Bold 2020 Predictions

[ProgressiveModerate]

What are bold predictions for the 2020 election?

These are mine:
-Biden will do better than expected in MT. Maybe Biden +12
-VA votes to the left of NM. CO votes to the right of VA but the left of NM
-Trump solidifies IA as safe Red territory, Ernst wins easily
-VT will be closer than expected but obviously won't come close to flipping
-MN votes to the right of MI
-Collins wins the senate race in ME by a decent margin
-FL is lean Biden
-NH is very close even in a Biden landslide
-NC votes only 2 points to the right of the country
-Doug Jones doesn't do much better than Biden in AL
-Jeanne Shaheen, Gary Peters, and Jeanne Shaheen have close races.
-Mark Kelly wins pretty handily
-MO and IA vote for Trump by a simillar margin
-Sullivan has a close call in the AK senate race
-The house is closer than expected. Ds lose rural districts mostly like Petersen in MN, and 2 IA districts
-Trump kicks Pence off the ballot shortly after Biden choses a VP. Trump choses a woman like Nikki Haley
-A red state senate Democrat dies/retires/switches parties making the Dems path to a senate majority very difficult

Sorry that's a lot

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Mk

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is all but assured the 278 map, Harrison, Bollier, Gross, McGrath and S. Bullock are out raising their opponents. I hope all of those Senate races go Dem as well as Sununu, whom vetoed the minimum wage goes down

[Pulaski]

-A red state senate Democrat dies/retires/switches parties making the Dems path to a senate majority very difficult

The only red state Dem senators left are Manchin, Tester and Jones - maybe Brown at a push. Jones is DOA anyway. Tester and Brown aren't switching parties. So either Manchin switches parties, or he dies? Or Brown dies?

[LimoLiberal]

• Biden does worse with Hispanics than Hillary
• Biden loses OH-13
• Biden wins PA-17
• Michigan isn't all that close
• Tricia Zunker does better than expected in the WI-07 special
• Biden improves on Clinton's margin in every single large suburban county
• California is closer than 2016

[Frenchrepublican]

What are bold predictions for the 2020 election?

These are mine:
-Biden will do better than expected in MT. Maybe Biden +12
-VA votes to the left of NM. CO votes to the right of VA but the left of NM
-Trump solidifies IA as safe Red territory, Ernst wins easily
-VT will be closer than expected but obviously won't come close to flipping
-MN votes to the right of MI
-Collins wins the senate race in ME by a decent margin
-FL is lean Biden
-NH is very close even in a Biden landslide
-NC votes only 2 points to the right of the country
-Doug Jones doesn't do much better than Biden in AL
-Jeanne Shaheen, Gary Peters, and Jeanne Shaheen have close races.
-Mark Kelly wins pretty handily
-MO and IA vote for Trump by a simillar margin
-Sullivan has a close call in the AK senate race
-The house is closer than expected. Ds lose rural districts mostly like Petersen in MN, and 2 IA districts
-Trump kicks Pence off the ballot shortly after Biden choses a VP. Trump choses a woman like Nikki Haley
-A red state senate Democrat dies/retires/switches parties making the Dems path to a senate majority very difficult

Sorry that's a lot

How do these two things are happening at the same time ? Hard to see, frankly

[Frenchrepublican]

• Biden does worse with Hispanics than Hillary

• Biden loses OH-13
• Biden wins PA-17

[/b]

• Michigan isn't all that close
• Tricia Zunker does better than expected in the WI-07 special
• Biden improves on Clinton's margin in every single large suburban county
• California is closer than 2016

Can't happen simultaneously, sorry

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What are bold predictions for the 2020 election?

These are mine:
-Biden will do better than expected in MT. Maybe Biden +12
-VA votes to the left of NM. CO votes to the right of VA but the left of NM
-Trump solidifies IA as safe Red territory, Ernst wins easily
-VT will be closer than expected but obviously won't come close to flipping
-MN votes to the right of MI
-Collins wins the senate race in ME by a decent margin
-FL is lean Biden
-NH is very close even in a Biden landslide
-NC votes only 2 points to the right of the country
-Doug Jones doesn't do much better than Biden in AL
-Jeanne Shaheen, Gary Peters, and Jeanne Shaheen have close races.
-Mark Kelly wins pretty handily
-MO and IA vote for Trump by a simillar margin
-Sullivan has a close call in the AK senate race
-The house is closer than expected. Ds lose rural districts mostly like Petersen in MN, and 2 IA districts
-Trump kicks Pence off the ballot shortly after Biden choses a VP. Trump choses a woman like Nikki Haley
-A red state senate Democrat dies/retires/switches parties making the Dems path to a senate majority very difficult

Sorry that's a lot

How do these two things are happening at the same time ? Hard to see, frankly

Alaska has some weird behaviors and tends to buck trends. I could easily see Sullivan almost losing or even losing while Collins gets a decent margin (say, 4 points) on route to re-election.

