COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Dr. Arch]

I keep reading here that flattening the curve was not about reducing the number of cases/deaths, just spreading them out over time. But as far as I remember, all of the models showed *many* fewer cases and deaths (like multiples) with a flattened curve than in a business as usual scenario.

The reduced cases/deaths are a result of a normalized bell curve under the healthcare system encumbrance line. Once a health system collapses, the numbers of cases/deaths also skyrocket because that support structure is now gone.

The loss of life and out of control spread that happens once that scenario takes place is a result of the system collapsing more than the projected COVID-19 cases in a vacuum. In other words, those higher numbers also included lives that would have otherwise been saved from COVID-19 and other diseases/conditions as well.

Those nuanced stats are not discussed in public because that kind of detail is usually not necessary to get the point across, but it does generate confusion if people start scrutinizing the model against totals.

So how many people do you estimate will die from the virus if 200 million people are infected, but they are spread out in such a way that the health care system does not collapse?

I neither have the access to the necessary data nor the experience to make those estimates. I can tell you that they would vary greatly with the state of the healthcare system, who's infected, where, and how many at the same time.

I’m stipulating that the state of healthcare systems is good.  Assume no shortage of necessary medical care or equipment.  As for where, if we’re talking about herd immunity, you’d have to assume the infected are pretty evenly spread out around the county.  You can make any assumption you wish about who gets infected and when under our current stay-at-home regime.

For reference, the current IMHE model is estimating that 74,000 will die.

I don't know why you keep talking about herd immunity when we're still not even certain about whether or not someone who's had COVID-19 can be reinfected.

The “flatten the curve” model assumes that people have immunity once they recover as well.  Otherwise, how do you explain either of the curves in the “flatten the curve” figure ever declining?

I'm uncertain about this one. PQG might have an answer here.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1255184301458669571

I do not see how the Executive Branch can unilaterally immunize these companies from liability.  Would one of our resident lawyers comment?

[Storr]

Poll: Cost makes nearly 1 in 10 leery of seeking COVID care

As states gear up to reopen, a poll finds a potential obstacle to controlling the coronavirus: nearly 1 in 10 adults say cost would keep them from seeking help if they thought they were infected.

The Gallup-West Health Healthcare Costs Survey out Tuesday finds that 9% of those age 18 and over would avoid seeking treatment because of concerns about the cost of care, even if they thought they were infected with the coronavirus.

A significantly higher number, 14%, would avoid seeking treatment because of pocketbook worries if they had fever and a dry cough, two widely publicized symptoms of COVID-19.

About a week ago, maybe closer to two weeks...the days blend together when you're self quarantining, a doctor in Seattle being interviewed by NPR stated that her hospital was getting the same number of COVID-19 patients as when the outbreak hit the PNW hard in late February and NPR previously interviewed her. But, the new patients coming in were much sicker than those in February. I immediately sensed the implication that the new patients were mostly people who had become infected and hoped they could "get over it" without going to the hospital due to the high financial costs of doing so. Thus, they were more ill once they finally went to the hospital.

[Tintrlvr]

For the first time since March 18, a state other than New York reported the most new deaths in a day. 335 new deaths reported in NY vs. 398 in NJ today. (On March 18, NY reported no deaths at all and WA reported 14 deaths; NY has been the highest reporter every day since.)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I keep reading here that flattening the curve was not about reducing the number of cases/deaths, just spreading them out over time. But as far as I remember, all of the models showed *many* fewer cases and deaths (like multiples) with a flattened curve than in a business as usual scenario.

The reduced cases/deaths are a result of a normalized bell curve under the healthcare system encumbrance line. Once a health system collapses, the numbers of cases/deaths also skyrocket because that support structure is now gone.

The loss of life and out of control spread that happens once that scenario takes place is a result of the system collapsing more than the projected COVID-19 cases in a vacuum. In other words, those higher numbers also included lives that would have otherwise been saved from COVID-19 and other diseases/conditions as well.

Those nuanced stats are not discussed in public because that kind of detail is usually not necessary to get the point across, but it does generate confusion if people start scrutinizing the model against totals.

