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October 23, 2020, 06:47:07 PM
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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections
  2020 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  North Carolina (PPP) - Roy Cooper +14
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Author Topic: North Carolina (PPP) - Roy Cooper +14  (Read 896 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: April 16, 2020, 07:50:31 AM »

Roy Cooper (D) 50%
Dan Forrest (R) 36%

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/NCResultsApril2020.pdf
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #1 on: April 16, 2020, 09:33:31 AM »

This is likely overstating the final margin, but Cooper being at 50% already is a very good sign
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #2 on: April 16, 2020, 09:48:22 AM »

Likely D.

Hope Cooper provides at least some coattails to Biden and Cunningham. He will for sure outrun both.
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Holmes
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« Reply #3 on: April 16, 2020, 09:52:06 AM »

Likely D.

Hope Cooper provides at least some coattails to Biden and Cunningham. He will for sure outrun both.

There are no coattails going up the ballot.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #4 on: April 16, 2020, 09:58:10 AM »

Likely D.

Hope Cooper provides at least some coattails to Biden and Cunningham. He will for sure outrun both.

There are no coattails going up the ballot.

Not in the technical sense, but Cooper may help Biden more than vise versa.
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Biden +3 in Texas
dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #5 on: April 16, 2020, 12:20:50 PM »

Likely D.

Hope Cooper provides at least some coattails to Biden and Cunningham. He will for sure outrun both.

There are no coattails going up the ballot.
Not sure if I agree.....in particular if a candidate has a strong ground game, they can help generate higher turnout across the ballot. Think about Rob Portman's operation in 2016 in Ohio, this probably helped Trump by a few points, in a closer race it could've made all of the difference.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #6 on: April 16, 2020, 01:20:02 PM »

Cooper is safe but House effect
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Jayde
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« Reply #7 on: April 17, 2020, 08:43:12 PM »

Even with the house effect Cooper is safe in this poll. Probably will win by a lot less than 14 though.
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Southern Governor Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #8 on: April 17, 2020, 08:44:11 PM »

Even with the house effect Cooper is safe in this poll. Probably will win by a lot less than 14 though.
What is the usual house effect for PPP?
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Virginiá
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« Reply #9 on: April 17, 2020, 09:08:39 PM »

Even with the house effect Cooper is safe in this poll. Probably will win by a lot less than 14 though.
What is the usual house effect for PPP?

B pollster with a D+0.3 bias according to 538's pollster ratings.

Doesn't necessarily mean it is accurate, though.
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Jayde
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« Reply #10 on: April 18, 2020, 07:09:00 PM »

D+0.3 is a lot less than I expected honestly.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #11 on: April 19, 2020, 03:53:04 AM »

Even with the house effect Cooper is safe in this poll. Probably will win by a lot less than 14 though.
What is the usual house effect for PPP?

5 points, Cooper is probably up 6 points
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #12 on: April 21, 2020, 05:57:00 PM »

Cooper will probably only win by 10.5 or so, but this is a pretty good poll.
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