Could Pennsylvania be the new Virginia?

[Non Swing Voter]

Seems to be following a similar pattern.  Since 2016, if you look at all the counties Hillary won (particularly in the eastern portion of the state) they have a net population gain of 36,000.  If you look at the state as a whole the gain was only 20,000.  So Trump counties lost 16,000 (and it's especially concentrated in areas that went heavily for him as opposed to areas that were mostly split).  This means Hillary counties have a relative population shift of 52,000.

[Nyvin]

At a much slower rate maybe,  but also starting from a much higher floor.

[TML]

I'm not sure this comparison is accurate in terms of the states' voting patterns, but I do agree with the notion that PA will likely stay in the D column in the long run due to the Philadelphia area growing and other parts of the state shrinking in population.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

No it is not going to be the next Virginia.

You have to remember that there are many fundamental differences operating at different times.

1. PA population is 50% larger than VA.
2. Philly Metro cannot engulf the rest of the state to the degree that NOVA does even if the numbers on the surface make that seem doable.
3. Philly Burbs flipped D in 1992 and Republicans have 28 years of figuring out how to work with and around that. NOVA flipped in 2008, and the state party still doesn't know how to deal with that and the one guy who did went to prison.
4. NOVA is heavily dominated by Gov't sector jobs or jobs indirectly dependent on gov't sector. Philly Burbs is middle and upper middle class professionals not tied directly to Gov't.
5. PA was trending Republican prior to Trump, VA was going the opposition direction like two trains passing in the night. Such that PA is now several points more Republican than Virginia. Tell that to someone in 2005 and they would have called you nuts.
6. Trump got 290,000 more votes in PA than Romney, Conversely Trump lost 100,000 votes compared to Romney in Virginia.
7. There is substantially more opportunities for snap back in the suburbs of Pittsburgh, Harrisburg and even parts of the Philly area like Bucks post Trump then there is anywhere in Virginia. Depending on how big that is, could even make PA likely R though that is a more extreme scenario. There is nothing approximating that opportunity in VA.
8. The simple fact that it is much closer than VA, means that Republicans will continue to invest in PA and target it and eventually cater to its needs in a way that won't even be attempted in Virginia because it is too far gone. Power follows the path of least resistance.

[Sol]

Pennsylvania has a yin-yang-esque balance of different cities, demographics, economies etc. such that it's liable to be a swing state in most political alignments.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Every thing that NC senator said, plus VA is well on the way to becoming safe D.  PA will likely remain a swing state at the presidential level.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Yes-ish. I actually made that comparison a year ago here: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=312014.msg6639015#msg6639015, but a more apt description would be Pennsylvania=VA+WV, which would have narrowly voted Trump in 2016. However, as WV (and Appalachian PA) make up an ever shrinking share of VA+WV and PA, the trends to the right in these areas are overtaken by leftward trends out of the eastern part of the states.

[lfromnj]

Also lets not forget not all the philly area is trending D, Philladelphia basically seems more or less maxed out and Bucks has a good mix of WWC areas in the south and rurals areas in the north to cancel out richer middle Bucks county D trends and Delaware county isn't a total disaster zone either with a large WWC component thats mostly cancelling out the richer burbs trending D, the only real disaster counties for the GOP in PA are Montgomery and Chester. A lot of the counties in the Philly Metro are acting more like Allegheny with some D trending parts but also R trending portions.

[Politician]

Every state isn't trending D.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No it's a D plus 2 state, it wont vote R in 2020

[Gracile]

Also lets not forget not all the philly area is trending D, Philladelphia basically seems more or less maxed out and Bucks has a good mix of WWC areas in the south and rurals areas in the north to cancel out richer middle Bucks county D trends and Delaware county isn't a total disaster zone either with a large WWC component thats mostly cancelling out the richer burbs trending D, the only real disaster counties for the GOP in PA are Montgomery and Chester. A lot of the counties in the Philly Metro are acting more like Allegheny with some D trending parts but also R trending portions.

Philadelphia proper also has some parts of the city that are relatively Trumpish.

[Xing]

No, it’s probably going to remain a swing state for the foreseeable future.

[S019]

No, but growth in SEPA could make it Tilt/Lean D, it's probably going to remain a swing state for a while though, maybe if SEPA growth is really high, it could become a Democratic North Carolina or Florida, but no it's going to swing hard left like Virginia

[Non Swing Voter]

Yes-ish. I actually made that comparison a year ago here: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=312014.msg6639015#msg6639015, but a more apt description would be Pennsylvania=VA+WV, which would have narrowly voted Trump in 2016. However, as WV (and Appalachian PA) make up an ever shrinking share of VA+WV and PA, the trends to the right in these areas are overtaken by leftward trends out of the eastern part of the states.