So how many people do you estimate will die from the virus if 200 million people are infected, but they are spread out in such a way that the health care system does not collapse?

I neither have the access to the necessary data nor the experience to make those estimates. I can tell you that they would vary greatly with the state of the healthcare system, who's infected, where, and how many at the same time.

I’m stipulating that the state of healthcare systems is good.  Assume no shortage of necessary medical care or equipment.  As for where, if we’re talking about herd immunity, you’d have to assume the infected are pretty evenly spread out around the county.  You can make any assumption you wish about who gets infected and when under our current stay-at-home regime.

For reference, the current IMHE model is estimating that 74,000 will die.

I don't know why you keep talking about herd immunity when we're still not even certain about whether or not someone who's had COVID-19 can be reinfected.

The “flatten the curve” model assumes that people have immunity once they recover as well.  Otherwise, how do you explain either of the curves in the “flatten the curve” figure ever declining?

I'm uncertain about this one. PQG might have an answer here.

Yup! And that's part of the reason why information from antibody tests is so important.  We need an understanding of whether COVID-19 operates like the flu or if it is more similar in nature to VZV (in terms of being able to contract it multiple times). 

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

None of the supporters of the current blanket stay-at-home regime seem to be willing to acknowledge its consequences: at least a million people will die if we keep doing what we are doing.

We can get that fatality rate down much, much lower, but we need to radically rethink our strategy.  And this strategy will require young and healthy people to make some sacrifices to protect the most vulnerable.

[Landslide Lyndon]

These people are fu**ing idiots.

https://twitter.com/HowardMortman/status/1255190214152200199

[Calthrina950]

Mask orders continue to spread across the country. Andy Beshear is now mandating all Kentuckians to wear masks in public by May 11: https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/WATCH-LIVE-Gov-Beshears-daily-COVID-19-update-569985941.html. Apparently, the general public will not be cited if they don't wear them, but they will be "asked" to put them on, and it will be mandatory for essential employees in businesses. The city of Birmingham, Alabama, is also making masks mandatory in public: https://www.al.com/news/2020/04/birmingham-eyes-requiring-masks-in-public.html. And in Colorado, Aspen is also requiring masks: https://denver.cbslocal.com/2020/04/28/face-masks-mandatory-in-aspen/. Both Birmingham and Aspen will fine residents if they don't wear masks. Aspen is the first place in my home state that I am aware of that is making it mandatory.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

These people are fu**ing idiots.

https://twitter.com/HowardMortman/status/1255190214152200199

He's being sensitive to the mask shortage.  

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Mask orders continue to spread across the country. Andy Beshear is now mandating all Kentuckians to wear masks in public by May 11: https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/WATCH-LIVE-Gov-Beshears-daily-COVID-19-update-569985941.html. Apparently, the general public will not be cited if they don't wear them, but they will be "asked" to put them on, and it will be mandatory for essential employees in businesses. The city of Birmingham, Alabama, is also making masks mandatory in public: https://www.al.com/news/2020/04/birmingham-eyes-requiring-masks-in-public.html. And in Colorado, Aspen is also requiring masks: https://denver.cbslocal.com/2020/04/28/face-masks-mandatory-in-aspen/. Both Birmingham and Aspen will fine residents if they don't wear masks. Aspen is the first place in my home state that I am aware of that is making it mandatory.

How long do these mandatory masks orders last for I've seen as soon as they can last a year

[GeorgiaModerate]

On Pence's visit to the Mayo Clinic:

https://twitter.com/MarshallCohen/status/1255211616746057733

[Calthrina950]

Mask orders continue to spread across the country. Andy Beshear is now mandating all Kentuckians to wear masks in public by May 11: https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/WATCH-LIVE-Gov-Beshears-daily-COVID-19-update-569985941.html. Apparently, the general public will not be cited if they don't wear them, but they will be "asked" to put them on, and it will be mandatory for essential employees in businesses. The city of Birmingham, Alabama, is also making masks mandatory in public: https://www.al.com/news/2020/04/birmingham-eyes-requiring-masks-in-public.html. And in Colorado, Aspen is also requiring masks: https://denver.cbslocal.com/2020/04/28/face-masks-mandatory-in-aspen/. Both Birmingham and Aspen will fine residents if they don't wear masks. Aspen is the first place in my home state that I am aware of that is making it mandatory.

