MD-GOV 2022: Can Maryland GOP win a third gubernatorial term in 2022?

[pikachu]

The real question is do Dems hold their state legislative supermajorities.

Also, I think a Dem trifecta MD would be a prime target to join Cali and NY in the GOPs punching bag. MD frankly has a lot of problems, its association with DC is meaningful, and also you have a lot of white liberals and a lot of black communities that aren’t doing so well, which the GOP loves to pit against each other (yes ik Ann Arundel County exists)

Don’t think there are enough elite conservatives living in MD as there are in CA and NY. Seems like DMV conservatives tend to live in Virginia/DC more.

[Duke of York]

How much do people think Moore will win by? I heard he's talking Cox seriously and intends to campaign like he has a serious chance.

I think Moore ends up with about 60-65 percent of the vote.

[Progressive Pessimist]

How much do people think Moore will win by? I heard he's talking Cox seriously and intends to campaign like he has a serious chance.

I think Moore ends up with about 60-65 percent of the vote.

20 points as his absolute bedrock.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The real question is do Dems hold their state legislative supermajorities.

Also, I think a Dem trifecta MD would be a prime target to join Cali and NY in the GOPs punching bag. MD frankly has a lot of problems, its association with DC is meaningful, and also you have a lot of white liberals and a lot of black communities that aren’t doing so well, which the GOP loves to pit against each other (yes ik Ann Arundel County exists)

Don’t think there are enough elite conservatives living in MD as there are in CA and NY. Seems like DMV conservatives tend to live in Virginia/DC more.

A lot of conservatives attached in some way to Washington live in Maryland, plus you have the whole Panhandle and exurbs of Baltimore

[Duke of York]

How much do people think Moore will win by? I heard he's talking Cox seriously and intends to campaign like he has a serious chance.

I think Moore ends up with about 60-65 percent of the vote.

20 points as his absolute bedrock.

You think Cox hits 40? I doubt it.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Moore embodies a lot that I can't stand about liquid modernity, Maryland politics, and the way that broader society engages with deprived communities, but he was ultimately the lesser evil against the entrenched corrupt conservadem and the Beltway-brained union-buster. I'll most likely vote third-party in the general (Green or Working Class) since he clearly won't have any trouble dispatching the face of the MDGOP's rejection of Maoist Fat Larry (bulldozing the City of Baltimore is the floor, building a Naypyidaw-tier highway in Garrett County is the compromise, just cancelling the Red Line is a humiliation).

[Meatball Ron]

Moore embodies a lot that I can't stand about liquid modernity, Maryland politics, and the way that broader society engages with deprived communities, but he was ultimately the lesser evil against the entrenched corrupt conservadem and the Beltway-brained union-buster.

Lmao. None of this means anything. Just straight up gibberish.

[wesmoorenerd]

Moore embodies a lot that I can't stand about liquid modernity, Maryland politics, and the way that broader society engages with deprived communities, but he was ultimately the lesser evil against the entrenched corrupt conservadem and the Beltway-brained union-buster.

Lmao. None of this means anything. Just straight up gibberish.

sorry bub it's a maryland thing

[wbrocks67]

Results not official yet, but right now partisan turnout in the GOV primary is 68% D, 32% R.

One of the few states this cycle that seems like an actual sensical comparison since it's one of the only truly competitive races on both R/D sides.

[Senator-elect Spark]

There no way that Maryland votes for the GOP again. Wes Moore is going to run it up in Baltimore city.

[Progressive Pessimist]

How much do people think Moore will win by? I heard he's talking Cox seriously and intends to campaign like he has a serious chance.

I think Moore ends up with about 60-65 percent of the vote.

20 points as his absolute bedrock.

You think Cox hits 40? I doubt it.

Not exactly. Cox's ceiling is probably about 38%, but if the environment is really, really bad for Democrats maybe he could hit 40%. I doubt it though.

[Duke of York]

There no way that Maryland votes for the GOP again. Wes Moore is going to run it up in Baltimore city.

Not just there but the DC and Baltimore suburbs, rapidly trending blue Anne Arundel County and Frederick County. he probably wins every county Biden did.

wouldn't be shocked if he added Wicomico  and Calvert.

[If my soul was made of stone]

There no way that Maryland votes for the GOP again. Wes Moore is going to run it up in Baltimore city.

Not just there but the DC and Baltimore suburbs, rapidly trending blue Anne Arundel County and Frederick County. he probably wins every county Biden did.

wouldn't be shocked if he added Wicomico and Calvert.

AACo and Frederick should be in the bag for him; Kent and Talbot are much more dependent on relative turnout of their contrasting geographic/demographic bases (Chestertown vs Most Everything Else, Easton/St. Michaels vs Most Everything Else, the extent to which retirees will still be enamored with Hogan romanticism or pissed at Biden). Calvert and Wicomico aren't diversifying fast enough to flip and are still a bit too classically "Southern" in profile at the moment for folks to be Very Concerned about a pro-Trump GOP nominee; note that Most Hated Man In Maryland Andy Harris still lost Wicomico in 2018 while facing a much closer race in MD-01 than usual.

