The Iron Frau - A German Politics Timeline
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Amanda Huggenkiss
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« on: April 16, 2020, 05:45:20 AM »
« edited: July 06, 2020, 03:21:54 AM by amanda dermichknutscht »

The Iron Frau
A German Politics Timeline


Angela Merkel
Armin Linnartz [CC BY-SA 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

September 22nd, 2013

There was little doubt that the Christian-conservative Union parties, whose leader, Angela Merkel, sought re-election, would win with quite a lead. But nobody expected by how much support the German people would grant Merkel a third term as German chancellor.

The 6 pm exit polls shocked the nation. Union Parties at a staggering 42 percent. Social Democrats presumably below 26 percent. Greens and Left Party both presumably between 8 and 9 percent. The Free Democrats, the longest governing party in the history of the Federal Republic and Merkel’s coalition partner, seemed to have dropped out of parliament for the first time, as it fell short of the required 5 percent. And the Alternative for Germany, a new national-conservative party, was about to gain a respectable result but was not really a threat.

But when the shock was processed and the first results came in, the math started. What would these results mean for Germany? Who would join Merkel’s government? Would she even govern? Would the SPD dare to form a leftist coalition? Or would she even need a coalition partner?

No, that can’t be! The last time a single party won a majority of seats was in the 1950s! Germany was always governed by coalitions. But as the results poured in and the seats were calculated … Union 5 seats short … Union 2 seats short … Union 2 seats majority … Union one seat short … Union 3 seats short … Union one seat short … the result was a majority of five.

Merkel’s CDU/CSU would gain 315 seats of 619 seats total. She would be the first chancellor since Konrad Adenauer to lead an absolute majority all by herself – the first chancellor in two generations.

The power would be all hers.
But Angela Merkel was in a panic.


Author's Note and Explanation
Merkel's third term is probably her most remarkable term (2013-2017). She started as a calm, somewhat boring but popular chancellor and ended as a very polarizing figure. The political right hates her due to her handling of the refugee crisis, the world admires her as she is hailed as the new leader of the free world. In 2013, she won re-election with a remarkable result, but her coalition partner dropped out of parliament. She subsequently formed a grand coalition with the social democrats, as she was very few seats short of a majority. That is the thing I will alter. I will ask the question: What happens when Merkel's Union parties gain an absolute majority? How would the German government be different? What will the effect be on Europe and on the world? How would Merkel deal with all the international crises? I try to write this timeline as accessible as possible for all who are not that well informed about German politics, and I will happily answer all questions that arise when reading this timeline. Have fun!

T A B L E   O F   C O N T E N T S
PART I (September 22nd 2013 - October 1st 2014): The absolute majority, Mützenich becomes SPD-leader, the European elections, the NSA scandal, the Crimean crisis, the first election successes of the AfD, the rightward drift of CDU and CSU
PART II: following soon...
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #1 on: April 16, 2020, 05:50:27 AM »

good start for a TL! this is a scenario I've pondered multiple times beforehand.
How does the SPD react to this? What about the FDP or Greens?
And ouch...is 310/619 close...
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Amanda Huggenkiss
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« Reply #2 on: April 16, 2020, 05:55:25 AM »

good start for a TL! this is a scenario I've pondered multiple times beforehand.
How does the SPD react to this? What about the FDP or Greens?
And ouch...is 310/619 close...

Thank you! And you spotted the first typo. It should be 315/619, which is still close.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #3 on: April 16, 2020, 06:02:40 AM »

good start for a TL! this is a scenario I've pondered multiple times beforehand.
How does the SPD react to this? What about the FDP or Greens?
And ouch...is 310/619 close...

Thank you! And you spotted the first typo. It should be 315/619, which is still close.
Ah, true. Still close, but with considerably more leeway. Kohl in 1994 had less wiggle-room and he managed it...
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Continential
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« Reply #4 on: April 16, 2020, 07:03:08 AM »

Does the AfD gain seats?
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Amanda Huggenkiss
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« Reply #5 on: April 16, 2020, 07:41:23 AM »


In reality and in this timeline, not in the 2013-election. The alteration will be very minimal. I have shifted just a few seats and very few percentage points to the Union parties, just enough to grant them an absolute majority. Remember that the absolute majority was only possible because ~15% of the vote were not represented in the Bundestag. I even some election coverage in 2013 temporarily projecting slim absolute majorities for the Union, so this is not a far fetched idea. I will provide full results in the next post.

I also just did the math to calculate the results needed for an event in which both the AfD gain seats AND the Union gains an absolute majority. The CDU/CSU would have needed ~45% (IRL 41.5%).
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
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« Reply #6 on: April 16, 2020, 04:24:18 PM »

Please continue and welcome to the forum.
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Orwell
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« Reply #7 on: April 16, 2020, 09:34:48 PM »

Please continue and welcome to the forum.
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Amanda Huggenkiss
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« Reply #8 on: April 17, 2020, 06:51:38 AM »
« Edited: July 06, 2020, 03:13:51 AM by amanda dermichknutscht »

PART I

Results of the 18th election to the Bundestag, September 22nd, 2013


Christian Conservative Union Parties (CDU/CSU) ~ 42.5% (+8.7%) ~ 315 seats
Christian Democratic Union (CDU): 34.6%; Christian Social Union (CSU) [Bavaria only]: 7.9%
Social Democratic Party (SPD) ~ 25.2% (+2.2%) ~ 184 seats
The Left (LINKE) ~ 8.3% (-3.6%) ~ 61 seats
Alliance 90/Greens (B’90/Grüne) ~ 8.1% (-2.6%) ~ 59 seats

Below the threshold (5%):

Free Democratic Party (FDP) ~ 4.6% (-10.0%)
Alternative for Germany (AfD) ~ 4.3% (new)


September 23rd, 2013: Vice-Chancellor Philipp Rösler announced his immediate resignation as leader of the FDP following its historic election defeat. “I want to apologize to all of our members for failing to promote the liberal cause, the cause for freedom.” The FDP’s top candidate, Rainer Brüderle, announced the end of his political career. “The FDP needs a fundamental change that goes beyond the optics.”

