COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[It’s so Joever]

On a positive note, cases do seem to be lowering in many previously hit areas. New Jersey and New York stand out as particularly positive. Even my own State is starting to see some promising developments, as average new cases per day decline/are stagnant even as testing is ramping up (although we are still far behind nearly every other State)


That being said, several cities definitely are worrisome and should be monitored.
-Developments in DC/NoVa are also positive, but in the wrong way, as they now have the highest positivity rate.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/homenews/administration/499195-birx-says-dc-has-highest-positivity-rate-for-coronavirus%3famp

-North Carolina has had a peak in new cases, with growth in the Greensboro-Winston Salem area.
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/23/861561659/north-carolina-reports-highest-one-day-spike-of-covid-19-cases

-Montgomery is actually out of ICU beds. Patients have to be moved to Birmingham for an ICU bed.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2020/05/20/dire-situation-in-alabama-capital-icus-full-coronavirus-cases-double-in-may/amp/

-Chattanooga is seeing rapid growth in cases (this is also with increased testing so don’t worry too much)
https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/local/story/2020/may/23/more-testing-brings-covid-19-case-surge-chatt/523717/

-Minneapolis is seeing ICU capacity being strained.
https://m.startribune.com/minnesota-health-officials-call-for-caution-after-news-of-twin-cities-icu-beds-filling-up/570710842/

Luckily, many major metro areas in the US are starting to see declines.
Trends are looking promising for most of the country, let’s hope it stays that way.

[Grassroots]

We aren't at 100k deaths yet, which is weird cause I would have thought we would have reached it two days ago. We probably won't reach it until Monday at worst.

[Tender Branson]

Pretty bizarre that the US could hit 100.000 deaths exactly tomorrow, Memorial Day.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Seeing reports that several states are reporting combined antibody and PCR/viral tests. This is bad for a couple of reasons, but some people are claiming it will artificially lower the reported positive rate. I don't really understand why this would be unless there's some very big difference in who is being tested.

Seems to me like if anything combining these tests would artificially raise the positive rate, because antibody tests are essentially a record of ever having been infected while a viral test is only a record of being infected right now. So combining these tests and preventing them as viral tests would suggest that there are more infections happening right now/the last couple weeks than there really are.

Can anybody help me understand why these would lower the positive rate and not inflate it?

In general I think it's good for transparency to report the tests separately and it will be helpful for assessing the overall accuracy of the tests (e.g. accounting for the fact that antibody tests have a higher false positive rate). I'm afraid though that the testing has been administered and reported in such a way that large-scale and systematic statistical corrections to get any sort of population-wide inference (like many people are trying to do with the Stanford and NYC serology studies) are going to be fruitless no matter what happens.

Pretty bizarre that the US could hit 100.000 deaths exactly tomorrow, Memorial Day.

It's possible but a lot of coroners take the weekend off and Memorial Day is a federal holiday, so many will probably also take Monday off. But it will definitely happen on or by Tuesday.

[Gass3268]

Glad the virus-truthers want to listen to the CDC without question now!
Since we are doing that, how about we have everyone wear a mask, slowly reopen (and revert back to shutdowns if cases spike), and social distance, like the CDC recommends?

You know, I don't really have a huge problem with masks.  I'm happy to wear one if I'm going to be in a place like a supermarket (I actually remember kind of regretting not wearing one the last time I went in one).  I just think that most businesses should be open, even those not conducive to masks or social distancing (like restaurants).  As I live alone, I am also going to see friends when I can, as I would go crazy otherwise.

If masks in certain circumstances (like a crowded store) are what it takes to otherwise get back to normal, I'm fine with that.  It kind of feels dystopian when restaurant servers have masks on, but I don't mind that either at the end of the day.

What I do think we need (and even once this is over) is hand sanitizer everywhere.  You should never have a hard time finding it when you enter a store, workplace, church, stadium, or restaurant.

No.  In March, governors and state health officials closed our businesses, suspended our kids' educations, and took our freedoms by exaggerating the risks of COVID-19.

