dem's massive wins in 1932-44 required the votes of conservative, Southern Democrats and agrarians.  

Right, and this is a thread about a hypothetical new party system in which that's possible.

Well then it's not possible unless Democrats are serious about courting Southern Evangelicals.  

Democrats wouldn't be able to get New Deal coalition margins again without making at least some inroads with white Southern Evangelicals, but there are definitely scenarios where they could become the definitive majority party on the national stage without them. Many white Evangelical political demands are already increasingly becoming out of alignment with much of the country.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: May 08, 2020, 02:35:42 AM »

The  Democrats will be checked by the conservative Crts, due to fact LGBT was a factor as well as Gun rights in 2004 and 2016 Prez races.

But aside from that, if DC statehood and Campaign finance reform is affirmed by the Maverick CJ Robert's CRT whom affirmed Obamacare, there will be a dominant D party. Robert's may become the Kennedy that retired from the CRT In 2017
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Sumner 1868
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« Reply #14 on: May 08, 2020, 02:46:43 PM »

Demographics aren't destiny.
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« Reply #15 on: May 08, 2020, 07:42:27 PM »

So the coalition would be exactly what it looks like now

I'm talking about something sufficient to lock down the electoral college by New Deal Coalition margins. Something to end the polarization keeping the map stable and balanced, where the Democrats become a true majority party. As evidenced by Trump, a Republican can and will win in this environment given the right drop in turnout.

Democrats will never be able to win by New Deal-era margins as long as the two parties remain as ideologically sorted as they are today.  The Dem's massive wins in 1932-44 required the votes of conservative, Southern Democrats and agrarians.  

Right, and this is a thread about a hypothetical new party system in which that's possible.

Well then it's not possible unless Democrats are serious about courting Southern Evangelicals.  

Democrats wouldn't be able to get New Deal coalition margins again without making at least some inroads with white Southern Evangelicals, but there are definitely scenarios where they could become the definitive majority party on the national stage without them. Many white Evangelical political demands are already increasingly becoming out of alignment with much of the country.


If the Democrats play into the demands of Evangelicals then they lose another block of voters simple enough, what I think would be interesting is a party in the future where the Democrats and Republicans have both collapsed that is primarily composed of African American + White evangelical voters which would be practically unbeatable in the South, and it could make a play at many western and midwestern states.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #16 on: May 08, 2020, 08:18:57 PM »


No one's saying that, I'm asking what a near future party system where Democrats make up a definite majority would look like.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: May 10, 2020, 04:11:26 AM »

It's obvious the Reagan Revolution is gone since the Obama era. Technology has made income inequality great and Rs maintain a Wallstreet image, while Dems maintain a Mainstreet image.
Once the Boomers were retired in 2008, Generation X took over and Dems have been the majority party. Trump was lucky to win, but the R party after Trump with Kevin McCarthy and not Boehner or Ryan isnt a dominant party and Rs have to take over House in order to be dominant
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Person Man
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« Reply #18 on: May 12, 2020, 02:25:09 PM »

So the coalition would be exactly what it looks like now

I'm talking about something sufficient to lock down the electoral college by New Deal Coalition margins. Something to end the polarization keeping the map stable and balanced, where the Democrats become a true majority party. As evidenced by Trump, a Republican can and will win in this environment given the right drop in turnout.

Democrats will never be able to win by New Deal-era margins as long as the two parties remain as ideologically sorted as they are today.  The Dem's massive wins in 1932-44 required the votes of conservative, Southern Democrats and agrarians.  

Right, and this is a thread about a hypothetical new party system in which that's possible.

Well then it's not possible unless Democrats are serious about courting Southern Evangelicals.  

Democrats wouldn't be able to get New Deal coalition margins again without making at least some inroads with white Southern Evangelicals, but there are definitely scenarios where they could become the definitive majority party on the national stage without them. Many white Evangelical political demands are already increasingly becoming out of alignment with much of the country.


