TX Primary Thread - March 7, 2006

[Sam Spade]

Yes, I know.  It's still about a week and a half away.

But the earliest primaries in the nation, the Texas primaries, are going to be held then and I wanted to create this discussion thread for such.

Governor, Senate, House and Dogcatcher primaries are held on this date and there are three major primaries that I'll be looking at come the 7th.

Any primary runoffs (no candidate gets 50%) will be held in April.

Also, after March 7, Independent candidates have until May 11 to gather the requisite signatures to be on the ballot in November.  For example, in the Governor's race, this means getting 49,000+ signatures of people who did not vote in the primaries or the runoffs.

Let's begin:
1.  Democratic Governor's primary:

Three major candidates: Chris Bell, Bob Gammage and Felix Alvarado

Yes, we know the state of the Texas Democratic Party, but this is still an important primary.

I have not seen any major polls on the primary.  Please post any, if you know of any. 

2.  Democratic Primary (CD-28)

Two major candidates: Ciro Rodriguez and Henry Cuellar (incumbent)

Two years ago in this primary, Henry Cuellar defeated Ciro Rodriguez by 58 votes when a non-opened ballot box was discovered (shades of New Mexico).

Now, Rodriguez is back and running again.  There is no Republican opponent in the race (no Republican backbench in the area), so the winner of the primary is going to be winner of the election.  In 2004, Bush won this CD by roughly 5 points.

This race sort of reminds me of Texas races in the 1950s. 

Cuellar, the incumbent, is a self-proclaimed moderate to conservative Democrat (his voting record ranks as 8th most conservative for Democrats in the House).  He has a long-time relationship with President Bush, whom he served as Secretary of State under when Bush was governor.  He also campaigned for him in 2000 and supported him in 2004.  Cuellar is probably one of the last pro-business Democrats left in the House that I can think of. 

Free trade will not be an issue in the race, however, as both Cuellar and Rodriguez support NAFTA and CAFTA enthusiastically (as does the CD)

Rodriguez, the former incumbent, is a more traditional Democrat (in DC terms).  His voting record while in Congress was roughly to the center of Democrats as a whole, with the usual South Texas rightward trend on free trade and gun control.

The Democratic left has made it a big target to go after Cuellar, who they view as a lackey of Bush, and replace him with the actual "Democrat" Rodriguez.  Should be entertaining.

3.  Republican Primary (CD-22)

Major players: Tom DeLay, Tom Fjetland, Tom Campbell

DeLay will obviously win this race.  Both of his opponents are real zeros.

The question is by how much.  A tighter margin in the primary could indicate major trouble with traditional Republicans (the ones who usually turn out for primaries) and therefore in the general election.
Anyways, any polls and news are welcome for this upcoming election.

[TheresNoMoney]

Isn't there also a well-known independent (former Republican) candidate running against Delay this year?

[Sam Spade]

Isn't there also a well-known independent (former Republican) candidate running against Delay this year?

Steve Stockman is running as an Independent (to the right of DeLay) in the CD. 

Stockman has actually said that he is actually running against his old nemesis Lampson, not DeLay (Lampson beat him in 1996 or 1998?, I forget when).  Obviously, his candidacy would help Lampson, though, so that really makes no sense when you think about it. 

He'll have to collect some percentage of signatures as well to be on the ballot (though I don't know, jimrtex might)

[nini2287]

I've seen some of the liberal blogs talking up Rodriguez.  I certainly hope Ceullar wins, though.

[TheresNoMoney]

I certainly hope Ceullar wins, though.

Cuellar is a Bushbot.

[Jake]

What exactly is a Bushbot Scoonie? Someone who disagrees with you? Maybe someone who doesn't call for the President's impeachment?

[TheresNoMoney]

What exactly is a Bushbot Scoonie?

Someone who votes for all the president's bad plans, like the Medicare prescription drug plan and privatizing Social Security.

Cuellar also sat on the Republican side of the aisle during the SOTU. He is the ultimate DINO (I don't like that term but it really applies with Cuellar).

[WMS]

Two years ago in this primary, Henry Cuellar defeated Ciro Rodriguez by 58 votes when a non-opened ballot box was discovered (shades of New Mexico).

I was there for that one. I know most of the officials who were involved in that, too, since I was working in that county's election bureau in 2000. Ye God, what a mess...

[jimrtex]

Also, after March 7, Independent candidates have until May 11 to gather the requisite signatures to be on the ballot in November.  For example, in the Governor's race, this means getting 49,000+ signatures of people who did not vote in the primaries or the runoffs.

