State legislative chambers that could flip

[Skill and Chance]

What about NC House?  The margin is narrower there. 

If the Florida Senate is nonviable, what does the Florida House look like?   

Any hope of flipping the GA house or getting it very close so they have second thoughts about gerrymandering?

There are also a couple of places with supermajorities relevant to redistricting.  Is a 60% R majority in both houses viable in North Carolina?  Is the 1 seat R supermajority in the Kansas lower house likely to be broken, which would ensure the Dem governor's veto is sustained?  R's aren't far from a 2/3rds majority in Wisconsin coming off of the 2018 Dem wave.  Are there enough seats in play that they could win veto override power on a good night?  Is the Dem supermajority in Massachusetts at risk? 

[Skill and Chance]

What about NC House?  The margin is narrower there. 

If the Florida Senate is nonviable, what does the Florida House look like?   

Any hope of flipping the GA house or getting it very close so they have second thoughts about gerrymandering?

There are also a couple of places with supermajorities relevant to redistricting.  Is a 60% R majority in both houses viable in North Carolina?  Is the 1 seat R supermajority in the Kansas lower house likely to be broken, which would ensure the Dem governor's veto is sustained?  R's aren't far from a 2/3rds majority in Wisconsin coming off of the 2018 Dem wave.  Are there enough seats in play that they could win veto override power on a good night?  Is the Dem supermajority in Massachusetts at risk? 

The NC House could happen if Trump loses the state.

Neither House in GA is happening.  Same with the Florida House.

Republicans could get to 2/3rds in the Wisconsin Senate on a good night, but almost certainly not in the Assembly.  There is only one Dem left in an Assembly district Trump won (and narrowly). 

The Massachusetts House and Senate have no chance of falling below 2/3rds Dem. 

How about Kansas?  I don't think Republicans there are organized enough to override the veto as it is, but are they favored to stay over the threshold?

[Skill and Chance]

So not a ton that matters here for redistricting purposes. 

AK: constitutional commission process
AZ: constitutional commission process
IA: statute commission process, technically open to shenanigans but no one seems to be pushing it
KS: Dems could deny veto proof GOP majority, ensuring a court map, but last decade GOP couldn't gerrymander anyway even with the governor on their side
ME: constitution requires 2/3rds majority so split control anyway
MI: constitutional commission process
MN: difference between a court map and a Dem map
NC: strict limits imposed by state supreme court
NH: split probably continues, but either side could potentially control it, on 2 CDs anyway
PA: strict limits imposed by state supreme court
TX: outside chance of blocking a GOP congressional map which easily swings 4+ CDs if it happens, but could just end up delaying a new GOP map one cycle due to state legislative mapping rules
UT: statute commission process, who becomes governor and how well the GOP does in the legislature could impact how much it gets messed with or left alone