September 23rd, 2013: Although it has lost 3.6 percent of votes, the LEFT is satisfied with its election result. “We have withstood the polarization between Union and SPD,” Co-Leader Katja Kipping stated. Parliamentary Leader Gregor Gysi said: “We are now the third-strongest political force in this country. This is an enormous success.”

September 23rd, 2013: After 11 years as co-leader of Alliance’90/Greens, Claudia Roth has announced her resignation, following a disappointing election result. Renate Künast, co-leader of the parliamentary group, has also announced her resignation. Their respective co-leaders, Cem Özdemir as party leader and Jürgen Trittin as top candidate and parliamentary leader, have not yet indicated that they would step back.

September 23rd, 2013: Bernd Lucke, co-leader of the AfD, called the party’s election result an “enormous success” and showed optimism regarding the European and regional elections next year.

September 23rd, 2013: SPD-Leader Sigmar Gabriel raised eyebrows when he stated that the “SPD is ready to serve and wants to take political responsibility.” The SPD’s failed candidate for chancellor, Peer Steinbrück, commented: “I think it would not be a good idea for the SPD not enter a grand coalition under these circumstances. At least I wont.” Gabriel later clarified his comments, stating that “the SPD is ready to take responsibility, but we see that Angela Merkel and the Union have the mandate.”


September 23rd, 2013

Angela

On the day after the election, the CDU party committee asked Merkel what the next steps should look like. She did not know an answer. No, that can’t be possible, she thought, how could she, a girl who grew up in the Eastern German dictatorial regime and who was belittled when she entered Chancellor Kohl’s government, who was caricatured all her life, who had to stand her ground against the men of German conservative politics, be able to push aside all the members of the old West German conservative guard, be elected the first female chancellor of Germany, and become the crisis manager of the nation? How could she become “Mutti” - “mommy”?

Merkel was not a risk-taker. Merkel always took her time. And Merkel always wanted to play safe. Always wanted to govern by consensus. She liked to share power, because that meant that she could share blame. She was a conservative, but by no means an ideologist. She was a rational centrist, a moderate, a moderator. A technocrat. In her two terms, she had to deal with two vastly different coalition partners. From 2005 to 2009 with the center-left Social Democrats in a grand coalition, and from 2009 to 2013 with the market-loving Free Democratic Party. For her, both worked just fine. But now, forming a coalition was pointless.

Horst

When Horst Seehofer was asked by a journalist whether the Union would govern alone or form a coalition, he answered: “If I didn’t want as much Union as possible, I wouldn’t be in the Union.” Seehofer had all the right to resent the formation of a new coalition. After all, he was in the position Merkel was exactly a week ago. He was leader of Merkel’s Bavarian sister party, the Christian-Social Union – not a regional branch of her party, but a whole different party, engaging in electoral pacts and bound together in government and in opposition with the CDU since the early days of the republic. Since 2008, Seehofer also was the Bavarian prime minister.

For him and the CSU, coalitions were not just an annoying necessity, they were a sign of weakness. In 2008, when his party called on his help, it had just lost the absolute majority it had held in the Barvarian parliament for decades. For five years, Seehofer had to share power with the Bavarian FDP, which had for decades only occasionally made it into the Bavarian parliament. But a week ago, Seehofer’s new populist-conservative CSU regained the majority. Seehofer did not even spend a second about forming a coalition. That was the way it should be. He didn’t understand why Merkel was struggling. Yes, the five vote majority was rather slim, but both Merkel and Seehofer had their parties behind their backs.

It is only natural that Seehofer resented the idea of forming a coalition on a national level. After all, there was not a full set of options, as there were only three parties left, and there were all, well, to the Union’s left. The CSU was notoriously more right-wing than the CDU. The LEFT Party was no option. Those were the socialists. The grubby urchins. The soviet lovers. Then, there were the Greens. There had never been in a coalition with the Union on a national level. That was not the time for such an experiment. Sure, they have moved significantly to the center in recent decades, but why make experiments when everything is so safe? Lastly, there was the SPD. They still felt traumatized after their devastating performance in the 2009 election which they blamed on the grand coalition with Merkel. If the SPD wanted to sell a potential grand coalition to their members, they would have to fight hard in the negotiations. They would claim important ministries such as finance, economy, interior, work and social security. Steinmeier, the German’s favorite social democrat, would return as foreign minister. And they would push for their leftist ideas: a minimum wage, federal rent control, gay marriage.

For Merkel, a coalition was more than politics. It was about governing by majority. It was about inclusion. In the socialist east, she had experience one-party-rule. And coalition were safer (five seats, she often thought, five seats). But Seehofer did not want to hear that. “The CSU will not join a coalition”, he said to Merkel. “We don’t need a coalition. The German people wanted the Union. And they should get the Union.”

The last word was spoken.
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America Needs R'hllor
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« Reply #9 on: April 17, 2020, 09:28:35 AM »

A German politics TL? Yass!
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Amanda Huggenkiss
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« Reply #10 on: April 18, 2020, 01:09:28 AM »

September 24th, 2013: Hessian Prime Minister Volker Bouffier (CDU) is elaborating possible governing options. The Hessian regional elections, which took place parallel to the federal elections, produced no clear majority. The CDU-FDP government failed to secure a majority in the regional parliament. His CDU will hold talks with the significantly strengthened SPD and the slightly weakened Greens.

September 24th, 2013: The President of the Bundestag, Norbert Lammert, has announced that the new parliament will convene on October 7th, 2013. The constitution requires a new parliament to convene within a month after the election. In recent elections, this time span has always been fully exhausted in order to facilitate government building. Lammert argued that this was not necessary this time and that the new Bundestag could convene earlier.

September 24th, 2013: Christian Lindner has announced his intention to run for the leadership of the FDP. Former Leader Philipp Rösler has supported the candidacy of the 34 year old former general secretary.

September 25th, 2013: Jürgen Trittin has announced his resignation as parliamentary leader of the Greens. His co-leader, Renate Künast, has declared her intention to resign yesterday. Their successors will presumably be Trittin’s fellow top-candidate Katrin Göring-Eckard and the party-leftist Anton Hofreiter. Volker Kauder (CDU), Frank-Walter Steinmeier (SPD) and Gregor Gysi (LINKE) have secured the support for re-election as parliamentary leaders of their respective parties.