Now they want to trade it back to us for mask mandates, contact tracing and made-up rules?

I don't think so.

And they saved lives because of it. Sorry, I'll trust the scientists and epidemiologists. Thankfully more states and municipalities are instituting mask mandates and the vast majority of the public is okay with it.  

[Gass3268]

Most "reopen American opinions" come from bots:

https://twitter.com/ArtificialOther/status/1264196646973378562?s=20

[brucejoel99]

Most "reopen American opinions" come from bots:

https://twitter.com/ArtificialOther/status/1264196646973378562?s=20

If it's a hot-button issue in America, then you can almost be sure that most of the accounts - especially the extreme right-leaning accounts - are produced & monitored in a troll farm, likely from Russia or Iran.

Their sole purpose is to cause chaos among Americans, further fracturing a system that's already fraught with discord.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Man, I just love it when people say we should have mask laws OUTDOORS, and keep these laws around until we find a vaccine.

I think we'll have a vaccine sooner than some people think, but what if we never have one?

Also, shouldn't official guidelines recommend moving activities outdoors as much as possible?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Man, I just love it when people say we should have mask laws OUTDOORS, and keep these laws around until we find a vaccine.

I think we'll have a vaccine sooner than some people think, but what if we never have one?

Also, shouldn't official guidelines recommend moving activities outdoors as much as possible?

Masks should be worn when in proximity to other people, whether that's indoors or outdoors.

The last part makes sense to the extent possible, but weather has to be considered.  For example, it's fine for restaurants to have outdoor seating now, but what about January in someplace like Minnesota?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1264530671768424450

I like the use of 7-day rolling averages, because it removes day-of-week variations, which are fairly significant.

[Calthrina950]

Glad the virus-truthers want to listen to the CDC without question now!
Since we are doing that, how about we have everyone wear a mask, slowly reopen (and revert back to shutdowns if cases spike), and social distance, like the CDC recommends?

You know, I don't really have a huge problem with masks.  I'm happy to wear one if I'm going to be in a place like a supermarket (I actually remember kind of regretting not wearing one the last time I went in one).  I just think that most businesses should be open, even those not conducive to masks or social distancing (like restaurants).  As I live alone, I am also going to see friends when I can, as I would go crazy otherwise.

If masks in certain circumstances (like a crowded store) are what it takes to otherwise get back to normal, I'm fine with that.  It kind of feels dystopian when restaurant servers have masks on, but I don't mind that either at the end of the day.

What I do think we need (and even once this is over) is hand sanitizer everywhere.  You should never have a hard time finding it when you enter a store, workplace, church, stadium, or restaurant.

No.  In March, governors and state health officials closed our businesses, suspended our kids' educations, and took our freedoms by exaggerating the risks of COVID-19.

Now they want to trade it back to us for mask mandates, contact tracing and made-up rules?

I don't think so.

Do you think we should throw open the economy and allow for everything to go back to normal? I don't think that's a realistic course of action at this juncture. As I've made clear before, I certainly don't think that the current lockdowns are sustainable, and I think that economic activity ought to be resumed as soon as possible. However, we have to take precautions in doing so, and we have to make sure that our healthcare system isn't overwhelmed by a potential future wave. Moreover, though I've expressed my aversion to mask mandates from government, I think it's within the right of businesses to require them, and if masks help to smooth the transition towards normalcy, then I'll support them. And we certainly need to continue expanding our testing apparatus, so that we can keep better track of cases as they develop.

I generally think all businesses should be able to open with only the most basic social distancing practices enforced (six feet of separation between parties, encouraging frequent handwashing, temperature checks, etc.)  We can continue to enforce limits on visits/new admits to nursing homes and hospitals. 

As far as mass events, I'm pretty comfortable with no restrictions on open-air, outdoor events.  Indoor events like conferences should have some limit, but probably nothing more restrictive than limits on groups of +250 (cruise ships remain a no-go, under these rules).  The only place where I can see an argument for mandatory masking are airplanes (multiple hours with 100% recirculated air and close proximity). 