How long do these mandatory masks orders last for I've seen as soon as they can last a year

The order in Aspen lasts until May 27; that for essential employees in Colorado, through May 17. And there's a correction due. Two other jurisdictions, Glenwood Springs and Wheat Ridge, have also mandated mask-wearing in public, in Colorado. The order in Wheat Ridge goes until May 30. I'm not sure about the other mask orders, but I wouldn't be surprised if the one affecting me (the essential employees order) is extended past May 17. It would be astonishing if masks were to remain the norm for the rest of the year, but given the nature and spread of this pandemic, it would be a necessary sacrifice, like I've said before.

Also, when Polis held his daily press conference on the first day of the "Safer At Home" order, he said that Coloradoans needed to "step up" with wearing masks in public, and that we couldn't afford to see a drop in the numbers of people who did. For now, mask-wearing is still advisory in Colorado (except for those jurisdictions that have now made it mandatory). I can easily see that changing, given the nationwide trends that have been taking place. El Paso County and Colorado Springs will never make it mandatory unless if the state does so.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

On Pence's visit to the Mayo Clinic:

https://twitter.com/MarshallCohen/status/1255211616746057733

This is an exercise in demonstrating power.

Pence knows what he's doing is stupid. He knows he doesn't need to visit the clinic, and that he should absolutely be wearing a mask. He is abusing his power as (illegitimate) Vice-President, to force the Mayo Clinic into the same reality-rejecting realm that he, Mr. Trump, and their fellow cultists occupy.

There is no engaging with this. No room for negotiation or debate. No politics. The cult and its leaders and enablers will continually being aggressively stupid until they die. All that remains is how the human race ought to best deal with the challenge they pose to our survival and our values.

[Tintrlvr]

Mask orders continue to spread across the country. Andy Beshear is now mandating all Kentuckians to wear masks in public by May 11: https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/WATCH-LIVE-Gov-Beshears-daily-COVID-19-update-569985941.html. Apparently, the general public will not be cited if they don't wear them, but they will be "asked" to put them on, and it will be mandatory for essential employees in businesses. The city of Birmingham, Alabama, is also making masks mandatory in public: https://www.al.com/news/2020/04/birmingham-eyes-requiring-masks-in-public.html. And in Colorado, Aspen is also requiring masks: https://denver.cbslocal.com/2020/04/28/face-masks-mandatory-in-aspen/. Both Birmingham and Aspen will fine residents if they don't wear masks. Aspen is the first place in my home state that I am aware of that is making it mandatory.

How long do these mandatory masks orders last for I've seen as soon as they can last a year

Honestly why would this be a big deal? Mandatory masks in public spaces are much less intrusive than various closure/lockdown/stay-at-home rules.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Mask orders continue to spread across the country. Andy Beshear is now mandating all Kentuckians to wear masks in public by May 11: https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/WATCH-LIVE-Gov-Beshears-daily-COVID-19-update-569985941.html. Apparently, the general public will not be cited if they don't wear them, but they will be "asked" to put them on, and it will be mandatory for essential employees in businesses. The city of Birmingham, Alabama, is also making masks mandatory in public: https://www.al.com/news/2020/04/birmingham-eyes-requiring-masks-in-public.html. And in Colorado, Aspen is also requiring masks: https://denver.cbslocal.com/2020/04/28/face-masks-mandatory-in-aspen/. Both Birmingham and Aspen will fine residents if they don't wear masks. Aspen is the first place in my home state that I am aware of that is making it mandatory.

How long do these mandatory masks orders last for I've seen as soon as they can last a year

Honestly why would this be a big deal? Mandatory masks in public spaces are much less intrusive than various closure/lockdown/stay-at-home rules.

Because you're telling people what to do.

My own views aside, people -- especially Americans -- get very touchy about being told what to do (or when they sense that they're being told what to do).

[Nhoj]

There is of course the distinct possibility that pence already had it back when a bunch of people he was in contact with did.  Its still for the best to wear a mask to encourage others to do so and because the science on immunity isnt set yet.