September 25th, 2013: Andrea Nahles, general secretary of the SPD, clarified the position of her party. “The SPD will be the leader of the opposition,” she stated.

September 26th , 2013

Sigmar

“So do you want to run again?”, Martin Schulz asked him. Sigmar Gabriel was in serious doubts about that. After all – who should vote for him?

Sigmar Gabriel became the leader of the Social Democratic Party in 2009 after its hurtful election loss. He took the party into opposition. He sought a balance between the pragmatic third-way social democracy that made Schröder chancellor in the late 90s and the new-found love for left-wing policies that was needed to form an authentic antithesis to the conservative-liberal Union/FDP government. In 2013, he did not run for chancellor. He knew he had no chance and sent Steinbrück instead. Peer Steinbrück was the finance minister under Merkel during the financial crash. He was a known and trusted face. But he was also the right of the party. He had to defend an election program that was notably left. And the Northern German was seen as often offhand, clumsy, undiplomatic, grim-faced, uncharismatic. The only social democrat more grim-faced and uncharismatic was Sigmar Gabriel himself. The result were 25.2 percent. Embarrassing. Especially in a year in which the proud SPD celebrated its 150th birthday.

Gabriel’s route was clear: to lead a high profile ministry in a Steinbrück government, to earn the trust of the German people and to take over the chancellorship once Steinbrück is too old (Gabriel was 13 years younger). When it came apparent that Steinbrück had no chance against Merkel due to her insurmountable lead in the polls, he altered his plan: make a Union-FDP-government impossible, earn a respectable election result for the SPD, join a grand coalition under Merkel, occupy a high profile ministry, earn the trust of the German people and run against Merkel in 2017. Now, that path was blocked by exactly five Union-MPs.

And he had no justification for leading the party, either. Martin Schulz, the president of the European Parliament and the SPD’s expert on European matters, was Gabriel’s only real ally. His relationship to the SPD’s general secretary, Andrea Nahles, was bad from the start. She was too feisty, too raspy, too loud, too far left. Steinmeier, the former foreign minister and the leader of the parliamentary SPD, was too popular, too folksy. He didn’t trust his deputy leaders, especially Hannelore Kraft, the prime minister of North-Rhine-Westphalia, and Olaf Scholz, the first mayor of Hamburg. They gained remarkably good election results and Gabriel knew of their ambitions. Additionally, Gabriel was not very well liked by SPD-MPs. Many thought he was unreliably, short-tempered, and that his arrogance was a threat to the party.

And in December, the party convention would decide whether he would be re-elected for two years.

But he was still Gabriel. Gabriel knew how to electrify an audience. He was a fighter. And he knew he had earned his place.

“Yes, I will”, he said.
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« Reply #11 on: April 18, 2020, 08:56:03 AM »

Hoping for the Grune Surge to lead to a Green government here Tongue
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Amanda Huggenkiss
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« Reply #12 on: April 18, 2020, 10:58:56 AM »

Hoping for the Grune Surge to lead to a Green government here Tongue

It will be quite interesting to elaborate how the Green-surge plays out in this scenario. IMO their strong position was supported by the fact that the SPD, being in two grand coalitions, was not able to authentically claim the role as the main center-left party. I think it will be crucial how SPD and Greens behave after the 2017-election in this scenario, which was in reality quite a disappointment for both parties.
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Amanda Huggenkiss
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« Reply #13 on: April 18, 2020, 04:29:08 PM »

September 27th, 2013: Outgoing Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle (FDP) praised the members of the UN Security Council for their joint resolution on the Syrian civil war, denouncing attacks on civilians.

September 27th, 2013: Failed chancellor-candidate Peer Steinbrück announced that while remaining member of the Bundestag, he will not run for other offices. Steinbrück was prime minister of North-Rhine-Westphalia from 2002 to 2005 and federal minister for finance from 2005 to 2009.

September 27th, 2013: Simone Peter, former environment minister in the Saarland, will run unopposed to succeed Claudia Roth as co-leader of Alliance 90/Greens at the party convention in October.

September 28th, 2013: Baden-Württembergain Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann (Green) has criticized top-candidate Jürgen Trittin for running a too-far-left-election campaign. “The Greens must realize that the economy is not the enemy, but the ally,” he stated.

September 29th, 2013: Federal President Joachim Gauck has urged Angela Merkel and Horst Seehofer to swiftly form a government.

September 29th, 2013

Angela

The days after the election were not remotely like Merkel was used to. Usually, after a week or so of political bantering, the parties would come together and discuss the formation of a coalition, first in a small committee, then in various subcommittees, then in one large committee, and then the parties had to approve and sign a coalition treaty. Four years ago, it took the CDU 31 days to form a coalition with the CSU and the FDP. In 2005, in took 65 days to form a government. This time, everything was set and done from day one.

Except it wasn’t.

Merkel sat together with Seehofer, the leader of the CSU, as well as with the general secretaries of their respective parties: Herman Gröhe for the CDU and Alexander Dobrindt for the CSU – two party loyalists who both managed successful election campaigns and who both aspired government positions. The relationship between Merkel and Seehofer was alright. Sometimes feisty in public, but in private, both knew that their combined political force was unstoppable when they saw eye to eye.

Before the election, both parties published a joint election platform. No bold ideas, no polarizing policy. Normal conservative CDU/CSU-stuff. The route was clear. Then, there was the issue of ministries. In the Merkel II government, the CDU hat 7 ministers, the CSU had 3, the FDP had five.  Merkel’s plan was to split the FDP-ministries. The CDU should, in total, receive 10, the CSU five.

“That is not how we would like to distribute the FDP-ministries,” Seehofer announced.

“So, CDU 9, CSU 6?” Gröhe asked.

“No”, Seehofer stated. “We want all of them. CDU 7, CSU 8. And we want to talk about the road toll. We want to have that.”

For Merkel, the road toll was the CSU’s latest pipe dream. In Bavaria, they campaigned on the introduction of a road toll, but solely for foreigners. If we have to pay a road toll in Austria, the CSU had written on an election poster, then the Austrian should pay a road toll in Bavaria. Merkel found this logic so profoundly stupid and incompatible with EU-law that she declined to implement that campaign promise in the joint platform. In the TV-debate against Steinbrück, she made in clear that she would not introduce a road toll. I will not introduce a road toll, she said Steinbrück in the face. She made a promise. But now it was back on the table, and she was speechless.