[Frenchrepublican]

What are bold predictions for the 2020 election?

These are mine:
-Biden will do better than expected in MT. Maybe Biden +12
-VA votes to the left of NM. CO votes to the right of VA but the left of NM
-Trump solidifies IA as safe Red territory, Ernst wins easily
-VT will be closer than expected but obviously won't come close to flipping
-MN votes to the right of MI
-Collins wins the senate race in ME by a decent margin
-FL is lean Biden
-NH is very close even in a Biden landslide
-NC votes only 2 points to the right of the country
-Doug Jones doesn't do much better than Biden in AL
-Jeanne Shaheen, Gary Peters, and Jeanne Shaheen have close races.
-Mark Kelly wins pretty handily
-MO and IA vote for Trump by a simillar margin
-Sullivan has a close call in the AK senate race
-The house is closer than expected. Ds lose rural districts mostly like Petersen in MN, and 2 IA districts
-Trump kicks Pence off the ballot shortly after Biden choses a VP. Trump choses a woman like Nikki Haley
-A red state senate Democrat dies/retires/switches parties making the Dems path to a senate majority very difficult

Sorry that's a lot

How do these two things are happening at the same time ? Hard to see, frankly

Alaska has some weird behaviors and tends to buck trends. I could easily see Sullivan almost losing or even losing while Collins gets a decent margin (say, 4 points) on route to re-election.

No, that would be hard to see.

Yeah things can be weird, but they are not that weird, especially in federal races where results are more and more linked together. If Collins wins by 4 it means that the political climate is relatively neutral, that Trump is probably eking out a EC victory, and under a such scenario it's hard to see how Sullivan could not be reelected confortably.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What are bold predictions for the 2020 election?

These are mine:
-Biden will do better than expected in MT. Maybe Biden +12
-VA votes to the left of NM. CO votes to the right of VA but the left of NM
-Trump solidifies IA as safe Red territory, Ernst wins easily
-VT will be closer than expected but obviously won't come close to flipping
-MN votes to the right of MI
-Collins wins the senate race in ME by a decent margin
-FL is lean Biden
-NH is very close even in a Biden landslide
-NC votes only 2 points to the right of the country
-Doug Jones doesn't do much better than Biden in AL
-Jeanne Shaheen, Gary Peters, and Jeanne Shaheen have close races.
-Mark Kelly wins pretty handily
-MO and IA vote for Trump by a simillar margin
-Sullivan has a close call in the AK senate race
-The house is closer than expected. Ds lose rural districts mostly like Petersen in MN, and 2 IA districts
-Trump kicks Pence off the ballot shortly after Biden choses a VP. Trump choses a woman like Nikki Haley
-A red state senate Democrat dies/retires/switches parties making the Dems path to a senate majority very difficult

Sorry that's a lot

How do these two things are happening at the same time ? Hard to see, frankly

Alaska has some weird behaviors and tends to buck trends. I could easily see Sullivan almost losing or even losing while Collins gets a decent margin (say, 4 points) on route to re-election.

No, that would be hard to see.

Yeah things can be weird, but they are not that weird, especially in federal races where results are more and more linked together. If Collins wins by 4 it means that the political climate is relatively neutral, that Trump is probably eking out a EC victory, and under a such scenario it's hard to see how Sullivan could not be reelected confortably.

In 2014 Alaska almost re-elected Begich despite the massive R wave nationwide. Alaska doesn't like to play by the normal rules. It has its own idiosyncratic little system that can frequently have the same end results as the nation at large but even then has different drivers.

[Frenchrepublican]

What are bold predictions for the 2020 election?