If the Democrats play into the demands of Evangelicals then they lose another block of voters simple enough, what I think would be interesting is a party in the future where the Democrats and Republicans have both collapsed that is primarily composed of African American + White evangelical voters which would be practically unbeatable in the South, and it could make a play at many western and midwestern states.
Like an American Solidarity Party that dominates the south and perhaps the southern wheat and corn belts?

What about this map?
https://www.270towin.com/maps/npLzn

But back to the original Democrat-controlled system. I just think these things need to happen:

1) Finding a way to keep the party together and turning them out
2) Roe v. Wade being effectively overruled and being given the luxury of being flexible on abortion in a way that will turn out the base and not scare off swing voters. This is especially the case with Republicans now having to defend their policies. Maybe it will make
3) easier. Which is to find a way a to keep the R base from spamming the polls. 

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« Reply #19 on: May 15, 2020, 12:26:38 AM »

This is kind of building up/actually happening.  The problem for them was that the rustbelt flipped before the sunbelt did.  But I think they could maintain this coalition for a few cycles before new divisions in the electorate occur.  They could have a huge margin in the house with a lot of seats on the two coasts + Illinois.  Plus a small margin in the senate.  It would probably happen all at once. Basically like what happened in Virginia.  They could have a sustainable majority based on just urban/suburban states and districts the way Democrats do in Virginia without any real rural support at all.  Which means they could just push through their agenda (especially on social issues) without fracture. 
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #20 on: May 15, 2020, 12:44:19 AM »

This is kind of building up/actually happening.  The problem for them was that the rustbelt flipped before the sunbelt did.  But I think they could maintain this coalition for a few cycles before new divisions in the electorate occur.  They could have a huge margin in the house with a lot of seats on the two coasts + Illinois.  Plus a small margin in the senate.  It would probably happen all at once. Basically like what happened in Virginia.  They could have a sustainable majority based on just urban/suburban states and districts the way Democrats do in Virginia without any real rural support at all.  Which means they could just push through their agenda (especially on social issues) without fracture.  

There's one problem with this theory: urban/suburban states have the Senate somewhat weighted against them. Given how many pro-filibuster Senate Democrats remain, they are not going to be able to push through their agenda without fracture for a long time.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #21 on: May 15, 2020, 12:53:44 AM »

This is kind of building up/actually happening.  The problem for them was that the rustbelt flipped before the sunbelt did.  But I think they could maintain this coalition for a few cycles before new divisions in the electorate occur.  They could have a huge margin in the house with a lot of seats on the two coasts + Illinois.  Plus a small margin in the senate.  It would probably happen all at once. Basically like what happened in Virginia.  They could have a sustainable majority based on just urban/suburban states and districts the way Democrats do in Virginia without any real rural support at all.  Which means they could just push through their agenda (especially on social issues) without fracture.  

There's one problem with this theory: urban/suburban states have the Senate somewhat weighted against them. Given how many pro-filibuster Senate Democrats remain, they are not going to be able to push through their agenda without fracture for a long time.

Not who you were responding to but, given how many Senate Republicans said they were 'pro-filibuster' until the time came to actually put up or shut up, I'm not so quick to give "pro-filibuster Senate Democrats" the benefit of the doubt in what they're saying now being what will end up reflected in their inevitable vote to further limit or outright end the filibuster.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #22 on: May 15, 2020, 12:56:50 AM »
« Edited: May 15, 2020, 01:00:01 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

This is kind of building up/actually happening.  The problem for them was that the rustbelt flipped before the sunbelt did.  But I think they could maintain this coalition for a few cycles before new divisions in the electorate occur.  They could have a huge margin in the house with a lot of seats on the two coasts + Illinois.  Plus a small margin in the senate.  It would probably happen all at once. Basically like what happened in Virginia.  They could have a sustainable majority based on just urban/suburban states and districts the way Democrats do in Virginia without any real rural support at all.  Which means they could just push through their agenda (especially on social issues) without fracture.  

There's one problem with this theory: urban/suburban states have the Senate somewhat weighted against them. Given how many pro-filibuster Senate Democrats remain, they are not going to be able to push through their agenda without fracture for a long time.

