State legislative chambers that could flip
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  State legislative chambers that could flip
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Author Topic: State legislative chambers that could flip  (Read 1250 times)
Orser67
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« on: April 22, 2020, 10:35:41 PM »
« edited: April 24, 2020, 10:38:32 PM by Orser67 »

I haven't seen any discussion on this in a while, so I wanted to started a new thread about the top legislative chamber targets for each party in 2020. I didn't find a whole lot on Google other than this Cook article, which lists D targets (tossup or lean) as:

-AZ Sen, AZ House
-FL Sen
-IA House
-MI House
-MN Senate
-NC Senate
-PA Senate, PA House
-TX House

It lists top R targets as:
-AK House (from a coalition)
-ME Senate
-MN House
-NH House, NH Senate

Agreements/disagreements? The author notes that he came close rating the North Carolina House and the Wisconsin Senate as competitive.
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ctherainbow
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« Reply #1 on: April 23, 2020, 12:33:50 AM »

PA State Senate is a STRETCH.  It would take a miracle for us to flip the Lancaster County seat we need to tie it up with Lt. Gov. Fetterman as the tiebreaker or Senator Yudichak(who recently switched Dem --> Independent) siding with the Democratic caucus.

PA House is more doable, but not all winnable seats have even been contested by Dems this cycle, so it will be a harder lift than it should have been if Dems want to flip the State House.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #2 on: April 23, 2020, 02:10:47 AM »

If you're interested there is this forecasting model which is pretty amazing.
https://www.cnalysiscom.website/forecasts/2020-state-legislative-ratings

It's runs by Chaz Nuttycombe. You can also see his work on Twitter, a lot of great maps.
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Orser67
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« Reply #3 on: April 23, 2020, 11:34:27 AM »


Yeah, I don't really know the details of each district, but I was surprised the PA House and Senate are both rated as Lean R.

With that said, if this is really a D+6-D+8 year (as some polls currently show), we could see a lot of surprises downballot.
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« Reply #4 on: April 23, 2020, 11:45:40 AM »

MN Senate needs only two seats to flip and there's two Republicans in seats Hillary carried. Not a single House Republican in a Hillary district survived 2018.

However there's also two vulnerable Democrats (one in an exurban based seat he narrowly won on personal popularity as mayor of the largest city in it and a long time Democrat on the Iowa border.) So it's important to pick up a couple others. The St. Cloud seat was closest time, that east Olmsted County one will definitely be targeted, and there's a couple other suburban ones that could trend Biden.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #5 on: April 23, 2020, 02:03:59 PM »

Florida Senate isn’t gonna happen.  Dems have just two targets (one in Miami and one in Deltona) and winning those would only get them 19 seats (they need 20 for a tie).  They really needed to win more seats in 2018.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #6 on: April 23, 2020, 04:42:04 PM »

Remove Florida Sen and add NC Sen. Maybe NV Sen should be added for the GOP, though I am not sure what seats are up - there may not be enough swing ones to flip the chamber.
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Jay 🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #7 on: April 23, 2020, 05:35:16 PM »

NC Senate isn't going to flip in 2020. There's like two plausible pickups for the Democrats in 2020, and that only gets them to 27-23. After that they'd have to flip some pretty heavy Trump seats to win a majority
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ctherainbow
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« Reply #8 on: April 23, 2020, 07:11:56 PM »

Yeah, I don't really know the details of each district, but I was surprised the PA House and Senate are both rated as Lean R.

With that said, if this is really a D+6-D+8 year (as some polls currently show), we could see a lot of surprises downballot.

It'll take more than a D+8 year to flip the PA Senate, of course not counting unknowable severely anomalous local hijinks.  The Lancaster County seat we have to flip is about an R+13 seat, and despite Governor Wolf pulling 47.5% in Lancaster County in 2018, and the blueing of the Philly burbs spreading slowly outward to the secondary collar counties, I imagine it's too early to start expecting Democrats to flip Lancaster County.

A D+6/+8 year could give Dems control of the PA House, though.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #9 on: April 24, 2020, 04:41:52 AM »

Yeah, I don't really know the details of each district, but I was surprised the PA House and Senate are both rated as Lean R.

With that said, if this is really a D+6-D+8 year (as some polls currently show), we could see a lot of surprises downballot.