I like this comparison (VA + WV).

[Flyersfan232]

No

[Flyersfan232]

I'm not sure this comparison is accurate in terms of the states' voting patterns, but I do agree with the notion that PA will likely stay in the D column in the long run due to the Philadelphia area growing and other parts of the state shrinking in population.

Philly isn’t growing its dead and in 2016 it prove that good can win with out the philly subs as long they run up the marages in thr phillys subs Andy win the pits burgs subs

[Flyersfan232]

Also lets not forget not all the philly area is trending D, Philladelphia basically seems more or less maxed out and Bucks has a good mix of WWC areas in the south and rurals areas in the north to cancel out richer middle Bucks county D trends and Delaware county isn't a total disaster zone either with a large WWC component thats mostly cancelling out the richer burbs trending D, the only real disaster counties for the GOP in PA are Montgomery and Chester. A lot of the counties in the Philly Metro are acting more like Allegheny with some D trending parts but also R trending portions.

Philadelphia proper also has some parts of the city that are relatively Trumpish.

Northeast philly

[Camaro33]

Pennsylvania is actually somewhat popular for New England retirees that are conservative. There are a lot of families in my neck of the woods who like four seasons and want to stay somewhat close to family but move out to nearby states. Literally nobody retires and stays in Connecticut or Massachusetts. Many end up going to Pennsylvania for "land, low taxes, and more freedom". I bet that it is a top 5 retirement state for conservative New Englanders after Florida and the Carolinas, and this trend is only growing as more people retire here.

While it's basically negligible and I'm sure some forum bros will laugh at this, it still is something I have observed. I have never heard of people here retiring in Virginia.

[Hope For A New Era]

Pennsylvania has taken up Ohio's mantle as the national bellwether. As Sol said, it has "a little bit of everything" in such a way that it will likely remain swingy in almost any political alignment. It's basically Vigo County, Indiana scaled up to the size of a state.

I like the VA+WV comparison. Perhaps it could be done for some other states too. IL + IN = MN?

[ElectionsGuy]

This has been like every single argument you've ever made on this forum -  Generally, stating that it's its impossible for the Republican Party to have success in the future because of trends and demographics. Usually predicated on the idea that Republicans are 'maxed out' with every group currently. A very popular theory among Dems that want to delude themselves into overconfidence, but usually doesn't work in real world. This is particularly silly - picking out one region of a R trending state that has trended D, argue that it's population growth will make up for the rest of the state. You notice... almost everywhere that's gaining in population is trending D and vise versa, but there's still loads of states that have trended R in the past decade? The demographics is destiny argument has not played out well at all so far.

[ElectionsGuy]

Every state isn't trending D.

I don't know if you're the same person I saw a year ago but I'm glad you're posting common sense now.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This has been like every single argument you've ever made on this forum -  Generally, stating that it's its impossible for the Republican Party to have success in the future because of trends and demographics. Usually predicated on the idea that Republicans are 'maxed out' with every group currently. A very popular theory among Dems that want to delude themselves into overconfidence, but usually doesn't work in real world. This is particularly silly - picking out one region of a R trending state that has trended D, argue that it's population growth will make up for the rest of the state. You notice... almost everywhere that's gaining in population is trending D and vise versa, but there's still loads of states that have trended R in the past decade? The demographics is destiny argument has not played out well at all so far.

Remember when Colombus metro was suppose to make Ohio safe D because Republicans were "maxed out" elsewhere in the state?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Every state isn't trending D.

I don't know if you're the same person I saw a year ago but I'm glad you're posting common sense now.

Trump snt a politician and never was one, he's a businessman turned businessman, that why he is losing MI by 15 pts. He only knew how to manage an economy when there was no crisis. Crunch time has come and he botched the response to Covid 19 and we got a worldwide Recession

[Person Man]

A similar yet very different story as in Florida keeps Democrats in the game but always underperforming.

[Non Swing Voter]

This has been like every single argument you've ever made on this forum -  Generally, stating that it's its impossible for the Republican Party to have success in the future because of trends and demographics. Usually predicated on the idea that Republicans are 'maxed out' with every group currently. A very popular theory among Dems that want to delude themselves into overconfidence, but usually doesn't work in real world. This is particularly silly - picking out one region of a R trending state that has trended D, argue that it's population growth will make up for the rest of the state. You notice... almost everywhere that's gaining in population is trending D and vise versa, but there's still loads of states that have trended R in the past decade? The demographics is destiny argument has not played out well at all so far.

Really?  How did it work in Virginia?  How is it working in Georgia now?  Just because you claim something is silly with no basis, doesn't make it silly.