The Iron Frau - A German Politics Timeline

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

The Iron Frau
A German Politics Timeline

Angela Merkel
Armin Linnartz [CC BY-SA 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

September 22nd, 2013

There was little doubt that the Christian-conservative Union parties, whose leader, Angela Merkel, sought re-election, would win with quite a lead. But nobody expected by how much support the German people would grant Merkel a third term as German chancellor.

The 6 pm exit polls shocked the nation. Union Parties at a staggering 42 percent. Social Democrats presumably below 26 percent. Greens and Left Party both presumably between 8 and 9 percent. The Free Democrats, the longest governing party in the history of the Federal Republic and Merkel’s coalition partner, seemed to have dropped out of parliament for the first time, as it fell short of the required 5 percent. And the Alternative for Germany, a new national-conservative party, was about to gain a respectable result but was not really a threat.

But when the shock was processed and the first results came in, the math started. What would these results mean for Germany? Who would join Merkel’s government? Would she even govern? Would the SPD dare to form a leftist coalition? Or would she even need a coalition partner?

No, that can’t be! The last time a single party won a majority of seats was in the 1950s! Germany was always governed by coalitions. But as the results poured in and the seats were calculated … Union 5 seats short … Union 2 seats short … Union 2 seats majority … Union one seat short … Union 3 seats short … Union one seat short … the result was a majority of five.

Merkel’s CDU/CSU would gain 315 seats of 619 seats total. She would be the first chancellor since Konrad Adenauer to lead an absolute majority all by herself – the first chancellor in two generations.

The power would be all hers.
But Angela Merkel was in a panic.

Author's Note and Explanation
Merkel's third term is probably her most remarkable term (2013-2017). She started as a calm, somewhat boring but popular chancellor and ended as a very polarizing figure. The political right hates her due to her handling of the refugee crisis, the world admires her as she is hailed as the new leader of the free world. In 2013, she won re-election with a remarkable result, but her coalition partner dropped out of parliament. She subsequently formed a grand coalition with the social democrats, as she was very few seats short of a majority. That is the thing I will alter. I will ask the question: What happens when Merkel's Union parties gain an absolute majority? How would the German government be different? What will the effect be on Europe and on the world? How would Merkel deal with all the international crises? I try to write this timeline as accessible as possible for all who are not that well informed about German politics, and I will happily answer all questions that arise when reading this timeline. Have fun!
T A B L E   O F   C O N T E N T S
PART I (September 22nd 2013 - October 1st 2014): The absolute majority, Mützenich becomes SPD-leader, the European elections, the NSA scandal, the Crimean crisis, the first election successes of the AfD, the rightward drift of CDU and CSU
PART II: following soon...

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

good start for a TL! this is a scenario I've pondered multiple times beforehand.
How does the SPD react to this? What about the FDP or Greens?
And ouch...is 310/619 close...

Thank you! And you spotted the first typo. It should be 315/619, which is still close.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Does the AfD gain seats?

In reality and in this timeline, not in the 2013-election. The alteration will be very minimal. I have shifted just a few seats and very few percentage points to the Union parties, just enough to grant them an absolute majority. Remember that the absolute majority was only possible because ~15% of the vote were not represented in the Bundestag. I even some election coverage in 2013 temporarily projecting slim absolute majorities for the Union, so this is not a far fetched idea. I will provide full results in the next post.

I also just did the math to calculate the results needed for an event in which both the AfD gain seats AND the Union gains an absolute majority. The CDU/CSU would have needed ~45% (IRL 41.5%).

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

PART I

Results of the 18th election to the Bundestag, September 22nd, 2013

Christian Conservative Union Parties (CDU/CSU) ~ 42.5% (+8.7%) ~ 315 seats
Christian Democratic Union (CDU): 34.6%; Christian Social Union (CSU) [Bavaria only]: 7.9%
Social Democratic Party (SPD) ~ 25.2% (+2.2%) ~ 184 seats
The Left (LINKE) ~ 8.3% (-3.6%) ~ 61 seats
Alliance 90/Greens (B’90/Grüne) ~ 8.1% (-2.6%) ~ 59 seats

Below the threshold (5%):

Free Democratic Party (FDP) ~ 4.6% (-10.0%)
Alternative for Germany (AfD) ~ 4.3% (new)

September 23rd, 2013: Vice-Chancellor Philipp Rösler announced his immediate resignation as leader of the FDP following its historic election defeat. “I want to apologize to all of our members for failing to promote the liberal cause, the cause for freedom.” The FDP’s top candidate, Rainer Brüderle, announced the end of his political career. “The FDP needs a fundamental change that goes beyond the optics.”

September 23rd, 2013: Although it has lost 3.6 percent of votes, the LEFT is satisfied with its election result. “We have withstood the polarization between Union and SPD,” Co-Leader Katja Kipping stated. Parliamentary Leader Gregor Gysi said: “We are now the third-strongest political force in this country. This is an enormous success.”

September 23rd, 2013: After 11 years as co-leader of Alliance’90/Greens, Claudia Roth has announced her resignation, following a disappointing election result. Renate Künast, co-leader of the parliamentary group, has also announced her resignation. Their respective co-leaders, Cem Özdemir as party leader and Jürgen Trittin as top candidate and parliamentary leader, have not yet indicated that they would step back.

September 23rd, 2013: Bernd Lucke, co-leader of the AfD, called the party’s election result an “enormous success” and showed optimism regarding the European and regional elections next year.

September 23rd, 2013: SPD-Leader Sigmar Gabriel raised eyebrows when he stated that the “SPD is ready to serve and wants to take political responsibility.” The SPD’s failed candidate for chancellor, Peer Steinbrück, commented: “I think it would not be a good idea for the SPD not enter a grand coalition under these circumstances. At least I wont.” Gabriel later clarified his comments, stating that “the SPD is ready to take responsibility, but we see that Angela Merkel and the Union have the mandate.”

September 23rd, 2013

Angela

On the day after the election, the CDU party committee asked Merkel what the next steps should look like. She did not know an answer. No, that can’t be possible, she thought, how could she, a girl who grew up in the Eastern German dictatorial regime and who was belittled when she entered Chancellor Kohl’s government, who was caricatured all her life, who had to stand her ground against the men of German conservative politics, be able to push aside all the members of the old West German conservative guard, be elected the first female chancellor of Germany, and become the crisis manager of the nation? How could she become “Mutti” - “mommy”?

Merkel was not a risk-taker. Merkel always took her time. And Merkel always wanted to play safe. Always wanted to govern by consensus. She liked to share power, because that meant that she could share blame. She was a conservative, but by no means an ideologist. She was a rational centrist, a moderate, a moderator. A technocrat. In her two terms, she had to deal with two vastly different coalition partners. From 2005 to 2009 with the center-left Social Democrats in a grand coalition, and from 2009 to 2013 with the market-loving Free Democratic Party. For her, both worked just fine. But now, forming a coalition was pointless.

Horst

When Horst Seehofer was asked by a journalist whether the Union would govern alone or form a coalition, he answered: “If I didn’t want as much Union as possible, I wouldn’t be in the Union.” Seehofer had all the right to resent the formation of a new coalition. After all, he was in the position Merkel was exactly a week ago. He was leader of Merkel’s Bavarian sister party, the Christian-Social Union – not a regional branch of her party, but a whole different party, engaging in electoral pacts and bound together in government and in opposition with the CDU since the early days of the republic. Since 2008, Seehofer also was the Bavarian prime minister.

For him and the CSU, coalitions were not just an annoying necessity, they were a sign of weakness. In 2008, when his party called on his help, it had just lost the absolute majority it had held in the Barvarian parliament for decades. For five years, Seehofer had to share power with the Bavarian FDP, which had for decades only occasionally made it into the Bavarian parliament. But a week ago, Seehofer’s new populist-conservative CSU regained the majority. Seehofer did not even spend a second about forming a coalition. That was the way it should be. He didn’t understand why Merkel was struggling. Yes, the five vote majority was rather slim, but both Merkel and Seehofer had their parties behind their backs.

It is only natural that Seehofer resented the idea of forming a coalition on a national level. After all, there was not a full set of options, as there were only three parties left, and there were all, well, to the Union’s left. The CSU was notoriously more right-wing than the CDU. The LEFT Party was no option. Those were the socialists. The grubby urchins. The soviet lovers. Then, there were the Greens. There had never been in a coalition with the Union on a national level. That was not the time for such an experiment. Sure, they have moved significantly to the center in recent decades, but why make experiments when everything is so safe? Lastly, there was the SPD. They still felt traumatized after their devastating performance in the 2009 election which they blamed on the grand coalition with Merkel. If the SPD wanted to sell a potential grand coalition to their members, they would have to fight hard in the negotiations. They would claim important ministries such as finance, economy, interior, work and social security. Steinmeier, the German’s favorite social democrat, would return as foreign minister. And they would push for their leftist ideas: a minimum wage, federal rent control, gay marriage.

For Merkel, a coalition was more than politics. It was about governing by majority. It was about inclusion. In the socialist east, she had experience one-party-rule. And coalition were safer (five seats, she often thought, five seats). But Seehofer did not want to hear that. “The CSU will not join a coalition”, he said to Merkel. “We don’t need a coalition. The German people wanted the Union. And they should get the Union.”

The last word was spoken.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

September 24th, 2013: Hessian Prime Minister Volker Bouffier (CDU) is elaborating possible governing options. The Hessian regional elections, which took place parallel to the federal elections, produced no clear majority. The CDU-FDP government failed to secure a majority in the regional parliament. His CDU will hold talks with the significantly strengthened SPD and the slightly weakened Greens.
September 24th, 2013: The President of the Bundestag, Norbert Lammert, has announced that the new parliament will convene on October 7th, 2013. The constitution requires a new parliament to convene within a month after the election. In recent elections, this time span has always been fully exhausted in order to facilitate government building. Lammert argued that this was not necessary this time and that the new Bundestag could convene earlier.
September 24th, 2013: Christian Lindner has announced his intention to run for the leadership of the FDP. Former Leader Philipp Rösler has supported the candidacy of the 34 year old former general secretary.
September 25th, 2013: Jürgen Trittin has announced his resignation as parliamentary leader of the Greens. His co-leader, Renate Künast, has declared her intention to resign yesterday. Their successors will presumably be Trittin’s fellow top-candidate Katrin Göring-Eckard and the party-leftist Anton Hofreiter. Volker Kauder (CDU), Frank-Walter Steinmeier (SPD) and Gregor Gysi (LINKE) have secured the support for re-election as parliamentary leaders of their respective parties.
September 25th, 2013: Andrea Nahles, general secretary of the SPD, clarified the position of her party. “The SPD will be the leader of the opposition,” she stated.