These are mine:
-Biden will do better than expected in MT. Maybe Biden +12
-VA votes to the left of NM. CO votes to the right of VA but the left of NM
-Trump solidifies IA as safe Red territory, Ernst wins easily
-VT will be closer than expected but obviously won't come close to flipping
-MN votes to the right of MI
-Collins wins the senate race in ME by a decent margin
-FL is lean Biden
-NH is very close even in a Biden landslide
-NC votes only 2 points to the right of the country
-Doug Jones doesn't do much better than Biden in AL
-Jeanne Shaheen, Gary Peters, and Jeanne Shaheen have close races.
-Mark Kelly wins pretty handily
-MO and IA vote for Trump by a simillar margin
-Sullivan has a close call in the AK senate race
-The house is closer than expected. Ds lose rural districts mostly like Petersen in MN, and 2 IA districts
-Trump kicks Pence off the ballot shortly after Biden choses a VP. Trump choses a woman like Nikki Haley
-A red state senate Democrat dies/retires/switches parties making the Dems path to a senate majority very difficult

Sorry that's a lot

How do these two things are happening at the same time ? Hard to see, frankly

Alaska has some weird behaviors and tends to buck trends. I could easily see Sullivan almost losing or even losing while Collins gets a decent margin (say, 4 points) on route to re-election.

No, that would be hard to see.

Yeah things can be weird, but they are not that weird, especially in federal races where results are more and more linked together. If Collins wins by 4 it means that the political climate is relatively neutral, that Trump is probably eking out a EC victory, and under a such scenario it's hard to see how Sullivan could not be reelected confortably.

In 2014 Alaska almost re-elected Begich despite the massive R wave nationwide. Alaska doesn't like to play by the normal rules. It has its own idiosyncratic little system that can frequently have the same end results as the nation at large but even then has different drivers.

Begich had the incumbency bonus at that time, it mostly explains why the race was quite close. In federal races Alaska is simply a very republican state, just look at the 2018 House race, democrats believed they had a chance to defeat Young, they invested money and ressources in the race and despite the climate they fell short, actually Young won by a pretty confortable margin.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What are bold predictions for the 2020 election?

These are mine:
-Biden will do better than expected in MT. Maybe Biden +12
-VA votes to the left of NM. CO votes to the right of VA but the left of NM
-Trump solidifies IA as safe Red territory, Ernst wins easily
-VT will be closer than expected but obviously won't come close to flipping
-MN votes to the right of MI
-Collins wins the senate race in ME by a decent margin
-FL is lean Biden
-NH is very close even in a Biden landslide
-NC votes only 2 points to the right of the country
-Doug Jones doesn't do much better than Biden in AL
-Jeanne Shaheen, Gary Peters, and Jeanne Shaheen have close races.
-Mark Kelly wins pretty handily
-MO and IA vote for Trump by a simillar margin
-Sullivan has a close call in the AK senate race
-The house is closer than expected. Ds lose rural districts mostly like Petersen in MN, and 2 IA districts
-Trump kicks Pence off the ballot shortly after Biden choses a VP. Trump choses a woman like Nikki Haley
-A red state senate Democrat dies/retires/switches parties making the Dems path to a senate majority very difficult

Sorry that's a lot

How do these two things are happening at the same time ? Hard to see, frankly

Alaska has some weird behaviors and tends to buck trends. I could easily see Sullivan almost losing or even losing while Collins gets a decent margin (say, 4 points) on route to re-election.

No, that would be hard to see.

Yeah things can be weird, but they are not that weird, especially in federal races where results are more and more linked together. If Collins wins by 4 it means that the political climate is relatively neutral, that Trump is probably eking out a EC victory, and under a such scenario it's hard to see how Sullivan could not be reelected confortably.

In 2014 Alaska almost re-elected Begich despite the massive R wave nationwide. Alaska doesn't like to play by the normal rules. It has its own idiosyncratic little system that can frequently have the same end results as the nation at large but even then has different drivers.

Begich had the incumbency bonus at that time, it mostly explains why the race was quite close. In federal races Alaska is simply a very republican state, just look at the 2018 House race, democrats believed they had a chance to defeat Young, they invested money and ressources in the race and despite the climate they fell short, actually Young won by a pretty confortable margin.

I wouldn't exactly call Alaska just another "very republican state" on federal level, it is merely lean/likely in the absence of consideration of other factors. It has a HUGE proportion of independents, and it is a poor fit for both the national Democratic Party and the national Republican Party. If you want someone who fits the state to the T, look at Lisa Murkowski, who is rather something of a maverick with a moderate voting record.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What are bold predictions for the 2020 election?

