How differently will Indiana and Missouri vote this November? (user search)
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  How differently will Indiana and Missouri vote this November? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: How much differently will Indiana and Missouri vote this year?
#1
Missouri 10+ to the left of Indiana
 
#2
Missouri 5-10 to the left of Indiana
 
#3
Missouri 2-5 to the left of Indiana
 
#4
Missouri 0-2 to the left of Indiana
 
#5
Indiana 0-2 to the left of Missouri
 
#6
Indiana 2-5 to the left of Missouri
 
#7
Indiana 5-10 to the left of Missouri
 
#8
Indiana 10+ to the left of Missouri
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 39

Author Topic: How differently will Indiana and Missouri vote this November?  (Read 1734 times)
Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,275


P P P
« on: April 22, 2020, 02:20:42 AM »

Predictions as of today :

Holcomb wins 62/36 (R+24)
Parson wins 57/41 (R+16)
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Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,275


P P P
« Reply #1 on: April 22, 2020, 02:27:19 AM »

Hot take here but I think it will be more than 20 points difference between Indiana and Missouri. Holcomb will probably outrun Trump by a substantial margin while Parson will probably lose.

Lol why?

Galloway is a decent candidate but I don't see why Parson would lose? MO is solid GOP and he's no Greitens.

It seems like Atlas Dems really have waaaay too much faith in the MO Democratic Party. And severely underestimate the MO GOP. This reminds me of all the people who thought McCaskill would win. I never thought for a second she would and I was right.


You're talking to #Solid, dude. Look at his predictions record.
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Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,275


P P P
« Reply #2 on: April 22, 2020, 02:39:48 AM »

"Hot take" here, but I think Parson is going to underperform Holcomb quite substantially. Probably not by enough to actually lose, but 10+ points is definitely possible.

Really don’t see Parson winning by more than Holcomb.

Honestly I think Parson wins at least by 5 and I'm being generous to Galloway there.

But Holcomb is running against a nobody so yeah he'll win by 15-20 points.

My guess is about +15 for Holcomb and +7 for Parson

Nah, your numbers are too low.

Holcomb is almost certain to outperform Trump by a few points and even if Parson is likely to run a bit behind Trump he will still win by double digits, the few polls we have give him a double digits leads over his opponent and it's uncommon for MO republicans to run behind their polls numbers
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Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,275


P P P
« Reply #3 on: April 28, 2020, 05:58:29 AM »

According to Parson, "most businesses" will be able to reopen on May 4. Far too early. Galloway needs to really hammer this in her campaign - if there's a second wave of the virus, I think pointing to that can give her a chance. Her campaign platform is sort of "gently populist," so I think it could work if she paints Parson as caring more about business than people's lives. Left-populism works in Missouri if social issues are kept completely out of the picture (see the right-to-work and minimum wage votes in 2018).

The vast majority of states will let businesses reopen in May, don't really see why anyone would blame Parson for a such move.
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