FL-Quinnipiac: Biden +4

[Bidenworth2020]

Just saying, but the previous Quinnipiac poll had Trump down by -9 in Florida. So this poll is a clear improvement for Trump

Last year, lol

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

LOL. Quinnipiac was awful in FL in 2018. Lean Trump, 52-47.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Q underestimated DeSantis and Scott by up to 12 points!

[wbrocks67]

LOL. Quinnipiac was awful in FL in 2018. Lean Trump, 52-47.

There's no reason to believe Trump will win by over double his 2016 margin

[Progressive Pessimist]

I don't trust Quinnipiac in this state. This poll basically translates into a meager Trump lead.

[Holmes]

I’m not gonna comment on the poll itself, rather a lot of posters just outright saying “no this poll is incorrect because I said so” is funny. Very Atlas though.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

For the love of God, DeSantis has a +9 approval rating on Coronavirus.

[Frenchrepublican]

Just saying, but the previous Quinnipiac poll had Trump down by -9 in Florida. So this poll is a clear improvement for Trump

Last year, lol

Biden was never going to win FL by 9, it is true now and it was true last year. It just shows that Quinnipiac polls are crappy (especially FL ones).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

so Quinnipiac has a pro-D house effect?

[Frenchrepublican]

so Quinnipiac has a pro-D house effect?

Over the past few years it has been the case, yeah

[Sir Mohamed]

so Quinnipiac has a pro-D house effect?

Seems to be in recent cycles when you compare their findings with election results. Biden +4 is overconfident in FL, but if Biden ends up winning by around 2, the poll would be relatively accurate. With that being said, both #s are too far from 50% to make a meaningful conclusion. If anything, it proves, along with other polls, that FL is not Lean R, it's a pure tossup.

Btw, I'm not buying Biden is up with older voters by 10. Or he's up at all. They will likely swing D as a result of the pandemic, but not by this much.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What imparts on a pollster a pro-D or pro-R house effect? The samples they use?

[wbrocks67]

Q-pac does not have a D house effect.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Q-pac does not have a D house effect.

They've clearly picked up a D lean of a couple points in the last few years.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What imparts on a pollster a pro-D or pro-R house effect? The samples they use?

Sampling techniques can be one factor.  Another is the weighting that they use.  No sample is going to be truly representative of the general population in terms of age, race, gender, income, education, etc...  So the pollster has to weight their results for what they believe the actual electorate will look like in the current election.  Each pollster's weighting is their "secret sauce" and will greatly affect how predictive their results are.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What imparts on a pollster a pro-D or pro-R house effect? The samples they use?

Sampling techniques can be one factor.  Another is the weighting that they use.  No sample is going to be truly representative of the general population in terms of age, race, gender, income, education, etc...  So the pollster has to weight their results for what they believe the actual electorate will look like in the current election.  Each pollster's weighting is their "secret sauce" and will greatly affect how predictive their results are.

That makes sense, and correlates with some knowledge I've picked up over the years.
For instance - the reason some polls were off in 2016 was because they didn't weigh for educational status, which proved to be one of the big fault lines for the election.

[Badger]

I have a hard time buying that Biden's "strength" with senior voters will hold up in the end.

Sad, but probably true.

Hopefully it will stay strong enough that his buffer according to this poll, combined with a likely shift of younger voters closer to the election, would be enough to put them over the top here.

[Progressive Pessimist]

For the love of God, DeSantis has a +9 approval rating on Coronavirus.

Every Governor in the country seems to be above water on it to be fair...for whatever reason. Measuring it on a curve though in comparison to someone like Cuomo, it actually isn't that great for DeSuckass.