MD-GOV 2022: Can Maryland GOP win a third gubernatorial term in 2022?

[Chips]

It's Lean D for now but I wouldn't put it entirely past the GOP to pull another hat trick.

[slothdem]

It's Lean D for now but I wouldn't put it entirely past the GOP to pull another hat trick.

This race is the safest Governor's race in the country for the Democratic Party. No realistic combination of candidates could result in the Republican candidate being competitive. Maryland was already one of the bluest state's in the country, but then stampeded further Left partially due to demographic change. It has the accelerating demographic change of Georgia and Virginia but that's less noticeable because the state was already so blue.

When it comes to electing "moderate" Republican governors, Maryland is not Massachusetts or Vermont or even New Jersey. Larry Hogie is only the second Republican to win two terms in the history of the state. Of the 40 times the gubernatorial elections have been since the end of the Civil War, Republicans have won the state just seven times. This isn't chest-beating - Hogan will be the last Republican governor for a very long time. Maryland went 35 years between electing Agnew and Angry Bob, and Agnew only won because he broke 70% in MoCo against a segregationist.

[Spectator]

It's Lean D for now but I wouldn't put it entirely past the GOP to pull another hat trick.

This race is Safe Dem, and anyone saying otherwise is kidding themselves. If Democrats can’t win this, they’re losing everything that can be conceivably competitive first.

[Roll Roons]

It's Lean D for now but I wouldn't put it entirely past the GOP to pull another hat trick.

This race is the safest Governor's race in the country for the Democratic Party. No realistic combination of candidates could result in the Republican candidate being competitive. Maryland was already one of the bluest state's in the country, but then stampeded further Left partially due to demographic change. It has the accelerating demographic change of Georgia and Virginia but that's less noticeable because the state was already so blue.

When it comes to electing "moderate" Republican governors, Maryland is not Massachusetts or Vermont or even New Jersey. Larry Hogie is only the second Republican to win two terms in the history of the state. Of the 40 times the gubernatorial elections have been since the end of the Civil War, Republicans have won the state just seven times. This isn't chest-beating - Hogan will be the last Republican governor for a very long time. Maryland went 35 years between electing Agnew and Angry Bob, and Agnew only won because he broke 70% in MoCo against a segregationist.

Well, Hawaii is probably safer. But yeah, I would be very shocked if Republicans manage to hold the Maryland governorship. Even by the standards of suburbs everywhere, DC's are an exceptionally bad fit for the current GOP.

[Suburbia]

It's Lean D for now but I wouldn't put it entirely past the GOP to pull another hat trick.

This race is the safest Governor's race in the country for the Democratic Party. No realistic combination of candidates could result in the Republican candidate being competitive. Maryland was already one of the bluest state's in the country, but then stampeded further Left partially due to demographic change. It has the accelerating demographic change of Georgia and Virginia but that's less noticeable because the state was already so blue.

When it comes to electing "moderate" Republican governors, Maryland is not Massachusetts or Vermont or even New Jersey. Larry Hogie is only the second Republican to win two terms in the history of the state. Of the 40 times the gubernatorial elections have been since the end of the Civil War, Republicans have won the state just seven times. This isn't chest-beating - Hogan will be the last Republican governor for a very long time. Maryland went 35 years between electing Agnew and Angry Bob, and Agnew only won because he broke 70% in MoCo against a segregationist.

A MDGOP can win in 2030 or 2036 if MD taxes are through the roof---and they want checks and balances......

[SnowLabrador]

Between Lean and Likely D. The GOP can hold the governorship, but it would take a lot of luck.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/douggansler/status/1397141763035475971?s=21

[PragmaticPopulist]

https://twitter.com/douggansler/status/1397141763035475971?s=21

0
Expected. The ad seems decent, but we'll have to see if he's gotten any better at campaigning since 2014.

[NewYorkExpress]

Gansler's probably the one Democrat in Maryland who could allow Republicans to hold the Governor's mansion.

[Lognog]

Gansler's probably the one Democrat in Maryland who could allow Republicans to hold the Governor's mansion.

Why is that?

Also, good thing he doesn't have a chance of winning

[NewYorkExpress]

Gansler's probably the one Democrat in Maryland who could allow Republicans to hold the Governor's mansion.

Why is that?

Also, good thing he doesn't have a chance of winning

Gansler literally was at a house party with his son in Delaware in 2013 where there was underage drinking going on.

He was the Attorney General of Maryland at the time.

You can kind of see the hypocrisy there, if you care to look.

[MT Treasurer]

This race is definitely not as safe for Democrats as NY, CA, or HI. Doesn’t mean the GOP will hold it (they won’t), but there’s definitely even less winnable states for them than MD at the state and federal level. Someone like Cuomo would probably win reelection no matter what he did in office or how unpopular the D legislature was in his state, honestly. Can’t say the same about MD.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Former Robin Hood Foundation CEO (no relation to the Robinhood investment app) Wes Moore is in.

https://twitter.com/iamwesmoore/status/1401977261029531656?s=20

Seems like a pretty strong opening ad.

[beesley]

Seems to be a good guy. Would be surprised if he could stop Franchot though.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I met Tom Perez himself yesterday, and he said he's going to be entering the race next week.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/zachmontellaro/status/1407491692035461121?s=21

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/zachmontellaro/status/1407491692035461121?s=21

I hope this goober gets clowned hard.

[Tartarus Sauce]

As somebody who has actually sat through Tom Perez speeches before while waiting for others to take the podium, I can confirm that he is an absolute bore and possess all the charism of a wet noodle. One of the least engaging speakers you can ever get trapped in a room with, except its worse because he thinks he has pizazz and heft.

[THG]

No.

[Meatball Ron]

It's funny that Perez's opening ad focuses in depth on each of the different jobs he's had, but omits the most recent one - DNC Chair.

Not necessarily surprising, though. Even though he did a "good job" by objective metrics (entered the position with a GOP trifecta and exited it with a Dem trifecta), it seemed like he was always very controversial in the role. The Iowa caucus debacle wasn't great for his perception.

In any case I have no idea how he'll perform in this primary. Assume Franchot is still the frontrunner but with such a splintered field and no RCV / runoff, who knows what'll happen.

[Blair]

People forget just how highly rated Perez was in the past- he was one of the more progressive members of Obama's Cabinet & got far enough to be vetted by Clinton for VP- and was then basically begged to run for DNC chair to stop Ellison.

[Lognog]

is Rush Baker III going to jump in?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/TomPerez/status/1407695490334920706?s=20

Perez's announcement for those wondering.

[Schiff for Senate]

No. Maryland is a blue state, pure and simple, and while Hogan was an exception to that rule, I don't believe they will continue this trend of electing red governors, not unless the Democratic nominee is someone very weak. It's like saying that in 2010 the Tennessee governership should stay with the Democrats because Phil Bredesen, the incumbent, is a Democrat.

[CookieDamage]

This race is definitely not as safe for Democrats as NY, CA, or HI. Doesn’t mean the GOP will hold it (they won’t), but there’s definitely even less winnable states for them than MD at the state and federal level. Someone like Cuomo would probably win reelection no matter what he did in office or how unpopular the D legislature was in his state, honestly. Can’t say the same about MD.

It's still a safe D pickup.