wbrocks67
Atlas Star
Posts: 22,245
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« on: April 22, 2020, 03:50:38 PM » |
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Comparing these results with 2018 and 2016 exits is interesting. Biden is doing about Gillum #s with Indies, and much better than Clinton. Biden is also already doing better than HRC among young people, and that's with a good chunk of undecideds who, assumably, would lean Biden. This poll seems to underestimate Biden's strength with 30-45, while he does way better with Seniors, while basically on par with 2018 in 50-64.
Biden also does way better among Whites than HRC or Gillum, while he does worse among Blacks and Hispanics (just a tad in the latter), but that's also once again with high undecideds - and Black undecided voters will almost definitely lean Biden, while Hispanics I would expect as well.
Independents
2020: Biden 44, Trump 37 (D +7)
2018: Gillum 54, DeSantis 44 (D +10)
2016: Clinton 43, Trump 47 (R +4)
18-34
2020: Biden 50, Trump 31 (D +19)
2018: Gillum 61, DeSantis 37 (D +24)
2016: Clinton 54, Trump 36 (D +18)
35-49
2020: Biden 40, Trump 44 (R +4)
2018: Gillum 62, DeSantis 35 (D +27)
2016: Clinton 54, Trump 39 (D +15)
50-64
2020: Biden 43, Trump 48 (R +5)
2018: Gillum 46, DeSantis 52 (R +6)
2016: Clinton 43, Trump 56 (R +13)
65+
2020: Biden 52, Trump 42 (D +10)
2018: Gillum 43, DeSantis 56 (R +13)
2016: Clinton 40, Trump 57 (R +17)
White
2020: Biden 40, Trump 52 (R +12)
2018: Gillum 39, DeSantis 60 (R +21)
2016: Clinton 32, Trump 64 (R +32)
Black
2020: Biden 73, Trump 8 (D +65)
2018: Gillum 86, DeSantis 14 (D +72)
2016: Clinton 84, Trump 8 (D +76)
Hispanic
2020: Biden 46, Trump 38 (D +8)
2018: Gillum 54, DeSantis 44 (D +10)
2016: Clinton 62, Trump 35 (D +27)
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