Which of these reliably red deep south states has the most potential to become more competitive?

[MARGINS6729]

Everyone knows Georgia is the most competitive deep south state currently (I do not consider Florida to be a southern state politically) but out of these four states which do you think has the most potential to becoming more competitive for the Democrats both on the state level and on the presidential level? 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

We can almost immediately cross Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee off the list. 

Though Alabama elected a Democratic Senator about two-and-a-half years ago and Tennessee's native son drew within four points of George W. Bush in the 2000 Presidential Election, these states are just too far inelastic to become competitive for the blues within the near future (at the Presidential level, anyway). 

My pick would be South Carolina, but it would be a personal toss-up between that and Louisiana. 

In order for any Democrat to make any of these states competitive, they would have to run a charismatic southerner with JBE-type politics against a weak (and potentially scandalized) Republican opponent.  And even then, I'm not sure that would be enough to outright win. 

[Stranger in a strange land]

Pretty obviously SC:

- Dems have a relatively high floor there
- Charleston, Columbia, & Greenville all have suburbs that could swing Dem long-term given the right growth pattern
- It's the best fit for the Dems' current coalition, and the same trends that are causing GA & NC to swing (non-Atlas) blue might eventually take hold in SC.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Mississippi, with SC very close behind.

[pbrower2a]

Louisiana -- large Catholic vote. Biden is a devout Catholic, and Trump is only marginally Christian. Other than that, these states go D if white voters become less tribal.

[Del Tachi]

We can almost immediately cross Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee off the list. 

Though Alabama elected a Democratic Senator about two-and-a-half years ago and Tennessee's native son drew within four points of George W. Bush in the 2000 Presidential Election, these states are just too far inelastic to become competitive for the blues within the near future (at the Presidential level, anyway). 

My pick would be South Carolina, but it would be a personal toss-up between that and Louisiana. 

In order for any Democrat to make any of these states competitive, they would have to run a charismatic southerner with JBE-type politics against a weak (and potentially scandalized) Republican opponent.  And even then, I'm not sure that would be enough to outright win. 

Mississippi has hyper-racialized partisan voting habits (moreso than SC or LA, probably) but also a larger African American electorate than any other state.  MS is on-track to being plurality Black as early as 2040.  That alone makes its the most likely state in the Deep South to eventually become competitive.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

We can almost immediately cross Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee off the list. 

Though Alabama elected a Democratic Senator about two-and-a-half years ago and Tennessee's native son drew within four points of George W. Bush in the 2000 Presidential Election, these states are just too far inelastic to become competitive for the blues within the near future (at the Presidential level, anyway). 

My pick would be South Carolina, but it would be a personal toss-up between that and Louisiana. 

In order for any Democrat to make any of these states competitive, they would have to run a charismatic southerner with JBE-type politics against a weak (and potentially scandalized) Republican opponent.  And even then, I'm not sure that would be enough to outright win. 

Mississippi has hyper-racialized partisan voting habits (moreso than SC or LA, probably) but also a larger African American electorate than any other state.  MS is on-track to being plurality Black as early as 2040.  That alone makes its the most likely state in the Deep South to eventually become competitive.

I'll defer to you as you're obviously much more in-tune with your state, Del Tachi

[OSR stands with Israel]

We can almost immediately cross Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee off the list. 

Though Alabama elected a Democratic Senator about two-and-a-half years ago and Tennessee's native son drew within four points of George W. Bush in the 2000 Presidential Election, these states are just too far inelastic to become competitive for the blues within the near future (at the Presidential level, anyway). 

My pick would be South Carolina, but it would be a personal toss-up between that and Louisiana. 

In order for any Democrat to make any of these states competitive, they would have to run a charismatic southerner with JBE-type politics against a weak (and potentially scandalized) Republican opponent.  And even then, I'm not sure that would be enough to outright win. 

Mississippi has hyper-racialized partisan voting habits (moreso than SC or LA, probably) but also a larger African American electorate than any other state.  MS is on-track to being plurality Black as early as 2040.  That alone makes its the most likely state in the Deep South to eventually become competitive.

I'll defer to you as you're obviously much more in-tune with your state, Del Tachi

I would say it becomes Dem by 2032 as Republicans wont be able to get the numbers they need with White voters to keep that state R. I think they need  80% to win the state but with millennials and gen z proportion of the population growing that wont happen by 2032 so the state would go D.


Also given how small it is the GOP wont do anything to save it while for GA and definitely TX the GOP will given how it will be hard for them to win without GA and without TX well then the GOP is done even if trends makes MN MI PA WI NH ME CT DE all Republican. So GOP will adapt to save TX but for MS they wont as parties rarely adapt to save states that are worth less than 10 EV

[Roronoa D. Law]

South Carolina, believe other avatars from the south on here. MS can have a black plurality and it will still take 10-15 before it show up in the voting population. SC is more demographically similar to GA and NC. Its population is more educated and its whites are more Democratic than Georgia. 

[Landslide Lyndon]

If Jackson and Memphis suburbs start moving towards Democrats (and they already showed some movement in the senate and governor races) then Mississippi will become very competitive.