These are mine:
-Biden will do better than expected in MT. Maybe Biden +12
-VA votes to the left of NM. CO votes to the right of VA but the left of NM
-Trump solidifies IA as safe Red territory, Ernst wins easily
-VT will be closer than expected but obviously won't come close to flipping
-MN votes to the right of MI
-Collins wins the senate race in ME by a decent margin
-FL is lean Biden
-NH is very close even in a Biden landslide
-NC votes only 2 points to the right of the country
-Doug Jones doesn't do much better than Biden in AL
-Jeanne Shaheen, Gary Peters, and Jeanne Shaheen have close races.
-Mark Kelly wins pretty handily
-MO and IA vote for Trump by a simillar margin
-Sullivan has a close call in the AK senate race
-The house is closer than expected. Ds lose rural districts mostly like Petersen in MN, and 2 IA districts
-Trump kicks Pence off the ballot shortly after Biden choses a VP. Trump choses a woman like Nikki Haley
-A red state senate Democrat dies/retires/switches parties making the Dems path to a senate majority very difficult

Sorry that's a lot

How do these two things are happening at the same time ? Hard to see, frankly

Alaska has some weird behaviors and tends to buck trends. I could easily see Sullivan almost losing or even losing while Collins gets a decent margin (say, 4 points) on route to re-election.

No, that would be hard to see.

Yeah things can be weird, but they are not that weird, especially in federal races where results are more and more linked together. If Collins wins by 4 it means that the political climate is relatively neutral, that Trump is probably eking out a EC victory, and under a such scenario it's hard to see how Sullivan could not be reelected confortably.

In 2014 Alaska almost re-elected Begich despite the massive R wave nationwide. Alaska doesn't like to play by the normal rules. It has its own idiosyncratic little system that can frequently have the same end results as the nation at large but even then has different drivers.

Begich had the incumbency bonus at that time, it mostly explains why the race was quite close. In federal races Alaska is simply a very republican state, just look at the 2018 House race, democrats believed they had a chance to defeat Young, they invested money and ressources in the race and despite the climate they fell short, actually Young won by a pretty confortable margin.

I wouldn't exactly call Alaska just another "very republican state" on federal level, it is merely lean/likely in the absence of consideration of other factors. It has a HUGE proportion of independents, and it is a poor fit for both the national Democratic Party and the national Republican Party. If you want someone who fits the state to the T, look at Lisa Murkowski, who is rather something of a maverick with a moderate voting record.

AK gives 1K Per month to its residents, that why it's in play at the Senate level and Gross, Franken and Bollier are Surgeon Generals and be used alongside Biden during this Pandemic

[Politician]

-Michigan isn't close and Biden/Peters win comfirtably
-Ohio and Texas end up closer than Michigan or any Clinton states
-New Hampshire votes for Biden by double digits
-Montana ends up closer than Virginia or Colorado
-Bullock wins the Senate race in Montana
-Florida votes for Biden

[ProgressiveModerate]

-A red state senate Democrat dies/retires/switches parties making the Dems path to a senate majority very difficult

The only red state Dem senators left are Manchin, Tester and Jones - maybe Brown at a push. Jones is DOA anyway. Tester and Brown aren't switching parties. So either Manchin switches parties, or he dies? Or Brown dies?

Maybe it's not that either die, but like Biden puts Brown in his cabinet. I don't know what it is, but I feel like one of Tester, Manchin, or Jones won't be in the senate come 2021

[MillennialModerate]

- Jones loses by single digits in AL
- Senate: ME, AZ, CO flip Dem, AL flips GOP
- Georgia is called within 30 mins of poll closing (GOP)
- Dems lose 11 seats in the House (224-210)
- Cornyn wins at poll closing; Trump wins TX by single digits
- ME-02 goes Biden
- NC goes GOP for POTUS, Sen & Gov
- PA, MI go Biden - AZ/WI go Trump; making Florida the decisive state and isn’t called
until 2am

[Frenchrepublican]

-A red state senate Democrat dies/retires/switches parties making the Dems path to a senate majority very difficult

The only red state Dem senators left are Manchin, Tester and Jones - maybe Brown at a push. Jones is DOA anyway. Tester and Brown aren't switching parties. So either Manchin switches parties, or he dies? Or Brown dies?

Maybe it's not that either die, but like Biden puts Brown in his cabinet. I don't know what it is, but I feel like one of Tester, Manchin, or Jones won't be in the senate come 2021

He has dementia, but still

[Frenchrepublican]

What are bold predictions for the 2020 election?

