MD-GOV 2022: Can Maryland GOP win a third gubernatorial term in 2022?

[Roll Roons]

https://thehill.com/homenews/536780-michael-steele-may-run-for-governor-of-maryland

Michael Steele considering a run as a Republican. If he somehow gets through the primary, he would be a very interesting candidate.

[Roll Roons]

Hogan's great, but this is an almost certain flip for 2022. Though it's possible that the Maryland GOP finds a way to win the governorship in the future.

[Roll Roons]

It's Lean D for now but I wouldn't put it entirely past the GOP to pull another hat trick.

This race is the safest Governor's race in the country for the Democratic Party. No realistic combination of candidates could result in the Republican candidate being competitive. Maryland was already one of the bluest state's in the country, but then stampeded further Left partially due to demographic change. It has the accelerating demographic change of Georgia and Virginia but that's less noticeable because the state was already so blue.

When it comes to electing "moderate" Republican governors, Maryland is not Massachusetts or Vermont or even New Jersey. Larry Hogie is only the second Republican to win two terms in the history of the state. Of the 40 times the gubernatorial elections have been since the end of the Civil War, Republicans have won the state just seven times. This isn't chest-beating - Hogan will be the last Republican governor for a very long time. Maryland went 35 years between electing Agnew and Angry Bob, and Agnew only won because he broke 70% in MoCo against a segregationist.

Well, Hawaii is probably safer. But yeah, I would be very shocked if Republicans manage to hold the Maryland governorship. Even by the standards of suburbs everywhere, DC's are an exceptionally bad fit for the current GOP.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/jacobrubashkin/status/1462907552736366595?s=21

If the gets the nod the governorship will flip. I cannot see him winning a statewide election Maryland. He might even drag down candidates down ballot.

Are there any competitive races downballot? I feel like most races tend to be either safe D or safe R in Maryland.

Maybe a handful of legislative/county races. But yeah, all the congressional races (including Senate) will be safe and there's no doubt that Democrats will continue to control both chambers of the legislature, as they've done for over a century.

It's honestly kind of amazing that Maryland's consistently been a Democratic stronghold through so many different alignments, even as the internal coalitions have shifted.

[Roll Roons]

Disgusting. So the Maryland and Massachusetts GOPs will basically become as relevant as the Hawaii GOP or the Wyoming Democrats. Nice going, Donald, you c**t.

[Roll Roons]

I wonder if we are going to get a poll of this election anytime soon. We had multiple in 2018.

2018 was an actual competitive race with a normal human being, as opposed to a lizard, running as the GOP nominee.

2018 wasn't competitive. Hogan was never in danger of losing.