September 26th , 2013

Sigmar

“So do you want to run again?”, Martin Schulz asked him. Sigmar Gabriel was in serious doubts about that. After all – who should vote for him?

Sigmar Gabriel became the leader of the Social Democratic Party in 2009 after its hurtful election loss. He took the party into opposition. He sought a balance between the pragmatic third-way social democracy that made Schröder chancellor in the late 90s and the new-found love for left-wing policies that was needed to form an authentic antithesis to the conservative-liberal Union/FDP government. In 2013, he did not run for chancellor. He knew he had no chance and sent Steinbrück instead. Peer Steinbrück was the finance minister under Merkel during the financial crash. He was a known and trusted face. But he was also the right of the party. He had to defend an election program that was notably left. And the Northern German was seen as often offhand, clumsy, undiplomatic, grim-faced, uncharismatic. The only social democrat more grim-faced and uncharismatic was Sigmar Gabriel himself. The result were 25.2 percent. Embarrassing. Especially in a year in which the proud SPD celebrated its 150th birthday.

Gabriel’s route was clear: to lead a high profile ministry in a Steinbrück government, to earn the trust of the German people and to take over the chancellorship once Steinbrück is too old (Gabriel was 13 years younger). When it came apparent that Steinbrück had no chance against Merkel due to her insurmountable lead in the polls, he altered his plan: make a Union-FDP-government impossible, earn a respectable election result for the SPD, join a grand coalition under Merkel, occupy a high profile ministry, earn the trust of the German people and run against Merkel in 2017. Now, that path was blocked by exactly five Union-MPs.

And he had no justification for leading the party, either. Martin Schulz, the president of the European Parliament and the SPD’s expert on European matters, was Gabriel’s only real ally. His relationship to the SPD’s general secretary, Andrea Nahles, was bad from the start. She was too feisty, too raspy, too loud, too far left. Steinmeier, the former foreign minister and the leader of the parliamentary SPD, was too popular, too folksy. He didn’t trust his deputy leaders, especially Hannelore Kraft, the prime minister of North-Rhine-Westphalia, and Olaf Scholz, the first mayor of Hamburg. They gained remarkably good election results and Gabriel knew of their ambitions. Additionally, Gabriel was not very well liked by SPD-MPs. Many thought he was unreliably, short-tempered, and that his arrogance was a threat to the party.

And in December, the party convention would decide whether he would be re-elected for two years.

But he was still Gabriel. Gabriel knew how to electrify an audience. He was a fighter. And he knew he had earned his place.

“Yes, I will”, he said.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Hoping for the Grune Surge to lead to a Green government here

It will be quite interesting to elaborate how the Green-surge plays out in this scenario. IMO their strong position was supported by the fact that the SPD, being in two grand coalitions, was not able to authentically claim the role as the main center-left party. I think it will be crucial how SPD and Greens behave after the 2017-election in this scenario, which was in reality quite a disappointment for both parties.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

September 27th, 2013: Outgoing Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle (FDP) praised the members of the UN Security Council for their joint resolution on the Syrian civil war, denouncing attacks on civilians.
September 27th, 2013: Failed chancellor-candidate Peer Steinbrück announced that while remaining member of the Bundestag, he will not run for other offices. Steinbrück was prime minister of North-Rhine-Westphalia from 2002 to 2005 and federal minister for finance from 2005 to 2009.
September 27th, 2013: Simone Peter, former environment minister in the Saarland, will run unopposed to succeed Claudia Roth as co-leader of Alliance 90/Greens at the party convention in October.
September 28th, 2013: Baden-Württembergain Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann (Green) has criticized top-candidate Jürgen Trittin for running a too-far-left-election campaign. “The Greens must realize that the economy is not the enemy, but the ally,” he stated.
September 29th, 2013: Federal President Joachim Gauck has urged Angela Merkel and Horst Seehofer to swiftly form a government.

September 29th, 2013

Angela

The days after the election were not remotely like Merkel was used to. Usually, after a week or so of political bantering, the parties would come together and discuss the formation of a coalition, first in a small committee, then in various subcommittees, then in one large committee, and then the parties had to approve and sign a coalition treaty. Four years ago, it took the CDU 31 days to form a coalition with the CSU and the FDP. In 2005, in took 65 days to form a government. This time, everything was set and done from day one.

Except it wasn’t.

Merkel sat together with Seehofer, the leader of the CSU, as well as with the general secretaries of their respective parties: Herman Gröhe for the CDU and Alexander Dobrindt for the CSU – two party loyalists who both managed successful election campaigns and who both aspired government positions. The relationship between Merkel and Seehofer was alright. Sometimes feisty in public, but in private, both knew that their combined political force was unstoppable when they saw eye to eye.

Before the election, both parties published a joint election platform. No bold ideas, no polarizing policy. Normal conservative CDU/CSU-stuff. The route was clear. Then, there was the issue of ministries. In the Merkel II government, the CDU hat 7 ministers, the CSU had 3, the FDP had five.  Merkel’s plan was to split the FDP-ministries. The CDU should, in total, receive 10, the CSU five.

“That is not how we would like to distribute the FDP-ministries,” Seehofer announced.

“So, CDU 9, CSU 6?” Gröhe asked.

“No”, Seehofer stated. “We want all of them. CDU 7, CSU 8. And we want to talk about the road toll. We want to have that.”

For Merkel, the road toll was the CSU’s latest pipe dream. In Bavaria, they campaigned on the introduction of a road toll, but solely for foreigners. If we have to pay a road toll in Austria, the CSU had written on an election poster, then the Austrian should pay a road toll in Bavaria. Merkel found this logic so profoundly stupid and incompatible with EU-law that she declined to implement that campaign promise in the joint platform. In the TV-debate against Steinbrück, she made in clear that she would not introduce a road toll. I will not introduce a road toll, she said Steinbrück in the face. She made a promise. But now it was back on the table, and she was speechless.

“That is both unacceptable,” Gröhe stated.

“The absolute majority of the Union is largely a product of the CSU’s strength in Bavaria,” Dobrindt announced. “That is our negotiation standpoint.”

“That is unacceptable,” Gröhe repeated.

“We will look into that,” Merkel finally said unhappily. She remained calm as always, but she felt desperate. Is it always going to be like that? she thought. She knew the game. The FDP, always in hopeless need of victories, was constantly trying to punch above their weight. But this government, unlike her last ones, was dangerously unbalanced, and it tilted to the right.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

September 30th, 2013: Bavarian Minister Markus Söder (CSU) has argued that the CSU might force the CDU to accept the road toll as government policy. “The road toll is on the table, because everything is on the table.” CDU-General Secretary Gröhe did not deny Söder’s statement, saying that the two parties would “look closely at what’s best for the country.”

October, 1st 2013

Rolf

“This must be a joke,” he said, unbelieving, as Andrea Nahles, the general secretary of the SPD, waited for an answer. She just asked him whether he could imagine to run for the leadership of the SPD. It was not a joke.

“Andrea,” he said, “nobody knows who I am!”

That was not the whole truth. Rolf Mützenich, member of the Bundestag since 2002, was relatively unknown to the public, but he was well-respected with SPD-MPs. Since 2009, he was the foreign policy spokesperson of the parliamentary SPD and was well known for his strong anti-war sentiment. He was to the left of the party, surely, but he had good relationships to the moderates. And his speaking skills were extraordinary. His tone was heroic and statesmanlike. And he was just now the centerpiece of a plot within the SPD to oust Sigmar Gabriel as leader of the party.

“They will get to know you,” Andrea assured him. “We support you.” We – that was the deputy leaders Olaf Scholz and Hannelore Kraft, the parliamentary leader Frank-Walter Steinmeier, and the general secretary Andrea Nahles herself. All of them had enough of Gabriel’s leadership and wanted to replace him. But with whom?

Scholz and Kraft were the obvious choices. In 2011, Olaf Scholz regained Hamburg for the SPD, winning 48 percent of the vote – the best result for any governing party at that time. He had been member of the Bundestag, general secretary, government minister. But in his style, he was an uncanny copy of Merkel. Technocratic, undogmatic, incompassionate. As general secretary, he enraged the party’s left with this attempt to remove the term “democratic socialism” from the party’s platform. The left of the party, including their powerful youth wing, the Young Socialists (Jusos), would fight him tooth and nail.

Hannelore Kraft was different. In 2010, she became prime-minister of North-Rhine-Westphalia in an SPD-Green minority government. In 2012, her coalition triumphed. Kraft was warm and compassionate. She was moderately left. The party loved her. But it was too much of a risk. North-Rhine-Westphalia was hard to govern. Some bad press was inevitable. If she wanted to make a pitch for 2017, she needed to keep her head down until it was time to shine.

Frank-Walter Steinmeier was popular, but Germany made clear that they didn’t want him too eagerly when he ran for chancellor in 2009 and earned the SPD an embarrassing 23 percent of the vote.

Andrea Nahles surely wanted to be leader, but everyone else didn’t want her to be leader. She was constantly being ridiculed by the media, was perceived as too loud, too quirky. She was not ready to be leader, at least not yet, she told herself. So who could it be?

Malu Dreyer, prime minister of Rhineland-Palatine? Sympathetic, but too folksy. Aydan Özoğuz? A lightweight. Klaus Wowereit? A charming personality, but really not a good mayor of Berlin anymore. Manuela Schwesig? Charismatic, but has no experience. Gesine Schwan? Too sophisticated. Hubertus Heil? Professional, but contaminated. Thomas Opperman? Eager, but bland.

Rolf Mützenich? It’s worth a try.

“This is not about the chancellorship,” Andrea assured him. “We will decide who gets to run for chancellor by the end of 2016, or early 2017. This is solely about the party leadership.”

“Let me talk to my wife about that,” he said.