These are mine:
-Biden will do better than expected in MT. Maybe Biden +12
-VA votes to the left of NM. CO votes to the right of VA but the left of NM
-Trump solidifies IA as safe Red territory, Ernst wins easily
-VT will be closer than expected but obviously won't come close to flipping
-MN votes to the right of MI
-Collins wins the senate race in ME by a decent margin
-FL is lean Biden
-NH is very close even in a Biden landslide
-NC votes only 2 points to the right of the country
-Doug Jones doesn't do much better than Biden in AL
-Jeanne Shaheen, Gary Peters, and Jeanne Shaheen have close races.
-Mark Kelly wins pretty handily
-MO and IA vote for Trump by a simillar margin
-Sullivan has a close call in the AK senate race
-The house is closer than expected. Ds lose rural districts mostly like Petersen in MN, and 2 IA districts
-Trump kicks Pence off the ballot shortly after Biden choses a VP. Trump choses a woman like Nikki Haley
-A red state senate Democrat dies/retires/switches parties making the Dems path to a senate majority very difficult

Sorry that's a lot

How do these two things are happening at the same time ? Hard to see, frankly

Alaska has some weird behaviors and tends to buck trends. I could easily see Sullivan almost losing or even losing while Collins gets a decent margin (say, 4 points) on route to re-election.

No, that would be hard to see.

Yeah things can be weird, but they are not that weird, especially in federal races where results are more and more linked together. If Collins wins by 4 it means that the political climate is relatively neutral, that Trump is probably eking out a EC victory, and under a such scenario it's hard to see how Sullivan could not be reelected confortably.

In 2014 Alaska almost re-elected Begich despite the massive R wave nationwide. Alaska doesn't like to play by the normal rules. It has its own idiosyncratic little system that can frequently have the same end results as the nation at large but even then has different drivers.

Begich had the incumbency bonus at that time, it mostly explains why the race was quite close. In federal races Alaska is simply a very republican state, just look at the 2018 House race, democrats believed they had a chance to defeat Young, they invested money and ressources in the race and despite the climate they fell short, actually Young won by a pretty confortable margin.

I wouldn't exactly call Alaska just another "very republican state" on federal level, it is merely lean/likely in the absence of consideration of other factors. It has a HUGE proportion of independents, and it is a poor fit for both the national Democratic Party and the national Republican Party. If you want someone who fits the state to the T, look at Lisa Murkowski, who is rather something of a maverick with a moderate voting record.

AK is a very republican state downballot, it's a fact, point and simple. Since the Ford era democrats have won only one federal race in AK, during a D wave and against a felon.

[Politician]

- Jones loses by single digits in AL
- Senate: ME, AZ, CO flip Dem, AL flips GOP
- Georgia is called within 30 mins of poll closing (GOP)
- Dems lose 11 seats in the House (224-210)
- Cornyn wins at poll closing; Trump wins TX by single digits
- ME-02 goes Biden
- NC goes GOP for POTUS, Sen & Gov
- PA, MI go Biden - AZ/WI go Trump; making Florida the decisive state and isn’t called
until 2am

These things all aren't going to happen simultaneously. If Biden wins ME-2, the election is over. If Trump wins Georgia within 30 minutes of poll closing, the election is over the other way.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What are bold predictions for the 2020 election?

These are mine:
-Biden will do better than expected in MT. Maybe Biden +12
-VA votes to the left of NM. CO votes to the right of VA but the left of NM
-Trump solidifies IA as safe Red territory, Ernst wins easily
-VT will be closer than expected but obviously won't come close to flipping
-MN votes to the right of MI
-Collins wins the senate race in ME by a decent margin
-FL is lean Biden
-NH is very close even in a Biden landslide
-NC votes only 2 points to the right of the country
-Doug Jones doesn't do much better than Biden in AL
-Jeanne Shaheen, Gary Peters, and Jeanne Shaheen have close races.
-Mark Kelly wins pretty handily
-MO and IA vote for Trump by a simillar margin
-Sullivan has a close call in the AK senate race
-The house is closer than expected. Ds lose rural districts mostly like Petersen in MN, and 2 IA districts
-Trump kicks Pence off the ballot shortly after Biden choses a VP. Trump choses a woman like Nikki Haley
-A red state senate Democrat dies/retires/switches parties making the Dems path to a senate majority very difficult

Sorry that's a lot

How do these two things are happening at the same time ? Hard to see, frankly

Alaska has some weird behaviors and tends to buck trends. I could easily see Sullivan almost losing or even losing while Collins gets a decent margin (say, 4 points) on route to re-election.

No, that would be hard to see.

