IN-IndyPolitics.org/Change Research: Trump +13

[Tender Branson]

You can view a summary of the results below.   The survey of 1,021 likely voters was conducted from April 10-13 and the poll had a margin of error of 3.1 percent by traditional standards.

President

Donald Trump – 52
Joe Biden – 39
Third-party – 5
Not Sure – 3

Governor

Eric Holcomb (R) – 45
Woody Myers (D) – 25
Donald Rainwater (L) – 8
Undecided – 22

General Favorable/Unfavorable ratings

Donald Trump – 50/46
Mike Pence – 49/45
Joe Biden – 32/59
Eric Holcomb – 47/28
Woody Myers – 9/6  (20 percent were neutral and 65 percent say they never heard of him)

Right Track/Wrong Track

The country – 49/51
Indiana – 54/46
Your city/Neighborhood – 67/33

Reaction to dealing with COVID-19 (Favorable/Unfavorable)

The federal government – 46/46
Donald Trump – 49/45
State government – 64/25
Eric Holcomb – 63/23  
City/county government – 61/20  
School Districts – 79/9

Top issues (That polled 5 percent or higher)

Health Care Access and Insurance – 12
Education – 12
Transportation/Infrastructure – 6
Jobs and the Economy – 5
Taxes – 5

http://indypolitics.org/poll-positions-9/

[President Johnson]

Safe Republican. Nothing to see here.

[Tender Branson]

6-point swing from 2016 to Biden.

Microsoft‘s poll even has IN a tie today (but was around R+10 in their previous 3 waves).

Microsoft‘s polling therefore looks way off right now and this poll here is more believable ...

[Frenchrepublican]

6-point swing from 2016 to Biden.

Microsoft‘s poll even has IN a tie today (but was around R+10 in their previous 3 waves).

Microsoft‘s polling therefore looks way off right now and this poll here is more believable ...

Dude, it's a pretty well known fact that polls usually underestimate republicans in Indiana by 6 to 8 points.

[Frenchrepublican]

Very good poll for Trump. In 2016 he never led in Indiana by more than 11 points.

[Pollster]

Indiana is probably the best state in the country for Change Research’s methodology (along with NJ) so I’m glad to see this.

Agree that Trump is probably being underestimated here, but probably less so than a traditional poll. IN-05 could be tight if this winds up being the final margin.

[Frenchrepublican]

Indiana is probably the best state in the country for Change Research’s methodology (along with NJ) so I’m glad to see this.

Agree that Trump is probably being underestimated here, but probably less so than a traditional poll. IN-05 could be tight if this winds up being the final margin.

No, not really

In the 2016 Pres + 2018 Sen races IN-5 was 6 points to the left of Indiana as whole, if Trump wins Indiana by 13 points or more he is assured to win IN-5 by a healthy margin.

[Pollster]

Indiana is probably the best state in the country for Change Research’s methodology (along with NJ) so I’m glad to see this.

Agree that Trump is probably being underestimated here, but probably less so than a traditional poll. IN-05 could be tight if this winds up being the final margin.

No, not really

In the 2016 Pres + 2018 Sen races IN-5 was 6 points to the left of Indiana as whole, if Trump wins Indiana by 13 points or more he is assured to win IN-5 by a healthy margin.

This analysis is overlooking potential conditions on the ground. Hale will likely be running the best funded Democratic campaign this district has seen at the Congressional level, and even Donnelly’s atrocious campaign managed to win here. Don’t get me wrong - I’d expect Hale to lose if the election were held today, but too early to dismiss.

[Frenchrepublican]

Indiana is probably the best state in the country for Change Research’s methodology (along with NJ) so I’m glad to see this.

Agree that Trump is probably being underestimated here, but probably less so than a traditional poll. IN-05 could be tight if this winds up being the final margin.

No, not really

In the 2016 Pres + 2018 Sen races IN-5 was 6 points to the left of Indiana as whole, if Trump wins Indiana by 13 points or more he is assured to win IN-5 by a healthy margin.

This analysis is overlooking potential conditions on the ground. Hale will likely be running the best funded Democratic campaign this district has seen at the Congressional level, and even Donnelly’s atrocious campaign managed to win here. Don’t get me wrong - I’d expect Hale to lose if the election were held today, but too early to dismiss.

Hale will have a lot of money, no doubt about that. But money is not everything, if Trump wins this district it's hard to see how Hale could win considering that in this district you have a good amount of center right people who don't like Trump but have no problem voting for republicans when it's a more traditional kind of republican.

As for Donnelly, you are far too harsh with him, his performance was not bad. He won more votes than any other statewide democratic candidate, he outperformed most state house / House democratic candidates and he ran a energic and well-funded campaign, reaching out to voters who usually don't vote for your party. And his performance in IN-5 proves it, he was everything but a atrocious candidate. I think you're fooling yourself if you believe that Donnelly performance in IN-5 is the new normal and that it will be relatively easy to do better than he did.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They poll an IN race, which is a red state with Pence, safe red state

[ElectionsGuy]

Indiana is probably the best state in the country for Change Research’s methodology (along with NJ) so I’m glad to see this.

Agree that Trump is probably being underestimated here, but probably less so than a traditional poll. IN-05 could be tight if this winds up being the final margin.

No, not really

In the 2016 Pres + 2018 Sen races IN-5 was 6 points to the left of Indiana as whole, if Trump wins Indiana by 13 points or more he is assured to win IN-5 by a healthy margin.

This analysis is overlooking potential conditions on the ground. Hale will likely be running the best funded Democratic campaign this district has seen at the Congressional level, and even Donnelly’s atrocious campaign managed to win here. Don’t get me wrong - I’d expect Hale to lose if the election were held today, but too early to dismiss.

