MD-GOV 2022: Can Maryland GOP win a third gubernatorial term in 2022?

[Suburbia]

I think so. Rutherford or Steele can be the first black governor.

[Suburbia]

No. Franchot is running, and assuming he wins the primary, he will probably do better than the average federal democrat, even against Rutherford. He very likely would have beaten Hogan in 2018 had he run (and I would have voted for him).

Franchot is too conservative Democrat for the MD Democrats?

[Suburbia]

Christian Miele can win too

[Suburbia]

Franchot being the Democratic nominee would be a bridge way to far for the GOP to hold it for a third term.

Though Hogan could probably win a third if he was allowed to run again.

Just demographically and ideologically there is almost no path forward for the Maryland GOP. Kind of reminds me of Brad Henry winning re-election in 2006 and we all saw what happened afterwards.

So Hogan, Henry and both Beshears are political analomies?

[Suburbia]

Barry Glassman or Boyd Rutherford can beat the MD Democrats.

[Suburbia]

Barry Glassman or Boyd Rutherford can beat the MD Democrats.

No one knows who either of them are here.

Franchot will win in a landslide

They can appeal to Hogan Democrats. Hogan Democrats didn't like O'Malley, Brown or Jealous. They don't like tax hikes.

[Suburbia]

If I lived in MD, I'd vote for Steele. He would be good.

Can Steele get through the MDGOP's rightwing?

Can he get through JB Jennings, Pat McDonough, etc.?

I think Franchot wins, but in 2030, a Republican probably wins again

[Suburbia]

https://twitter.com/boydkrutherford/status/1382296667299397636?s=21

It's done. Maryland is safe D and won't have another republican governor for a long long time.

In 2030, after Franchot's second term

Barry Glassman will be the next MDGOP governor

[Suburbia]

With Rutherford not running, no way

This.

Likely D.

MDGOP should look at 2026 or 2030

[Suburbia]

No, pretty much. Michael Steele is a joke and I hope he loses the primary.

How is Steele a joke, the first Black RNC chair who helped the GOP win control of the House and created the wave year of 2010?

How is that a joke? He made MD-SEN 2006 competitive in a Democratic wave year, what do you mean he is a joke?

Steele and Glassman are the only ones who would make this race engaging, despite Franchot being the heir apparent.

[Suburbia]

No, pretty much. Michael Steele is a joke and I hope he loses the primary.

How is Steele a joke, the first Black RNC chair who helped the GOP win control of the House and created the wave year of 2010?

How is that a joke? He made MD-SEN 2006 competitive in a Democratic wave year, what do you mean he is a joke?

Steele and Glassman are the only ones who would make this race engaging, despite Franchot being the heir apparent.

I mean Steele has the potential to be a decent strong candidate but he endorsed Biden this year and with how the GOP has been lately I just don't see how he wins the primary and even if he narrowly does do you really think the Trumpists will come out in full force for him? Tbh even with Rutherford or Steele I wouldn't put this at anything more competitive than Likely D  unless the Democrat had some huge scandal and the national environment was like R+8 or something.

That is true....but isn't the MDGOP different than the VAGOP or the NCGOP? Larry Hogan is anti-Trump and he fits the bill...

[Suburbia]

No, pretty much. Michael Steele is a joke and I hope he loses the primary.

How is Steele a joke, the first Black RNC chair who helped the GOP win control of the House and created the wave year of 2010?

How is that a joke? He made MD-SEN 2006 competitive in a Democratic wave year, what do you mean he is a joke?

Steele and Glassman are the only ones who would make this race engaging, despite Franchot being the heir apparent.

I mean Steele has the potential to be a decent strong candidate but he endorsed Biden this year and with how the GOP has been lately I just don't see how he wins the primary and even if he narrowly does do you really think the Trumpists will come out in full force for him? Tbh even with Rutherford or Steele I wouldn't put this at anything more competitive than Likely D  unless the Democrat had some huge scandal and the national environment was like R+8 or something.

That is true....but isn't the MDGOP different than the VAGOP or the NCGOP? Larry Hogan is anti-Trump and he fits the bill...

Hogan is the exception not the rule. He comes from a political dynasty. Not to mention he won his primary pre Trump. In 2018, he won renomination just because he was so popular.

I can accept the argument that perhaps the MD GOP is slightly more moderate than the national GOP, however it's no MA or VT GOP by any stretch of the imagination.

Steele cannot win the primary. He is just too anti-Trump

Steele could run as an Independent as well.......

[Suburbia]

Ds will win by 20+ if not 25+. 

Deal with it, Bronz.

Does Franchot or whoever the MDDP nominee is win Baltimore County? Balt. County is a bellwether in politics.......

[Suburbia]

Outgoing Republican Gov. Larry Hogan will leave office in 2023, and his political career will probably end there as well as he plans to mount a longshot bid for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination as a moderate Northeastern Republican who won in a blue state (like Christie and Giuliani).....

This 2022 Maryland governor's race is seen as Safe D, as Lt. Gov. Boyd Rutherford, the best Republican to hold on this seat declined to run.

Maryland controller Peter Franchot is the favorite to win the Democratic nomination and win the governorship for the Democrats for the first time since 2010....

[Suburbia]

Steny Hoyer should resign from the House and run for Gov

If he wants to have an actual purpose in his life, yes. Other than that, he and Pelosi are not friendly, both of them are old school Democratic politicians from Maryland....

[Suburbia]

It's Lean D for now but I wouldn't put it entirely past the GOP to pull another hat trick.

This race is the safest Governor's race in the country for the Democratic Party. No realistic combination of candidates could result in the Republican candidate being competitive. Maryland was already one of the bluest state's in the country, but then stampeded further Left partially due to demographic change. It has the accelerating demographic change of Georgia and Virginia but that's less noticeable because the state was already so blue.

When it comes to electing "moderate" Republican governors, Maryland is not Massachusetts or Vermont or even New Jersey. Larry Hogie is only the second Republican to win two terms in the history of the state. Of the 40 times the gubernatorial elections have been since the end of the Civil War, Republicans have won the state just seven times. This isn't chest-beating - Hogan will be the last Republican governor for a very long time. Maryland went 35 years between electing Agnew and Angry Bob, and Agnew only won because he broke 70% in MoCo against a segregationist.

A MDGOP can win in 2030 or 2036 if MD taxes are through the roof---and they want checks and balances......

[Suburbia]

MDGOP has a chance at winning and keeping this seat compared to the ILGOP.........

[Suburbia]

MDGOP has a chance at winning and keeping this seat compared to the ILGOP.........

There's a much better chance that the ILGOP wins their race than the MDGOP. There is almost no chance that Pritzker loses, however there is no chance the GOP holds this seat.

If a corruption scandal emerges, he could lose, or if the Illinois economy spirals.....but that ILGOPer has to be a damn good candidate 

[Suburbia]

Steele is the only candidate with a real chance in the general, but there is absolutely no way he would win the nomination. MD Republicans are way to Trumpy to let him get the nom.

If the MDGOP is Trumpy how did Larry Hogan get the nomination in 2014? How come he was not primaried in 2018 like how Charlie Baker got challenged by Scott Lively and got attacked by Jim Lyons and other far right MAGOP people?

[Suburbia]

Likely/Safe D, but Dems should not get cocky. It is a Biden midterm, after all.

[Suburbia]

Schulz is a Becky in waiting.

Likely/Safe D.

MD Republicans can try in 2026 or 2030

[Suburbia]

Schulz is a Becky in waiting.

Likely/Safe D.

MD Republicans can try in 2026 or 2030

I dont think Schulz will be the gop nominee

Who will be the nominee?