Mützenich talked to his wife about that. He was about to oust Sigmar Gabriel as leader of the SPD.
October 2nd, 2013: The outgoing Hessian minister of education Nicola Beer (FDP) was nominated as the next general secretary of the FDP. The 34 year old pleaded to set a larger focus on social issues. “The German people did not vote against the liberal cause, they voted against what they perceived as a party for the rich.”
October 3nd, 2013: French industry minister Montebourg has criticized the German government for refusing to introduce a federal minimum wage, accusing Germany to weaken the competitiveness of other European countries by allowing low wages.
October 3nd, 2013: At least 133 refugees have died following a boat accident near Lampedusa, Italy.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

October 3rd, 2013

SPIEGEL ONLINE +++ BREAKING
THIS IS OUR NEW GOVERNMENT

Angela Merkel and Horst Seehofer have proposed their nominees for the federal cabinet. The CDU occupies nine ministries, the CSU six. Wolfgang Schäuble, Ursula von der Leyen and Johanna Wanka have been re-appointed as ministers of finance, labor and social affairs, and education, respectively. Hans-Peter Friedrich, minister for the interior, is the only CSU-minister to be re-appointed. He will become Angela Merkel’s vice-chancellor.

Peter Altmaier, environment minister since 2012, will become the next foreign minister. Thomas de Maizière, former minister of the interior (2009-2011) and defense (2011-2013) has also changed his ministry and will be the next minister for economic development. Christina Schröder, Ronald Pofalla (both CDU), Ilse Aigner and Peter Raumsauer (both CSU) will not be part of the next cabinet.

The CSU has occupied a number of important ministries. Hans Michelbach will become the next minister for economic affairs. De Maizière’s successor in the defense department will be Reinhard Brandl. Dorothee Bär, the CSU’s 35-year old rising star, will be the next minister for family, seniors, women and youth. The CSU’s general secretary Alexander Dobrindt will be Peter Ramsauer’s successor in the ministry for transport, building, urban affairs. The ministry will be expanded and will include digital infrastructure. Artur Auhammer will become Altmaier’s successor as minister for environment, nature conservation and nuclear safety.

The new CDU ministers are Johannes Röring as minister for agriculture, food and consumer protection, former North-Rhine-Westphalian Prime Minister Jürgen Rüttgers as minister for health, and Helge Braun as the head of the federal chancellery.

Chancellor: Angela Merkel (CDU)
Vice-Chancellor and Minister for the Interior: Hans-Peter Friedrich (CSU)
Minister for Foreign Affairs: Peter Altmaier (CDU)
Minister of Justice: Hermann Gröhe (CDU)
Minister of Finance: Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU)
Minister for Economic Affairs: Hans Michelbach (CSU)
Minister for Labor and Social Affairs: Ursula von der Leyen (CDU)
Minister for Agriculture, Food and Consumer Protection: Johannes Röring (CDU)
Minister of Defense:Reinhard Brandl (CSU)
Minister for Family, Seniors, Women and Youth: Dorothee Bär (CSU)
Minister for Health: Jürgen Rüttgers(CDU)
Minister for Transport, Building, Urban Affairs and Digital Infrastructure: Alexander Dobrindt (CSU)
Minister for Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety: Artur Auernhammer (CSU)
Minister for Education and Research: Johanna Wanka (CDU)
Minister for Economic Development: Thomas de Maizière (CDU)
Minister for Special Tasks and Head of the Federal Chancellery: Helge Braun (CDU)

Thomas

[/size]

“This is awful. I am f***ed.”

“This is the end of my political career!” he exclaimed. He, Thomas de Maizière, former minister for the interior and minister of defence, has just been named as minister for economic development.

“And now,” he said, “don’t try to sell it as an opportunity or something like that. This is a demotion. This is a slap in the face.”

“I hear that”, said Julia Klöckner, the 41 year old deputy leader of the CDU and Merkel’s protegée. “I know it’s bad. But this is the way it is. The pressure came from the CSU. They wanted eight ministries, plus road toll. Angela negotiated them down to six, plus road toll. But they wanted some big ones.”

“And I am the one who will be ousted,” de Maizière stated.

“You’re not ousted,” Klöckner responded. “She wants you to be in the cabinet. But the CSU wanted defence plus interior.”

“Then why did Altmaier get foreign affairs and I didn’t? He’s been in the last cabinet for only a year! And what about Gröhe? He’s got absolutely no profile!”

“Angela has a very high opinion of Altmaier. And she thinks that Gröhe deserves that spot. He’s lead the general election campaign, and as you know, he got us the majority. Ursula and Wolfgang are indispensable, and so are you.”

Thomas reluctantly agreed. But he would never forgive Merkel that act of disloyalty.
October 4th, 2013: In the light of the tragedy near Lampedusa, Federal President Gauck urged the European Union to provide better protection and shelter for refugees. Aydan Özoğuz (SPD deputy leader) prompted the federal government to be more involved in refugee policy. Interior minister Hans-Peter Friedrich (CSU) stated that the European Union should do more against human trafficking.
October 6th, 2013: A debate has erupted within the AfD concerning the inclusion of members who were formally active in right-wing populist fringe parties. While AfD leader Bernd Lucke argues that the AfD is a “liberal-conservative reform party that must protected from infiltration by right-wing extremists”, his co-leader Frauke Petry warned against categorical exclusion and underscored similarities between the AfD and other smaller parties.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

October 6th, 2013

Sigmar

The evening before inaugural meeting of the newly elected Bundestag, Andrea Nahles arranged a meeting with Gabriel and Steinmeier, the newly re-elected leader of the parliamentary SPD. Gabriel expected a discussion about the party’s strategy concerning the election of Angela Merkel the following day. For opposition parties, it was natural to vote against the candidate of the governing parties, but in most cases, this opposition was purely formal, as the discipline concerning important votes was very strong in the Bundestag. But Merkel’s majority was very small. What would the SPD do if Merkel failed to secure a majority?

But that was not the reason for the meeting, and Gabriel knew that from the moment he learned that Deputy Leader Olaf Scholz would also attend the meeting. He was not a member of parliament.

“We want to be quite frank with you,” Steinmeier stated. “We think that both in the parliamentary SPD and in the party committee, there are serious doubts about you leading the party.”

“There always were,” Gabriel responded. “I know that I am not a person who is likely to get unanimous approval.”

“The approval is not just not unanimous,” Scholz said, “but we would estimate that there is not even a majority in the party conference that would support you.”

And then Gabriel did something very Gabriel-esque. He grunted, he shook his head, and then he began to argue. “Whose opinion is that? Which members are you talking about? Why haven’t they taken responsibility four years ago? Why haven’t they addressed me directly?”

He paused for a moment, and then asked the only question he actually wanted to be answered. “Who do they want to replace me, then?”

“Mützenich,” Nahles answered.

“Mützenich,” Gabriel repeated. “And he is on board? Let’s call for a conference, then. Set up a meeting. I want to talk to those who have concerns.” Usually, Gabriel would have been smarter. He would have seen that he had no chance, because he begged. And if you have to beg in politics, Gabriel knew, you have already lost. But this was different. This was about his career.

“We wanted to be candid to you”, Steinmeier said. “Mützenich is more popular within the parliamentary SPD. The party needs a turning point, and that means that the party needs a new face. At least for now.”

“Let’s keep our mouths shut for now,” Nahles proposed, “and make all the necessary announcements when they’re due.”

Gabriel showed no reaction, but he found everything that happened deeply unfair. Of course the general election was lost, but he was not the chancellor-candidate. And in regional elections, the SPD faired pretty well since he was leader.

I promised that I’d run again, he thought. I will run again, I will rock this conference, and I will win.

I am still Sigmar Gabriel.

October 7th, 2013

SPIEGEL ONLINE +++
NEW PARLIAMENT CONSTITUTES

The 18th German Bundestag is constituted. The 619 members have been formally sworn in and introduced to their offices. For the first time in the history of the Federal Republic, the FDP will not be represented in parliament.

President Lammert re-elected

Source: Tobias Koch: Norbert Lammert, via Wikimedia

By protocol, former government minister Heinz Riesenhuber (CDU), being the oldest member of the Bundestag, opened the session. In his speech, he marked the historical distinctiveness of the new parliament and urged the parliamentarians to be careful with their power.

“The next parliament will be dominated by confrontation. Things will be said that should not have been said. Debates will be heated – maybe in a harmful way. Please, my fellow colleagues of the majority, refrain from implementing natural arrogance in your ways and habits, and please, my fellow colleagues of the majority, refrain from bitterness, harmful provocations and vitriolic language. Both states would be very easy to reach, and both states would be disastrous for our political debate.”

After his speech, Riesenhuber chaired the election of the president of the Bundestag. Incumbent President Norbert Lammert (CDU) was the only candidate. He was re-elected with 586 votes (94.7%). Although Lammert is seen as fairly conservative in his policy stances, he has earned widespread respect among all members of the Bundestag for his impartiality while presiding over the session, for his charisma and his wit, and his championship of the rights of the legislature and its members. He underscored the latter in particular his inaugural speech.

“Seldom before in the history of the Federal Republic have so few individuals held so much political power. I must remind those who now see those unprecedented powers in their own hands that the merit of the political compromise is more than a talking point in pretty speeches, that the value of unity does not only exist when it is politically profitable. And I must remind those that I will not preside over a parliament that is an extended arm of party committees, nor a parliament that is called to follow the will of the government.”

Vice-Presidential Election turns confrontational

After Lammert’s inaugural speech, the Union introduced a motion to change the allocation of vice presidents in the Bundestag’s standing orders. Up until the last election, it has been the rule that every parliamentary group is entitled to one vice president. The Union’s proposal was to grant the largest parliamentary group an additional vice president. Volker Kauder said, the proposal would “reflect the political realities and make the parliamentary procedures more efficient.” Leader of the opposition Steinmeier criticized the Union, stating that “an absolute majority does not mean that [one] can bend the rules in the way we want,” and that the motion was “an attack on the rights of the opposition.” – “The tone is set,” he concluded. The motion passed along party lines.

In the vice-presidential elections Edelgard Bulmahn (SPD) received the best result. 534 parliamentarians (86.2%) voted for her. Petra Pau (LINKE) and Claudia Roth (B’90/Grüne) were elected with 451 (72.8%) and 415 (67.0) votes, respectively. The Union’s candidates were elected with strong opposition. Peter Hinze (CDU) received 321 votes (51.9%), Johannes Singhammer (CSU) received 316 votes (51.0%).

