Israel General Discussion: The Return of the Rotation Government

[Hnv1]

I have a question about this fur trade ban.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54418334

What exactly is the point, if the Ultra-Orthodox are granted an exemption? Aren't they the number one consumers of fur by far? I doubt there was a massive trade in, like, mink coats before. Considering it's, you know, Israel, where heavy winter attire isn't exactly in demand.

Virtue signal. No actual point but look enlightened

[Hnv1]

https://twitter.com/LahavHarkov/status/1313526353610899457

Even with Yamina likely being overhyped, this poll is something else.

The possibility of a Yamina YA YB BW government with Meretz supporting from the outside is tenable. But an election cycle is far away and Yamina won’t hold this figures under heavy crossfire campaign.
Everyone just need to wait and let Bibi destroy himself with the economic crisis, his trial, and on going protests. You can see the strain on him already, and he will be his own downfall ultimately

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Is the Blue and White-Labor merger still going ahead?

[Angel of Death]

https://twitter.com/LahavHarkov/status/1313526353610899457

Even with Yamina likely being overhyped, this poll is something else.

The possibility of a Yamina YA YB BW government with Meretz supporting from the outside is tenable. But an election cycle is far away and Yamina won’t hold this figures under heavy crossfire campaign.
Everyone just need to wait and let Bibi destroy himself with the economic crisis, his trial, and on going protests. You can see the strain on him already, and he will be his own downfall ultimately

You'll have to give a very good explanation why Meretz would support any government with a diametrically opposing party like Yamina in it and why, with a result like above, the latter wouldn't just ram through annexation with the help of an almost equally enthusiastic Likud and the ultra-orthodox (with no regard for the recent normalization deals).

[Hnv1]

https://twitter.com/LahavHarkov/status/1313526353610899457

Even with Yamina likely being overhyped, this poll is something else.

The possibility of a Yamina YA YB BW government with Meretz supporting from the outside is tenable. But an election cycle is far away and Yamina won’t hold this figures under heavy crossfire campaign.
Everyone just need to wait and let Bibi destroy himself with the economic crisis, his trial, and on going protests. You can see the strain on him already, and he will be his own downfall ultimately

You'll have to give a very good explanation why Meretz would support any government with a diametrically opposing party like Yamina in it and why, with a result like above, the latter wouldn't just ram through annexation with the help of an almost equally enthusiastic Likud and the ultra-orthodox (with no regard for the recent normalization deals).

At most Meretz can abstain, if they vote down a government getting Bibi out the party is finished for good.

[Hnv1]

Is the Blue and White-Labor merger still going ahead?

So it seems. Labour is behind ed at this point. Maybe if Michaeli takes over and pull a different merger with a new Holdai party (who’s Labour himself). But I can’t see them running alone (ditto to Meretz so the polls are misleading).


** I believe the threshold will be lowered towards the next election and that might change the picture for Meretz but not for Labour

[jaymichaud]

Is the Blue and White-Labor merger still going ahead?

I imagine so. One is basically nothing but a social issues party and another stands for literally nothing at all. Pathetic really.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1313831721981415428?s=20

Good data thread on COVID right now in Israel and why things failed. Just substitute Haredi in whenever he tries to translate it as Orthodox.

[Estrella]

Now that HaAvoda is dead and Gantz is busy arranging the funeral, I think it's time for an autopsy: I've heard some statements about how the statist socialist system they put in place during their uninterrupted three decades of rule still persists in many ways... but I'm not seeing any of it. It's not just Israel marketing itself as a 'startup nation'; the country has basically average levels of taxation and spending (40% of GDP, as flawed an indicator as it is), most industral conglomerates, banks, etc. have been privatized, kibbutzim are all but dead (at least the way they were originally intended to work is), people can actually buy land instead of leasing it from the state, Histadrut keeps losing members, and so on and so on.

Do some knowledgeable people have something to say about this?