“That is both unacceptable,” Gröhe stated.

“The absolute majority of the Union is largely a product of the CSU’s strength in Bavaria,” Dobrindt announced. “That is our negotiation standpoint.”

“That is unacceptable,” Gröhe repeated.

“We will look into that,” Merkel finally said unhappily. She remained calm as always, but she felt desperate. Is it always going to be like that? she thought. She knew the game. The FDP, always in hopeless need of victories, was constantly trying to punch above their weight. But this government, unlike her last ones, was dangerously unbalanced, and it tilted to the right.
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Amanda Huggenkiss
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« Reply #14 on: April 20, 2020, 02:31:41 AM »
« Edited: April 21, 2020, 02:20:35 AM by amanda dermichknutscht »

September 30th, 2013: Bavarian Minister Markus Söder (CSU) has argued that the CSU might force the CDU to accept the road toll as government policy. “The road toll is on the table, because everything is on the table.” CDU-General Secretary Gröhe did not deny Söder’s statement, saying that the two parties would “look closely at what’s best for the country.”

October, 1st 2013

Rolf

“This must be a joke,” he said, unbelieving, as Andrea Nahles, the general secretary of the SPD, waited for an answer. She just asked him whether he could imagine to run for the leadership of the SPD. It was not a joke.

“Andrea,” he said, “nobody knows who I am!”

That was not the whole truth. Rolf Mützenich, member of the Bundestag since 2002, was relatively unknown to the public, but he was well-respected with SPD-MPs. Since 2009, he was the foreign policy spokesperson of the parliamentary SPD and was well known for his strong anti-war sentiment. He was to the left of the party, surely, but he had good relationships to the moderates. And his speaking skills were extraordinary. His tone was heroic and statesmanlike. And he was just now the centerpiece of a plot within the SPD to oust Sigmar Gabriel as leader of the party.

“They will get to know you,” Andrea assured him. “We support you.” We – that was the deputy leaders Olaf Scholz and Hannelore Kraft, the parliamentary leader Frank-Walter Steinmeier, and the general secretary Andrea Nahles herself. All of them had enough of Gabriel’s leadership and wanted to replace him. But with whom?

Scholz and Kraft were the obvious choices. In 2011, Olaf Scholz regained Hamburg for the SPD, winning 48 percent of the vote – the best result for any governing party at that time. He had been member of the Bundestag, general secretary, government minister. But in his style, he was an uncanny copy of Merkel. Technocratic, undogmatic, incompassionate. As general secretary, he enraged the party’s left with this attempt to remove the term “democratic socialism” from the party’s platform. The left of the party, including their powerful youth wing, the Young Socialists (Jusos), would fight him tooth and nail.

Hannelore Kraft was different. In 2010, she became prime-minister of North-Rhine-Westphalia in an SPD-Green minority government. In 2012, her coalition triumphed. Kraft was warm and compassionate. She was moderately left. The party loved her. But it was too much of a risk. North-Rhine-Westphalia was hard to govern. Some bad press was inevitable. If she wanted to make a pitch for 2017, she needed to keep her head down until it was time to shine.

Frank-Walter Steinmeier was popular, but Germany made clear that they didn’t want him too eagerly when he ran for chancellor in 2009 and earned the SPD an embarrassing 23 percent of the vote.

Andrea Nahles surely wanted to be leader, but everyone else didn’t want her to be leader. She was constantly being ridiculed by the media, was perceived as too loud, too quirky. She was not ready to be leader, at least not yet, she told herself. So who could it be?

Malu Dreyer, prime minister of Rhineland-Palatine? Sympathetic, but too folksy. Aydan Özoğuz? A lightweight. Klaus Wowereit? A charming personality, but really not a good mayor of Berlin anymore. Manuela Schwesig? Charismatic, but has no experience. Gesine Schwan? Too sophisticated. Hubertus Heil? Professional, but contaminated. Thomas Opperman? Eager, but bland.

Rolf Mützenich? It’s worth a try.

“This is not about the chancellorship,” Andrea assured him. “We will decide who gets to run for chancellor by the end of 2016, or early 2017. This is solely about the party leadership.”

“Let me talk to my wife about that,” he said.

Mützenich talked to his wife about that. He was about to oust Sigmar Gabriel as leader of the SPD.

October 2nd, 2013: The outgoing Hessian minister of education Nicola Beer (FDP) was nominated as the next general secretary of the FDP. The 34 year old pleaded to set a larger focus on social issues. “The German people did not vote against the liberal cause, they voted against what they perceived as a party for the rich.”

October 3nd, 2013: French industry minister Montebourg has criticized the German government for refusing to introduce a federal minimum wage, accusing Germany to weaken the competitiveness of other European countries by allowing low wages.

October 3nd, 2013: At least 133 refugees have died following a boat accident near Lampedusa, Italy.
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« Reply #15 on: April 21, 2020, 02:49:27 AM »

October 3rd, 2013

SPIEGEL ONLINE +++ BREAKING
THIS IS OUR NEW GOVERNMENT

Angela Merkel and Horst Seehofer have proposed their nominees for the federal cabinet. The CDU occupies nine ministries, the CSU six. Wolfgang Schäuble, Ursula von der Leyen and Johanna Wanka have been re-appointed as ministers of finance, labor and social affairs, and education, respectively. Hans-Peter Friedrich, minister for the interior, is the only CSU-minister to be re-appointed. He will become Angela Merkel’s vice-chancellor.

Peter Altmaier, environment minister since 2012, will become the next foreign minister. Thomas de Maizière, former minister of the interior (2009-2011) and defense (2011-2013) has also changed his ministry and will be the next minister for economic development. Christina Schröder, Ronald Pofalla (both CDU), Ilse Aigner and Peter Raumsauer (both CSU) will not be part of the next cabinet.

