New Hampshire 2020 Redistricting
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Author Topic: New Hampshire 2020 Redistricting  (Read 12029 times)
lfromnj
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« Reply #50 on: November 03, 2021, 04:35:40 PM »


NH map

+2 Trump.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #51 on: November 03, 2021, 04:39:18 PM »

Surprised they went for it. Ah, well.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #52 on: November 03, 2021, 04:42:59 PM »
Sununu months ago said he wouldn't sign a gerrymander.
Perhaps this is a show designed to improve his prospects in a statewide election by giving him a feather in his cap.
Who knows?
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Brother Jonathan
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« Reply #53 on: November 03, 2021, 04:44:58 PM »
This is a pretty drastic change to the map. Would not be shocked if it got watered down a bit under pressure from the Senate/Governor, but at the same time, the House caucus might be too insistent on it to make a difference. Sununu in particular might try and win some political points by coming down on them for it given some of his public statements recently.

Quote from: Southern Delegate Punxsutawney Phil on November 03, 2021, 04:42:59 PM
Sununu months ago said he wouldn't sign a gerrymander.
Perhaps this is a show designed to improve his prospects in a statewide election by giving him a feather in his cap.
Who knows?

I honestly don't know if the NH House GOP has that sort of discipline. Would not be shocked if they simply did not care and decided to push for it anyway, which could make Sununu's position a lot more complicated (especially if Bolduc becomes a more serious threat on his right flank).
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Thunder98
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« Reply #54 on: November 03, 2021, 04:48:42 PM »
Here's my map that is very similar to GOP Proposed map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8f8ba217-dd67-4baf-9f56-451920417e3b

2020

NH-1: Trump +1.4%
NH-2: Biden +16.5%

2016-2020 Composite
NH-1: R+16.2%
NH-2: D+3


2020 Prez


2016-2020 Composite
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Stuart98
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« Reply #55 on: November 03, 2021, 04:50:02 PM »
Here's their map in DRA.

The 1st is Trump +1.7 2020, Trump +9.2 2016.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #56 on: November 03, 2021, 04:50:32 PM »
The big question is, what do bigwigs in the NH State Senate think of this map? Their support is needed to pass this after all.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #57 on: November 03, 2021, 04:51:53 PM »
NH-1 is Trump+1.7.   I actually don't think it'll last the decade given NH's overall trend, but they'll probably flip it in 2022 which is all they care about.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #58 on: November 03, 2021, 04:54:56 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2021, 05:06:25 PM by lfromnj »
Quote from: Southern Delegate Punxsutawney Phil on November 03, 2021, 04:50:32 PM
The big question is, what do bigwigs in the NH State Senate think of this map? Their support is needed to pass this after all.

Yeah it is weird the house came out with this first instead of the senate. The house seemed way more citizen based than pure pols. I would have just expected them  to pass whatever the senate passed.
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Spectator
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« Reply #59 on: November 03, 2021, 04:57:20 PM »
Right now they have a shot at flipping both NH seats, but this gerrymander might end up accidentally saving Kuster.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #60 on: November 03, 2021, 05:00:44 PM »
I saw someone saying that the Democrats should now regret gerrymandering Illinois because of this map on Twitter. I think redistricting is the political institution of the greatest importance which is ignored by the greatest number, and on top of that a lot of those who do pay attention seem to have zero critical thinking skills.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #61 on: November 03, 2021, 05:51:48 PM »
A 2-seat swing state is a pretty dumb place to gerrymander (your only choice is between having 2 swingy seats or one seat that's safe for you and one that's safe for your opponent), but I'm not surprised Republicans bothered anyway.
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Devils30
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« Reply #62 on: November 03, 2021, 11:45:20 PM »
If the Dems get a trifecta in NH in a few years, curious if they will do a mid-decade undoing of this.
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David Hume
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« Reply #63 on: November 04, 2021, 01:00:07 AM »
Quote from: Southern Delegate Punxsutawney Phil on November 03, 2021, 04:42:59 PM
Sununu months ago said he wouldn't sign a gerrymander.
Perhaps this is a show designed to improve his prospects in a statewide election by giving him a feather in his cap.
Who knows?
This is not a very ugly gerrymander, especially after the IL map. Besides, IL governor claimed he will veto ugly gerrymander before.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #64 on: November 05, 2021, 07:45:29 PM »
Gerrymandering NH and ME is a dumb task. Even in my FAIR maps, I keep NH and ME relatively where they are now because there just is no point.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #65 on: November 16, 2021, 03:02:48 PM »
https://twitter.com/norwood270/status/1460688280714940419
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #66 on: November 16, 2021, 03:09:17 PM »
What grounds would the NH SC likely use to strike down a GOPmander of the congressional districts, if they did so?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #67 on: November 17, 2021, 09:19:39 AM »
NH R's are going for it.  This map just passed committee on a party-line vote in the lower house.  This NH-01 is 2X Trump and R+4 PVI, NH-02 is D+5. 

https://htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/files/congressional-maps-reps-wilhelm-and-griffin-2-1635979653.pdf

IMO this could backfire as Republicans will likely be winning NH statewide soon. 

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BoiseBoy
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« Reply #68 on: November 17, 2021, 11:29:47 AM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on November 17, 2021, 09:19:39 AM
NH R's are going for it.  This map just passed committee on a party-line vote in the lower house.  This NH-01 is 2X Trump and R+4 PVI, NH-02 is D+5. 

https://htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/files/congressional-maps-reps-wilhelm-and-griffin-2-1635979653.pdf

IMO this could backfire as Republicans will likely be winning NH statewide soon. 


They're going for the least change? Fine by me.
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bagelman
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« Reply #69 on: November 17, 2021, 11:53:18 AM »
Quote from: BoiseBoy on November 17, 2021, 11:29:47 AM
Quote from: Skill and Chance on November 17, 2021, 09:19:39 AM
NH R's are going for it.  This map just passed committee on a party-line vote in the lower house.  This NH-01 is 2X Trump and R+4 PVI, NH-02 is D+5. 

https://htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/files/congressional-maps-reps-wilhelm-and-griffin-2-1635979653.pdf

IMO this could backfire as Republicans will likely be winning NH statewide soon. 


They're going for the least change? Fine by me.

The top map is the old map, new one is further down. Giving up any hope of flipping NH-2 to secure NH-1.
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BoiseBoy
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« Reply #70 on: November 17, 2021, 12:07:14 PM »
Quote from: bagelman on November 17, 2021, 11:53:18 AM
Quote from: BoiseBoy on November 17, 2021, 11:29:47 AM
Quote from: Skill and Chance on November 17, 2021, 09:19:39 AM
NH R's are going for it.  This map just passed committee on a party-line vote in the lower house.  This NH-01 is 2X Trump and R+4 PVI, NH-02 is D+5. 

https://htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/files/congressional-maps-reps-wilhelm-and-griffin-2-1635979653.pdf

IMO this could backfire as Republicans will likely be winning NH statewide soon. 


They're going for the least change? Fine by me.

The top map is the old map, new one is further down. Giving up any hope of flipping NH-2 to secure NH-1.
Oh, I didn't see it. Shoot.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #71 on: December 30, 2021, 03:52:56 PM »
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Nyvin
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« Reply #72 on: December 30, 2021, 05:59:17 PM »
Interestingly, but I guess unsurprisingly, the Democrats proposed a mostly least change map, except the districts in Hillsborough County.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #73 on: December 30, 2021, 06:02:06 PM »
Is any more than two SDs in Manchester really necessary?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #74 on: December 30, 2021, 07:35:05 PM »
It's just funny that R's are going to town in NH of all places after showing restraint in so many red states.
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