Which party will rule again earlier, British Labour or SPD?

[buritobr]

Both center-left parties had the chief of government in the turn of the 21th century, Tony Blair and Gehrard Schröder, the time of the Third Way.
SPD is still a junior partner of a coalition, but both parties were very far to win elections in the 2010s.  Which of these center-left parties will have the chief of government (prime minister, chancellor) earlier?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

the SPD's decline is way more terminal than UK Labour, and the UK has first-past-the-post, which encourages a two-party system. Hence, UK Labour.

[CumbrianLefty]

So being a junior government partner doesn't actually count as "ruling"?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

No one in the next 20 years. But to answer the question Labour. But BoJo will safely hold office for the next 10 years at least. He's going to be remembered as the best PM Britain ever had after Churchill and Attlee. But to all times come an end, and SPD is literally dead. I mean, the greens have taken control as the major left-wing party in German politics, and that won't change. SPD will have to reform, either becoming a third way Macronista party or having a fairly leftist PM candidate on the ballot. In the first case SPD stops existing, in the second case, they are in a competition with Die Linke and Grunen. And if Grunen and Die Linke play it smart, they can become the major leftist force in German politics. I don't see that happening in the UK where Tories will poll around 50-60% of the vote, and Labour below 30%, and some support going to lib dems.

[Lechasseur]

I don't think either of them will be back soon, but Labour will be back in government one day, I'm guessing around 2029-2030 or so.

The SPD on the other hand will never lead a government again, the best they can hope for is being the Greens' or the CDU's junior coalition partner.

So Labour ofc is the answer to this question.

[CumbrianLefty]

As ever, "never" is an awfully long time.

[beaver2.0]

I misread this as SDP and feared there was some SDP surge in Britain.

[jaymichaud]

Labor have no chance, but SPD are polling like half of what CDU is. They're better off putting their faith in the Greens.

[Santander]

He's going to be remembered as the best PM Britain ever had after Churchill and Attlee.

LOL

[Antonio the Sixth]

Clearly Labour

[CumbrianLefty]

He's going to be remembered as the best PM Britain ever had after Churchill and Attlee.

LOL

That was a genuinely bizarre post in lots of ways.

[Pericles]

I don't know much about German politics, but there is some hope for UK Labour. 2019 was an unusual election, as both Boris and the Tories weren't very popular but Corbyn was toxic both due to Brexit and his broader unsuitability. I'm not sure how strong Keir Starmer is yet, but I am sure he will be much stronger than Corbyn. Another benefit the Tories had in 2019 was that Boris managed to take away some of their own liabilities from their time in government, by making it seem like a new government and promising to invest in public services.

By 2024, the Tories will have been weighed down by their 14 year record (and so far they've done a pretty bad job), governments get more unpopular as the years go on with in recent decades Labour lasting 13 years in power and the Tories lasting for 18 years. Coronavirus could also be a factor-with the inept Tory response being remembered and the resulting recession/depression's length and pain is uncertain. Perhaps even more important, it will bust a huge hole in the budget and could provoke the Tories to enact a new round of austerity, not ending austerity but making the pain even worse. Maybe Boris will be smart enough not to do this, but if he is forced into it that gives Labour a big gift so they can promise to revive public services (remember a revolt against austerity nearly got Corbyn into 10 Downing Street in 2017).

The 2019 majority is formidable, but in seat terms it is roughly similar to the majority and seat margin over the Tories that Labour had in 2005. A Labour majority is unlikely as some pretty monstrous swings would be required for that, but a hung parliament resulting in Prime Minister Keir Starmer, perhaps even with Labour as the largest party, is possible. I'm not necessarily predicting this, it is far too early to say and I could easily see Starmer being a Miliband/Kinnock who falls short and the Tories get a bare majority similar to 1992 or 2015.

British politics has been incredibly volatile in recent years. The Tories were polling at 20% a year ago. So it is utter foolishness to think the Tories are destined to rule for another decade or more. The UK Labour Party has a viable path back to government at the next election, it's not easy and Boris could make it narrower or wider, but it exists.

