State legislative chambers that could flip (user search)
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  State legislative chambers that could flip (search mode)
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Author Topic: State legislative chambers that could flip  (Read 1266 times)
Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 6,278


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« on: April 23, 2020, 02:10:47 AM »

If you're interested there is this forecasting model which is pretty amazing.
https://www.cnalysiscom.website/forecasts/2020-state-legislative-ratings

It's runs by Chaz Nuttycombe. You can also see his work on Twitter, a lot of great maps.
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Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 6,278


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« Reply #1 on: April 24, 2020, 04:41:52 AM »

Yeah, I don't really know the details of each district, but I was surprised the PA House and Senate are both rated as Lean R.

With that said, if this is really a D+6-D+8 year (as some polls currently show), we could see a lot of surprises downballot.

It'll take more than a D+8 year to flip the PA Senate, of course not counting unknowable severely anomalous local hijinks.  The Lancaster County seat we have to flip is about an R+13 seat, and despite Governor Wolf pulling 47.5% in Lancaster County in 2018, and the blueing of the Philly burbs spreading slowly outward to the secondary collar counties, I imagine it's too early to start expecting Democrats to flip Lancaster County.

A D+6/+8 year could give Dems control of the PA House, though.

Wouldn't be so sure about that, democrats have still a lot of House districts which are very Trumpist, they will be hard to defend and at least two of them are already pretty close to being lost (the one in Schuylkill and the one in Cambria).
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