It'll take more than a D+8 year to flip the PA Senate, of course not counting unknowable severely anomalous local hijinks.  The Lancaster County seat we have to flip is about an R+13 seat, and despite Governor Wolf pulling 47.5% in Lancaster County in 2018, and the blueing of the Philly burbs spreading slowly outward to the secondary collar counties, I imagine it's too early to start expecting Democrats to flip Lancaster County.

A D+6/+8 year could give Dems control of the PA House, though.

Wouldn't be so sure about that, democrats have still a lot of House districts which are very Trumpist, they will be hard to defend and at least two of them are already pretty close to being lost (the one in Schuylkill and the one in Cambria).
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #10 on: April 24, 2020, 06:34:26 AM »
« Edited: April 24, 2020, 06:49:22 AM by Mr.Phips »

NC Senate isn't going to flip in 2020. There's like two plausible pickups for the Democrats in 2020, and that only gets them to 27-23. After that they'd have to flip some pretty heavy Trump seats to win a majority

North Carolina Senate is more plausible than FL Senate.  If Dems win the 1st district and get the Lumbee district to swing back to them, they could get to 25-25.  There are a couple others (like SD-07) where Trump won by high single digits that they could plausibly take if Trump tanks in the state.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #11 on: April 24, 2020, 10:57:47 AM »

What about NC House?  The margin is narrower there. 

If the Florida Senate is nonviable, what does the Florida House look like?   

Any hope of flipping the GA house or getting it very close so they have second thoughts about gerrymandering?

There are also a couple of places with supermajorities relevant to redistricting.  Is a 60% R majority in both houses viable in North Carolina?  Is the 1 seat R supermajority in the Kansas lower house likely to be broken, which would ensure the Dem governor's veto is sustained?  R's aren't far from a 2/3rds majority in Wisconsin coming off of the 2018 Dem wave.  Are there enough seats in play that they could win veto override power on a good night?  Is the Dem supermajority in Massachusetts at risk? 
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« Reply #12 on: April 24, 2020, 11:16:00 AM »
« Edited: April 24, 2020, 11:26:27 AM by giving birth to thunder »

What about NC House?  The margin is narrower there. 

If the Florida Senate is nonviable, what does the Florida House look like?   

Any hope of flipping the GA house or getting it very close so they have second thoughts about gerrymandering?

There are also a couple of places with supermajorities relevant to redistricting.  Is a 60% R majority in both houses viable in North Carolina?  Is the 1 seat R supermajority in the Kansas lower house likely to be broken, which would ensure the Dem governor's veto is sustained?  R's aren't far from a 2/3rds majority in Wisconsin coming off of the 2018 Dem wave.  Are there enough seats in play that they could win veto override power on a good night?  Is the Dem supermajority in Massachusetts at risk? 
Most of the low hanging fruit in the Florida House already fell. Democrats need 14 seats for a split, I'm seeing the number vulnerable only in the single digits.

D targets: 26, 60, 83, 89, 93 and 120. 26 and 89 especially as those were super razor-thin R victories. After that nothing identifiable at a glance.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #13 on: April 24, 2020, 11:38:44 AM »

What about NC House?  The margin is narrower there. 

If the Florida Senate is nonviable, what does the Florida House look like?   

Any hope of flipping the GA house or getting it very close so they have second thoughts about gerrymandering?

There are also a couple of places with supermajorities relevant to redistricting.  Is a 60% R majority in both houses viable in North Carolina?  Is the 1 seat R supermajority in the Kansas lower house likely to be broken, which would ensure the Dem governor's veto is sustained?  R's aren't far from a 2/3rds majority in Wisconsin coming off of the 2018 Dem wave.  Are there enough seats in play that they could win veto override power on a good night?  Is the Dem supermajority in Massachusetts at risk? 

The NC House could happen if Trump loses the state.

Neither House in GA is happening.  Same with the Florida House.

Republicans could get to 2/3rds in the Wisconsin Senate on a good night, but almost certainly not in the Assembly.  There is only one Dem left in an Assembly district Trump won (and narrowly). 

The Massachusetts House and Senate have no chance of falling below 2/3rds Dem. 
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #14 on: April 24, 2020, 11:51:49 AM »

What about NC House?  The margin is narrower there. 

If the Florida Senate is nonviable, what does the Florida House look like?   

Any hope of flipping the GA house or getting it very close so they have second thoughts about gerrymandering?