[Estrella]

Here's an updated version of something I did back last September. Right click for a bigger version.

All Knesset elections, from 1949 to 2020.

Instead of a chaotic party-by-party mess, I placed every list that won seats into one of seven categories:

Then I grouped those seven categories into three big blocks:

This is how I classified each party. Note that I'm leaving out some of the "win a single seat and vanish" outfits that were so common in the 70s and 80s, but I classified those too.

Arabs: Satellite lists, Hadash*, United Arab List, Progressive List for Peace, Balad, Ra'am, Joint List, Ta'al
Far-left: Mapam, Maki, Rakah, Ratz, Hadash*, Meretz
Left: Mapai, Ahdut HaAvoda, Alignment, Rafi, Labor, One Israel, Zionist Union, Gesher, Democratic Camp*, Labor-Gesher(-Meretz)*
Centre: General Zionists, Yemenite Association, Progressive Party, Libralit, Ind. Liberals, National List, Dash, Free Centre, Telem, Shinui, Third Way, Kadima, Gil, Yesh Atid, Hatnuah, Kahol Lavan
Right: Herut, Gahal, Likud, Tzomet, Yisrael Beitenu, Yisrael BaAliyah, Kulanu
Religious: United Religious Front, Sephardim & Oriental Communities, (Poalei) Aguadat Yisrael, Shas, Degel HaTorah, UTJ
National Religious: Hapoel HaMizrachi, Tehiya, Tami, Kach, National Union, Jewish Home, URWP, Yamina

* Hadash is placed as far-left before 1992; in every election since then, their caucus was majority Arab and that's how I classified them. Meretz was grandfathered into far-left as late as April 2019, but I considered them just left afterwards, the alliance with Ehud Barak et al being the dividing point.

[Hnv1]

Here's an updated version of something I did back last September. Right click for a bigger version.

All Knesset elections, from 1949 to 2020.

Instead of a chaotic party-by-party mess, I placed every list that won seats into one of seven categories:

Then I grouped those seven categories into three big blocks:

This is how I classified each party. Note that I'm leaving out some of the "win a single seat and vanish" outfits that were so common in the 70s and 80s, but I classified those too.

Arabs: Satellite lists, Hadash*, United Arab List, Progressive List for Peace, Balad, Ra'am, Joint List, Ta'al
Far-left: Mapam, Maki, Rakah, Ratz, Hadash*, Meretz
Left: Mapai, Ahdut HaAvoda, Alignment, Rafi, Labor, One Israel, Zionist Union, Gesher, Democratic Camp*, Labor-Gesher(-Meretz)*
Centre: General Zionists, Yemenite Association, Progressive Party, Libralit, Ind. Liberals, National List, Dash, Free Centre, Telem, Shinui, Third Way, Kadima, Gil, Yesh Atid, Hatnuah, Kahol Lavan
Right: Herut, Gahal, Likud, Tzomet, Yisrael Beitenu, Yisrael BaAliyah, Kulanu
Religious: United Religious Front, Sephardim & Oriental Communities, (Poalei) Aguadat Yisrael, Shas, Degel HaTorah, UTJ
National Religious: Hapoel HaMizrachi, Tehiya, Tami, Kach, National Union, Jewish Home, URWP, Yamina

* Hadash is placed as far-left before 1992; in every election since then, their caucus was majority Arab and that's how I classified them. Meretz was grandfathered into far-left as late as April 2019, but I considered them just left afterwards, the alliance with Ehud Barak et al being the dividing point.

There were minor far left parties you left out (Uri Avneri, Sheli Camp). The blocs image is also a bit misleading as the national religious were the closest ally to Labour up to the 80’s. Also for historical accuracy the progressive party can be classic as either left or centre, it was after all a “non socialist workers party”

[jaymichaud]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/lapid-pushes-no-confidence-vote-against-netanyahu-gantz-says-he-wont-back-it/

Lmao Gantz is f'ing weak.