The CSU has occupied a number of important ministries. Hans Michelbach will become the next minister for economic affairs. De Maizière’s successor in the defense department will be Reinhard Brandl. Dorothee Bär, the CSU’s 35-year old rising star, will be the next minister for family, seniors, women and youth. The CSU’s general secretary Alexander Dobrindt will be Peter Ramsauer’s successor in the ministry for transport, building, urban affairs. The ministry will be expanded and will include digital infrastructure. Artur Auhammer will become Altmaier’s successor as minister for environment, nature conservation and nuclear safety.

The new CDU ministers are Johannes Röring as minister for agriculture, food and consumer protection, former North-Rhine-Westphalian Prime Minister Jürgen Rüttgers as minister for health, and Helge Braun as the head of the federal chancellery.

Chancellor: Angela Merkel (CDU)
Vice-Chancellor and Minister for the Interior: Hans-Peter Friedrich (CSU)
Minister for Foreign Affairs: Peter Altmaier (CDU)
Minister of Justice: Hermann Gröhe (CDU)
Minister of Finance: Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU)
Minister for Economic Affairs: Hans Michelbach (CSU)
Minister for Labor and Social Affairs: Ursula von der Leyen (CDU)
Minister for Agriculture, Food and Consumer Protection: Johannes Röring (CDU)
Minister of Defense:Reinhard Brandl (CSU)
Minister for Family, Seniors, Women and Youth: Dorothee Bär (CSU)
Minister for Health: Jürgen Rüttgers(CDU)
Minister for Transport, Building, Urban Affairs and Digital Infrastructure: Alexander Dobrindt (CSU)
Minister for Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety: Artur Auernhammer (CSU)
Minister for Education and Research: Johanna Wanka (CDU)
Minister for Economic Development: Thomas de Maizière (CDU)
Minister for Special Tasks and Head of the Federal Chancellery: Helge Braun (CDU)

Thomas
[/size]

“This is awful. I am f***ed.”

“This is the end of my political career!” he exclaimed. He, Thomas de Maizière, former minister for the interior and minister of defence, has just been named as minister for economic development.

“And now,” he said, “don’t try to sell it as an opportunity or something like that. This is a demotion. This is a slap in the face.”

“I hear that”, said Julia Klöckner, the 41 year old deputy leader of the CDU and Merkel’s protegée. “I know it’s bad. But this is the way it is. The pressure came from the CSU. They wanted eight ministries, plus road toll. Angela negotiated them down to six, plus road toll. But they wanted some big ones.”

“And I am the one who will be ousted,” de Maizière stated.

“You’re not ousted,” Klöckner responded. “She wants you to be in the cabinet. But the CSU wanted defence plus interior.”

“Then why did Altmaier get foreign affairs and I didn’t? He’s been in the last cabinet for only a year! And what about Gröhe? He’s got absolutely no profile!”

“Angela has a very high opinion of Altmaier. And she thinks that Gröhe deserves that spot. He’s lead the general election campaign, and as you know, he got us the majority. Ursula and Wolfgang are indispensable, and so are you.”

Thomas reluctantly agreed. But he would never forgive Merkel that act of disloyalty.

October 4th, 2013: In the light of the tragedy near Lampedusa, Federal President Gauck urged the European Union to provide better protection and shelter for refugees. Aydan Özoğuz (SPD deputy leader) prompted the federal government to be more involved in refugee policy. Interior minister Hans-Peter Friedrich (CSU) stated that the European Union should do more against human trafficking.

October 6th, 2013: A debate has erupted within the AfD concerning the inclusion of members who were formally active in right-wing populist fringe parties. While AfD leader Bernd Lucke argues that the AfD is a “liberal-conservative reform party that must protected from infiltration by right-wing extremists”, his co-leader Frauke Petry warned against categorical exclusion and underscored similarities between the AfD and other smaller parties.
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« Reply #16 on: April 22, 2020, 03:25:48 AM »

October 6th, 2013

Sigmar

The evening before inaugural meeting of the newly elected Bundestag, Andrea Nahles arranged a meeting with Gabriel and Steinmeier, the newly re-elected leader of the parliamentary SPD. Gabriel expected a discussion about the party’s strategy concerning the election of Angela Merkel the following day. For opposition parties, it was natural to vote against the candidate of the governing parties, but in most cases, this opposition was purely formal, as the discipline concerning important votes was very strong in the Bundestag. But Merkel’s majority was very small. What would the SPD do if Merkel failed to secure a majority?

But that was not the reason for the meeting, and Gabriel knew that from the moment he learned that Deputy Leader Olaf Scholz would also attend the meeting. He was not a member of parliament.

“We want to be quite frank with you,” Steinmeier stated. “We think that both in the parliamentary SPD and in the party committee, there are serious doubts about you leading the party.”

“There always were,” Gabriel responded. “I know that I am not a person who is likely to get unanimous approval.”

“The approval is not just not unanimous,” Scholz said, “but we would estimate that there is not even a majority in the party conference that would support you.”

And then Gabriel did something very Gabriel-esque. He grunted, he shook his head, and then he began to argue. “Whose opinion is that? Which members are you talking about? Why haven’t they taken responsibility four years ago? Why haven’t they addressed me directly?”

He paused for a moment, and then asked the only question he actually wanted to be answered. “Who do they want to replace me, then?”

“Mützenich,” Nahles answered.

“Mützenich,” Gabriel repeated. “And he is on board? Let’s call for a conference, then. Set up a meeting. I want to talk to those who have concerns.” Usually, Gabriel would have been smarter. He would have seen that he had no chance, because he begged. And if you have to beg in politics, Gabriel knew, you have already lost. But this was different. This was about his career.

“We wanted to be candid to you”, Steinmeier said. “Mützenich is more popular within the parliamentary SPD. The party needs a turning point, and that means that the party needs a new face. At least for now.”

“Let’s keep our mouths shut for now,” Nahles proposed, “and make all the necessary announcements when they’re due.”

Gabriel showed no reaction, but he found everything that happened deeply unfair. Of course the general election was lost, but he was not the chancellor-candidate. And in regional elections, the SPD faired pretty well since he was leader.

I promised that I’d run again, he thought. I will run again, I will rock this conference, and I will win.

I am still Sigmar Gabriel.

October 7th, 2013
SPIEGEL ONLINE +++
NEW PARLIAMENT CONSTITUTES

The 18th German Bundestag is constituted. The 619 members have been formally sworn in and introduced to their offices. For the first time in the history of the Federal Republic, the FDP will not be represented in parliament.

