COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Calthrina950]

Hasn't it been about a week since NY instated their most stringing requirements, including mandating masks? I see that as having an effect more so than herd immunity at this point.

It depends on what you mean. In the short run, yes masks may be more immediately helpful. But in the long run, it's not enough to get the numbers down unless we completely eradicate the virus. We eventually need to either get the numbers down to effectively zero, or get herd immunity, or else the virus will keep coming back anytime we relax the quarantines at all. NYC area is probably a lot closer to herd immunity than it is to eradication, though obviously the latter is preferable.

New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Maryland have now all mandated wearing masks in public. I wonder if any other states are going to follow suit. As I noted, Colorado required all essential employees to wear masks last Friday (though I don't think that requirement will be extended to the general public at this point, given Polis' moves towards gradually reopening the state economy). However, it seems that a solid majority of Americans have gotten used to wearing masks in public at this point, and that's a good thing.

[roxas11]

Why is it whenever something like this happens, there always has to be conspiracy theories that flare up?

Because its hard for people to accept the simple explanation
there always has to be some comic book Super Villain and A super secrete organization that is always pulling the strings behind the scenes and if you go by what the internet is saying illuminati leader Jay Z is somehow always involved lol    


Now make no mistake China is 100 percent responsible for trying to cover it up and letting those food markets that allowed people to eat Bats and Dogs to stay open for decades But I do not for 1 second buy that china created a virus that damaged their own economy and hurt their image with tourist. even the timing is for the Chinese lab conspiracy makes no senses at all

Think about it this all started During the Chinese new year celebrations
there is No way in Hell that Chinese Government wanted something like this to play out right when they were hyping up how great china is. All of millions they spent on good PR suddenly went down the toilet the second this virus showed up.  

[Grassroots]

Hasn't it been about a week since NY instated their most stringing requirements, including mandating masks? I see that as having an effect more so than herd immunity at this point.

It depends on what you mean. In the short run, yes masks may be more immediately helpful. But in the long run, it's not enough to get the numbers down unless we completely eradicate the virus. We eventually need to either get the numbers down to effectively zero, or get herd immunity, or else the virus will keep coming back anytime we relax the quarantines at all. NYC area is probably a lot closer to herd immunity than it is to eradication, though obviously the latter is preferable.

Or, the government could just do what everyone else is doing and use contact tracing and easy testing to keep the virus under control, and enact local stay at home orders in areas where local outbreaks occur.

You aren't even factoring in heat.

[TJ in Oregon]

Hasn't it been about a week since NY instated their most stringing requirements, including mandating masks? I see that as having an effect more so than herd immunity at this point.

It depends on what you mean. In the short run, yes masks may be more immediately helpful. But in the long run, it's not enough to get the numbers down unless we completely eradicate the virus. We eventually need to either get the numbers down to effectively zero, or get herd immunity, or else the virus will keep coming back anytime we relax the quarantines at all. NYC area is probably a lot closer to herd immunity than it is to eradication, though obviously the latter is preferable.

Or, the government could just do what everyone else is doing and use contact tracing and easy testing to keep the virus under control, and enact local stay at home orders in areas where local outbreaks occur.

You aren't even factoring in heat.

That's assuming we can get the infection down to very very low levels to begin with.  We're not going to be able to contact trace 700k people, much less the number of mild or asymptomatic people. Being able to get into a regime where that's possible is a very good goal -- well beyond just flattening the curve. Ultimately the goal of this is to eradicate the virus (or hold it off from the general population until a vaccine).

This is the best option from the standpoint of saving lives, but means a long haul of quarantines first.

[Grassroots]

Hasn't it been about a week since NY instated their most stringing requirements, including mandating masks? I see that as having an effect more so than herd immunity at this point.

