How differently will Indiana and Missouri vote this November?
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  How differently will Indiana and Missouri vote this November?
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Poll
Question: How much differently will Indiana and Missouri vote this year?
#1
Missouri 10+ to the left of Indiana
 
#2
Missouri 5-10 to the left of Indiana
 
#3
Missouri 2-5 to the left of Indiana
 
#4
Missouri 0-2 to the left of Indiana
 
#5
Indiana 0-2 to the left of Missouri
 
#6
Indiana 2-5 to the left of Missouri
 
#7
Indiana 5-10 to the left of Missouri
 
#8
Indiana 10+ to the left of Missouri
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 39

Author Topic: How differently will Indiana and Missouri vote this November?  (Read 1692 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: April 21, 2020, 04:54:45 PM »

Indiana and Missouri are known for their very similar voting patterns. How much differently will they vote this year?
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #1 on: April 21, 2020, 05:37:13 PM »

"Hot take" here, but I think Parson is going to underperform Holcomb quite substantially. Probably not by enough to actually lose, but 10+ points is definitely possible.

Really don’t see Parson winning by more than Holcomb.
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Astatine
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« Reply #2 on: April 21, 2020, 05:58:25 PM »

"Hot take" here, but I think Parson is going to underperform Holcomb quite substantially. Probably not by enough to actually lose, but 10+ points is definitely possible.

Really don’t see Parson winning by more than Holcomb.

This.

Nicole Galloway has at least some name recognition as only statewide elected Democrat (of course not as much as Parson), while the Democratic candidate in Indiana (Myers?) is virtually unknown.

The only poll for IN has Holcomb up by 20, while most polls see Parson winning by roundabout 15, although I tend to think that the MO race will be a bit closer.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #3 on: April 21, 2020, 06:59:06 PM »

Hot take here but I think it will be more than 20 points difference between Indiana and Missouri. Holcomb will probably outrun Trump by a substantial margin while Parson will probably lose.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #4 on: April 21, 2020, 08:15:26 PM »
« Edited: April 21, 2020, 08:20:47 PM by Lechasseur »

Hot take here but I think it will be more than 20 points difference between Indiana and Missouri. Holcomb will probably outrun Trump by a substantial margin while Parson will probably lose.

Lol why?

Galloway is a decent candidate but I don't see why Parson would lose? MO is solid GOP and he's no Greitens.

It seems like Atlas Dems really have waaaay too much faith in the MO Democratic Party. And severely underestimate the MO GOP. This reminds me of all the people who thought McCaskill would win. I never thought for a second she would and I was right.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #5 on: April 21, 2020, 08:17:21 PM »

"Hot take" here, but I think Parson is going to underperform Holcomb quite substantially. Probably not by enough to actually lose, but 10+ points is definitely possible.

Really don’t see Parson winning by more than Holcomb.

Honestly I think Parson wins at least by 5 and I'm being generous to Galloway there.

But Holcomb is running against a nobody so yeah he'll win by 15-20 points.

My guess is about +15 for Holcomb and +7 for Parson
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #6 on: April 21, 2020, 08:21:47 PM »

I voted MO 5-10 points to the left of IN myself, but both will be relatively comfortable victories
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #7 on: April 22, 2020, 02:20:42 AM »

Predictions as of today :

Holcomb wins 62/36 (R+24)
Parson wins 57/41 (R+16)
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #8 on: April 22, 2020, 02:27:19 AM »

Hot take here but I think it will be more than 20 points difference between Indiana and Missouri. Holcomb will probably outrun Trump by a substantial margin while Parson will probably lose.

Lol why?

Galloway is a decent candidate but I don't see why Parson would lose? MO is solid GOP and he's no Greitens.

It seems like Atlas Dems really have waaaay too much faith in the MO Democratic Party. And severely underestimate the MO GOP. This reminds me of all the people who thought McCaskill would win. I never thought for a second she would and I was right.


You're talking to #Solid, dude. Look at his predictions record.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #9 on: April 22, 2020, 02:39:48 AM »

"Hot take" here, but I think Parson is going to underperform Holcomb quite substantially. Probably not by enough to actually lose, but 10+ points is definitely possible.

Really don’t see Parson winning by more than Holcomb.

Honestly I think Parson wins at least by 5 and I'm being generous to Galloway there.

But Holcomb is running against a nobody so yeah he'll win by 15-20 points.

My guess is about +15 for Holcomb and +7 for Parson

Nah, your numbers are too low.

Holcomb is almost certain to outperform Trump by a few points and even if Parson is likely to run a bit behind Trump he will still win by double digits, the few polls we have give him a double digits leads over his opponent and it's uncommon for MO republicans to run behind their polls numbers
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #10 on: April 22, 2020, 04:47:25 AM »

"Hot take" here, but I think Parson is going to underperform Holcomb quite substantially. Probably not by enough to actually lose, but 10+ points is definitely possible.

Really don’t see Parson winning by more than Holcomb.

Honestly I think Parson wins at least by 5 and I'm being generous to Galloway there.

But Holcomb is running against a nobody so yeah he'll win by 15-20 points.

My guess is about +15 for Holcomb and +7 for Parson

Nah, your numbers are too low.

Holcomb is almost certain to outperform Trump by a few points and even if Parson is likely to run a bit behind Trump he will still win by double digits, the few polls we have give him a double digits leads over his opponent and it's uncommon for MO republicans to run behind their polls numbers


I was trying to be generous to the Dems, but you're probably right
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #11 on: April 22, 2020, 07:27:04 AM »

Holcomb wins by at least 20, Parson by at least 12-15.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #12 on: April 25, 2020, 06:32:42 PM »

Nicole Galloway has a respectable showing, but still loses by 6 or 7.

Indiana is a disaster though
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #13 on: April 25, 2020, 07:27:12 PM »

Holcomb wins by at least 20, Parson by at least 12-15.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: April 25, 2020, 09:30:26 PM »

In a huge landslide,  Galloway can still win
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #15 on: April 27, 2020, 04:45:54 PM »

According to Parson, "most businesses" will be able to reopen on May 4. Far too early. Galloway needs to really hammer this in her campaign - if there's a second wave of the virus, I think pointing to that can give her a chance. Her campaign platform is sort of "gently populist," so I think it could work if she paints Parson as caring more about business than people's lives. Left-populism works in Missouri if social issues are kept completely out of the picture (see the right-to-work and minimum wage votes in 2018).
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #16 on: April 28, 2020, 05:58:29 AM »

According to Parson, "most businesses" will be able to reopen on May 4. Far too early. Galloway needs to really hammer this in her campaign - if there's a second wave of the virus, I think pointing to that can give her a chance. Her campaign platform is sort of "gently populist," so I think it could work if she paints Parson as caring more about business than people's lives. Left-populism works in Missouri if social issues are kept completely out of the picture (see the right-to-work and minimum wage votes in 2018).

The vast majority of states will let businesses reopen in May, don't really see why anyone would blame Parson for a such move.
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