Rate Indiana 2020 Gubernatorial

[Left Wing]

I know this is extremely unlikely to go for Democrats but how safe do people think it is? I think it could have been a lot closer if Indiana Democrats got a better recruit like Bayh or Donnelly.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Red state

[Lechasseur]

Safe R

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Likely R out of abundance of caution

[Frenchrepublican]

Obviously Safe R. Holcomb had a 61/21 approval rate in a (rare) poll done a few months ago and leaked to the HoweyPolitics blog. Even a plurality of democrats approve the job he is doing.

Add to the fact that Holcomb has a 45 to 1 cash advantage over his likely democratic opponent + the lean of the state and it becomes hard to argue that this race is competitive.

[Frenchrepublican]

I know this is extremely unlikely to go for Democrats but how safe do people think it is? I think it could have been a lot closer if Indiana Democrats got a better recruit like Bayh or Donnelly.

Bay lost by 10 and Donnely lost by 6 (in a D wave), why do you think they would have made things close ?
Holcomb is a popular governor in a deep red state, he was always going to coast to reelection.

[Blair]

I'm not sure Bayh counts as a good oppontent after the scandal about him not even living in the state

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bayh lost a winnable seat in 2016, he isnt viable

[S019]

Likely R, I don't think Holcomb loses, but this is a gubernatorial race, which means that odd things can happen.

[Astatine]

Safe R, new (and only) poll has Holcomb up by 20.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Obvious Safe GOP is obvious, but to review for the people in the back:

(1) Time has not been kind to IN Dems. The Southern Indiana counties that were once the backbone of a successful statewide bid are now solidly in the Republican column thanks to Blue Dogs either dying off or jumping on the Trump bandwagon in 2016. Democrats have made some gains in the suburbs, but not enough to make up for hemorrhaging support among rural voters since 2010, and places like Carmel —while trending left —remain essentially Republican towns.

(2) IN Dems are a mess. It doesn't help that our nominee is a guy nobody's ever heard of, but even if we were able to recruit Jesus to run on the gubernatorial line, Zody would still find a way to lose.

(3) Holcomb is actually a reasonably competent governor. He's followed the Mitch Daniels playbook of mostly staying away from controversial social issues and pursuing a conservative (but not unhinged) fiscal policy of the sort that Hoosiers like. Even disregarding the above two points, there's no reason to think Holcomb won't win reelection by double digits.

Drafting a retired politician-turned-lobbyist who last held elected office more than a decade ago would not change the calculus of this race. Holcomb will coast to victory in November; frankly, I'll be shocked if Myers clears 40%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Woody Allen can make a name for himself running in IN Gov

[Xing]

Unless Holcomb’s popularity tanks, Safe R. And even if it did, he’d probably still win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Baron Hill or Donnelly or a blue dog would win than Woody Allen

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

(3) Holcomb is actually a reasonably competent governor. He's followed the Mitch Daniels playbook of mostly staying away from controversial social issues and pursuing a conservative (but not unhinged) fiscal policy of the sort that Hoosiers like. Even disregarding the above two points, there's no reason to think Holcomb won't win reelection by double digits.

^^this tbh. As much as I dislike him and the INGOP, they have a "good government" image and are in tune with the majority of the Hoosier electorate. He will coast to victory.

[Mr. Morden]

Woody Allen can make a name for himself running in IN Gov

If he doesn't run for Indiana governor, then he's doomed to die in obscurity. 

[libertpaulian]

Safe R.  Indiana Dems' bench is all but decimated.

[Jay 🏳️‍⚧️]

Probably going to be Safe R.

[ElectionsGuy]

Very Safe R.

[Orwell]

Likely R, this was close in 2012 and 2016 due to Pence sh**t*** and the Dems nominating a good nominee, but I think Holcomb+12

[Gracile]

Safe R, Holcomb will easily be reelected.

[MT Treasurer]

I’m generally much less bullish on Republican prospects in red states than most other posters here, but this is definitely Safe R (only ND is a safer R hold IMO). Holcomb wins 59/38, but I could see him barely crossing 60%.

Also (off-topic), but I think Indiana is a very underrated state. I know a lot of Hoosiers for some reason.

[libertpaulian]

I’m generally much less bullish on Republican prospects in red states than most other posters here, but this is definitely Safe R (only ND is a safer R hold IMO). Holcomb wins 59/38, but I could see him barely crossing 60%.

Also (off-topic), but I think Indiana is a very underrated state. I know a lot of Hoosiers for some reason.

How would you (or anyone else really) rate the state if Donnelly or Buttigieg was the nominee?

[MT Treasurer]

I’m generally much less bullish on Republican prospects in red states than most other posters here, but this is definitely Safe R (only ND is a safer R hold IMO). Holcomb wins 59/38, but I could see him barely crossing 60%.

Also (off-topic), but I think Indiana is a very underrated state. I know a lot of Hoosiers for some reason.

How would you (or anyone else really) rate the state if Donnelly or Buttigieg was the nominee?

Other people like Truman and Clarko are more familiar with IN politics, but I really don’t see how Buttigieg or Donnelly would make this competitive. Buttigieg isn’t viable statewide and Donnelly lost as an incumbent in a Democratic wave year, there’s no way either one would beat a popular Holcomb.

I honestly think IN is one of the toughest red states for Democrats to crack in the Trump era. It’s almost like a mirror image of IL just with the parties reversed.

[Lechasseur]

I’m generally much less bullish on Republican prospects in red states than most other posters here, but this is definitely Safe R (only ND is a safer R hold IMO). Holcomb wins 59/38, but I could see him barely crossing 60%.

Also (off-topic), but I think Indiana is a very underrated state. I know a lot of Hoosiers for some reason.

What about Utah? I don't see Utah being competitive in the slightest either