[Calthrina950]

Mask orders continue to spread across the country. Andy Beshear is now mandating all Kentuckians to wear masks in public by May 11: https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/WATCH-LIVE-Gov-Beshears-daily-COVID-19-update-569985941.html. Apparently, the general public will not be cited if they don't wear them, but they will be "asked" to put them on, and it will be mandatory for essential employees in businesses. The city of Birmingham, Alabama, is also making masks mandatory in public: https://www.al.com/news/2020/04/birmingham-eyes-requiring-masks-in-public.html. And in Colorado, Aspen is also requiring masks: https://denver.cbslocal.com/2020/04/28/face-masks-mandatory-in-aspen/. Both Birmingham and Aspen will fine residents if they don't wear masks. Aspen is the first place in my home state that I am aware of that is making it mandatory.

How long do these mandatory masks orders last for I've seen as soon as they can last a year

Honestly why would this be a big deal? Mandatory masks in public spaces are much less intrusive than various closure/lockdown/stay-at-home rules.

Because you're telling people what to do.

My own views aside, people -- especially Americans -- get very touchy about being told what to do (or when they sense that they're being told what to do).

This is certainly true. For example, as I'm sure you're aware, this has arisen in your home state of Texas. Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo issued an order last week mandating that all residents there wear masks in public, or face a $1,000 fine for not doing so. Governor Abbott, however, in issuing his executive order today outlining Texas's gradual reopening process, explicitly overruled the fine requirement, stating that local jurisdictions in Texas cannot fine or penalize people who don't want to wear masks. In addition to Harris County, Bexar, Travis, and Dallas Counties, and the city of Laredo had also issued mandatory mask orders. Any penalties from those orders are overridden as well.

I've also seen a number of articles discussing the traditional hostility in this country to wearing masks, which have typically been associated with government intrusiveness and with criminality (i.e. black inner-city "thugs", the Ku Klux Klan). Nevertheless, it seems like the majority of Americans have accepted it, and there is of course the example of the Spanish Flu from a century ago, when mask-wearing became common in many cities.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Mask orders continue to spread across the country. Andy Beshear is now mandating all Kentuckians to wear masks in public by May 11: https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/WATCH-LIVE-Gov-Beshears-daily-COVID-19-update-569985941.html. Apparently, the general public will not be cited if they don't wear them, but they will be "asked" to put them on, and it will be mandatory for essential employees in businesses. The city of Birmingham, Alabama, is also making masks mandatory in public: https://www.al.com/news/2020/04/birmingham-eyes-requiring-masks-in-public.html. And in Colorado, Aspen is also requiring masks: https://denver.cbslocal.com/2020/04/28/face-masks-mandatory-in-aspen/. Both Birmingham and Aspen will fine residents if they don't wear masks. Aspen is the first place in my home state that I am aware of that is making it mandatory.

How long do these mandatory masks orders last for I've seen as soon as they can last a year

Honestly why would this be a big deal? Mandatory masks in public spaces are much less intrusive than various closure/lockdown/stay-at-home rules.

Because you're telling people what to do.

My own views aside, people -- especially Americans -- get very touchy about being told what to do (or when they sense that they're being told what to do).

This is certainly true. For example, as I'm sure you're aware, this has arisen in your home state of Texas. Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo issued an order last week mandating that all residents there wear masks in public, or face a $1,000 fine for not doing so. Governor Abbott, however, in issuing his executive order today outlining Texas's gradual reopening process, explicitly overruled the fine requirement, stating that local jurisdictions in Texas cannot fine or penalize people who don't want to wear masks. In addition to Harris County, Bexar, Travis, and Dallas Counties, and the city of Laredo had also issued mandatory mask orders. Any penalties from those orders are overridden as well.

I've also seen a number of articles discussing the traditional hostility in this country to wearing masks, which have typically been associated with government intrusiveness and with criminality (i.e. black inner-city "thugs", the Ku Klux Klan). Nevertheless, it seems like the majority of Americans have accepted it, and there is of course the example of the Spanish Flu from a century ago, when mask-wearing became common in many cities.