This characterization is not justified. Donnelly's campaign was not atrocious, hardly anyone thought so at the time (because most people thought he would win!), it's more a feeling made up post-election to justify his loss.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Indiana's county map is going to tell quite a lot about what is happening in the Midwest early on during the election. It has that right combination of suburbs, industrial/post industrial areas and rural areas that Trump needs the right mix of to win reelection. There is also the old rule of thumb that Republicans who win by about 20% are probably winning nationwide, though if someone were to break that rule, it would be Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Woody Myers can win the Gov race, Holcomb is at 45 percent

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

This is consistent with Biden +8 at the national level, which does seem to be about where the race is right now.

[Pollster]

Indiana is probably the best state in the country for Change Research’s methodology (along with NJ) so I’m glad to see this.

Agree that Trump is probably being underestimated here, but probably less so than a traditional poll. IN-05 could be tight if this winds up being the final margin.

No, not really

In the 2016 Pres + 2018 Sen races IN-5 was 6 points to the left of Indiana as whole, if Trump wins Indiana by 13 points or more he is assured to win IN-5 by a healthy margin.

This analysis is overlooking potential conditions on the ground. Hale will likely be running the best funded Democratic campaign this district has seen at the Congressional level, and even Donnelly’s atrocious campaign managed to win here. Don’t get me wrong - I’d expect Hale to lose if the election were held today, but too early to dismiss.

Hale will have a lot of money, no doubt about that. But money is not everything, if Trump wins this district it's hard to see how Hale could win considering that in this district you have a good amount of center right people who don't like Trump but have no problem voting for republicans when it's a more traditional kind of republican.

As for Donnelly, you are far too harsh with him, his performance was not bad. He won more votes than any other statewide democratic candidate, he outperformed most state house / House democratic candidates and he ran a energic and well-funded campaign, reaching out to voters who usually don't vote for your party. And his performance in IN-5 proves it, he was everything but a atrocious candidate. I think you're fooling yourself if you believe that Donnelly performance in IN-5 is the new normal and that it will be relatively easy to do better than he did.

To your first point: money holds significantly more weight in districts exactly like this one that have not been organized at the Congressional level before and have not seen competitive general election campaigns in generations, if ever. These voters are not accustomed to seeing issues prosecuted at a local level and specific to their community on a targeted basis. Countless districts in both 2010 and 2018 were narrowed if not flipped entirely for this reason. Also, there are way less of the types of voters you are describing than you think (anywhere in the country, excluding perhaps the Mormon corridor) and if the GOP is relying on the voting behavior you describe (they're not) then they are going to need to make sure the right candidate emerges from the primary. They seem to be consolidating around Spartz, which bodes well for them (it is strange that they're backing a candidate with no vote-getting experience, though that didn't hurt Dems in 2018).

Regarding Donnelly, I am careful not to call him a bad candidate, because he wasn't. He had a near-perfect voting record for the state, secured significant federal funding, raised plenty of money, was an excellent debater, did well in-person, and did do effective outreach to non-Dem voters. He was let down by his campaign (why he hired the team responsible for both HRC's primary loss and Bayh's general election loss is beyond me). His stump speeches and media spent time talking about issues that Democrats lose on, and actively used messaging that turned out GOP base voters. Schumer's people at the SMP tried many, many times to smoke-signal his campaign in the right messaging direction but they didn't bite. He certainly benefited from the national environment and incumbency, and I agree his performance in IN-05 (already razor thin to begin with!) will be hard to match, hence my current prediction that Hale loses.

[Pollster]

Indiana is probably the best state in the country for Change Research’s methodology (along with NJ) so I’m glad to see this.

Agree that Trump is probably being underestimated here, but probably less so than a traditional poll. IN-05 could be tight if this winds up being the final margin.

No, not really

In the 2016 Pres + 2018 Sen races IN-5 was 6 points to the left of Indiana as whole, if Trump wins Indiana by 13 points or more he is assured to win IN-5 by a healthy margin.

This analysis is overlooking potential conditions on the ground. Hale will likely be running the best funded Democratic campaign this district has seen at the Congressional level, and even Donnelly’s atrocious campaign managed to win here. Don’t get me wrong - I’d expect Hale to lose if the election were held today, but too early to dismiss.

This characterization is not justified. Donnelly's campaign was not atrocious, hardly anyone thought so at the time (because most people thought he would win!), it's more a feeling made up post-election to justify his loss.

See last post.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Very good poll for Trump. In 2016 he never led in Indiana by more than 11 points.

John Gregg ran for Gov, this yr a nobody runs

[pbrower2a]

Remember: no Republican nominee has ever won the Electoral College in the last century without winning Indiana by at least 10% (wins including the elections of 2000 and 2016). With less tha n a 10% margin in Indiana the Republican loses Ohio.

This becomes shaky should Indiana go to vote-by-mail, but in such a case so does Indiana.   

[pbrower2a]

6-point swing from 2016 to Biden.

Microsoft‘s poll even has IN a tie today (but was around R+10 in their previous 3 waves).

Microsoft‘s polling therefore looks way off right now and this poll here is more believable ...

Dude, it's a pretty well known fact that polls usually underestimate republicans in Indiana by 6 to 8 points.

Not in an electoral collapse for Trump, which may be happening.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Trump loses OH, he probably wins IN by 9 pts

[wbrocks67]

This is also change research so..

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Safe Republican. Nothing to see here.

IN is slipping back to Obama 2012 numbers, which is good for Uncle Joe.

[UWS]

Safe Republican. Nothing to see here.

Not even Buttigieg would have been able to flip Indiana.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Buttigieg was another Beto candidate running, he was stronger than Beto, but had similar appeal

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Indiana President by Change Research on 2020-04-13

Summary: D: 39%, R: 52%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details