The chancellor will be elected later this afternoon.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

7th October, 2013

Angela

Merkel never liked these chancellor elections in the Bundestag. She would always underperform the mathematics, as there were always quite a few dissidents within her own ranks. In 2005 and 2009, the majority was stable. Still, she had been nervous when the votes were counted. This time, the majority was not even stable.

The days before, she was sure that she would reach the magic number of 310 votes. The meeting with the parliamentary Union group went well; there was not one opinion critical of her. She knew that the CSU-MPs, given the historic strength of the party in the government, would not vote against her, but she wanted to talk to them anyways, just to be sure. And everything went well. She even met with all newly elected Union-MPs and gave them an opportunity to post a handshake-with-the-chancellor-photo on their Facebook accounts.

When she entered parliament that day, she was overwhelmed by the mere size of the Union group. In the plenary hall of the Bundestag, the different parliamentary groups are visible due to architectural alterations of the seating arrangements after each election. On the left, there were three divided chunks of seats for the opposition parties. On the right, there was one monolithic block. She had never seen something like that. She took her seat in the front row, next to Volker Kauder and Gerda Hasselfeld, the parliamentary leader of the CSU-MPs within the Union.

We are so many, she thought, of course I will win. But then, the vice-presidential elections came the meeting turned chaotic.

All she could do was sit there, watch the debate, watch her candidates get embarrassingly low results. Of course, she thought, the opposition is right. The Union has no right to an additional vice president.

We are not the good ones here.

And then the voting started. The Federal President has proposed to the Bundestag that she, Angela Merkel, shall be elected. Of course he did. She had the majority. But when she sat there, eagerly waiting on the count to end, she had these horrible doubts.

We were not the good ones. Maybe we lose some moderates. No, that is impossible.

“Votes cast: 619. Invalid votes: 4. Valid votes: 615. Votes needed: 310,” Lammert declared. The votes were counted. “Number of ‘Yes’ votes: 311. Number of ‘No’ votes: 300. Number of ‘Present’ votes: 4.”

Two votes, she thought, as the Union-MPs gave her a standing ovation, two votes. She received a thousand flowers. She shook a thousand hands. She recited her oath of office. She sat on the government bench. The session was suspended for half an hour. Her cabinet came to sit on the bench. They took their oath. The session was suspended for the rest of the day. The cabinet left to get the official appointment by the Federal President.

Two votes.
RECENT POLLS +++
UNION GETS POST-ELECTION BUMP

If the 19th Bundestag was elected today, who would you vote for? (± compared to the last election)

Christian Democratic/Social Union (CDU/CSU): 45% (+2.5%)
Social Democratic Party (SPD): 24% (-1.2%)
The LEFT (LINKE) :9% (+0.7%)
Alliance ‘90/Greens (B’90/Grüne): 7% (-1.1%)
Free Democratic Party (FDP): 3% (-1.4%)
Alternative for Germany (AfD): 4% (-0.3%)
others: 8%

If you were able to vote for the chancellor directly, who would you vote for?

Angela Merkel: 67%
Sigmar Gabriel: 14%
Gregor Gysi: 5%

What is your preferred coalition?

Union alone: 35%
Union-SPD: 30%
Union-Greens: 17%
Union-Left: 2%
October 8th, 2013: CSU-Leader Horst Seehofer has reaffirmed his intention to stay as Bavarian prime minister for the whole duration of his term.
October 10th, 2013: While the death toll in Lampedusa has risen over 300, Interior Minister Friedrich (CSU) was criticized for demanding a tougher action against the influx of refugees.
October 13th, 2013: SPD-Leader Sigmar Gabriel has denied media reports of a possible coup against him and reaffirmed his intention to stay as leader of the party.
October 15th, 2013: The opposition has criticized the CDU due to a 690,000€ donation made by automobile manufacturer BMW. Several opposition politicians have made a connection between the donation and the federal government blocking stronger European rules for CO2-emissions emitted by vehicles.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Oof, the CSU got the Environmental post...

This is absolutely fantastic!

Thank you! Appreciate it.

is the CSU more, less, or equally pro-environment than the CDU?

In 2019, the CSU took a sharp turn in favor of environmental-friendly policies. But I don't think that in 2013 there were substantial differences between CDU and CSU on that issue. Every party in the Bundestag acknowledged that the government must act against climate change, with the differences between the parties on this issue being about specific measures, not on the concept of climate change as a whole.

Of course, CDU/CSU politicians opposed radical approaches on climate change and often talk about impacts of climate change policies on the economy. I think the CSU was a tiny bit more against radical environmental policies because Audi and BWM, which have their headquarters and many factories in Bavaria, are crucial for Bavaria's very good economy. So the CSU would be more interested in fighting measures that would be harsh for automobile manufacturers. But aside from that, the diffence should be marginal.

On a sidenote. Now that the timeline has covered the government formation, I think I will increase the pace a bit and leave the 2013-election behind. There are still two important events regarding the aftermath of the election, but I try to cover more events and longer time periods in the upcoming posts. Writing it requires some effort and research, but it's still fun for me. I hope those who follow this TL enjoy it, although I know that it is quite challenging if you are not that informed about German politics. Don't hesistate to ask if I wrote something that does not make sense to you. I am always grateful for your questions and your feedback.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

what practical effect will the CSU be able to deliver with its portfolios in general?

Everything the government does has to be supported by the majority of the cabinet, with the chancellor having the Richtlinienkompetenz - a fancy German word for the authority to set the guidelines of government policy.

In reality, everything the government does is the result of negotiations between the parties in the coalition. Uncoordinated efforts by one minister or one party almost always result in a scandal, in which the "betrayed" coalition partner will certainly threaten to leave the coalition. That threat is very powerful, as Germans really like stable governments and will always find someone to blame in the very rare case of an early election (in fact, Germany had very few early elections because the constitution makes it very hard to call one).

But here is why it is important which party occupies which ministry. The ministers are the ones who actually propose government legislation. They put abstract political concepts into practice. They of course have an influence regarding the details of what the parties have negotiated, but one must also regard the importance of the power to propose. Government ministers will propose various things of which they know that they wont pass. You can strengthen your personal and your parties profile by putting the blame on the other party which does not let you pass your beautiful new proposal.

Of course that will be very important once we come to the refugee crisis, which lead to an unprecedented conflict between CDU and CSU. In 2016, the CSU fought hard to introduce a cap on the number of refugees, which Merkel refused. In this TL, the CSU occupies the ministry of the interior, which is the ministry that deals with basically all refugee-related policies. A dissenting opinion regarding the refugee policy has more gravitas if the one who voices it is also the one who has to write the legislation.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

October 16th, 2013: Transport Minister Alexander Dobridt (CSU) has announced that his ministry prepares a bill that would effectively introduce a road toll for foreign vehicles. The ministry had still been elaborating different mechanisms to prevent additional financial burden for German drivers. SPD General Secretary Andrea Nahles attacked the project as “fraud of highest quality.” Frank-Walter Steinmeier (SPD) called on Chancellor Merkel to clarify whether she would support the plan of the transport minister. “If yes, then it is clear that Chancellor Merkel has lied.”
October 17th, 2013: Government Spokesman Steffen Seibert has confirmed that the road toll was planned to be introduced before the next election, prompting further critique from opposition politicians.
October 18th, 2013: The parliamentary groups of SPD, LINKE and A90/Greens will propose a joint motion to introduce a chancellor question-time similar to the tradition in the British House of Commons. President Norbert Lammert (CDU) has previously supported this idea. The Bundestag already knows a question-time which includes solely previously submitted questions for government ministers and junior ministers. The Union rejects the proposal due to concerns that this procedure could be exploited for political stunts.

October 19th, 2013
Cem

Olaf Kosinsky: Bundesdelegiertenkonferenz Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 2014 in Hamburg. CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia

69.4%. Last year, he got 83.3%. Okay, got it. Cem Özdemir had just been re-elected as co-leader of Alliance’90/ The Greens, but his result was embarrassingly low.

He didn’t really have an explanation, but he understood very well. The party needed answers. Just 8% this year. How was that possible? How did they collapse? After the Fukushima-incident, they had the momentum. Winfried Kretschman, the leader of the party in Baden-Württemberg, became the first green prime minister in the history of the Federal Republic. They gained votes left an right. In some polls, they got over 20 percent. In some polls, they even topped the SPD. And now it’s just 8 percent?

I’m as angry as everybody, Cem thought, but it’s not my fault. The campaign had been a mess. As top candidates, the members had elected a moderate, Katrin Göring-Eckard, and a progressive, Jürgen Trittin. Göring-Eckard was not remotely ready for the job. She was too weak, too bland, nobody knew who she was. Trittin was a brand, but it was not a good brand. In the summer, news broke that in the 80s, he approved of a local election platform which questioned the illegality of sexual relationships with minors. The story was blown up, everybody knew that, but it had hurt the campaign nonetheless. And there was another problem with Trittin. Özdemir didn’t like him. He was tall, his voice was deep and he spoke like a statesman, but he always sounded as if he was talking from a moral high ground, as if it was your moral duty to overthrow the system.

But people don’t want to overthrow the system, and they don’t want moralizing lectures. Özdemir was a moderate. He wanted the Greens to be able to form coalitions with the SPD as well as with the CDU. He wanted to be foreign minister, that was his dream job. And if the Union had not gained the absolute majority, he would have fought hard for the Black/Green coalition.

“They call us the “party of bans”. Ban meat. Ban cars. That is what the people out there perceive,” he exclaimed. “We know that this is not what our platform is. But that is what our election campaign might have communicated. I don’t want the people to vote Green because we are the moral, the true choice. I want people to vote Green because we are the rational choice.”

Vote green, because, science, right? That was a compelling argument for Özdemir. Don’t talk about what the Greens want. Talk about what the Germans want. Take their concerns seriously. Be approachable. He himself was an approachable figure. He was known for his sideburns. A popular late night host called him “Turkish Elvis”. He was the son of Turkish immigrants, but he had a thick Swabian dialect. Swabians were known for certain values. Cleanliness, thrift, thoroughness. Don’t spend more than you have. Be realistic. For that reason, Winfried Kretschmann was the green prime minister in Baden-Württemberg. Swabia is part of Baden-Württemberg.

So, why shouldn’t the Greens become more moderate? After all, the Germans re-elected a moderate chancellor with a resounding victory just a month ago.