President Lammert re-elected


Source: Tobias Koch: Norbert Lammert, via Wikimedia

By protocol, former government minister Heinz Riesenhuber (CDU), being the oldest member of the Bundestag, opened the session. In his speech, he marked the historical distinctiveness of the new parliament and urged the parliamentarians to be careful with their power.

“The next parliament will be dominated by confrontation. Things will be said that should not have been said. Debates will be heated – maybe in a harmful way. Please, my fellow colleagues of the majority, refrain from implementing natural arrogance in your ways and habits, and please, my fellow colleagues of the majority, refrain from bitterness, harmful provocations and vitriolic language. Both states would be very easy to reach, and both states would be disastrous for our political debate.”

After his speech, Riesenhuber chaired the election of the president of the Bundestag. Incumbent President Norbert Lammert (CDU) was the only candidate. He was re-elected with 586 votes (94.7%). Although Lammert is seen as fairly conservative in his policy stances, he has earned widespread respect among all members of the Bundestag for his impartiality while presiding over the session, for his charisma and his wit, and his championship of the rights of the legislature and its members. He underscored the latter in particular his inaugural speech.

“Seldom before in the history of the Federal Republic have so few individuals held so much political power. I must remind those who now see those unprecedented powers in their own hands that the merit of the political compromise is more than a talking point in pretty speeches, that the value of unity does not only exist when it is politically profitable. And I must remind those that I will not preside over a parliament that is an extended arm of party committees, nor a parliament that is called to follow the will of the government.”

Vice-Presidential Election turns confrontational

After Lammert’s inaugural speech, the Union introduced a motion to change the allocation of vice presidents in the Bundestag’s standing orders. Up until the last election, it has been the rule that every parliamentary group is entitled to one vice president. The Union’s proposal was to grant the largest parliamentary group an additional vice president. Volker Kauder said, the proposal would “reflect the political realities and make the parliamentary procedures more efficient.” Leader of the opposition Steinmeier criticized the Union, stating that “an absolute majority does not mean that [one] can bend the rules in the way we want,” and that the motion was “an attack on the rights of the opposition.” – “The tone is set,” he concluded. The motion passed along party lines.

In the vice-presidential elections Edelgard Bulmahn (SPD) received the best result. 534 parliamentarians (86.2%) voted for her. Petra Pau (LINKE) and Claudia Roth (B’90/Grüne) were elected with 451 (72.8%) and 415 (67.0) votes, respectively. The Union’s candidates were elected with strong opposition. Peter Hinze (CDU) received 321 votes (51.9%), Johannes Singhammer (CSU) received 316 votes (51.0%).

The chancellor will be elected later this afternoon.
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Amanda Huggenkiss
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« Reply #17 on: April 23, 2020, 02:30:17 AM »

7th October, 2013

Angela

Merkel never liked these chancellor elections in the Bundestag. She would always underperform the mathematics, as there were always quite a few dissidents within her own ranks. In 2005 and 2009, the majority was stable. Still, she had been nervous when the votes were counted. This time, the majority was not even stable.

The days before, she was sure that she would reach the magic number of 310 votes. The meeting with the parliamentary Union group went well; there was not one opinion critical of her. She knew that the CSU-MPs, given the historic strength of the party in the government, would not vote against her, but she wanted to talk to them anyways, just to be sure. And everything went well. She even met with all newly elected Union-MPs and gave them an opportunity to post a handshake-with-the-chancellor-photo on their Facebook accounts.

When she entered parliament that day, she was overwhelmed by the mere size of the Union group. In the plenary hall of the Bundestag, the different parliamentary groups are visible due to architectural alterations of the seating arrangements after each election. On the left, there were three divided chunks of seats for the opposition parties. On the right, there was one monolithic block. She had never seen something like that. She took her seat in the front row, next to Volker Kauder and Gerda Hasselfeld, the parliamentary leader of the CSU-MPs within the Union.

We are so many, she thought, of course I will win. But then, the vice-presidential elections came the meeting turned chaotic.

All she could do was sit there, watch the debate, watch her candidates get embarrassingly low results. Of course, she thought, the opposition is right. The Union has no right to an additional vice president.

We are not the good ones here.

And then the voting started. The Federal President has proposed to the Bundestag that she, Angela Merkel, shall be elected. Of course he did. She had the majority. But when she sat there, eagerly waiting on the count to end, she had these horrible doubts.

We were not the good ones. Maybe we lose some moderates. No, that is impossible.

“Votes cast: 619. Invalid votes: 4. Valid votes: 615. Votes needed: 310,” Lammert declared. The votes were counted. “Number of ‘Yes’ votes: 311. Number of ‘No’ votes: 300. Number of ‘Present’ votes: 4.”

Two votes, she thought, as the Union-MPs gave her a standing ovation, two votes. She received a thousand flowers. She shook a thousand hands. She recited her oath of office. She sat on the government bench. The session was suspended for half an hour. Her cabinet came to sit on the bench. They took their oath. The session was suspended for the rest of the day. The cabinet left to get the official appointment by the Federal President.

Two votes.

RECENT POLLS +++
UNION GETS POST-ELECTION BUMP

If the 19th Bundestag was elected today, who would you vote for? (± compared to the last election)

Christian Democratic/Social Union (CDU/CSU): 45% (+2.5%)
Social Democratic Party (SPD): 24% (-1.2%)
The LEFT (LINKE) :9% (+0.7%)
Alliance ‘90/Greens (B’90/Grüne): 7% (-1.1%)
Free Democratic Party (FDP): 3% (-1.4%)
Alternative for Germany (AfD): 4% (-0.3%)
others: 8%

If you were able to vote for the chancellor directly, who would you vote for?

Angela Merkel: 67%
Sigmar Gabriel: 14%
Gregor Gysi: 5%

What is your preferred coalition?

Union alone: 35%
Union-SPD: 30%
Union-Greens: 17%
Union-Left: 2%

October 8th, 2013: CSU-Leader Horst Seehofer has reaffirmed his intention to stay as Bavarian prime minister for the whole duration of his term.