K-12 schools should plan on opening early later this summer (June/July) for 7-10 weeks of instruction before grade promotion in August/September.  Colleges should have in-person instruction beginning in early August, so that way the semester can finish-up by Thanksgiving and kids can be home from November - January (peak flu season).

For the most part, this seems like a reasonable framework, if you will, for reopening economic activity. I certainly don't think that many of the guidelines which have been currently proposed are reasonable-i.e. the CDC guidelines for reopening schools. And I have become averse towards hearing the phrase "the new normal" which has been utilized so often. But I also do believe that we cannot return to complete normalcy until this pandemic has passed.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The linked article is very interesting, not that long, and worth a read.

https://twitter.com/mims/status/1264503963518468098

[It’s so Joever]

The linked article is very interesting, not that long, and worth a read.

https://twitter.com/mims/status/1264503963518468098

The only real shocking thing there are airplanes and schools.
Schools where I live are very dense and conducive towards spreading diseases in general. Airplanes are just disgusting, even before Covid-19 I always would feel uncomfortable in them. But maybe the fact that people associate those places with disease makes them more likely to be cautious (as opposed to a church or a bar)

[It’s so Joever]

Man, I just love it when people say we should have mask laws OUTDOORS, and keep these laws around until we find a vaccine.

I think we'll have a vaccine sooner than some people think, but what if we never have one?

Also, shouldn't official guidelines recommend moving activities outdoors as much as possible?

I say individual States should keep mask laws until new cases are near zero (in the State), given how easy it is to wear a mask/facial covering and that it does prevent droplet transmission. If that happens before a vaccine is distributed, I would be fine with not having mask laws. As for outdoors, it’s difficult to say, but I would still keep outdoor mask laws until cases drop dramatically.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Anyone else remember back around May 4 when some government model was leaked to the media that predicted a ridiculously high number of new cases by mid-May because of all the states like Montana that were ending their lockdowns?

A lot of crow is being feasted on right now.

More science, less panic.

[emailking]

Anyone else remember back around May 4 when some government model was leaked to the media that predicted a ridiculously high number of new cases by mid-May because of all the states like Montana that were ending their lockdowns?

A lot of crow is being feasted on right now.

More science, less panic.

It was by June, not mid-May.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

It was by June, not mid-May.

Uh, no. It was mid-May.

And we're almost at June now anyway.

[emailking]

Uh, no. It was mid-May.

And we're almost at June now anyway.

Draft report predicts covid-19 cases will reach 200,000 a day by June 1

[Grassroots]

Uh, no. It was mid-May.

And we're almost at June now anyway.

Draft report predicts covid-19 cases will reach 200,000 a day by June 1

LMAO that's hilarious. It's almost like heat exists, people literally REFUSE to factor it in.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The linked article is very interesting, not that long, and worth a read.

https://twitter.com/mims/status/1264503963518468098

As a working hypothesis, I'd conjecture that low transmission rates on airplanes might be related to how dry the air is aboard airplanes.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Even though we are months removed, and the weather is now warm, in my head it still feels like it’s March. Anyone else?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The linked article is very interesting, not that long, and worth a read.

https://twitter.com/mims/status/1264503963518468098

As a working hypothesis, I'd conjecture that low transmission rates on airplanes might be related to how dry the air is aboard airplanes.

I thought the thinking was that dry climates were better for spreading the virus, and humid climates were worse.

[Holmes]

Even though we are months removed, and the weather is now warm, in my head it still feels like it’s March. Anyone else?

Kinda feel that, but for me it's more like the days are moving so fast that I always think the actual date is days or weeks ago.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Even though we are months removed, and the weather is now warm, in my head it still feels like it’s March. Anyone else?

Kinda feel that, but for me it's more like the days are moving so fast that I always think the actual date is days or weeks ago.

I keep thinking we're well into June, because this nonsense has gone on for so long.

[Del Tachi]

Even though we are months removed, and the weather is now warm, in my head it still feels like it’s March. Anyone else?

Yeah people have wasted two months of their lives on this; fortunately, that’s starting to change now as lockdowns are being relaxed.