That was the path they had do take. That he was sure of.
October 22nd, 2013: One month after the regional election, Hesse has still to form a government. Neither an SPD-Green nor a CDU-FDP government has won a majority.
October 23nd, 2013: A growing number of soldiers report complaints. The Bundeswehr is criticized for inefficient communication and insufficient material stocks. Defense Minister Reinhard Brandl (CSU) announced that the Defense ministry would request more funds in the next federal budget.

October 23th, 2013
Rolf

Three weeks before the SPD’s party conference, Rolf Mützenich received a call from Andrea Nahles. The time was running out. He was nervous.

“We are going public today,” she stated.

“But Sigmar Gabriel has not even ruled out running for re-election.”

“It doesn’t matter,” she said, “we’re doing it now.”

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

October 23nd, 2013: Speculations arose that Rolf Mützenich, MP for Cologne, might run for the leadership of the SPD.
October 24nd, 2013: Chancellor Merkel has called US-President Barack Obama amid allegations that her cell phone was surveilled by the NSA. While the US government denied the claims, German government spokesperson Steffen Seibert stated that, if true, such practices would constitute a “fundamental breach of trust” between the two countries.
October 24nd, 2013: A growing number of SPD-politicians and parliamentarians came out in support for a possible Mützenich-leadership, among those deputy leaders Klaus Wowereit and Hannelore Kraft, Prime Minister Maly Dreyer, and former SPD-leaders Franz Müntzefering and Kurt Beck. SPD-Leader Sigmar Gabriel affirmed that he plans to run for re-election.
October 25nd, 2013: Vice-Chancellor Hans-Peter Friedrich called for the United States to apologize for the surveillance of Merkel’s cell phone.
October 25nd, 2013: Rolf Mützenich has officially announced his bid for the SPD-leadership. “More than ever, the SPD must be the party for the hardworking people. Because for too long, the hardworking people have not been able to reap the fruits of their work. We must re-establish the promise of advancement that this country has benefited from.”
October 26nd, 2013: SPD-Leader Sigmar Gabriel urged the federal government to halt all negotiations for the EU-US trade agreement TTIP. Gregor Gysi (LINKE) called for Chancellor Merkel to declare the US-Ambassador John B. Emerson as a persona non grata.

October 27th, 2013
Sigmar

“Be honest with me,” he asked. “What is your assessment?”

“And you want me to be really honest with you?” Martin Schulz asked.

“Totally honest,” Gabriel told him.

“My assessment is that he will be our next party-leader.”

October 27nd, 2013: Martin Schulz, president of the European parliament, has come out in support of Rolf Mützenich’s leadership bid.
October 28nd, 2013: The opposition parties (SPD, Greens, LINKE) support the installation of an investigative committee regarding the NSA-scanal, following the news that Angela Merkel has been under surveillance by the NSA since 2002.
October 29nd, 2013: The Union parties have signaled that they will not oppose the installation of an investigative committee.
October 30th, 2013: Sigmar Gabriel has announced his intention to step down as party leader and expressed his support for Rolf Mützenich: “The right man at the right time.”
November 1st, 2013: US-tech companies have urged the United States Senate to restrict government surveillance. Secretary of State John Kerry has admitted that government surveillance “sometimes goes too far.”
November 2nd, 2013: Vice-Chancellor Hans-Peter Friedrich (CSU) stated that the federal government is willing to talk with American whistle-blower Edward Snowden, stating that “all information available is useful information.” Thomas Opperman (SPD) wants Snowden to testify in the Bundestag. Snowden currently resides in Moscow.
RECENT POLLS +++
MAJORITY OF GERMANS DOES NOT FEEL THREATENED BY THE NSA

Are you concerned about possibly having been a subject of NSA-surveillance?

Yes, very: 14%
Yes, somewhat: 25%
No, not really: 37%
No, not at all: 24%

If the 19th Bundestag was elected today, who would you vote for? (± compared to the previous poll)

Christian Democratic/Social Union (CDU/CSU): 41% (-4%)
Social Democratic Party (SPD): 26% (+2%)
The LEFT (LINKE): 9% (no change)
Alliance ‘90/Greens (B’90/Grüne): 8% (+1%)
Free Democratic Party (FDP): 5% (+2)
Alternative for Germany (AfD): 4% (no change)
others: 9%

If you were able to vote for the chancellor directly, who would you vote for? (± compared to the previous poll)

Angela Merkel: 70% (+3)
Sigmar Gabriel: 14% (no change)
Gregor Gysi: 4% (-1)

What do you think of the road toll?

Approve: 39%
Disapprove: 52%

Do you approve of Sigmar Gabriel’s decision to step down as leader of the SPD?

Approve: 72%
Disapprove: 14%

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

November 2nd, 2013: Multiple thousand people have protested in Hamburg in favor of a more welcoming refugee-policy. First Mayor Olaf Scholz (SPD) has rejected to receive refugees from Lampedusa.
November 4nd, 2013: High officials from German and American security agencies have met for negotiations potentially leading to a “no-spy-agreement.”
November 5nd, 2013: Cem Özdemir (Greens) has announced that the Greens would aim for a result of “10 percent plus x” at the upcoming election for the European parliament.
November 8nd, 2013: Merkel stated that the federal government will focus on the reduction of energy prices.
November 10nd, 2013: Labor Minister Ursula von der Leyen (CDU) has announced that her ministry plans to draft a bill that would force unions and employers to negotiate standard wages in nearly all economic sectors. SPD-General Secretary Andrea Nahles that the SPD will continue to fight for a federal minimum wage of at least 8.50€ per hour.
November 13nd, 2013: CSU-Leader Horst Seehofer has come out in support of national plebicites. The CDU opposes that idea.
November 13nd, 2013: Hesse still has to find a new government. Media reports have stated that negotiations between SPD, Greens and LEFT have failed.

November 14th, 2013
Rolf


Olaf Kosinsky: Torsten Albig, SPD, auf dem SPD Bundesparteitag am 19. März 2017 in Berlin, CC 3.0 BY via Wikimedia

The party conference has welcomed its outgoing leader, Sigmar Gabriel, with a mild applause when he walked to the lectern, about to begin his opening speech. Gabriel’s speech has been the great uncertainty. It would not just determine his legacy, it would determine the spirit of the whole party conference. The congress center in Leipzig was packed with delegates, guests and journalists. No one knew what Gabriel had to say. He refused to show his manuscript to any member of the party committee. Andrea Nahles expected the worst. She expected that the conference was about to see a vengeful Gabriel, a Gabriel that was out for blood, a Gabriel that would spontaneously announce to jump on the leadership ballot at the last second.

But Gabriel knew that this was also about his legacy, and he had understood that his career did not have to be over.

“Four years ago, you elected me as leader of the party. We were in a difficult situation. We had lost regional election after regional election. We had received our worst election result since the beginning of the Second World War. We were punished by many people who had voted SPD all their lives. They did not trust us, because they had no reason to trust us. I wanted to regain that trust. But I failed.”

Gabriel’s brutal honesty was strange for the majority of delegates, as they had never heard such a self-criticism from Gabriel before. He was not out for blood, Nahles understood.

“It wasn’t all bad. In nearly all regional elections since 2009, the SPD was stronger than it was before. This is not nothing. This is something we can be proud of.”

By the end of Gabriel’s speech, everyone in the room remembered why Gabriel was elected in the first place. He was a darn good speaker. He was a sharp mind. Under thunderous applause, he exclaimed: “Our party was not dead in 2009. Our party is in a better shape than it was four years ago. We are stronger than most of our opponents want us to be. And the best chance to further strengthen this party is to elect Rolf Mützenich as leader of the SPD!”

And then he waved and received flowers and then Mützenich joined him on stage and they stood there arm in arm under the roaring applause of the crowd and Mützenich thought Thank you, you have just ruined my speech.

He hadn’t. Gabriel may have been a good speaker, but Mützenich was great.

“The absolute majority shows the absolute arrogance that happens when privileged people make their own rules. I was not privileged. My parents did not graduate. They were regular working people. Their story is a story that many people share. But my story, the story of a child of such people that ended up participating in writing the rules, is not. This is the fundamental injustice in the German society. So my message is to everybody who has been neglected by our government: The SPD will let you have a say.”

Mützenich hoped for 90 percent plus x. In the end, 97.2% of the convention voted for him.

Andrea Nahles had to go as general secretary. That was a concession the conservative wing of the SPD had asked for and that was a concession Nahles was willing to offer. Natascha Kohnen, general secretary of the Bavarian SPD, was elected with 92.5%.

For the Anti-Gabriel-Alliance, everything went really smoothly. They had successfully installed Mützenich as a placeholder. But Mützenich was not stupid. He understood how they played. And he did not want to be a placeholder. He knew he had the gravitas to influence what the rest of the leadership committee could look like. The alliance had planned to install the incumbents Olaf Scholz, Aydan Özoğuz, Manuela Schwesig and Hannelore Kraft as deputy-leaders and to replace resigning deputy-leader Klaus Wowereit with Hessian SPD-leader Thorsten Schäfer Gümbel, a member of the conservative wing.

Mützenich knew he could not win against the alliance, so he had to destroy the alliance before the game started. His plan was to persuade two others to run for deputy-leader: Karl Lauterbach, a conservative, but a friend of his, and Andrea Nahles herself. She had serious doubts, but Mützenich assured her that he had his support. When the news broke that Nahles and Lauterbach would make the leadership election competitive, a turmoil arose among the members. For the first time in his young tenure, Mützenich was about to make a bold move and to take a high risk.

“I think the situation proves that,” he said, as he took the stage, “it is really enough with the backroom deals. It is time to stop trading offices and jobs for strategical purposes. Let’s risk more democracy and hand the decision to the delegates. So I urge everybody who wants to run to throw their hat into the ring.” The delegates loved the idea, but Olaf Scholz was in panic. He wanted to talk with Nahles about the next steps, but she had no interest in talking to him. The conference chair decided to suspend the conference for half an hour, so that all candidates could declare their candidacy to the chair. Half an hour later, there were twelve candidates for five deputy-leadership positions. This kind of contest was unprecedented.

“Olaf Scholz. Hannelore Kraft. Aydan Özoğuz. Manuela Schwesig. Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel. Andrea Nahles. Karl Lauterbach. Ralf Stegner. Sascha Vogt. Raed Saleh. Martin Dulig. Hilde Mattheis.”

