So the coalition would be exactly what it looks like now
I'm talking about something sufficient to lock down the electoral college by New Deal Coalition margins. Something to end the polarization keeping the map stable and balanced, where the Democrats become a true majority party. As evidenced by Trump, a Republican can and will win in this environment given the right drop in turnout.
Democrats will never be able to win by New Deal-era margins as long as the two parties remain as ideologically sorted as they are today. The Dem's massive wins in 1932-44 required the votes of conservative, Southern Democrats and agrarians.
Right, and this is a thread about a hypothetical new party system in which that's possible.
Well then it's not possible unless Democrats are serious about courting Southern Evangelicals.
Democrats wouldn't be able to get New Deal coalition margins again without making at least some inroads with white Southern Evangelicals, but there are definitely scenarios where they could become the definitive majority party on the national stage without them. Many white Evangelical political demands are already increasingly becoming out of alignment with much of the country.
If the Democrats play into the demands of Evangelicals then they lose another block of voters simple enough, what I think would be interesting is a party in the future where the Democrats and Republicans have both collapsed that is primarily composed of African American + White evangelical voters which would be practically unbeatable in the South, and it could make a play at many western and midwestern states.