Regarding the last part, Georgia actually has a law that makes it a misdemeanor to wear a mask in public (with a few exceptions), dating from the Klan days.  Kemp suspended it during the state of emergency after concerns were raised that people could be prosecuted under it.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I think this Washington Post article that was just posted is a good summary of growing consensus across scientific studies of an overall IFR of around 0.6%:

Antibody tests support what’s been obvious: Covid-19 is much more lethal than the flu

[Calthrina950]

Mask orders continue to spread across the country. Andy Beshear is now mandating all Kentuckians to wear masks in public by May 11: https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/WATCH-LIVE-Gov-Beshears-daily-COVID-19-update-569985941.html. Apparently, the general public will not be cited if they don't wear them, but they will be "asked" to put them on, and it will be mandatory for essential employees in businesses. The city of Birmingham, Alabama, is also making masks mandatory in public: https://www.al.com/news/2020/04/birmingham-eyes-requiring-masks-in-public.html. And in Colorado, Aspen is also requiring masks: https://denver.cbslocal.com/2020/04/28/face-masks-mandatory-in-aspen/. Both Birmingham and Aspen will fine residents if they don't wear masks. Aspen is the first place in my home state that I am aware of that is making it mandatory.

How long do these mandatory masks orders last for I've seen as soon as they can last a year

Honestly why would this be a big deal? Mandatory masks in public spaces are much less intrusive than various closure/lockdown/stay-at-home rules.

Because you're telling people what to do.

My own views aside, people -- especially Americans -- get very touchy about being told what to do (or when they sense that they're being told what to do).

This is certainly true. For example, as I'm sure you're aware, this has arisen in your home state of Texas. Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo issued an order last week mandating that all residents there wear masks in public, or face a $1,000 fine for not doing so. Governor Abbott, however, in issuing his executive order today outlining Texas's gradual reopening process, explicitly overruled the fine requirement, stating that local jurisdictions in Texas cannot fine or penalize people who don't want to wear masks. In addition to Harris County, Bexar, Travis, and Dallas Counties, and the city of Laredo had also issued mandatory mask orders. Any penalties from those orders are overridden as well.

I've also seen a number of articles discussing the traditional hostility in this country to wearing masks, which have typically been associated with government intrusiveness and with criminality (i.e. black inner-city "thugs", the Ku Klux Klan). Nevertheless, it seems like the majority of Americans have accepted it, and there is of course the example of the Spanish Flu from a century ago, when mask-wearing became common in many cities.

Regarding the last part, Georgia actually has a law that makes it a misdemeanor to wear a mask in public (with a few exceptions), dating from the Klan days.  Kemp suspended it during the state of emergency after concerns were raised that people could be prosecuted under it.

I recall reading that Virginia has a similar law, but the law provides exceptions for states of emergency and public health emergencies, and Governor Northam invoked those provisions when recommending all Virginians to wear masks in public.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1255184301458669571

I do not see how the Executive Branch can unilaterally immunize these companies from liability.  Would one of our resident lawyers comment?

Frick if I know. Perhaps it is limiting liability for violation of FDA or other food and health/safety regulations enforced by the Department of Agriculture or Department of Commerce. Even those regulations would largely require proper administrative rule finding and the like,.

In all seriousness, the other alternative explanation is this is the equivalent of trump waving a stick he claims is a magic wand and proclaiming himself King of the Moon. He has been known issues such Fantasyland unenforceable orders multiple times in the past, being egged on by a combination of ever present sycophants and unitary executive theorists In The West Wing.

[QAnonKelly]

Now they’re estimating that 36 ppl got COVID at the WI primaries

[Landslide Lyndon]

We aren't worthy.

https://twitter.com/nataliewsj/status/1255234681685106691

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Now they’re estimating that 36 ppl got COVID at the WI primaries

Given that the projections estimate about 42,000 people in Wisconsin have been infected in total, this seems awfully low.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

We aren't worthy.

https://twitter.com/nataliewsj/status/1255234681685106691

I sometime get upset when Pelosi gets attacked over dumb things, but then I remember that she probably doesn't give two sh**ts and definitely laughs it off.