State legislative chambers that could flip

[Mr.Phips]

Florida Senate isn’t gonna happen.  Dems have just two targets (one in Miami and one in Deltona) and winning those would only get them 19 seats (they need 20 for a tie).  They really needed to win more seats in 2018.

[Mr.Phips]

NC Senate isn't going to flip in 2020. There's like two plausible pickups for the Democrats in 2020, and that only gets them to 27-23. After that they'd have to flip some pretty heavy Trump seats to win a majority

North Carolina Senate is more plausible than FL Senate.  If Dems win the 1st district and get the Lumbee district to swing back to them, they could get to 25-25.  There are a couple others (like SD-07) where Trump won by high single digits that they could plausibly take if Trump tanks in the state.

[Mr.Phips]

What about NC House?  The margin is narrower there. 

If the Florida Senate is nonviable, what does the Florida House look like?   

Any hope of flipping the GA house or getting it very close so they have second thoughts about gerrymandering?

There are also a couple of places with supermajorities relevant to redistricting.  Is a 60% R majority in both houses viable in North Carolina?  Is the 1 seat R supermajority in the Kansas lower house likely to be broken, which would ensure the Dem governor's veto is sustained?  R's aren't far from a 2/3rds majority in Wisconsin coming off of the 2018 Dem wave.  Are there enough seats in play that they could win veto override power on a good night?  Is the Dem supermajority in Massachusetts at risk? 

The NC House could happen if Trump loses the state.

Neither House in GA is happening.  Same with the Florida House.

Republicans could get to 2/3rds in the Wisconsin Senate on a good night, but almost certainly not in the Assembly.  There is only one Dem left in an Assembly district Trump won (and narrowly). 

The Massachusetts House and Senate have no chance of falling below 2/3rds Dem.