[TDAS04]

South Carolina

[Storr]

Mississippi, based on race alone. I don't feel like South Carolina could become competitive in the next 30 or so years unless (similar to what happened to NC) Northeastern transplants/retirees and increased urbanization gradually makes the state less solidly R.

[MARGINS6729]

The fact that these states have such large amounts of black voters used to make me wonder why they aren't more competitive even with all of the voter suppression that happens in these states but I just realized that the Democrats just have zero support with white voters in them. Obviously there are whites that vote for DEMS in them but they just get crushed with them overall every single time.

I voted for SC too.

[Tartarus Sauce]

NC Yankee has extensively outlined the problems Republicans in Mississippi are going to face due to generational replacement among whites. Due to the fact that 37% of the state is black, having the white population go from voting 90% Republican to let’s say 75%-80% Republican turns a state like Mississippi purple.

This will play out in all the Southern states to varying degrees, and is already well underway in VA, NC, GA, and TX. But in places like AL, TN, AR, and SC, there aren’t anywhere near as many blacks as there are in MS to give Democrats such a high floor. Louisiana is interesting because it’s 5% less black than Mississippi, but has two decently sized metropolitan areas which at least in theory should give Democrats more potential inroads with whites, but I’m skeptical that it would be enough to offset the decreased potential for black votes. South Carolina is around 28%-29% black, so even less than Louisiana’s 32%, but the whites aren’t quite as Republican as they are in Mississippi or Louisiana. Democrats obviously have room to grow with whites in the Charleston and Columbia metropolitan areas, but there are very powerful counterbalances in the form of Upland Evangelical Baptists and conservative retirees in the Myrtle Beach area that I think will prevent the state from being truly competitive for awhile.

The fact that Mississippi is the most likely turn purple first is a testament to the importance of black voters for Democrats in the South, because although Republicans will net reduced margins among whites in all the current deep red Southern states down the line, their margins among whites will decrease the least in Mississippi relative to the other states. Most of the gains for Democrats will come from urban whites and there just aren’t that many in Mississippi.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It should be noted that while SC has indeed gotten loads of transplants, they haven't actually made the state any more Democratic than it would be otherwise. Probably the majority of these transplants are in fact conservative (and disproportionately older than the nation overall), and they've added to roaring growth in places like Horry County.

[walleye26]

Can anybody get me a graph or exit poll of age range and percentage Republican whites voted for in both SC and MS? I know old whites in MS vote 90%+ for GOP, is that number like 75% for 18-29 year old whites?

[I’m not Stu]

1. South Carolina
2. Louisiana
3. Mississippi

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Can anybody get me a graph or exit poll of age range and percentage Republican whites voted for in both SC and MS? I know old whites in MS vote 90%+ for GOP, is that number like 75% for 18-29 year old whites?

I've only ever seen age and race combination crosstabs on the national exit polls, not state by state ones.  Maybe check FOX's voter analysis this year since they sometimes used different questions and breakdowns in the midterms.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

SC when we get Senate polls in SC, KY, AK and IA

[RJ]

Louisiana seems like an obvious choice to me. AL just elected a Democratic senator a couple of years ago but that election was skewed. Otherwise LA is the only one of those states to elect and currently have a Democratic governor and has most recently(since the 90's) elected a Democratic senator, and a 2 termer at that. There's also a rather large urban area in it.

What would make someone think Mississippi or South Carolina??

[Tintrlvr]

Louisiana seems like an obvious choice to me. AL just elected a Democratic senator a couple of years ago but that election was skewed. Otherwise LA is the only one of those states to elect a Democratic governor and has most recently elected a Democratic senator, and a 2 termer at that. There's also a rather large urban area in it.

What would make someone think Mississippi or South Carolina??

Mississippi I guess because it has the largest black population so a solid floor for the Democrats. I don't see it.

South Carolina because it has the least-Republican base of white voters of all of the states on the list (not than Tennessee historically but certainly in the 2016-2018 era) and is the most likely to attract Northern (especially Northeastern) relocations, or liberal relocations from Atlanta as Atlanta changes, for essentially business reasons as it has a somewhat more sophisticated economy in Charleston, Columbia and the Charlotte suburbs.

Sure, Louisiana has New Orleans, but NOLA is just a small part of the state, and the whole state outside of New Orleans is just a constant set of rural Southern Republican stereotypes with really nothing to attract outsiders.

In 2030, Georgia will be where Virginia is now, and South Carolina will be where Georgia is now.

[MARGINS6729]

Don't you think that Knox County is a place where Democrats could grow in Tennessee though?

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

South Carolina has a more elastic electorate.  It is also a growing state with persons from all over the country coming there.

[MARGINS6729]

Do you think it will gain an electoral vote? Just curious.

Remember that people moving there from all over the country can also include conservative retirees from the midwest and northeast who are moving to Florida and to North Carolina and helping Republicans win races there. So they might just be helping the state get redder lol.

[Tintrlvr]

Do you think it will gain an electoral vote? Just curious.

Remember that people moving there from all over the country can also include conservative retirees from the midwest and northeast who are moving to Florida and to North Carolina and helping Republicans win races there. So they might just be helping the state get redder lol.

South Carolina is not really a retirement destination outside of Horry County. Same for North Carolina really. Retirees are not a big part of the population growth in either state (unlike Florida).