October 10th, 2013: While the death toll in Lampedusa has risen over 300, Interior Minister Friedrich (CSU) was criticized for demanding a tougher action against the influx of refugees.

October 13th, 2013: SPD-Leader Sigmar Gabriel has denied media reports of a possible coup against him and reaffirmed his intention to stay as leader of the party.

October 15th, 2013: The opposition has criticized the CDU due to a 690,000€ donation made by automobile manufacturer BMW. Several opposition politicians have made a connection between the donation and the federal government blocking stronger European rules for CO2-emissions emitted by vehicles.
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America Needs R'hllor
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« Reply #18 on: April 23, 2020, 07:28:11 AM »

Oof, the CSU got the Environmental post...

This is absolutely fantastic!
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #19 on: April 23, 2020, 07:29:03 AM »

is the CSU more, less, or equally pro-environment than the CDU?
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Amanda Huggenkiss
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« Reply #20 on: April 23, 2020, 08:21:13 AM »

Oof, the CSU got the Environmental post...

This is absolutely fantastic!

Thank you! Appreciate it.

is the CSU more, less, or equally pro-environment than the CDU?

In 2019, the CSU took a sharp turn in favor of environmental-friendly policies. But I don't think that in 2013 there were substantial differences between CDU and CSU on that issue. Every party in the Bundestag acknowledged that the government must act against climate change, with the differences between the parties on this issue being about specific measures, not on the concept of climate change as a whole.

Of course, CDU/CSU politicians opposed radical approaches on climate change and often talk about impacts of climate change policies on the economy. I think the CSU was a tiny bit more against radical environmental policies because Audi and BWM, which have their headquarters and many factories in Bavaria, are crucial for Bavaria's very good economy. So the CSU would be more interested in fighting measures that would be harsh for automobile manufacturers. But aside from that, the diffence should be marginal.

On a sidenote. Now that the timeline has covered the government formation, I think I will increase the pace a bit and leave the 2013-election behind. There are still two important events regarding the aftermath of the election, but I try to cover more events and longer time periods in the upcoming posts. Writing it requires some effort and research, but it's still fun for me. I hope those who follow this TL enjoy it, although I know that it is quite challenging if you are not that informed about German politics. Don't hesistate to ask if I wrote something that does not make sense to you. I am always grateful for your questions and your feedback.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #21 on: April 23, 2020, 08:29:23 AM »

what practical effect will the CSU be able to deliver with its portfolios in general?
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Amanda Huggenkiss
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« Reply #22 on: April 23, 2020, 09:02:07 AM »

what practical effect will the CSU be able to deliver with its portfolios in general?

Everything the government does has to be supported by the majority of the cabinet, with the chancellor having the Richtlinienkompetenz - a fancy German word for the authority to set the guidelines of government policy.

In reality, everything the government does is the result of negotiations between the parties in the coalition. Uncoordinated efforts by one minister or one party almost always result in a scandal, in which the "betrayed" coalition partner will certainly threaten to leave the coalition. That threat is very powerful, as Germans really like stable governments and will always find someone to blame in the very rare case of an early election (in fact, Germany had very few early elections because the constitution makes it very hard to call one).

But here is why it is important which party occupies which ministry. The ministers are the ones who actually propose government legislation. They put abstract political concepts into practice. They of course have an influence regarding the details of what the parties have negotiated, but one must also regard the importance of the power to propose. Government ministers will propose various things of which they know that they wont pass. You can strengthen your personal and your parties profile by putting the blame on the other party which does not let you pass your beautiful new proposal.

Of course that will be very important once we come to the refugee crisis, which lead to an unprecedented conflict between CDU and CSU. In 2016, the CSU fought hard to introduce a cap on the number of refugees, which Merkel refused. In this TL, the CSU occupies the ministry of the interior, which is the ministry that deals with basically all refugee-related policies. A dissenting opinion regarding the refugee policy has more gravitas if the one who voices it is also the one who has to write the legislation.
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« Reply #23 on: April 24, 2020, 02:35:05 AM »

October 16th, 2013: Transport Minister Alexander Dobridt (CSU) has announced that his ministry prepares a bill that would effectively introduce a road toll for foreign vehicles. The ministry had still been elaborating different mechanisms to prevent additional financial burden for German drivers. SPD General Secretary Andrea Nahles attacked the project as “fraud of highest quality.” Frank-Walter Steinmeier (SPD) called on Chancellor Merkel to clarify whether she would support the plan of the transport minister. “If yes, then it is clear that Chancellor Merkel has lied.”

October 17th, 2013: Government Spokesman Steffen Seibert has confirmed that the road toll was planned to be introduced before the next election, prompting further critique from opposition politicians.

October 18th, 2013: The parliamentary groups of SPD, LINKE and A90/Greens will propose a joint motion to introduce a chancellor question-time similar to the tradition in the British House of Commons. President Norbert Lammert (CDU) has previously supported this idea. The Bundestag already knows a question-time which includes solely previously submitted questions for government ministers and junior ministers. The Union rejects the proposal due to concerns that this procedure could be exploited for political stunts.

October 19th, 2013
Cem


69.4%. Last year, he got 83.3%. Okay, got it. Cem Özdemir had just been re-elected as co-leader of Alliance’90/ The Greens, but his result was embarrassingly low.

He didn’t really have an explanation, but he understood very well. The party needed answers. Just 8% this year. How was that possible? How did they collapse? After the Fukushima-incident, they had the momentum. Winfried Kretschman, the leader of the party in Baden-Württemberg, became the first green prime minister in the history of the Federal Republic. They gained votes left an right. In some polls, they got over 20 percent. In some polls, they even topped the SPD. And now it’s just 8 percent?

I’m as angry as everybody, Cem thought, but it’s not my fault. The campaign had been a mess. As top candidates, the members had elected a moderate, Katrin Göring-Eckard, and a progressive, Jürgen Trittin. Göring-Eckard was not remotely ready for the job. She was too weak, too bland, nobody knew who she was. Trittin was a brand, but it was not a good brand. In the summer, news broke that in the 80s, he approved of a local election platform which questioned the illegality of sexual relationships with minors. The story was blown up, everybody knew that, but it had hurt the campaign nonetheless. And there was another problem with Trittin. Özdemir didn’t like him. He was tall, his voice was deep and he spoke like a statesman, but he always sounded as if he was talking from a moral high ground, as if it was your moral duty to overthrow the system.