Not who you were responding to but, given how many Senate Republicans said they were 'pro-filibuster' until the time came to actually put up or shut up, I'm not so quick to give "pro-filibuster Senate Democrats" the benefit of the doubt in what they're saying now being what will end up reflected in their inevitable vote to further limit or outright end the filibuster.

McConnell maintains a tight grip on his caucus and ending the filibuster for short-term political gain follows a long, Republican arc towards the centralisation and amassing of power. This doesn't hold as true for the Democrats (in part because pro-filibuster Senate Dems can run in primaries on Compromise/Bipartisanship and still get some credit for it), and Schumer has less sway over his caucus' moderate heroes.

I think there will eventually be filibuster reform, but it'll be an expansion of budget reconciliation rather than the end of the legislative filibuster for non-economic issues.
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« Reply #23 on: May 18, 2020, 09:00:58 AM »

This is kind of building up/actually happening.  The problem for them was that the rustbelt flipped before the sunbelt did.  But I think they could maintain this coalition for a few cycles before new divisions in the electorate occur.  They could have a huge margin in the house with a lot of seats on the two coasts + Illinois.  Plus a small margin in the senate.  It would probably happen all at once. Basically like what happened in Virginia.  They could have a sustainable majority based on just urban/suburban states and districts the way Democrats do in Virginia without any real rural support at all.  Which means they could just push through their agenda (especially on social issues) without fracture. 

There's one problem with this theory: urban/suburban states have the Senate somewhat weighted against them. Given how many pro-filibuster Senate Democrats remain, they are not going to be able to push through their agenda without fracture for a long time.

Not who you were responding to but, given how many Senate Republicans said they were 'pro-filibuster' until the time came to actually put up or shut up, I'm not so quick to give "pro-filibuster Senate Democrats" the benefit of the doubt in what they're saying now being what will end up reflected in their inevitable vote to further limit or outright end the filibuster.

McConnell maintains a tight grip on his caucus and ending the filibuster for short-term political gain follows a long, Republican arc towards the centralisation and amassing of power. This doesn't hold as true for the Democrats (in part because pro-filibuster Senate Dems can run in primaries on Compromise/Bipartisanship and still get some credit for it), and Schumer has less sway over his caucus' moderate heroes.

I think there will eventually be filibuster reform, but it'll be an expansion of budget reconciliation rather than the end of the legislative filibuster for non-economic issues.

Those types of moderates are having a harder and harder of a time getting and staying in Congress.
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R.P. McM
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« Reply #24 on: May 18, 2020, 10:39:41 AM »
« Edited: May 18, 2020, 09:34:19 PM by R.P. McM »

So the coalition would be exactly what it looks like now

I'm talking about something sufficient to lock down the electoral college by New Deal Coalition margins. Something to end the polarization keeping the map stable and balanced, where the Democrats become a true majority party. As evidenced by Trump, a Republican can and will win in this environment given the right drop in turnout.

Democrats will never be able to win by New Deal-era margins as long as the two parties remain as ideologically sorted as they are today.  The Dem's massive wins in 1932-44 required the votes of conservative, Southern Democrats and agrarians.  

Right, and this is a thread about a hypothetical new party system in which that's possible.

Well then it's not possible unless Democrats are serious about courting Southern Evangelicals.  

Democrats wouldn't be able to get New Deal coalition margins again without making at least some inroads with white Southern Evangelicals, but there are definitely scenarios where they could become the definitive majority party on the national stage without them. Many white Evangelical political demands are already increasingly becoming out of alignment with much of the country.


If the Democrats play into the demands of Evangelicals then they lose another block of voters simple enough, what I think would be interesting is a party in the future where the Democrats and Republicans have both collapsed that is primarily composed of African American + White evangelical voters which would be practically unbeatable in the South, and it could make a play at many western and midwestern states.

Equally unbeatable: a coalition of Protestants and Catholics in Northern Ireland. Gee, I wonder why that hasn't happened? I'm not trying to be dismissive, but maybe we should focus on groups that haven't been at each others' throats for more than a century.
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