There are also a couple of places with supermajorities relevant to redistricting.  Is a 60% R majority in both houses viable in North Carolina?  Is the 1 seat R supermajority in the Kansas lower house likely to be broken, which would ensure the Dem governor's veto is sustained?  R's aren't far from a 2/3rds majority in Wisconsin coming off of the 2018 Dem wave.  Are there enough seats in play that they could win veto override power on a good night?  Is the Dem supermajority in Massachusetts at risk? 

The NC House could happen if Trump loses the state.

Neither House in GA is happening.  Same with the Florida House.

Republicans could get to 2/3rds in the Wisconsin Senate on a good night, but almost certainly not in the Assembly.  There is only one Dem left in an Assembly district Trump won (and narrowly). 

The Massachusetts House and Senate have no chance of falling below 2/3rds Dem. 

How about Kansas?  I don't think Republicans there are organized enough to override the veto as it is, but are they favored to stay over the threshold?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #15 on: April 24, 2020, 11:58:02 AM »

NC house is still quite tough due to the bipartisan gerrymander where the GOP still almost keeps the state house but incumbent Ds were buffed up. Even with a fair map it would still be quite tough due to the massive underrepresentation of D's due to the decennial census heavily undercounting D's  in Charlotte and the Triangle while Ds would only lose about one seat from the AA area.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #16 on: April 24, 2020, 12:19:49 PM »
« Edited: April 24, 2020, 12:25:27 PM by Nyvin »

R to D -
AZ House
AZ Senate
MN Senate
TX House
IA House

D to R -
NH Senate
ME Senate

Outside chance of MI House is R to D.   That's about it.  

FL/GA/NC/PA/WI aren't happening in any realistic scenario.  

NC dems are kinda over-extended in the House already, Clinton only won 49 seats in the new map and Dems hold 55 seats and need to flip 6 more.   That's quite a challenge.

On the plus side for NC Dems,  the Republicans getting supermajorities in either chamber now is pretty much impossible.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #17 on: April 24, 2020, 01:08:46 PM »

So not a ton that matters here for redistricting purposes. 

AK: constitutional commission process
AZ: constitutional commission process
IA: statute commission process, technically open to shenanigans but no one seems to be pushing it
KS: Dems could deny veto proof GOP majority, ensuring a court map, but last decade GOP couldn't gerrymander anyway even with the governor on their side
ME: constitution requires 2/3rds majority so split control anyway
MI: constitutional commission process
MN: difference between a court map and a Dem map
NC: strict limits imposed by state supreme court
NH: split probably continues, but either side could potentially control it, on 2 CDs anyway
PA: strict limits imposed by state supreme court
TX: outside chance of blocking a GOP congressional map which easily swings 4+ CDs if it happens, but could just end up delaying a new GOP map one cycle due to state legislative mapping rules
UT: statute commission process, who becomes governor and how well the GOP does in the legislature could impact how much it gets messed with or left alone
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ctherainbow
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« Reply #18 on: April 24, 2020, 01:13:32 PM »

It'll take more than a D+8 year to flip the PA Senate, of course not counting unknowable severely anomalous local hijinks.  The Lancaster County seat we have to flip is about an R+13 seat, and despite Governor Wolf pulling 47.5% in Lancaster County in 2018, and the blueing of the Philly burbs spreading slowly outward to the secondary collar counties, I imagine it's too early to start expecting Democrats to flip Lancaster County.

A D+6/+8 year could give Dems control of the PA House, though.

Wouldn't be so sure about that, democrats have still a lot of House districts which are very Trumpist, they will be hard to defend and at least two of them are already pretty close to being lost (the one in Schuylkill and the one in Cambria).

I'm not so sure about that, hence why I wrote "could".    Tongue

We'll have to see about the Cambria seat, but the Schuylkill seat is pretty much gone, barring a miracle.  The Dem incumbent retired, and it's a solidly red seat.
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Orser67
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« Reply #19 on: May 14, 2020, 11:24:46 AM »

Sabato had a guest article on this topic last week from cnalysis. Seems like his predictions match up with a lot of the comments in this thread, e.g. PA Senate and FL Senate aren't listed as competitive (much to my chagrin).

Top D targets are:

-AZ Sen, AZ House
-IA House
-MI House
-MN Senate
-NC Senate, NC House
-PA House
-TX House

It lists top R targets as:
-AK House (from a coalition)
-NH Senate
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