[Hnv1]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/lapid-pushes-no-confidence-vote-against-netanyahu-gantz-says-he-wont-back-it/

Lmao Gantz is f'ing weak.

Meanwhile Bennett and some of the JL voted for (constructive no confidence vote) which made Likud panic screens light up. In general in the past week Likud seem to be lowering the flames and making sounds like they will bring a budget. I assume Bibi will try to postpone it the farthest he can to keep some manoeuvre space. But some claim he might let Gantz become PM knowing he can kneecap him at any moment as a lame duck.

We’ll see

[Hnv1]

Bennett breaking to the centre saying he supports equal rights to LGBT. I can only deduce he’ll shed Smotric soon. Risky gamble by him nonetheless

[jaymichaud]

Bennett breaking to the centre saying he supports equal rights to LGBT. I can only deduce he’ll shed Smotric soon. Risky gamble by him nonetheless

Gonna be wild when he pulls a Sharon and endorses the two state solution in 2030.

[Hnv1]

Bennett breaking to the centre saying he supports equal rights to LGBT. I can only deduce he’ll shed Smotric soon. Risky gamble by him nonetheless

Gonna be wild when he pulls a Sharon and endorses the two state solution in 2030.

The Palestinian issue is no longer an electoral issue in Israel, that’s why Bennett can pick up votes to the left of Likud. We are now living through the second political realignment in Israel leading to the third party system.

[Zinneke]

What exactly does Bennett stand for then? The Anti-Netenyahu?

[CumbrianLefty]

Bennett breaking to the centre saying he supports equal rights to LGBT. I can only deduce he’ll shed Smotric soon. Risky gamble by him nonetheless

Gonna be wild when he pulls a Sharon and endorses the two state solution in 2030.

The Palestinian issue is no longer an electoral issue in Israel, that’s why Bennett can pick up votes to the left of Likud. We are now living through the second political realignment in Israel leading to the third party system.

Which will consist of what, basically?

[Hnv1]

Bennett breaking to the centre saying he supports equal rights to LGBT. I can only deduce he’ll shed Smotric soon. Risky gamble by him nonetheless

Gonna be wild when he pulls a Sharon and endorses the two state solution in 2030.

The Palestinian issue is no longer an electoral issue in Israel, that’s why Bennett can pick up votes to the left of Likud. We are now living through the second political realignment in Israel leading to the third party system.

Which will consist of what, basically?

Who knows. I assume realignment on liberal-conservative lines

[jaymichaud]

If there are early elections and the polling stays on trend, couldn't a non-Likud and non-Haredi government be formed?

A Yamina (20+) and Yesh Atid (20+) rotation with B&W (~10) and Yisrael Beiteinu (~10) as coalition partners?

[Hnv1]

If there are early elections and the polling stays on trend, couldn't a non-Likud and non-Haredi government be formed?

A Yamina (20+) and Yesh Atid (20+) rotation with B&W (~10) and Yisrael Beiteinu (~10) as coalition partners?

On paper yes. but those numbers don't make sense (it will require a big fall in Arab turnout). Also Bennett might find it hard to govern in such a coalition, it might be a temporary one and after a year hoping Bibi is no longer Likud leader he could add them to counterbalance YA.

Even if he doesn't get 61 seats, Meretz\whoever will run left of YA could be persuaded to some form of confidence and supply.

[Silent Hunter]

Sudan is to normalise relations with Israel

This is the Middle Eastern equivalent of a Nuclear Elmo.

[njwes]

Sudan is to normalise relations with Israel

Wow. It's incredible how quickly Palestine and the Palestinian issue has slid to near-Tibet status in just ~10 years.

[Saruku]

[Hnv1]

No doubt. But concern isn't enough anymore, especially when you wave big enough benefits for their leaders.

I have to say with all honesty that although the UAE and Bahrain agreement was BS, the Sudan one and the tightening relations with Egypt are making me question some of the long-standing positions we held on the left.