But people don’t want to overthrow the system, and they don’t want moralizing lectures. Özdemir was a moderate. He wanted the Greens to be able to form coalitions with the SPD as well as with the CDU. He wanted to be foreign minister, that was his dream job. And if the Union had not gained the absolute majority, he would have fought hard for the Black/Green coalition.

“They call us the “party of bans”. Ban meat. Ban cars. That is what the people out there perceive,” he exclaimed. “We know that this is not what our platform is. But that is what our election campaign might have communicated. I don’t want the people to vote Green because we are the moral, the true choice. I want people to vote Green because we are the rational choice.”

Vote green, because, science, right? That was a compelling argument for Özdemir. Don’t talk about what the Greens want. Talk about what the Germans want. Take their concerns seriously. Be approachable. He himself was an approachable figure. He was known for his sideburns. A popular late night host called him “Turkish Elvis”. He was the son of Turkish immigrants, but he had a thick Swabian dialect. Swabians were known for certain values. Cleanliness, thrift, thoroughness. Don’t spend more than you have. Be realistic. For that reason, Winfried Kretschmann was the green prime minister in Baden-Württemberg. Swabia is part of Baden-Württemberg.

So, why shouldn’t the Greens become more moderate? After all, the Germans re-elected a moderate chancellor with a resounding victory just a month ago.

That was the path they had do take. That he was sure of.

October 22nd, 2013: One month after the regional election, Hesse has still to form a government. Neither an SPD-Green nor a CDU-FDP government has won a majority.

October 23nd, 2013: A growing number of soldiers report complaints. The Bundeswehr is criticized for inefficient communication and insufficient material stocks. Defense Minister Reinhard Brandl (CSU) announced that the Defense ministry would request more funds in the next federal budget.

October 23th, 2013
Rolf

Three weeks before the SPD’s party conference, Rolf Mützenich received a call from Andrea Nahles. The time was running out. He was nervous.

“We are going public today,” she stated.

“But Sigmar Gabriel has not even ruled out running for re-election.”

“It doesn’t matter,” she said, “we’re doing it now.”
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« Reply #24 on: April 25, 2020, 01:58:30 AM »

October 23nd, 2013: Speculations arose that Rolf Mützenich, MP for Cologne, might run for the leadership of the SPD.

October 24nd, 2013: Chancellor Merkel has called US-President Barack Obama amid allegations that her cell phone was surveilled by the NSA. While the US government denied the claims, German government spokesperson Steffen Seibert stated that, if true, such practices would constitute a “fundamental breach of trust” between the two countries.

October 24nd, 2013: A growing number of SPD-politicians and parliamentarians came out in support for a possible Mützenich-leadership, among those deputy leaders Klaus Wowereit and Hannelore Kraft, Prime Minister Maly Dreyer, and former SPD-leaders Franz Müntzefering and Kurt Beck. SPD-Leader Sigmar Gabriel affirmed that he plans to run for re-election.

October 25nd, 2013: Vice-Chancellor Hans-Peter Friedrich called for the United States to apologize for the surveillance of Merkel’s cell phone.

October 25nd, 2013: Rolf Mützenich has officially announced his bid for the SPD-leadership. “More than ever, the SPD must be the party for the hardworking people. Because for too long, the hardworking people have not been able to reap the fruits of their work. We must re-establish the promise of advancement that this country has benefited from.”

October 26nd, 2013: SPD-Leader Sigmar Gabriel urged the federal government to halt all negotiations for the EU-US trade agreement TTIP. Gregor Gysi (LINKE) called for Chancellor Merkel to declare the US-Ambassador John B. Emerson as a persona non grata.

October 27th, 2013
Sigmar

“Be honest with me,” he asked. “What is your assessment?”

“And you want me to be really honest with you?” Martin Schulz asked.

“Totally honest,” Gabriel told him.

“My assessment is that he will be our next party-leader.”

October 27nd, 2013: Martin Schulz, president of the European parliament, has come out in support of Rolf Mützenich’s leadership bid.

October 28nd, 2013: The opposition parties (SPD, Greens, LINKE) support the installation of an investigative committee regarding the NSA-scanal, following the news that Angela Merkel has been under surveillance by the NSA since 2002.

October 29nd, 2013: The Union parties have signaled that they will not oppose the installation of an investigative committee.

October 30th, 2013: Sigmar Gabriel has announced his intention to step down as party leader and expressed his support for Rolf Mützenich: “The right man at the right time.”

November 1st, 2013: US-tech companies have urged the United States Senate to restrict government surveillance. Secretary of State John Kerry has admitted that government surveillance “sometimes goes too far.”

November 2nd, 2013: Vice-Chancellor Hans-Peter Friedrich (CSU) stated that the federal government is willing to talk with American whistle-blower Edward Snowden, stating that “all information available is useful information.” Thomas Opperman (SPD) wants Snowden to testify in the Bundestag. Snowden currently resides in Moscow.

RECENT POLLS +++
MAJORITY OF GERMANS DOES NOT FEEL THREATENED BY THE NSA

Are you concerned about possibly having been a subject of NSA-surveillance?

Yes, very: 14%
Yes, somewhat: 25%
No, not really: 37%
No, not at all: 24%

If the 19th Bundestag was elected today, who would you vote for? (± compared to the previous poll)

Christian Democratic/Social Union (CDU/CSU): 41% (-4%)
Social Democratic Party (SPD): 26% (+2%)
The LEFT (LINKE): 9% (no change)
Alliance ‘90/Greens (B’90/Grüne): 8% (+1%)
Free Democratic Party (FDP): 5% (+2)
Alternative for Germany (AfD): 4% (no change)
others: 9%

If you were able to vote for the chancellor directly, who would you vote for? (± compared to the previous poll)

Angela Merkel: 70% (+3)
Sigmar Gabriel: 14% (no change)
Gregor Gysi: 4% (-1)

What do you think of the road toll?

Approve: 39%
Disapprove: 52%

Do you approve of Sigmar Gabriel’s decision to step down as leader of the SPD?

Approve: 72%
Disapprove: 14%
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