MD-GOV 2022: Can Maryland GOP win a third gubernatorial term in 2022?

[Duke of York]

with Rutherford out the only serious candidate Republicans have is Steele and Im not sure if even he could win.

[Duke of York]

If Steele runs he would be the strongest candidate Republicans can put up but I have a difficult time seeing him getting the nomination.

Democrats are still favored to flip the Governorship.

[Duke of York]

Steele said he will make a final Determination, I can see Steele winning

He'd have the the best chance but its hard to see him getting the nomination.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/jacobrubashkin/status/1462907552736366595?s=21

If the gets the nod the governorship will flip. I cannot see him winning a statewide election Maryland. He might even drag down candidates down ballot.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/jacobrubashkin/status/1462907552736366595?s=21

If the gets the nod the governorship will flip. I cannot see him winning a statewide election Maryland. He might even drag down candidates down ballot.

Are there any competitive races downballot? I feel like most races tend to be either safe D or safe R in Maryland.

Maybe a handful of legislative/county races. But yeah, all the congressional races (including Senate) will be safe and there's no doubt that Democrats will continue to control both chambers of the legislature, as they've done for over a century.

It's honestly kind of amazing that Maryland's consistently been a Democratic stronghold through so many different alignments, even as the internal coalitions have shifted.

It really is. Democrats have held the House of Delegates for all but two years since 1900 and the state senate continuously since.

[Duke of York]

I'm not sure what it means but I saw a Franchot sign in Fairfax County.

It means nothing. Lawn signs don't vote.

[Duke of York]

https://www.marylandmatters.org/2022/06/10/rushern-baker-suspends-gubernatorial-campaign-will-likely-endorse-a-democratic-rival-soon/

Rushern Baker Suspends Gubernatorial Campaign, Will Likely Endorse a Democratic Rival Soon

[Duke of York]

The reason why Franchot will win he picked Monique Anderson-Walker whom is a Blk Female as LT Gov that's why Franchot is favored

hard to say anyone is favored when there is still so many undecideds.

[Duke of York]

PEREZ has the momentum

I dont believe in the concept of momentum for a candidate, There are still many undecideds here. I would not could Moore winning.

[Duke of York]

moore is gonna kick ass as governor

i stand by this

There are 180,000 absentee ballots to be count. Anything could still happen.

[Duke of York]

moore is gonna kick ass as governor

i stand by this

There are 180,000 absentee ballots to be count. Anything could still happen.

Have you seen the counties Moore won compared to FRANCHOT and Prez Moore have won the  populated counties, this race is over and FRANCHOT got all the white dominated counties

You are therefore confident Moore will win? it could be several days though.

[Duke of York]

D's can vote for either candidate in the primary just like in IL D's voted for Bailey the case was made for D's to vote for Cox in the R primary

Alot of D's didn't vote in the IL D primary because Pritzker is gonna win anyways but Sullivan whom should of ran against DUCKWORTH could of won

Incorrect. Maryland has closed primaries.

[Duke of York]

Wes Moore, Barnes and WARNOCK will win 51/49 don't be shocked when there are 300K statewide Provisional ballots and D's win 65(35 and Military ballots come in 65/35R because of females not Male military combined to give D's 50K vote wins in AZ, NV, PA, WI, GA and MI, the provision ballots I was EDay JUDGE BEFORE the Pandemic put D's over top, Trump won by 50K in 2016 because of Gary Johnson

That's why Trump keep saying EDay was stolen Bush W and Cheney signed Provisions ballot before 2004 that's, Kerry closed a 300k vote lead to 150K but obviously it wasn't enough but today it's VBM and provisions ballots give D the edge😊😊😊

Liz Cheney is defending D because her father signed Provisions ballot before 2004 EDay

There is no way Cox gets 49 percent of the vote in Maryland.

[Duke of York]

I am so happy Moore won

He hasn’t won yet.

[Duke of York]

I think it should be noted that some outlets still haven't projected Moore as the winner and Perez insists on not conceding until more votes are counted, which I guess is fair, but I still doubt it will matter. 

Congratulations to Wes Moore on winning this one and this is not a criticism of him as he did not come up with the rules for the election but it seems a bit ridiculous that 66% of voters chose someone else but he gets the nomination because he got 30,000 more votes.  I'm not the biggest fan of runoffs but in a situation like this, I get it.