It depends on what you mean. In the short run, yes masks may be more immediately helpful. But in the long run, it's not enough to get the numbers down unless we completely eradicate the virus. We eventually need to either get the numbers down to effectively zero, or get herd immunity, or else the virus will keep coming back anytime we relax the quarantines at all. NYC area is probably a lot closer to herd immunity than it is to eradication, though obviously the latter is preferable.

Or, the government could just do what everyone else is doing and use contact tracing and easy testing to keep the virus under control, and enact local stay at home orders in areas where local outbreaks occur.

You aren't even factoring in heat.

That's assuming we can get the infection down to very very low levels to begin with.  We're not going to be able to contact trace 700k people, much less the number of mild or asymptomatic people. Being able to get into a regime where that's possible is a very good goal -- well beyond just flattening the curve. Ultimately the goal of this is to eradicate the virus (or hold it off from the general population until a vaccine).

This is the best option from the standpoint of saving lives, but means a long haul of quarantines first.

From how I see it, this is what is going to happen.

New case rates continue to fall and Meclazine's map becomes reality. By June we are at 100-200 cases per day nationally. Governors drop restrictions and adopt contact tracing measures. "Winter is coming" becomes reality as hospitals are fear mongered into swelling capacity in anticipation for a second surge. The government suppresses local outbreaks with social distancing orders and stay at home orders in those areas. Treatments such as plasma and Remdesivir are approved and put in the hands of hospitals. A second wave eventually hits, shortly after election day, and social distancing is introduced again, but to a lesser extent due to treatments and strong capacity. A vaccine is approved in spring and is mass produced (if not already).

[GoTfan]

Am I the only one who thinks that Gilead is just leaking results so they can pump their stock prices?

I just have zero faith that anything works at this point.

Ur like the opposite of Donald Trump's Toupe

Thats a pretty big compliment.

But seriosuly, I have absolutely no faith that anything will actually work at this point.

[Grassroots]

Am I the only one who thinks that Gilead is just leaking results so they can pump their stock prices?

I just have zero faith that anything works at this point.

Ur like the opposite of Donald Trump's Toupe

Thats a pretty big compliment.

But seriosuly, I have absolutely no faith that anything will actually work at this point.

K

[T'Chenka]

Am I the only one who thinks that Gilead is just leaking results so they can pump their stock prices?

I just have zero faith that anything works at this point.

Ur like the opposite of Donald Trump's Toupe

Thats a pretty big compliment.

But seriosuly, I have absolutely no faith that anything will actually work at this point.

Hope springs eternal in the breast of man. =)

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1252808909456203776

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1252808909456203776

Hardly a surprise the virus was spread earlier than expected. Similar to Italy.

What's problematic with reported Covid19 deaths is there can't be made a statistical distinction between deaths from covid19 and deaths in spite of the disease. It's not unlikely some deaths are not the direct result of the disease. On the other hand, some deaths from it could be undiscovered due to a lack of testing and previous symptoms.

[Badger]

Updated data from CDC show that more Americans over the age of 85 have died of COVID-19 than those under age 65.  The risks to young people are terribly overstated by the sensationalist media. 

It is a shame that an 86 year olds life means less to you people than the life of a 55 year old.

I can guarantee you it doesn't to him. He's just showing the truth.

But it's ok, continue to assume a moral high-ground which you don't have.

You might want to tone it down.

Quite the understatement.

[BlueSwan]

So US deaths have passed 45k while still averaging roughly 2k a day. Is the Trump administration still claiming that the eventual death toll will be 60k? They'll likely cross that before the month is over.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Does anyone else think this will cause a food shortage in the US?

No, but it has in Thailand with protesters upset about the restrictions impact on their food supply.

Thailand Lockdown Protests

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bnoRPYhp4R4

[GoTfan]

Am I the only one who thinks that Gilead is just leaking results so they can pump their stock prices?

I just have zero faith that anything works at this point.

Ur like the opposite of Donald Trump's Toupe

Thats a pretty big compliment.