Nobody knew who all these people were, but well, some of them got elected somehow. Hannelore Kraft, Andrea Nahles, Martin Dulig, Hilde Mattheis and, just barely, Olaf Scholz made the cut.

The rest of the leadership election was similar. There were 59 candidates for 26 posts in the leadership committee.

For Mützenich, the conference was a victory. For Scholz and the Anti-Gabriel-Alliance, it was a disaster.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

November 20nd, 2013: The Bundestag voted in favor of a continuation of military operations in Dafur and in South Sudan.
November 23nd, 2013: Horst Seehofer was re-elected as leader of the CSU with 95% of the vote.
November 23nd, 2013: In Hesse, CDU and Greens have decided to begin negotiations to form a coalition.
November 24nd, 2013: In Kiev, several thousand people have protested against Ukrainian President Wiktor Janukowitsch and in favor of an alignment with the European Union.
November 26nd, 2013: The German Data-Report 2013 showed that, although unemployment is shrinking, poverty is on the rise. SPD-Leader Mützenich called these findings “a proof of bad governing.”
November 28nd, 2013: Defense Minister Reinhard Brandl (CSU) came out in support of restricting the legislature’s powers in military-related matters. Jan Korte (LEFT) disagreed, stating that “the Bundeswehr is not the army of the government but the army of the parliament, for good reasons.”
December 1st, 2013: More than 100.000 people have assembled in Kiev to protest against the Ukrainian government. SPD-Leader Mützenich praised the pro-European sentiment of the protesters. Chancellor Merkel has called for President Janukowitsch to ensure that the protesters can voice their opinions freely.
December 2st, 2013: The Federal Council (Bundesrat), the representation of the states in parliament, has submitted a joint motion to the Federal Constitutional Court that seeks the dissolution of the National Democratic Party (NPD). President of the Council, Stephan Weil (SPD-Lower Saxony) has called the NPD a “deeply racist, deeply extremist party, which stands in the tradition of national socialism.” The NPD has received 1.1 percent in the last general election and is currently represented in the state parliaments of Saxony and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, as well as in several municipal councils.
December 3rd, 2013: Foreign Minister Altmaier (CDU) has traveled to Kiev to join a conference of the Organization for Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). He called the situation in the Ukraine a “deeply European matter.” Russian Foreign Minister Lawrow stated that his country was concerned about the situation in the Ukraine but called for the west not to interfere in Ukrainian matters.
December 5th, 2013: Vice-Chancellor Friedrich (CSU) urged the EU to maintain border controls for migrants from Bulgaria and Romania in order to prevent poverty-driven migration from both countries. Bulgaria and Romania are members of the EU since 2007 but will obtain the freedom of movement at the beginning of 2014.
December 7th, 2013: Christian Lindner has formally been elected leader of the Free Democratic Party (FDP). He declared that, after the party’s historic defeat, its renewal process could last for a very long time and that the members should not satisfying results in the next elections.

Source: Dirk Vorderstraße, Landtagswahlkampfauftakt der FDP in Münster. CC BY 2.0 via Wikimedia

December 8th, 2013: Federal President Gauck will not travel to the Olympic Winter Games in Sotschi, citing human rights abuses by the Russian government.

RECENT POLLING +++
MANY GERMANS WANT A LIBERAL PARTY, JUST NOT THE FDP

If the 19th Bundestag was elected today, who would you vote for? (± compared to the previous poll)

Christian Democratic/Social Union (CDU/CSU) ……. 42% (+1%)
Social Democratic Party (SPD) ……. 27% (+1%)
The LEFT (LINKE) …….. 8% (-1%)
Alliance ‘90/Greens (B’90/Grüne) …….. 8% (no change)
Free Democratic Party (FDP) ……... 4% (-1%)
Alternative for Germany (AfD) …….. 5% (+1%)
others ……... 6%

If you were able to vote for the chancellor directly, who would you vote for? (± compared to the previous poll)

Angela Merkel ………. 51 (-19%)
Rolf Mützenich ………. 35% (new)
Gregor Gysi ……… 3% (-1)

Should there be a liberal party in the Bundestag? Should it be the FDP?

Yes, a liberal party should be in the Bundestag ……… 31%
No, a liberal party does not have to be in the Bundestag ………  65%
Yes, the FDP should be in the Bundestag ………  13%
No, the FDP does not have to be in the Bundestag ………  80%

Do you approve of the statement that the FDP is a party “for the wealthy?”

Approve ………  79%
Disapprove ………  15%

If there was a liberal party other than the FDP, who would you vote for? (± compared to actual voting intention)

Christian Democratic/Social Union (CDU/CSU) ………  35% (-7%)
Social Democratic Party (SPD) ………  25% (-2%)
Hypothetical Liberal Party ………  16%
The LEFT (LINKE) ………  8% (no change)
Alliance ‘90/Greens (B’90/Grüne) ………  5% (-3%)
Free Democratic Party (FDP) ………  1% (-3%)
Alternative for Germany (AfD) ………  3% (-2%)
others ………  7%
December 10th, 2013: Defense Minister Reinhard Brandl (CSU) has visited the German troops stationed in Kosovo. With 675 soldiers, Germany provides the largest contingent of the 5000 men and women from 31 countries.
December 10th, 2013: Lower-Saxony’s SPD-Green government has eliminated tuition fees, being the last state in the country to do so.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

December 11th, 2013: In a recent poll, 25% of Germans named Helmut Schmidt (SPD, 1974-1982) as the most important German chancellor, followed by Helmut Kohl (23%, CDU, 1982-1998) and Willy Brandt (18%, SPD, 1969-1974).
December 12th, 2013: Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU) has urged the Greek government to continue its austerity policy.
December 14th, 2013: Justice Minister Hermann Gröhe announced that his ministry would prepare a new data-retention-law. In 2007, Germany had passed a law forcing every telecommunication provider to retain any data for the duration of six months in order to facilitate criminal investigations. However, that law was declared unconstitutional in 2010. Cem Özdemir (Green) questioned that similar law could be successful.
December 14th, 2013: The number of asylum requests has reached 100,000. That is a plus of 70% compared to last year. Almost 12,000 of those were requested by Syrian refugees. Vice Chancellor Hans-Peter Friedrich (CSU) announced that Germany would seek to reduce the numbers of asylum seekers in Germany.
December 15th, 2013: The AfD may have violated political donation laws. According to reports, the party has received over 1,000,000€ in loans. The conditions of these loans were inadequately generous which suggest that these loans were in fact disguised contributions. All political contributions have to be reported to the President of the Bundestag.
December 19th, 2013: Chancellor Merkel’s assessment of the EU-summit is mixed. She complains that the EU-governments have failed to agree on binding economic reforms. However, she is content with the agreement over a joint supervision of the banking sector.
December 23th, 2013: Hessian Prime Minister Volker Bouffier (CDU) and Tarek Al-Wazir (Greens) have signed their coalition agreement.
December 24th, 2013: In his Christmas address, Federal President Gauck urged Germany be more accepting towards refugees. Reports show that the number of attacks on refugee homes has doubled compared to 2012.

Source: Tobias Kleinschmidt, 50th Munich Security Conference 2014: Joachim Gauck. CC BY 3.0 via Wikimedia

December 27th, 2013: Transport Minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) has put the plans of his ministry in more concrete terms: “We plan to cancel the car tax in exchange for the road toll.” German Automobile Associations and SPD-deputy leader Martin Dulig criticized the plans: “That would burden owners of used cars and the owners of Porsche-cars equally.”
December 29th, 2013: CSU-leader Horst Seehofer has announced that his party will campaign against poverty-driven migration prior the elections for the European parliament, echoing concerns from within his party that immigrants from Bulgaria and Romania will fraudulently try to optain social benefits once they are able to travel freely in the European Union. “Frauds will be deported,” he announced. “We are not the welfare office of the world.”
December 30th, 2013: SPD, LEFT and Greens have criticized Seehofer for his statements against migrants. “Seehofer is trying to construct a problem that does not exist,” SPD-deputy leader Hilde Mattheis stated. LEFT-co-leader Bernd Riexinger speculates that “Seehofer is copying statements from AfD and NPD because they put him under enormous pressure.”

January 1st, 2014

Bernd

One year ago, Bernd Lucke was professor for macroeconomics in Hamburg. A year later, he was one of the most controversial figures in Germany. The holidays were the only time in the year when Lucke finally, just for a moment, could rest.

Bernd Lucke was co-founder and co-leader of the Alternative for Germany. Last year, the party barely missed the threshold for the entry of the Bundestag. In the polls, the AfD was hovering around 5%. We are few, he knew. But five percent is a considerable portion of the German population. 2014 would be a crucial year for the AfD. In the fall, there were regional elections in the East: Saxony, Brandenburg, Thuringia. In the general election, the AfD received more than 6% in those states. But the most important election would be much earlier. On May 25th, the people in the EU would elect their respective delegations to the European parliament. The European election would be the AfD’s time to shine. After all, Europe was the issue the AfD was founded on.

It was Merkel’s handling of the euro crisis that lead to the founding of the AfD. Stop the financial waste, abolish the euro, go back to national currencies, re-delegate competences back to the national states. The EU was too big, to powerful. That was his message, and Lucke, the professor, did a good job in promoting his message, but other members of his party had other plans. Frauke Petry, his co-leader, was considerable more right-wing than Lucke was. Yes, the euro-stuff was important, but she wanted to talk about other issues: Islam, refugees, immigration. She refused to decline membership applications from former members of small right-wing parties. She wanted to drag the party to the right.

That would work if the circumstances were different, Lucke knew. But he also knew that the next German government would be considerable more conservative as well. Seehofer would fight as hard as possible to not lose any voters to the AfD. But the decline of the FDP left room for another party. Stepping into that void was Lucke’s goal. Transform the AfD into a liberal-conservative movement. The party of personal responsibility. The party that would re-distribute powers to the bottom of the pyramid. But that would mean that the AfD had to fight rigorously against racism and bigotry within its ranks.