[Duke of York]

There no way that Maryland votes for the GOP again. Wes Moore is going to run it up in Baltimore city.

Not just there but the DC and Baltimore suburbs, rapidly trending blue Anne Arundel County and Frederick County. he probably wins every county Biden did.

wouldn't be shocked if he added Wicomico and Calvert.

AACo and Frederick should be in the bag for him; Kent and Talbot are much more dependent on relative turnout of their contrasting geographic/demographic bases (Chestertown vs Most Everything Else, Easton/St. Michaels vs Most Everything Else, the extent to which retirees will still be enamored with Hogan romanticism or pissed at Biden). Calvert and Wicomico aren't diversifying fast enough to flip and are still a bit too classically "Southern" in profile at the moment for folks to be Very Concerned about a pro-Trump GOP nominee; note that Most Hated Man In Maryland Andy Harris still lost Wicomico in 2018 while facing a much closer race in MD-01 than usual.

a reasonable assessment. Kent will likely be very close.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They have yet to release a GE poll and Cook moves this to Solid D but doesn't move OH Sen to Tossup

[PragmaticPopulist]

Moore has signaled that he's taking the general election seriously and will actively campaign throughout the state, not just in the Baltimore and DC metros.

Moore embodies a lot that I can't stand about liquid modernity, Maryland politics, and the way that broader society engages with deprived communities, but he was ultimately the lesser evil against the entrenched corrupt conservadem and the Beltway-brained union-buster. I'll most likely vote third-party in the general (Green or Working Class) since he clearly won't have any trouble dispatching the face of the MDGOP's rejection of Maoist Fat Larry (bulldozing the City of Baltimore is the floor, building a Naypyidaw-tier highway in Garrett County is the compromise, just cancelling the Red Line is a humiliation).

You may be right, but I wouldn't dismiss him immediately. I think he won because voters were looking for someone new. I've met him a few times and he didn't have the same aura that other politicians tend to have. He seemed to have an authenticity that the others lacked, and stuck to positive themes in the primary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cook moves this race to Solid D and they won't budge on OH and Sabato still has WI Lean R LOL, there hasn't been a single GE ooll

It's Lean D but I think it's gonna be close 52)47

[Duke of York]

Cook moves this race to Solid D and they won't budge on OH and Sabato still has WI Lean R LOL, there hasn't been a single GE ooll

It's Lean D but I think it's gonna be close 52)47

I don't think Cox is going to break 40 percent. No way he replicates anything close to Hogan's numbers.

[ProgressiveModerate]

People forget how blue Maryland is at this point and how much of that is from hyper-D African-American or White Liberal areas around DC.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cook moves this race to Solid D and they won't budge on OH and Sabato still has WI Lean R LOL, there hasn't been a single GE ooll

It's Lean D but I think it's gonna be close 52)47

I don't think Cox is going to break 40 percent. No way he replicates anything close to Hogan's numbers.

I didn't say it's not Lean D I said wait for a poll to move it to solid the pollsters have yet to change OH Sen and how many polls has Vance lost and all the pollsters except Cook still has WI Sen Lean R because they only poll the race when MQK polls it they rarely poll WI Sen and Johnson was losing in that poll 46/44

[Progressive Pessimist]

Cook moves this race to Solid D and they won't budge on OH and Sabato still has WI Lean R LOL, there hasn't been a single GE ooll

It's Lean D but I think it's gonna be close 52)47

I don't think Cox is going to break 40 percent. No way he replicates anything close to Hogan's numbers.

Olawakandi rarely makes sense, and usually it's not worth trying to clarify anything he is trying to say, but I think he was referring to the Ryan-Vance race as 52-47 and lean D.

While I'm on the subject, if I could make one wish that would encompass everything I want to happen in this year's midterms it would simply be for Olawakandi's predictions to come true. He must live in such a blissful state of mind...

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Cook moves this race to Solid D and they won't budge on OH and Sabato still has WI Lean R LOL, there hasn't been a single GE ooll

It's Lean D but I think it's gonna be close 52)47

I don't think Cox is going to break 40 percent. No way he replicates anything close to Hogan's numbers.

Olawakandi rarely makes sense, and usually it's not worth trying to clarify anything he is trying to say, but I think he was referring to the Ryan-Vance race as 52-47 and lean D.

While I'm on the subject, if I could make one wish that would encompass everything I want to happen in this year's midterms it would simply be for Olawakandi's predictions to come true. He must live in such a blissful state of mind...

Well being God is fun.

Anyway, I'm surprised Moore won by so much. Polls had Franchot in the lead until about a week before and then Perez was in the lead.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Cook moves this race to Solid D and they won't budge on OH and Sabato still has WI Lean R LOL, there hasn't been a single GE ooll

It's Lean D but I think it's gonna be close 52)47

I don't think Cox is going to break 40 percent. No way he replicates anything close to Hogan's numbers.

