State legislative chambers that could flip (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 27, 2024, 12:25:28 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  State legislative chambers that could flip (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: State legislative chambers that could flip  (Read 1252 times)
I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,043
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« on: April 23, 2020, 11:45:40 AM »

MN Senate needs only two seats to flip and there's two Republicans in seats Hillary carried. Not a single House Republican in a Hillary district survived 2018.

However there's also two vulnerable Democrats (one in an exurban based seat he narrowly won on personal popularity as mayor of the largest city in it and a long time Democrat on the Iowa border.) So it's important to pick up a couple others. The St. Cloud seat was closest time, that east Olmsted County one will definitely be targeted, and there's a couple other suburban ones that could trend Biden.
Logged
I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,043
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #1 on: April 24, 2020, 11:16:00 AM »
« Edited: April 24, 2020, 11:26:27 AM by giving birth to thunder »

What about NC House?  The margin is narrower there. 

If the Florida Senate is nonviable, what does the Florida House look like?   

Any hope of flipping the GA house or getting it very close so they have second thoughts about gerrymandering?

There are also a couple of places with supermajorities relevant to redistricting.  Is a 60% R majority in both houses viable in North Carolina?  Is the 1 seat R supermajority in the Kansas lower house likely to be broken, which would ensure the Dem governor's veto is sustained?  R's aren't far from a 2/3rds majority in Wisconsin coming off of the 2018 Dem wave.  Are there enough seats in play that they could win veto override power on a good night?  Is the Dem supermajority in Massachusetts at risk? 
Most of the low hanging fruit in the Florida House already fell. Democrats need 14 seats for a split, I'm seeing the number vulnerable only in the single digits.

D targets: 26, 60, 83, 89, 93 and 120. 26 and 89 especially as those were super razor-thin R victories. After that nothing identifiable at a glance.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.024 seconds with 12 queries.