I totally get where you're coming from, but in fairness to Moore it's not his fault there were so many candidates in this race. Hell, Baker, who withdrew, came in fourth place. Actually, I'm wondering if Baker dropping out is really what helped Moore come out ahead. Moore's margin in Prince George's probably would have been weaker had he stayed in and Franchot or Perez would possibly have benefited from that.

I get why some outlets are being cautious but given how much ground Perez has to make up and the margin he has to win mail in ballots to overtake Moore the odds are simply not in his favor. Plus there are many ballots left to count in Baltimore City, Baltimore County and Prince George's County were Moore has been doing well.

[Duke of York]

https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-entertainment-donald-trump-larry-hogan-cdacc45d4f3cc6f65d14357d0ae86c64

AP has called it for Moore.

[Duke of York]

https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-entertainment-donald-trump-larry-hogan-cdacc45d4f3cc6f65d14357d0ae86c64

AP has called it for Moore.

Gov. Moore incoming? He'd be the only black gov in 2023? Unless some of the black lt. govs like Gilchrist or Stratton unexpectedly ascend to the top job.

He is the heavy favorite to win and probably will be the only black governor in the nation and only the third in US history.

[Duke of York]

The real question is do Dems hold their state legislative supermajorities.

Also, I think a Dem trifecta MD would be a prime target to join Cali and NY in the GOPs punching bag. MD frankly has a lot of problems, its association with DC is meaningful, and also you have a lot of white liberals and a lot of black communities that aren’t doing so well, which the GOP loves to pit against each other (yes ik Ann Arundel County exists)

It seems highly plausible given how extreme Cox is. I wouldn't be surprised if Republicans lose seats in both chambers.

[Duke of York]

How much do people think Moore will win by? I heard he's talking Cox seriously and intends to campaign like he has a serious chance.

I think Moore ends up with about 60-65 percent of the vote.

[Duke of York]

How much do people think Moore will win by? I heard he's talking Cox seriously and intends to campaign like he has a serious chance.

I think Moore ends up with about 60-65 percent of the vote.

20 points as his absolute bedrock.

You think Cox hits 40? I doubt it.

[Duke of York]

There no way that Maryland votes for the GOP again. Wes Moore is going to run it up in Baltimore city.

Not just there but the DC and Baltimore suburbs, rapidly trending blue Anne Arundel County and Frederick County. he probably wins every county Biden did.

wouldn't be shocked if he added Wicomico  and Calvert.

[Duke of York]

There no way that Maryland votes for the GOP again. Wes Moore is going to run it up in Baltimore city.

Not just there but the DC and Baltimore suburbs, rapidly trending blue Anne Arundel County and Frederick County. he probably wins every county Biden did.

wouldn't be shocked if he added Wicomico and Calvert.

AACo and Frederick should be in the bag for him; Kent and Talbot are much more dependent on relative turnout of their contrasting geographic/demographic bases (Chestertown vs Most Everything Else, Easton/St. Michaels vs Most Everything Else, the extent to which retirees will still be enamored with Hogan romanticism or pissed at Biden). Calvert and Wicomico aren't diversifying fast enough to flip and are still a bit too classically "Southern" in profile at the moment for folks to be Very Concerned about a pro-Trump GOP nominee; note that Most Hated Man In Maryland Andy Harris still lost Wicomico in 2018 while facing a much closer race in MD-01 than usual.

a reasonable assessment. Kent will likely be very close.

[Duke of York]

Cook moves this race to Solid D and they won't budge on OH and Sabato still has WI Lean R LOL, there hasn't been a single GE ooll

It's Lean D but I think it's gonna be close 52)47

I don't think Cox is going to break 40 percent. No way he replicates anything close to Hogan's numbers.

[Duke of York]

Primary turnout update

D: 632K (69%)
R: 287K (31%)
= 919K total

Moore should win the election easily if he doesn't take the victory for granted.

[Duke of York]

Primary turnout update

D: 632K (69%)
R: 287K (31%)
= 919K total

Moore should win the election easily if he doesn't take the victory for granted.

He can take it for granted and still easily win. Republicans destroyed any chance they might have had by nominating Cox.

He shouldn't. No election should be taken for granted.