The petition signing period is delayed until after the runoff if either party has a runoff for that office.  A runoff for Democrat nomination for governor is certainly a possibility.  The number of signatures represents 1% of the votes cast in the last governor's race (just short of 5 million).  Keeton Strayhorn is making a fuss about this, but I'm not really sure about the details.  I just got a phone call to be sure to vote in the Republican primary for Lt. Governor, where David Dewhurst is essentially unopposed in the primary and the general election.  Dewhurst is quite wealthy and probably feels the need to spend some money on re-election, but it could be intended to get people to vote in the primary so that they can't sign the petitions.

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Alvarado has apparently withdrawn from the Governor's race, and is running for the congressional nomination in CD 12 (Fort Worth).  His sister, Maria Luisa Alvarado continues to seek nomination for Lt.Governor.

Somehow, I don't think that the 3rd candidate, Rashad Jafer, will pick up many votes based on his name.  If Alvarado were still running, and given the relative heavy early voting in South Texas and very light voting elsewhere, he might have been able to pull off the upset.

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Also Victor Morales former senatorial candidate who has moved from East Texas to his parent's home in order to run.

In 2004, Webb County (Laredo) cast 15 of 49 thousand votes (84% for Cuellar) in the primary, but 17 of 180 thousand votes in the general election.  This was the key to Cuellar's upset.  He may have to get cross-over votes to secure renomination.  In traditionally GOP areas like Guadeloupe County, this may be hard to accomplish.

[jimrtex]

Isn't there also a well-known independent (former Republican) candidate running against Delay this year?

Steve Stockman is running as an Independent (to the right of DeLay) in the CD. 

He'll have to collect some percentage of signatures as well to be on the ballot (though I don't know, jimrtex might)

For district elections it is 5% of the vote for governor in the district (as opposed to 1% in statewide races), but there is a cap of 500.  If there were no cap, 5% of the vote in 2002 would be around 8,000 persons.  This is for different district boundaries, and for US representative rather than governor, but should be about the right magnitude.

[Democratic Hawk]

Out of interest, I wonder how former Democratic Governor Ann Richards would do in Texas these days?

I don't even know if she's still in Texas

Dave

[Sam Spade]

Out of interest, I wonder how former Democratic Governor Ann Richards would do in Texas these days?

I don't even know if she's still in Texas

Dave

She'd lose.  Sorry. 

She actually got lucky in winning in 1990 by facing an opponent named Clayton Williams, who threw the race away to her and then she proceeded to stupidly throw the race away in 1994 (even though it was going to be tough in winning) by going over the line in personally attacking GWB in a debate.

[riceowl]

LOL I remember pictures of my uncle aunt and cousins all wearing "Clayton Williams" t-shirts.

AND my grandfather's car (which has been in the garage for the last 19 years) still has a Clayton Williams bumper sticker beneath the layers of dust.

Good times.

[Q]

Any ideas on the El Paso County Judge primaries (specifically the Dem one)?  I doubt anyone here's following it, but you never know.

[Sam Spade]

Any ideas on the El Paso County Judge primaries (specifically the Dem one)?  I doubt anyone here's following it, but you never know.

Boy, you've got me that one.  I don't know whether anyone here comes from the west part of the state.  Maybe WMS might know.

[minionofmidas]

Also, after March 7, Independent candidates have until May 11 to gather the requisite signatures to be on the ballot in November.  For example, in the Governor's race, this means getting 49,000+ signatures of people who did not vote in the primaries or the runoffs.

The petition signing period is delayed until after the runoff if either party has a runoff for that office.  A runoff for Democrat nomination for governor is certainly a possibility.  The number of signatures represents 1% of the votes cast in the last governor's race (just short of 5 million).  Keeton Strayhorn is making a fuss about this, but I'm not really sure about the details.  I just got a phone call to be sure to vote in the Republican primary for Lt. Governor, where David Dewhurst is essentially unopposed in the primary and the general election.  Dewhurst is quite wealthy and probably feels the need to spend some money on re-election, but it could be intended to get people to vote in the primary so that they can't sign the petitions.

Count on it.

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Alvarado has apparently withdrawn from the Governor's race[/quote] There goes my supported candidate.

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Afro-American or Arab?

[Sam Spade]

Bumping this for the thread in the other part of the forum.

I did find one Congressional poll on the TX-28 primary race.  It is from the Ciro Rodriguez campaign and has been posted on DailyKos, SwingStateProject, etc..  Usual polling caveats for internal polls apply.

Cuellar 39%
Rodriguez 34%
(Victor) Morales 8%

Was done from February 23 to February 26, among an unnumbered group of RV.

[Sam Spade]

Well, I finally did find a poll on the Texas Gov. race primary between Chris Bell, Bob Gammage and some other candidate I can't name.

The problem is that it's three weeks old and I really don't know what it means.  Anyway, I'm surprised I missed this one earlier, as it includes Governor's race numbers as well.

It's a poll for the Dallas Morning News, but the polling company is in New York.  Large sample though.

Link here.

ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS

If the November general election for governor were being held today and Chris Bell were the Democratic nominee, for whom would you vote?
Rick Perry: 36%
Chris Bell: 19%
Carole Keeton Strayhorn: 16%
Kinky Friedman: 10%

If the election were today, and Bob Gammage were the Democratic nominee, for whom would you vote?
Rick Perry: 36%
Bob Gammage: 17%
Carole Keeton Strayhorn: 17%
Kinky Friedman: 10%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Rick Perry is doing as governor?
Approve: 47%
Disapprove: 38%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Carole Keeton Strayhorn is doing as comptroller?
Approve: 53%
Disapprove: 16%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kinky Friedman, or haven't you heard enough about him to have an opinion?
Favorable: 20%
Unfavorable: 15%
Not heard enough: 63%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Chris Bell, or haven't you heard enough about him to have an opinion?
Favorable: 12%
Unfavorable: 5%
Not heard enough: 80%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bob Gammage, or haven't you heard enough about him to have an opinion?
Favorable: 6%
Unfavorable: 2%
Not heard enough: 89%

What do you think has been Mr. Perry's most important accomplishment as governor (no choices provided)?
None: 20%
Hurricane Katrina/disaster relief: 8%
Other: 8%
Education reform/improvement: 7%
Taxes/tax reform/ reduced spending: 2%
Jobs/economic development: 2%
Highway construction: 1%
Border control: 1%

Which of the following do you think has been Mr. Perry's most important accomplishment as governor?
Hurricane Katrina/disaster relief: 28%
None: 21%
Education reform: 13%
Holding the line on taxes: 9%
Highway construction: 9%
Jobs & economic development: 7%
Other: 1%

ASKED OF DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS

If the Democratic Primary for Governor were being held today, for whom would you vote?
Chris Bell: 28%
Bob Gammage: 12%
Not sure: 60%

ASKED OF KINKY FRIEDMAN VOTERS

If the election were today, and the candidates were Rick Perry, Chris Bell and Carole Keeton Strayhorn, for whom would you vote?
Carole Keeton Strayhorn: 34%
Chris Bell: 25%
Rick Perry: 18%
Would not vote: 12%

If the election were today, and the candidates were Rick Perry, Bob Gammage and Carole Keeton Strayhorn, for whom would you vote?
Carole Keeton Strayhorn: 36%
Bob Gammage: 20%
Rick Perry: 18%
Would not vote: 14%

[jimrtex]

Out of interest, I wonder how former Democratic Governor Ann Richards would do in Texas these days?

I don't even know if she's still in Texas

I think she is working for a lobbying firm in Washington D.C. or New York City.

[jimrtex]

Somehow, I don't think that the 3rd candidate, Rashad Jafer, will pick up many votes based on his name. 

Afro-American or Arab?

Pakistani.

[WMS]

Any ideas on the El Paso County Judge primaries (specifically the Dem one)?  I doubt anyone here's following it, but you never know.

Boy, you've got me that one.  I don't know whether anyone here comes from the west part of the state.  Maybe WMS might know.

Sorry, don't know

I really should try and find out, given that El Paso basically dominates southern New Mexico's economy...

[Sam Spade]

Bumping for the primary today...

This is the Secretary of State's website for unofficial primary results.

http://204.65.107.70/

This is the Secretary of State's website (period)

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/

In Texas, polls close at 7:00 PM CST (8:00 EST).

[minionofmidas]

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Chris Bell, or haven't you heard enough about him to have an opinion?
Favorable: 12%
Unfavorable: 5%
Not heard enough: 80%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bob Gammage, or haven't you heard enough about him to have an opinion?
Favorable: 6%
Unfavorable: 2%
Not heard enough: 89%

They get more votes than favorable impressions!

[Sam Spade]

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Chris Bell, or haven't you heard enough about him to have an opinion?
Favorable: 12%
Unfavorable: 5%
Not heard enough: 80%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bob Gammage, or haven't you heard enough about him to have an opinion?
Favorable: 6%
Unfavorable: 2%
Not heard enough: 89%

They get more votes than favorable impressions!

Well, I guess when you're choosing between the guy you don't know against the other guy you don't know, you have to pick somebody. 

[Sam Spade]

Just giving this a little bumpity up.  Polls closed about 22 minutes or so ago. 

Turnout is expected to be light statewide, with bumps here and there, probably for the actually important races.
A little minor news from the Houston Chronicle blog:

http://blogs.chron.com/texaspolitics/

Independent candidate Kinky Friedman is confident that either Chris Bell or Bob Gammage will earn the Democratic nomination tonight.

Otherwise, he's resigned that a runoff would seriously harm his campaign by cutting his time to collect 45,540 valid voter signatures in half from the current 60 days.

"If they have a runoff, I'm screwed," Friedman told the Chronicle. "Sixty days seems like a lot, but it's not."

R.G. Ratcliffe
I tend to agree with Kinky here.