Which of these reliably red deep south states has the most potential to become more competitive?

[Tartarus Sauce]

NC Yankee has extensively outlined the problems Republicans in Mississippi are going to face due to generational replacement among whites. Due to the fact that 37% of the state is black, having the white population go from voting 90% Republican to let’s say 75%-80% Republican turns a state like Mississippi purple.

This will play out in all the Southern states to varying degrees, and is already well underway in VA, NC, GA, and TX. But in places like AL, TN, AR, and SC, there aren’t anywhere near as many blacks as there are in MS to give Democrats such a high floor. Louisiana is interesting because it’s 5% less black than Mississippi, but has two decently sized metropolitan areas which at least in theory should give Democrats more potential inroads with whites, but I’m skeptical that it would be enough to offset the decreased potential for black votes. South Carolina is around 28%-29% black, so even less than Louisiana’s 32%, but the whites aren’t quite as Republican as they are in Mississippi or Louisiana. Democrats obviously have room to grow with whites in the Charleston and Columbia metropolitan areas, but there are very powerful counterbalances in the form of Upland Evangelical Baptists and conservative retirees in the Myrtle Beach area that I think will prevent the state from being truly competitive for awhile.

The fact that Mississippi is the most likely turn purple first is a testament to the importance of black voters for Democrats in the South, because although Republicans will net reduced margins among whites in all the current deep red Southern states down the line, their margins among whites will decrease the least in Mississippi relative to the other states. Most of the gains for Democrats will come from urban whites and there just aren’t that many in Mississippi.