And some in the AfD did not want this fight at all.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

January 3rd, 2014: SPD-Leader Rolf Mützenich has called for more calmness in the debate over poverty-driven migration: “I don’t see why this is an issue right now.”
January 5th, 2014: Health Minister Jürgen Rüttgers (CDU) has complained about the shortage of physicians in rural areas and has promoted the idea of a “Country-Doctor-Agreement”, a mechanism that would grant eased access to med school for students who commit to practice in rural areas after they have finished their studies.
January 7th, 2014: Chancellor Merkel reportedly has suffered a pelvic fracture during her winter vacation.
January 8th, 2014: Transport Minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) has laid out more details concerning the introduction of the road toll. Dobrindt plans the introduction of toll discs and reductions of the car tax in combination with special rebates for environmental friendly vehicles. Katrin Göring-Eckard called Dobrindt’s toll plans “mental gymnastics beyond olympic levels.”

© Vincent Eisfeld / nordhausen-wiki.de / CC-BY-SA-4.0

January 9th, 2014: In Athens, Foreign Minister Peter Altmaier (CDU) has appreciated Greece’s progress concerning the overcoming of its financial crisis. “The reforms were hard, but necessary.”
January 10th, 2014: According to recent polling, 68% of Germans approve the statement that the German economy needs immigration. However, 75% of Germans approve the statement that the government does not care enough about the negative effects of immigration.
January 13th, 2014: CSU-Leader Horst Seehofer does not see a national obligation to provide social services to foreign EU-nationals in Germany. “The European Union is no social union,” he stated.
January 13th, 2014: SPD-deputy leader and first mayor of Hamburg, Olaf Scholz, has defended the  establishment of “danger zones” encompassing the red-light districts of the city centre, in which a curfew was imposed and stop and frisk rules were put into effect as a result of recent attacks on law enforcement officials.
January 13th, 2014: Former Lower-Saxonian Prime Minister David McAllister will be the CDU’s top candidate for the upcoming European elections. McAllister had been prime minister of Lower-Saxony from 2010 until the regional election in early 2013, when the SPD-Green coalition gained a majority of one seat in the regional parliament.
January 14th, 2014: The US-government will reportedly not sign a No-Spy-Agreement with the German government. Government officials and opposition politicians are outraged.
RECENT POLLING +++
GERMANS DIVIDED ON SEEHOFER’S STANCES ON IMMIGRATION

Do you think poverty-driven migration is a problem?

Yes ……… 51%
No ………. 43%

If the 19th Bundestag was elected today, who would you vote for? (± compared to the previous poll)

Christian Democratic/Social Union (CDU/CSU) ……. 37% (-3%)
Social Democratic Party (SPD) ……. 29% (+2%)
The LEFT (LINKE) …….. 8% (no change)
Alliance ‘90/Greens (B’90/Grüne) …….. 7% (-1%)
Free Democratic Party (FDP) ……... 3% (-1%)
Alternative for Germany (AfD) …….. 5% (no change)
others ……... 11%

If you were able to vote for the chancellor directly, who would you vote for? (± compared to the previous poll)

Angela Merkel ………. 45 (-6%)
Rolf Mützenich ………. 40% (+5%)
Gregor Gysi ……… 3% (no change)

If the election for the European Parliament were held today, who would you vote for? (± compared to the previous poll)

Christian Democratic/Social Union (CDU/CSU) ……. 39% (+1.1%)
Social Democratic Party (SPD) ……. 29% (+9%)
The LEFT (LINKE) …….. 8% (+0.5%)
Alliance ‘90/Greens (B’90/Grüne) …….. 8% (-3.9%)
Free Democratic Party (FDP) ……... 3% (-8%)
Alternative for Germany (AfD) …….. 5%(new)

Out of the presumtive top-candidates for the European election, who do you prefer?

Martin Schulz (SPD) ………. 21%
David McAllister (CDU) ……… 15%
Bernd Lucke (AfD) ……… 8%
Others/Don’t Know ……… 56%
January 18th, 2014: Volker Bouffier (CDU) was re-election for a second term as Hessian Prime Minister. He will lead a CDU-Green coalition. It is only the second CDU-Green coalition in the history of the Federal Republic.
January 19th, 2014: SPD-Leader Rolf Mützenich urged Justice Minister Herman Gröhe (CDU) to stop the preparation of a new data-retention-law. “The NSA-scandal has taught us that data is a valuable possession that the government must be very careful with,” he stated.
January 20th, 2014: Martin Schulz (SPD), the president of the European parliament, announced his intention to seek the Party of European Socialists’s nomination for president of the European commission.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

January 24th, 2014: Amid violent protests, Ukrainian President Janukowitsch has promised reforms. The opposition meanwhile has stated that it will not support an agreement with the Ukrainian government.
January 25th, 2014: Bernd Lucke was elected as the AfD’s top-candidate for the upcoming European election.
January 26th, 2014: Martin Schulz was elected as the SPD’s top-candidate for the upcoming European election. During a special party conference in Berlin, the SPD urged for reforms, transforming the EU commission to a European government.

January 27th, 2014

Cem


Source: Heinrich Böll Stiftung, Cem Özdemir im Interview. CC BY-SA 2.0 via Wikimedia

The reform of the Renewable-Energy-Act (EEG) was the first real battle of the new Bundestag that the Greens could actually benefit from, but it was boring as hell.

Sure, tempers were running high as the Federal Government was on the verge of altering the whole basis for the transition to renewable energy sources, but boy, it was a very technical issue, an issue that you needed a lot of knowledge for, it was dry math, and Cem Özdemir knew that it was very hard to make good TV out of that debate. That was why he asked his parliamentary group to let him speak in the debate.

Environment Minister Artur Auernhammer was not exactly a very captivating person. In his deep Bavarian tone, he recited a long list of details of the new bill. He talked about “energy corridors,” “pay-as-you-go funding systems,” and “competition-oriented government.” This was not something the public could understand, and the rest of the opposition was not really helpful. Matthias Miersch,  the SPD’s frontman on environmental issues brought up valid critique but forgot that he spoke in a plenary session and not in an expert committee. And Hubertus Zdebel (LEFT) did not really have a face you wanted to see on TV.

This is basically what the EEG is about: It provides subsidies for all companies and individuals who produce electricity using renewable energy sources. Wind turbines or solar panels, for example. The  electricity companies are obligated to buy this energy and sell their electricity on the market. If the market-price for electricity falls below a certain threshold, the government will pay subsidies to the producers. These subsidies are financed via a levy.

But now, the government changed the way the whole thing worked. The reform they introduced a cap on yearly renewable energy sources that are granted government subsidies, and it introduced a tendering process to determine the amount of government support. For the Greens, this was unacceptable, and Özdemir was about to make that pretty clear.

“Minister Auernhammer,” he exclaimed, “is the wrecking ball of the energy revolution in Germany!”

But Özdemir still wanted to drag the Greens toward the center. Ideological arguments had no place here. If he wanted to win the political center, he had to give a speech for the political center.

“The Union claims that this reform will ease the energy revolution for the economy. They are 1 percent right and 99 percent wrong. The one percent of companies, the big consumers, are still exempt from paying the energy-levy, and the 99 percent aren’t. And now, you are introducing a tendering process and make it impossible for small and middle class investors and small and middle class companies to calculate their costs. You punish those who carry the economy on their shoulders. The Union is bad for the economy!”

January 29th, 2014: Foreign Minister Altmaier (CDU) has welcomed the resignation of Ukrainian Prime Minister Arsarow as an “important step towards the political compromise.”
January 31st, 2014: Minister for Economic Cooperation Thomas de Maizière (CDU) was criticized today for using inadequate language during a state visit in Namibia, marking the 110th anniversary of the Herero and Nama genocide committed by German colonial forces. De Maizière refused to call the killing of ten thousands Herero and Nama a ‘genocide’: “The Herero and Nama saw a terrible … terrible act committed by the German Empire that the Federal Republic is appalled of and distances itself from very strongly.”
February 3rd, 2014: SPD-General Secretary Natascha Kohnen called for stronger punishments for tax evasion. Tax evaders remain currently unpunished if they indict themselves voluntarily.
February 4th, 2014: Chancellor Angela Merkel and Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan have met in Berlin. Erdogan demanded more international support regarding the rising number of Syrian refugees. He stated that while his government has spent at least 2.5 billion dollars for the reception of 700.000 Syrian refugees, he received only 130 million dollars from the United Nations. Merkel assured that the German government will try to garner support within the European Union to provide more money to Turkey. “Germany has taken 28.000 Syrian refugees since 2011. In a European perspective, this number is high,” she stated. “Compared to Turkey, it is pretty low. Turkey does a great job in handling the humanitarian crisis that follows the civil war in Syria.”
February 7th, 2014: In a leaked phone call, Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland has called to “f**k the EU.” Chancellor Merkel commented the statement as “absolutely unacceptable.” This incident further worsened the already charged relations between the US and Germany.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

February 9th, 2014: SPD health expert Karl Lauterbach has criticized Health Minister Jürgen Rüttgers (CDU) for refusing to make the morning-after pill obtainable without prescription. Karen Lay (LINKE) joined the criticism by stating that Rüttgers refusal was “infantilizing all women in this country.”
February 12th, 2014: The opposition has criticized the government for proposing a pay increase of 10 percent for members of the Bundestag.
February 13th, 2014: EU-Parliamentary President Martin Schulz (SPD) has defended his speech in the Israeli Knesset. During his speech, he has urged the Israeli government to show more generosity towards Palestinians. Members of the party ‘Jewish Home’ have subsequently left parliament. “I have given a pro-Israel speech,’ Schulz stated, “but I am not obligated to support everything the Israeli government does.”

February 14th, 2014

Angela

Merkel was long enough in the game to understand that there were plenty of scandals a politician could survive. Anything related to child pornography was not one of them.

“He did what?” she asked after being briefed on the matter. She stood there in silence for several seconds, staring in disbelief at Helge Braun, the chief of her chancellery.

Then, she immediately grabbed her telephone and called Horst Seehofer. She could not do anything without his permission, as Seehofer had the say about who the CSU would put in the cabinet. But Merkel did not call to ask.

“Friedrich is out. I will tell him. He has no choice. You better think about a replacement.”

Seehofer sighted. “Yes, I know.”

“We have to act really quick here,” Merkel stated. That was a statement that you would not expect from Merkel.

BREAKING NEWS +++
VICE-CHANCELLOR FRIEDRICH UNDER PRESSURE AS NEW INFORMATION POURS IN CONCERNING CHILD-PORNOGRAPHY-SCANDAL

Source: Freud, Bundesinnenminister Hans-Peter Friedrich. CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia.