Olawakandi rarely makes sense, and usually it's not worth trying to clarify anything he is trying to say, but I think he was referring to the Ryan-Vance race as 52-47 and lean D.

While I'm on the subject, if I could make one wish that would encompass everything I want to happen in this year's midterms it would simply be for Olawakandi's predictions to come true. He must live in such a blissful state of mind...

Well being God is fun.

Anyway, I'm surprised Moore won by so much. Polls had Franchot in the lead until about a week before and then Perez was in the lead.

I know that I sound like a broken record in noting how Maryland has become a microcosm of the Democratic Primary, but just like how national primaries are determined almost entirely by black voters-that is a similar phenomenon here, from what I can tell.

I am by no means an expert on Maryland politics, but it seems like Moore carved out a niche among the state's black voters and won due to running up the numbers in the state's counties with the highest black populations-Prince George's especially. He has an inspiring backstory that he ran on and it seemed to work in garnering more enthusiasm than the other black candidates like Baker (who in dropping out probably gave Moore an even bigger boost) and King. Couple that with high profile endorsements and a divided opposition, and I can definitely see why he won. Though it was hardly the blowout it looked like before the absentee ballots were counted.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Cook moves this race to Solid D and they won't budge on OH and Sabato still has WI Lean R LOL, there hasn't been a single GE ooll

It's Lean D but I think it's gonna be close 52)47

I don't think Cox is going to break 40 percent. No way he replicates anything close to Hogan's numbers.

Olawakandi rarely makes sense, and usually it's not worth trying to clarify anything he is trying to say, but I think he was referring to the Ryan-Vance race as 52-47 and lean D.

While I'm on the subject, if I could make one wish that would encompass everything I want to happen in this year's midterms it would simply be for Olawakandi's predictions to come true. He must live in such a blissful state of mind...

Well being God is fun.

Anyway, I'm surprised Moore won by so much. Polls had Franchot in the lead until about a week before and then Perez was in the lead.

I know that I sound like a broken record in noting how Maryland has become a microcosm of the Democratic Primary, but just like how national primaries are determined almost entirely by black voters-that is a similar phenomenon here, from what I can tell.

I am by no means an expert on Maryland politics, but it seems like Moore carved out a niche among the state's black voters and won due to running up the numbers in the state's counties with the highest black populations-Prince George's especially. He has an inspiring backstory that he ran on and it seemed to work in garnering more enthusiasm than the other black candidates like Baker (who in dropping out probably gave Moore an even bigger boost) and King. Couple that with high profile endorsements and a divided opposition, and I can definitely see why he won. Though it was hardly the blowout it looked like before the absentee ballots were counted.

What's particuarly impressive is that he was able to unite a lot of unique African American communities in Maryland. Maryland's black population is socioeconomically very diverse as you have some really rough areas in Baltimore and some very wealthy black communities just outside DC. Also just the fact Baltimore and greater DC are very distinct.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Cook moves this race to Solid D and they won't budge on OH and Sabato still has WI Lean R LOL, there hasn't been a single GE ooll

It's Lean D but I think it's gonna be close 52)47

I don't think Cox is going to break 40 percent. No way he replicates anything close to Hogan's numbers.

Olawakandi rarely makes sense, and usually it's not worth trying to clarify anything he is trying to say, but I think he was referring to the Ryan-Vance race as 52-47 and lean D.

While I'm on the subject, if I could make one wish that would encompass everything I want to happen in this year's midterms it would simply be for Olawakandi's predictions to come true. He must live in such a blissful state of mind...

Well being God is fun.

Anyway, I'm surprised Moore won by so much. Polls had Franchot in the lead until about a week before and then Perez was in the lead.

I know that I sound like a broken record in noting how Maryland has become a microcosm of the Democratic Primary, but just like how national primaries are determined almost entirely by black voters-that is a similar phenomenon here, from what I can tell.

I am by no means an expert on Maryland politics, but it seems like Moore carved out a niche among the state's black voters and won due to running up the numbers in the state's counties with the highest black populations-Prince George's especially. He has an inspiring backstory that he ran on and it seemed to work in garnering more enthusiasm than the other black candidates like Baker (who in dropping out probably gave Moore an even bigger boost) and King. Couple that with high profile endorsements and a divided opposition, and I can definitely see why he won. Though it was hardly the blowout it looked like before the absentee ballots were counted.

What's particuarly impressive is that he was able to unite a lot of unique African American communities in Maryland. Maryland's black population is socioeconomically very diverse as you have some really rough areas in Baltimore and some very wealthy black communities just outside DC. Also just the fact Baltimore and greater DC are very distinct.

Excellent point. And, again, I think it goes back to his biography. He has a real rags-to-riches story that all social classes can probably relate to and find inspiring.