Yeah things can be weird, but they are not that weird, especially in federal races where results are more and more linked together. If Collins wins by 4 it means that the political climate is relatively neutral, that Trump is probably eking out a EC victory, and under a such scenario it's hard to see how Sullivan could not be reelected confortably.

In 2014 Alaska almost re-elected Begich despite the massive R wave nationwide. Alaska doesn't like to play by the normal rules. It has its own idiosyncratic little system that can frequently have the same end results as the nation at large but even then has different drivers.

Begich had the incumbency bonus at that time, it mostly explains why the race was quite close. In federal races Alaska is simply a very republican state, just look at the 2018 House race, democrats believed they had a chance to defeat Young, they invested money and ressources in the race and despite the climate they fell short, actually Young won by a pretty confortable margin.

I wouldn't exactly call Alaska just another "very republican state" on federal level, it is merely lean/likely in the absence of consideration of other factors. It has a HUGE proportion of independents, and it is a poor fit for both the national Democratic Party and the national Republican Party. If you want someone who fits the state to the T, look at Lisa Murkowski, who is rather something of a maverick with a moderate voting record.

AK is a very republican state downballot, it's a fact, point and simple. Since the Ford era democrats have won only one federal race in AK, during a D wave and against a felon.

Alaska's a place where "all politics is local" is alive and well. Case in point: Murkowski not voting for DeVos in the confirmation vote, longtime GOP incumbents bringing in loads of cash from Washington (winning the Native Alaskan vote in the process) etc.
Alaska like most small states has an exceptionally large pro-incumbent bias. (though with the demise of earmarks this probably has lessened a certain extent)

[Pulaski]

-A red state senate Democrat dies/retires/switches parties making the Dems path to a senate majority very difficult

The only red state Dem senators left are Manchin, Tester and Jones - maybe Brown at a push. Jones is DOA anyway. Tester and Brown aren't switching parties. So either Manchin switches parties, or he dies? Or Brown dies?

Maybe it's not that either die, but like Biden puts Brown in his cabinet. I don't know what it is, but I feel like one of Tester, Manchin, or Jones won't be in the senate come 2021

Again, the only one that even theoretically makes sense would be Tester for something like Agriculture or Interior, and that Montana seat is just too valuable for Biden to put him in cabinet.

[progressive85]

Most of COVID-19 crisis is over by Election Day
Democrats win 4 Senate seats - Arizona, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina - and lose Alabama - giving them 50-50
but Trump is re-elected very narrowly and still loses the popular vote
Democrats do very well down-ballot despite losing the big one
The election is closer than 2016 was, with more new swing states for 2022 and 2024

[Illini Moderate]

Biden wins. Suburban turnout drives his victory. Pundits suddenly "realize" that their idea of Trump as an unstoppable electoral titan was more due to the fact that his 2016 win was so shocking rather than political strength. People wonder why they overlooked his historic unpopularity, the anger of the Democratic base, and 2018 trends.

[here2view]

Love these threads.

- Maine is the closest state that Trump loses, not Minnesota, New Hampshire, or Nevada
- Georgia votes to the left of North Carolina
- The Georgia special election is a lot closer than this forum thinks (you can make a very good argument that it's Tilt R)
- Trump's margin of victory in Montana is cut from 21% down to 12%
- Trump clears 70% in West Virginia
- Trump clears 50% in Florida (barely.) 3rd party voters don't really play much of an impact here
- Trump wins Texas by 5, Ohio by 6, and Iowa by 7
- Utah reverts back to 2008 margins for Trump

[LAKISYLVANIA]

MN votes to the right of the nation
Wisconsin votes narrowly GOP again, and votes substantially to the right of the nation
Doug Jones wins surprisingly in Alabama
Richard Ojeda loses senate election in single digits
Cornyn's election is called immediately
Texas is not close at all. And Trump wins by more than 5 points
Trump's margin will be cut heavily in Montana & Kansas, by more than 10 points
Alaska ends up being close, for both senatorial & presidential level
ME-2 goes to Biden
Bullock wins senate race in Montana
Bollier wins senate race in Kansas
Two Democratic new senators of Georgia join the group
Cooper wins by 5, Tillis loses by almost 0, Trump wins by 2.
Iowa votes to the right of Nebraska (and overtakes KS, MT, SC, AL, MO and MS). Ernst wins by 20
Trump overperforms GOP senators by a lot in many states. I expect a senate bloodbath

assuming covid-19 is the nail in the coffin for Trump

The map