[CumbrianLefty]

Excellent post there, sir.

[Continential]

this post aged well even if I voted Labour.

[CumbrianLefty]

Which just reminds us to expect the unexpected, the comments made above about UK politics still are relevant even if that may at times seem unlikely at present.

[buritobr]

I was planning to bump this topic if Scholz win, but Ishan was faster. Maybe he was too fast. Laschet can still lead a Jamaica coalition.

[Former President tack50]

I will note that current polling for the SPD (circa 25%) would still be the 3rd worst result ever for the SPD, only narrowly beating 2017 or 2009 by a couple percentage points. If Merkel had ran again (I am baffled she kept her pledge to not run) she would easily be crushing the SPD; which would be polling in the mid teens and struggling to not fall to 4th!

Meanwhile, even with Keir Starmer's mediocre polling numbers, he is polling at around 35%. That is 10 full points better than the SPD; and would be better than many of Labour's elections in the 21st century or the 1980s.

Yes, Labour has no path to a majority, but they don't really need it. Depriving the Tories of a majority is already good enough for a Labour minority government (sort of, the DUP would prop up a Tory government but they only have 10 seats at best).

Also, the SPD has the risk of becoming a minor and irrelevant party at any point thanks to PR; while Labour is 100% guaranteed to at the very least to lead the opposition forever. Personally I'd still prefer to be in Labour's position than the SPD's.

[CumbrianLefty]

I will note that current polling for the SPD (circa 25%) would still be the 3rd worst result ever for the SPD, only narrowly beating 2017 or 2009 by a couple percentage points. If Merkel had ran again (I am baffled she kept her pledge to not run) she would easily be crushing the SPD; which would be polling in the mid teens and struggling to not fall to 4th!

Meanwhile, even with Keir Starmer's mediocre polling numbers, he is polling at around 35%. That is 10 full points better than the SPD; and would be better than many of Labour's elections in the 21st century or the 1980s.

Yes, Labour has no path to a majority, but they don't really need it. Depriving the Tories of a majority is already good enough for a Labour minority government (sort of, the DUP would prop up a Tory government but they only have 10 seats at best).

Also, the SPD has the risk of becoming a minor and irrelevant party at any point thanks to PR; while Labour is 100% guaranteed to at the very least to lead the opposition forever. Personally I'd still prefer to be in Labour's position than the SPD's.

I know what you are saying, but the Liberal party of a century ago would like a word

The idea that FPTP makes it "too big to fail" is arguably one of Labour's problems.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I was wrong too. Totally didn't expect this to happen (tho theoretically they can still ignore SPD).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Clearly Labour

Welp

[PSOL]

Ouch

[buritobr]

Finally, we got the answer!

[CumbrianLefty]

So is the next poll "British Labour or the PS"?

[It’s so Joever]

I will note that current polling for the SPD (circa 25%) would still be the 3rd worst result ever for the SPD, only narrowly beating 2017 or 2009 by a couple percentage points. If Merkel had ran again (I am baffled she kept her pledge to not run) she would easily be crushing the SPD; which would be polling in the mid teens and struggling to not fall to 4th!

Meanwhile, even with Keir Starmer's mediocre polling numbers, he is polling at around 35%. That is 10 full points better than the SPD; and would be better than many of Labour's elections in the 21st century or the 1980s.

Yes, Labour has no path to a majority, but they don't really need it. Depriving the Tories of a majority is already good enough for a Labour minority government (sort of, the DUP would prop up a Tory government but they only have 10 seats at best).

Also, the SPD has the risk of becoming a minor and irrelevant party at any point thanks to PR; while Labour is 100% guaranteed to at the very least to lead the opposition forever. Personally I'd still prefer to be in Labour's position than the SPD's.

Ah the fluidity of politics.

[President Johnson]

Don't worry, even I as SPD member would have voted Labor back then.