New Hampshire 2020 Redistricting

[muon2]

If the NH Pubs don't want to cause too much backlash, I would expect them to keep the general split of the state but perhaps move Manchester over to CD 2 and replace it with other more favorable towns. With about an hour's effort I was able to push the 2012/2016 PVI in CD 1 up to R+4 while keeping the basic geography of the current CDs. No towns are chopped and the deviation is down to 4.

[Nyvin]

Pappas lives in Manchester and Manchester has been in NH-1 literally forever.   I mean, Republicans can do what they want but moving Manchester to NH-2 is a bold move.

[muon2]

Pappas lives in Manchester and Manchester has been in NH-1 literally forever.   I mean, Republicans can do what they want but moving Manchester to NH-2 is a bold move.

If they want to be less bold and keep Manchester in CD 1 it would cost them a point of PVI.

[Nyvin]

Looking at the state senate, it seems R's can effectively pack the D's down to 10 districts, but that doesn't actually mean a guaranteed majority.   The D packs will be

1 Lebanon/Hanover
1 Keene
1 Concord
2 Manchester
2 Nashua
3 Seacoast

Their problem will be western Hillborough, especially if it keeps trending D.  There's really no way to chop up the areas that vote D.  Nashua is to the southeast, Manchester to east, New London area to the north, Keene/Monadnock area to the west, and western Hillsborough already votes D when looking at the 2020 presidential numbers.

They could "try" to only make 2 seacoast districts, but that would endanger SD-23 and they'd risk giving the D's 4 seats instead.  In the map I made SD-23 is only 53.9% Trump to 44.5% Biden.

This is what I came up with,  really trying to guess what NHGOP will do

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3c594804-cdc8-4d67-8993-f179b75dc749

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Pappas lives in Manchester and Manchester has been in NH-1 literally forever.   I mean, Republicans can do what they want but moving Manchester to NH-2 is a bold move.

Doesn't NH require least-change in its CDs?

[Nyvin]

Pappas lives in Manchester and Manchester has been in NH-1 literally forever.   I mean, Republicans can do what they want but moving Manchester to NH-2 is a bold move.

Doesn't NH require least-change in its CDs?

There's literally no state laws regarding the congressional districts at all (they aren't even mentioned in the state constitution).

There's a few paragraphs about the state legislative districts, mostly they can't divide towns and wards and have to be equal population, but that's about it.

Otherwise it's a free for all,  not including traditional norms and all.

[SevenEleven]

Fair Map^TM

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I always thought the fairest map would have a compact southeastern district but that's just me.

[SevenEleven]

I went for competitiveness given its NH and there's only two districts.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I went for competitiveness given its NH and there's only two districts.

Both of mine are essentially 50-50.

[SevenEleven]

I went for competitiveness given its NH and there's only two districts.

Both of mine are essentially 50-50.

Not bad, not bad. Looks like towns are kept whole as well. I like it.

[Continential]

This is my second DRA map.


District 1 is Republicans 51.9% Democrats 45.0% and District 2 is Democrats 51.2% Republicans 45.6%
source

[Skill and Chance]

That's going to be a dummymander by the end of the decade with that much of the suburban MA border area in NH-01.  It's probably better for the GOP to put everything north of Hanover in NH-01 and make NH-02 L-shaped from Hanover-Keene-Nashua and maybe even Portsmouth if that is viable. 

[lfromnj]

Challenge draw a map that has both 2 Clinton districts that also voted for Hassan in 2016.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

If you get really messy, its possible to draw a whole Towns Trump + 12 in 2016 and Trump + 5 in 2020 seat in New Hampshire. Not going to post the map here just in case someone in the NH Republican party is seeing this though.

[Torie]

He is my Pubmander submission without chopping towns or cities that seems the least ugly, while of course still being ugly.



And another slightly less nasty looking which might actually be in play perhaps.

[Former President tack50]

Challenge draw a map that has both 2 Clinton districts that also voted for Hassan in 2016.

Interestingly this is a challenge that sounds hard but is surprisingly easy. You don't even need some horrible gerrymander, even a clean map will do



https://davesredistricting.org/join/ef9f8153-aad5-4bea-bb9e-312d509ffd4a

The blue district voted Hillary Clinton by 0.6% and Hassan by 0.2%

The green district voted Hillary Clinton by 0.1% (464 votes) and Hassan by under 0.1% (154 votes)

[Spectator]

The most Republican district I can make possible is a Trump 2020 51-45 seat that is extremely ugly and gives the Maryland seats a run for their money. Papas would probably be forced to run for Governor in that case. No shot he’d be able to hold onto a seat that red.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/AdamSextonWMUR/status/1413588438037590017

Honestly I believe this similar to 2010 Indiana. Probably a reverse of whatever Montana draws.

[Roll Roons]

This is what I came up with:
https://davesredistricting.org/join/e56933aa-96f3-486c-9c3d-78bff76dfad2

Cleans up some county splits that I think are unnecessary, but it's otherwise quite similar to the current map. NH-01 now includes all of Rockingham, Strafford, Belknap and Carroll plus Manchester and a couple towns in Merrimack to balance population. NH-02 includes Hillsborough (except Manchester), most of Merrimack and all of Cheshire, Sullivan, Grafton and Coos.

NH-01 would be perennially competitive, and NH-02 would lean Dem most of the time, but be within reach for Republicans in a good year.

[Nyvin]

This is what I came up with:
https://davesredistricting.org/join/e56933aa-96f3-486c-9c3d-78bff76dfad2

Cleans up some county splits that I think are unnecessary, but it's otherwise quite similar to the current map. NH-01 now includes all of Rockingham, Strafford, Belknap and Carroll plus Manchester and a couple towns in Merrimack to balance population. NH-02 includes Hillsborough (except Manchester), most of Merrimack and all of Cheshire, Sullivan, Grafton and Coos.

NH-01 would be perennially competitive, and NH-02 would lean Dem most of the time, but be within reach for Republicans in a good year.

I honestly could see this map being passed, I think it's probably the best the NHGOP can expect or close to it without going crazy.

NH-1 would be competitive, NH-2 is probably out of reach for them in all but a mega wave year, which they really seem to be fine with.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2efb25f1-80eb-4b42-a73d-4a10dfe0e3a0
State Senate map

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Given the Rs won a trifecta, I had a go at updating their State Senate gerrymander. There's 8 Dem packs and 2 more seats which should lean Dem. Trump won 13 districts in 2020 and 15 in 2016. The tipping point seat for an R majority is around 5 points right of the state, so the majority should only be threatened in very blue years like 2018.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1d66f9ff-db27-4654-bbf8-d752e02edb3b

[Devils30]

Part of the GOP's biggest issue is the eastern part of the state is trending Dem the fastest.

[S019]

Just quickly put this together: https://davesredistricting.org/join/2bda7a29-7313-4d0c-9c87-fda1bd032af6

Pretty solid 1-1 map, District 1 was Trump+5 in 2020 and Trump+9 in 2016, whichever of Pappas/Kuster runs here, probably won't have much of a chance.