But seriosuly, I have absolutely no faith that anything will actually work at this point.

Hope springs eternal in the breast of man. =)

Hope is the first step on the road to disappointment.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Looking at the models I think the University of Texas model is more accurate than the IHME model, since the UT model uses GPS tracking to get an idea of what level of social distancing is occurring plus other factors that the IHME model doesn't use

[roxas11]

So US deaths have passed 45k while still averaging roughly 2k a day. Is the Trump administration still claiming that the eventual death toll will be 60k? They'll likely cross that before the month is over.

trump put himself in a terrible position on this

He spent months Attacking Obama and Biden over the 12,000 deaths that the swine flu had caused

Now by the time this is all over the death toll will be much bigger than it ever was with swine flu and it was also but a lot bigger than trumps own optimistic  60k projection.

good luck explaining that away to the voters in November

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Australia reports just 4 new cases today.....I envy the Aussies....I hope one day we get to that number...

[Meclazine for Israel]

So US deaths have passed 45k while still averaging roughly 2k a day. Is the Trump administration still claiming that the eventual death toll will be 60k? They'll likely cross that before the month is over.

trump put himself in a terrible position on this

He spent months Attacking Obama and Biden over the 12,000 deaths that the swine flu had caused

Now by the time this is all over the death toll will be much bigger than it ever was with swine flu and it was also but a lot bigger than trumps own optimistic  60k projection.

good luck explaining that away to the voters in November

Not really. You're in the midst of an anti-Trump fantasy. He simply turns to Dr Birx and asks for guidance.

She said 60-65k a couple of days ago. That may change.

The USA is in the grips of a national emergency, and you are drooling over these deaths hoping for more to prove a point with a pre-pubescent forum post.

You have the wrong perspective on this pandemic.

[Inmate Trump]

So US deaths have passed 45k while still averaging roughly 2k a day. Is the Trump administration still claiming that the eventual death toll will be 60k? They'll likely cross that before the month is over.

trump put himself in a terrible position on this

He spent months Attacking Obama and Biden over the 12,000 deaths that the swine flu had caused

Now by the time this is all over the death toll will be much bigger than it ever was with swine flu and it was also but a lot bigger than trumps own optimistic  60k projection.

good luck explaining that away to the voters in November

Not really. You're in the midst of an anti-Trump fantasy. He simply turns to Dr Birx and asks for guidance.

She said 60-65k a couple of days ago. That may change.

The USA is in the grips of a national emergency, and you are drooling over these deaths hoping for more to prove a point with a pre-pubescent forum post.

You have the wrong perspective on this pandemic.

I don’t think anyone wants more deaths and it’s awful you’d suggest that.

I am fervently anti-Trump, and while I recognize he’s done a terrible job, I still hope he’ll do well. The fact is, Republicans have never taken this crisis as seriously as it very clearly is. That’s why you have a few reopening way too early and others who took way too long to shut down. And with Trump giving conflicting advice and openly encouraging dissent among the populations of Democratic states. He is sowing mistrust and creating even more panic, all for political purposes.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/nickgourevitch/status/1252921977901326336

[SnowLabrador]

I'm really hoping that I can go skiing again next winter. This appears unlikely now, sadly.

[jamestroll]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-n-warns-hunger-pandemic-amid-threats-coronavirus-economic-downturn-n1189326

Can we stop pretending that we will be all locked down for years and that it will be worth it past June?

I know most people on this forum come from households earning millions a year but...

[GeorgiaModerate]

I know most people on this forum come from households earning millions a year but...

What on Earth gives you that impression?

[SnowLabrador]

I know most people on this forum come from households earning millions a year but...

What on Earth gives you that impression?

I'm wondering this too.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I know most people on this forum come from households earning millions a year but...

What on Earth gives you that impression?

I'm wondering this too.

Now I'm really curious as to what the actual distribution is.  I just started a poll in Forum Community about it: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=370186.0