Vice-Chancellor and Interior Minister Hans-Peter Friedrich (CSU) is under pressure after the Hanoverian district attourney released new information accusing Friedrich of unlawful disclosure of secret information.

The information mentioned above is in relation to the new allegations concerning SPD-MP Sebastian Edathy, who is accused of having bought child pornography. Edathy has resigned on February 7th. Since then, the police has searched his apartment and his office in the Bundestag.

Yesterday, reports claimed that in October, Interior Minister Friedrich was informed about the investigation and had shared his knowledge with several members of the leadership of the SPD. By doing so, Friedrich has shared secret information. The Hanoverian district attorney’s office has announced that it will possibly indict the Vice-Chancellor as his actions were unlawful and could possibly have hindered the investigation.

Friedrich has stated that he plans to remain in office but is willing to resign if he is indicted.

Angela

“This is absolutely unacceptable and I think you know that,” Merkel said to her Vice-Chancellor.

“I already promised that I will resign if I am indicted.”

“You’re not gonna wait,” she told him. “You’re out.”

“I am what?”

“You’re out of the cabinet. You just lost your post. Seehofer approves. He wants you out, too. So you’re gonna submit your resignation to the Federal President immediately or I will.” The Chancellor had the rarely used power to oust a minister without their approval, and Friedrich knew, that Merkel was not afraid to use that power. She already did in the past.

“I wanted to be generous with our political opponent,” he explained. “Because I believe in a fair game.”

“Well, the next time you want to be generous to your political opponents, write a god-damned post card for their birthdays like everyone else does!”

February 14th, 2014: Vice-Chancellor Friedrich (CSU) has announced his immediate resignation. Economy Minister Hans Michelbach (CSU) was commissioned to lead the Interior Ministry until a successor is appointed. Friedrich thanked Merkel and Seehofer for their support and stated: “I’ll be back.”
February 16th, 2014: Former MP Sebastian Edathy (SPD) has denied any accused wrongdoings.
February 17th, 2014: CSU-Leader Horst Seehofer announced that Angela Merkel will asked the Federal President to appoint Markus Söder as Vice-Chancellor and Federal Minister of the Interior today.
BREAKING NEWS +++
MARKUS SÖDER IS OUR NEW VICE-CHANCELLOR

Source: Foto: Michael Lucan, Lizenz: CC-BY-SA 3.0 de

In the presence of Chancellor Merkel and outgoing minister Hans-Peter Friedrich (CSU), Federal President Gauck has appointed Markus Söder (CSU) as the new Federal Minister of the Interior and Vice-Chancellor of the Federal Republic.

The 47-year old has first held government office as Bavarian environment minister from 2008 to 2011. Since 2011, he has been Bavarian minister of finance. Söder is said to be a natural born political talent who has long held aspirations to become Bavarian prime minister. Some speculate that Seehofer is trying to strengthen his own position by sending Söder to Berlin.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

February 19th, 2014: Chancellor Merkel has stated that EU-leaders have agreed on imposing sanctions on the Ukrainian government, citing violent conflicts in the country between government and opposition.
February 20th, 2014: The Bundestag was in chaos today when a debate between the Greens and the LEFT on the issue of the protests in the Ukraine escalated. Sevim Dagdelen (LEFT), who was not present in the plenary session, criticized the Greens via Twitter for not having denounced fascist and antisemitic forced within the Ukrainian opposition. Several Green politicians urged the present LEFT-parliamentarians to comment on the tweet, which they refused. Bundestag-President Norbert Lammert called inappropriate to comment on a plenary session at which ones is not present.
February 22th, 2014: Amid violent protests, Ukrainian President Janukowitsch has fled the country. Police and security forces have reportedly sided with the opposition. The Ukrainian parliament subsequently removed Janukowitsch from office. Former Ukrainian prime minister and presidential candidate, Julia Tymoschenko, has been released from prison. Chancellor Merkel has reportedly congratulated her in a phone call.
February 26th, 2014: The Federal Constitutional Court has abolished the three percent threshold for the next European elections. Like in general and statewide elections, Germany had a 5 percent threshold for European elections until it was ruled unconstitutionally in 2011. Then, the Bundestag introduced a three percent threshold for European elections. The new ruling could potentially lead to many small parties winning seats in the next German delegation.
February 27th, 2014: Russia has stationed 2000 soldiers on the Crimea. The regional government, which denies the legality of the new Ukrainian government, has openly discussed a secession from the Ukraine.

Source: Elizabeth Arrott / VOA. Public Domain.

March 4th, 2014: Russian president Putin has called for the West to respect the sovereignty of the Crimean people. Russian Foreign Minister Lawrow has meanwhile denied that the soldiers on the Crimea are sent by the Russian government.

March 7th, 2014

Angela

She could hardly get any sleep. The last two weeks were a hassle. The EU-Leaders were up all day, all night, discussing the European reaction regarding the events on the Crimea. This is not how she had expected her third term to start.

She had a special relationship with Russia. The grew up in the socialist East and was fluent in Russian. When she and Putin met, they both spoke in each others native language. Did they like each other? Not in particular. Did they respect each other? Quite a lot. Putin had a lot of respect for Merkel, and Merkel respected Putin. It was natural for some EU members that Merkel should lead European crisis-containment efforts. But she wanted a mandate from all EU members. After she had taken the lead in the Euro crisis, she was concerned with Germany’s international image.

She could have never imagined that her biggest problem during this whole crisis would be Horst Seehofer.

She slowly shook her head when she watched his press conference. “We must not forget that Russia is a part of our joint European history, our joint European culture. We will not let the decision makers in Brussels dictate our foreign policy. Never must our diplomatic efforts turn into hostility. Thus, I will, as leader of the CSU, never approve of any sanctions towards our Russian friends.”

And that was it. That was the end of the European sanctions toward Russia. Without the approval of the CSU, Germany could not approve, and without German approval, it was over.

She called her vice-chancellor, Markus Söder. “Please tell Horst Seehofer that when he decides to mess with EU polics the next time, he better tells me in advance.”

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Oh goddamn Seehofer. Bad move!

Also can you explain why exactly the CSU wants a road toll? Thanks!

The road toll was by far the stupidest government policy the German government has pursued in recent years and it was rooted in the CSU's borderline xenophobia.

They developed the idea before the Bavarian elections in 2013, which happend right before the general election. Bavaria borders both Austria and Switzerland and is quite close to Italy. They claimed that if the Bavarian tourists have to pay a road toll in Austria, Switzerland, and Italy, then the Ausrian, the foreigners coming to Germany should also pay a road toll. But while road toll in Austria, Switzerland and Italy applies to both domestic and foreign vehicles, the CSU wanted a road toll that only foreigners should have to pay - no extra burden on the Germans. That's why everyone called it the Ausländermaut - the foreigner-toll.

It did, after all, not come into effect. Before it was sacked by the European Court of Justice in 2019, the German government waisted an enormous of money on this project. The road toll has waisted so much time and effort that we still don't know the financial damage this thing has caused us.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

March 7th, 2014: Many CDU-politicians lashed out at Horst Seehofer (CSU) for blocking European sanctions on Russia.
March 7th, 2014: The German government admitted that often European responsibilities regarding the reception of refugees are not respected. According to EU-law, states to not have to accept refugees if they have set foot in another EU-state before. However, Germany does not deport refugees to Greece due to inadequate living conditions for refugees in the EU-border state.
March 11th, 2014: The Crimean parliament has declared independence.
March 16th, 2014: The Crimea has in a referendum, with over 96 percent of the vote, agreed to join the Russian federation.
March 17th, 2014: CSU-Leader Horst Seehofer has called the Crimean referendum “illegitimate”, but stated: “If there was an internationally observed referendum with fair conditions, I think we should grant the Crimean people the chance to determine their own fate.”
March 20th , 2014: The crisis in Ukraine has lead to a schism in the opposition. The LEFT argues that SPD and Greens downplay the role of fascist forces in the new Ukrainian government. SPD and Greens counter that they support the Ukrainian government but denounce fascist parties.

March 22nd, 2014
Bernd

Source: Olaf Kosinsky/Skillshare.eu

This party is a god-damned disaster, Bernd thought. And I must be its leader.

The AfD’s party conference, its second within two months, was stuck in unnecessary debates about convention rules and arguments about statutes because, for some reason Bernd Lucke was not aware of, the lower places on the party lists were still highly competitive and everybody wanted to say something. But that only took valuable time.

Time was precious. Because this conference would be the conference where he should take the lead.

The AfD had three co-leaders: Bernd Lucke, Frauke Petry and Konrad Adam. Adam was a bland and old figure who was expected to disappear soon, Lucke and Petry were arch-enemies. Lucke was a liberal-conservative, Petry was a right-wing populist. The only way for the AfD to survive was to step in the void the FDP had deserted. The AfD must become the party of freedom. But Petry wanted to drag the party to the right. But Lucke had enough.

This conference, he raised to motion to abolish the co-leader concept. Then, he would run for leader immediately afterwards.

Not everyone was fond of this idea. In fact, it was highly controversial. Petry was against it. Adam was against it. Regional chapters of the party were against it. But Lucke was bound to fight for his motion, because he knew it was his only chance.

“We are the alternative – policy-wise, yes. But in order to be part of the political discourse, we must be seen as a serious party. And in order to be seen as a serious party, we must act like one. The only way in that direction is to stop this dangerous affiliation with extremist figures and to elect a leader who has the heart, the spirit and the competence to lead.”

And with 735 to 344, to motion passed. Not because everyone liked what Lucke had to say, but also because Petry came out in support of this motion and announced her candidacy.

“The AfD is a new force, a truly German party. We are not afraid to talk about the problems of this country. We are not afraid to call out Merkel for her effort to drag our country to the left. We need an alternative. We ARE the alternative.”

In the end, it might have been luck, it might have been name-recognition, it might have been the fact that the election were so damn near, but he won. By a hair.

He had the control. For now.
March 24th , 2014: The G7 have officially expelled the Russian Federation from the group.
March 29th, 2014: In the light of the crisis in Ukraine, Chancellor Merkel has visited Russian President Putin.
April 2nd, 2014: Due to forbidden price agreements, the federal cartel office has imposed fees of an accumulated amount of 230 Million Euros on several beer companies.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

So are people still interested in this?